NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. A swing pass to the third-string fullback can heavily alter the leader boards. Showdown can be a fun way to enjoy a Prime Time game, or it can be an entire DFS portfolio. No matter the reason for playing, fortune favors the bold, and this article will never tell you a player is off-limits; even the third-string fullback. There are some cases where a great play will be so highly owned that their upside isn't worth losing the opportunity to be contrarian by fading them.
This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head lineups use median projections but a little variation goes a long way towards not getting duplicated.
Game Strategy
In an alternate universe where the Chiefs are still out there running "Wasp", and making spectacular highlights, this game would be a dream from a tournament perspective. The Chiefs would be highly owned, and the Raiders would be underrated. Stacking four or five Raiders with one or two Chiefs would be optimal contrarian construction. Unfortunately these Chiefs are far from spectacular, and their average ownership should reflect that. On the other hand, the Raiders offense has been productive, backed by a surprisingly effective Derek Carr. Each team will be similarly owned, and with a 52 point over/under, this is truly a "play whomever you want" sort of slate. Leaving an above average amount of salary, and getting unique at Captain will be the name of the game.
Captain Consideration
Chiefs Offense
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes II - Captain or Flex
Patrick Mahomes II is destined to carry heavy ownership on name alone, but he has reached a point where he does not deserve it. Along with not deserving his high ownership, he doesn't deserve such a high price tag either. At $12,400, he is a full $2,400 more than Derek Carr. Mahomes is setting career lows in basically every statistical category in 2021, and if ever a time to fade him entirely, it may be this slate. While impossible to completely omit Mahomes from the player pool, it will be more important than ever to get unique with how he's played. His ownership projection near game-time is going to dictate how to attack the entire slate. If he gets a well deserved drop in ownership, then he will be an excellent play. If his ownership comes with no discount for his recent performance, it's a good time to leverage the field by being underweight, or fading him entirely.
Running Back
Darrel Williams - Flex
Darrel Williams gets one more week to solidify his role in the Kansas City offense. Despite taking a slight dip in the snap department, Williams saw his second highest total opportunities in week 9. Since Williams took over the backfield in the absence of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, he has seen at least four targets each game. He remains a contrarian way to stack Mahomes. As ownership floods in on Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce, Williams ends up overlooked. His ownership remains around 30% each slate despite projecting for nearly 20 touches. He fits well paired with Mahomes in lineups with four Raiders.
Receiver
Travis Kelce - Captain or Flex
Kelce is another player who deserves an ownership dip that he likely won't get. Everyone's fear is missing the ship on the Chiefs triumphant return. Instead of acknowledging that this may just be who the Chiefs are right now given a 9 game sample size, people will gravitate towards what they could be. Kelce could certainly return to form in this game, and playing none of the Chiefs "Big-3" would not be a productive decision. If having to choose between Kelce, and Hill, then taking the $1,000 discount on Kelce might be worth the savings. As with any Chiefs Showdown slates, rostering Kelce, and Hill as the only Chiefs without Mahomes is a viable strategy.
Tyreek Hill - Captain or Flex
There is no player in the NFL that is more of a nightmare to fade than Hill. His sky-high ceiling makes him an excellent play on Showdown slates, but he is not cheap, and his ownership won't be low. He is priced $400 higher than Derek Carr, and projects similarly. In order to play Hill, and remain unique, one route would be to roster him as the only Chief. Hill is essentially game-script-proof, and playing him in this way covers multiple bases.
Mecole Hardman - Flex
Hardman seems under-owned every showdown slate, but he consistently shows otherwise by under-producing. His ownership is low, and he's a lock for at least five targets in a high-scoring game. Relative to price, and ownership, he is a much worse play than Kenyan Drake, and Bryan Edwards, but can fit in some Chiefs builds. Hardman works well in lineups with four Chiefs that exclude Hill.
Other Targets -
Derrick Gore - Flex
Derrick Gore has simmered down since his two touchdown performance two weeks ago. He is still only $1,000, and projects for around 5 touches. With so much anticipated ownership around the Chiefs receivers, the running backs are reasonable pivots. Gore, and Williams are viable in the same lineup.
Josh Gordon - Flex
Josh Gordon is a pure dart throw. His bare minimum price tag makes him worth mentioning given his recent snap share. The past two weeks he has played 40%, and 29% of the snaps respectively. He is getting at least one target per game. If he can get a decent chunk of yardage on his one target this week he is worth rostering to free up salary for the higher priced players; especially for two quarterback builds.
Raiders Offense
Quarterback
Derek Carr - Captain or Flex
Derek Carr has been the more impressive quarterback of the two in this game. Imagine what the odds of that were prior to the season. None-the-less, Carr is still producing at a high level even with much turmoil surrounding the organization. In his first week without Henry Ruggs, he still posted nearly 300 yards passing. The Raiders are top ten in passing percentage on the year, which seemed to continue even after the loss of one of their primary receivers. With $2,400 savings, and similar median projection, Carr is the better play than Mahomes on this slate. Lineups with both quarterbacks are viable with so many cheap options available.
Running Back
Josh Jacobs - Flex
Josh Jacobs is in a 50/50 timeshare with Kenyan Drake, however, Jacobs is seeing more opportunity on his snaps. He is also the clear goal line back. The price difference between Jacobs, and Drake isn't justified. Jacobs needs at least one touchdown to produce a viable week. He has a safe floor, but his ceiling is low relative to his price. Over the past two weeks Jacobs has seen increased target volume. If that continues, his price will be more justified.
Kenyan Drake - Flex
Kenyan Drake is exactly half the price of Jacobs, while seeing around the same snap share. Drake is seeing his production come through the passing game, which is important for a full-ppr site like Draftkings. Last week Drake saw 8 targets in a loss to the Giants. The game script has the chance to be similar this week if the Chiefs can find some semblance of their former selves.
Receiver
Darren Waller - Captain or Flex
Darren Waller was another benifactor of a pass heavy script last week, with 11 targets. He is in the game on virtually every offensive snap, and is the first read in the redzone. While he does have a lower median projection than Kelce, and Hill, he is cheaper. He is also projected to be less owned than both players. While Waller is expected to carry plenty of ownership, he fits in nicely with lineups leaning heavily on Las Vegas, which will be less owned as a whole.
Hunter Renfrow - Captain or Flex
Hunter Renfrow's price seems egregious at first glance. He is priced right around both starting running backs, and just under Waller. He actually has a similar median projection than all three of them. Based on his price, he should go low owned. The Chiefs defense is susceptible to all forms of receivers, but Renfrow should be particularly successful out of the slot.
Bryan Edwards - Flex
Bryan Edwards has done virtually nothing with his increased opportunities in 2021, but he is seeing about 4 targets a game. He also profiles as a redzone threat. Edwards should be the top wide receiver for the Raiders after the release of Ruggs, but he hasn't lived up to that role. He's playing over 90% of the snaps, and is only $5,400, so he is worth getting in some lineups where he fits.
Other Targets
Zay Jones - Flex
Zay Jones is the first punt play in captain consideration thus far this season. He played 96% of the snaps last week and was targeted 4 times. At only $600, he should have a shot at multiple catches, and has the ability to score a long touchdown. A $600 player with Captain viability is important with so many high priced options projecting well in this game. The addition of DeSean Jackson could hinder Jones, but Jackson has only been in Las Vegas for a handful of practices.
Desean Jackson - Flex
Jackson's snap share is up in the air but he will be available for Sunday's game. He is priced at $4,400 which will make essentially unowned. A long completion from Carr is not out of the realm of possibility. Jackson may not have been getting much opportunity in LA, but he did prove he's still got "it" with a 120 yard game in week 5.
