Generally, the most coveted player in fantasy football is a starting running back. By definition, there are only 32 of them. In most leagues, managers have to play two backs each week and, if there's a flex, people will try to start three. In a 12-team league, that means there are 36 potential starting spots.
It's simple supply and demand. And the supply of starting running backs is short.
So it's advantageous to acquire starting running backs. And it's potentially devastating to lose one to injury or the bench. Injuries can't be avoided, but you can move away from backs who are most likely to lose their jobs.
The Footballguys staff gives their thoughts on which starting running backs you'll want to avoid.
Jeff Haseley
There are quite a few running backs who could lose their job at some point this season, and it may be sooner than we think. Teams who drafted a rookie back are among those who could see an early change. The one I'm suggesting is Melvin Gordon in Denver. Rookie Javonte Williams is the future for the Broncos, and their deep stable of backs may mean Gordon is expendable. Denver would save $2.4M if they released him outright. They still would have depth with Mike Boone and Royce Freeman on the roster as well.
Matt Waldman
Myles Gaskin. A scatback with good vision and strong receiving skills, Gaskin lacks top speed and power. He fit well in the previous regime's offense and served as a pleasant surprise for the fantasy community. The new offensive coaching staff sought out Malcolm Brown, who does everything Gaskin can, is a strong pass protector, and is far more powerful.
The fantasy community regards Brown as "just a guy" because they are too enamored with top-end speed. Outside of top-end speed, which a back gets to use maybe 5-7 times a year with the ball in his hand, Brown had some of the most impressive metrics of his draft class. L.A. kept Brown around last year because it didn't know what it would get from Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson after releasing Todd Gurley.
Brown will impress during training camp and push for an increasing amount of playing time this year. He could wind up the teams' leader in rushing touchdowns and the close-out back, who is most likely to earn 80-100 rushing yards in games.
Phil Alexander
I'll second Gaskin. He's the quintessential dead-zone running back (Rounds 3-6 in 12-team drafts) who is doomed to produce like a Round 10 pick when it's all said and done.
Malcolm Brown is one of the least-sexy names in fantasy football, but he's one of those guys NFL teams love. As Matt noted, he never stopped earning playing time for the Rams despite the team investing early draft capital at the position. In 2019, the Lions tried to steal him away with a restricted free agent offer. And ultimately, he was targeted by Miami when he finally hit unrestricted free agency.
Think through that last part. The Dolphins obviously needed running back depth entering the offseason, yet nearly passed on the position entirely in the NFL Draft (they eventually picked Gerrid Doaks in Round 7). They did nothing beyond prioritizing Brown in free agency, which should tell us everything we need to know about the team's plans for him.
The probability of a committee backfield in Miami is greater than fantasy gamers are currently calculating. Drafting Gaskin ahead of wide receivers going in the same range, such as Jerry Jeudy, Devonta Smith, and D.J. Chark, to name a few, has mistake written all over it.
Ryan Weise
It's hard to say who the actual starter is, but Chase Edmonds sits atop the Arizona depth chart right now. If James Conner can stay healthy, he is far more suited for a starter role than Edmonds. In three years in the league, Edmonds has just three games with 10+ carries. Conner has 26 such games over that same span. Edmonds should still be a decent fantasy asset based on passing down work, but Conner is built for a bigger workload. While Conner's injury history means he is unlikely to see his Pittsburgh-level volume, he is more likely to end up as a traditional starter before long for the Cardinals.
Andy Hicks
Lots of good names mentioned already, but I am going to answer Mike Davis. When looking at the Falcons backfield, it is clear there is no one currently there to challenge him to start the season. A veteran, a trade, or another team's roster cut is more likely to be the bigger threat.
Davis was great in relief of Christian McCaffrey in Carolina last year, but he got tired quickly. It also must be remembered his journey through the NFL before that. There are no guarantees he fits with what Atlanta wants to do or whether he has the endurance to handle a workload after last year's use.
By season's end, Mike Davis will be a case of "I knew it," but the guy who pushes him down or out is pure guesswork at this stage. Training camp and preseason may help a little.
Chad Parsons
Javonte Williams vs. Melvin Gordon is one of the bigger depth charts to watch independent of an injury-shifting opportunity. I would not consider Chase Edmonds a clear starter entering the season, so he is excluded from the conversation. If considering James Conner, a multi-year NFL starter on the depth chart with Edmonds, a tweener-sized back yet to accrue 100 carries in any singular season, the long shot that's a mistake. Myles Gaskin vs. Malcolm Brown is the one I am watching the closest. Brown is very fantasy affordable as well. I agree with the sentiment Phil addressed of Miami with a depth chart need, passing basically through the entire draft. The notable addition was Brown, a savvy veteran (Matt outlined well) who has been consistently discounted because he is not overly fast during his career.
Jason Wood
It’s Melvin Gordon. The Broncos coaching staff seems to be looking for a reason to move on, and Javonte Williams is the three-down package who can make it easy to displace Gordon with a strong preseason.
Sigmund Bloom
There have been some excellent answers to this question, and the fantasy hive mind is tuned into these possibilities - ADP reflects the precariousness of these running backs spot on the depth chart. In Gordon's case, his ADP is well behind Williams. There are three situations where the starter is still being drafted as an entrenched starter, and usually in the first three rounds of fantasy drafts, where there is a possibility that they are overtaken on the depth chart without an injury:
DAndre Swift, Det - Swift is more physically talented than Jamaal Williams by all measures, but he isn't as experienced as Williams. A new coaching regime has already expressed that they will employ the "hot hand" approach, so they are open to using Williams more than Swift if performance dictates it. We are probably rightfully assuming that Swift will be a hotter hand than Williams, but blown assignments by Swift or more sound all-around play from Williams could make the current ADP spread look unwise in hindsight.
Miles Sanders, Phi - The new coaching regime in Philadelphia is willing to give Sanders a chance to prove that he can be a three-down lead back, but Sanders has to prove it with disciplined running and execution in the passing game. Fifth-round pick Kenneth Gainwell should start in the Nyheim Hines role in Nick Sirianni's offense. Still, if Sanders' play causes frustration, Gainwell could get a chance to show more, and Kerryon Johnson can also provide more consistent, if less flashy, play than Sanders.
Aaron Jones, GB - Jones should get the majority of passing down snaps in any event. Still, A.J. Dillon could show enough development in his second camp and come off of his first full offseason to usurp most early-down snaps and touches in a thunder and lightning approach.
Victoria Geary
Mike Davis is the easy answer here, as we saw him fall off a cliff in the second half of the season after taking over for Christian McCaffrey. He will likely not be able to handle the full workload.
Miles Sanders is a less obvious choice. He had the second-worst catch rate in the league among running backs, catching only 56% of his targets and dropping eight passes along the way (tied for most). The Eagles' coaching staff exhibited their lack of trust in Sanders this off-season with every move they made. They selected the best pass-catching running back of the NFL Draft in Kenneth Gainwell, resigned Jordan Howard, and added Kerryon Johnson to the backfield. Couple these moves with quarterback Jalen Hurts taking away carries and goal-line looks, and Sanders likely disappoints many fantasy managers taking him as their RB2.
James Brimacombe
Melvin Gordon is the quick answer for me, with the team spending up in the draft on Javonte Williams and bringing in Mike Boone via free agency. With the Broncos not being able to bring in a more stable quarterback, they could be treading water in 2021, and if that is the case, there will be no need for Gordon as they will want to see what they have in Williams.
Jordan McNamara
I'm not sure Devin Singletary qualifies as a current "starting RB," but Matt Breida is hunting that starting job. As Sigmund likes to say, there has been a "steady drumbeat" about Breida this offseason. A resurrection of his 2018 form, when he valiantly played on one leg, in Buffalo this season could change the face of the Buffalo offense and hit from deep in fantasy.
While Melvin Gordon may lose his job, I don't think it is early. The day two rookie career arc usually takes about a half-season before taking over the job. J.K. Dobbins, Jonathan Taylor, DAndre Swift, and Cam Akers fit this mold last year while being superior to Javonte Williams and behind worse incumbents than Melvin Gordon.
Pat Fitzmaurice
Mike Davis is going in the late fourth or early fifth round of most drafts, which seems like a colossal reach. All due credit to this limited journeyman for scoring six touchdowns in four games immediately after the Christian McCaffrey injury last year and shouldering a big workload for the Panthers all season, but Davis has been a career backup for a reason. He has a career average of 3.7 yards-per-carry, and he isn't magically going to become a more efficient performer in his late 20s. The Atlanta backfield is going to be a mess. It isn't hard to imagine three or four Falcons rushing for more than 300 yards and no one rushing for more than 650. Don't bet on Davis to remain Atlanta's lead back for long.
Ben Cummins
I could take the easy route here and say Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman (If Coleman is even considered the starter) because I absolutely want Trey Sermon and Michael Carter on my rosters come the second half of the season. And going into this, I fully expected my answer to be Melvin Gordon, as I believe Javonte Williams has all the makings of a league winner. Williams was drafted in the second round, landing in an ideal spot as the Broncos have a solid roster and are in win-now mode whether they should be or not (See the addition of Teddy Bridgewater, who I believe will start the majority of the games this season). Williams was a standout producer at a young age in North Carolina while sharing a backfield with the talented and aforementioned Michael Carter. His tape is tantalizing as he reminds me of a young LeSean McCoy. However, would it surprise you to learn Melvin Gordon will play the entirety of the 2021 season at only 28? Because that surprised me when I looked it up. So while the fantasy community wants Williams to take over towards the end of the season a la Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, and Cam Akers in 2020, there’s a decent chance we’re a year too early thanks to Gordon playing and doing enough to block Williams’ path for significant upside.
Thus, my true answer here is Chase Edmonds because I don’t believe James Conner is dust. Betting on a younger talent like Javonte Williams is the smarter bet here, but I see Conner's high-end outcome being greater even if it has a lower chance of hitting. Conner joins an extremely fantasy-friendly rushing Cardinals’ offense, replacing Kenyan Drake and his 270 vacated opportunities from 2020. Conner has most certainly not proven he can stay healthy over his four-year career, but if he’s able to stay healthy for just one season at only age 26, there is plenty of upside as Conner has proven he can be a workhorse when on the field. And while I’m actually a big fan of Chase Edmonds, it’s important to note his 97 carries last season were a career high, and he only scored one rushing touchdown. Edmonds’ most exciting path to significant upside is through the passing game, yet Conner is a proven receiver out of the backfield in his own right. This season, Conner has multiple paths to relevancy, especially if he takes over Drake's goal-line rushing role last year since Kliff Kingsbury loves to run when the Cardinals get in close. And the best part is Conner’s ADP is extremely palatable. Drafting him around the 10th round bakes in way more upside than downside, and boy do I love to take those home run swings.
