Week 18 Rushing Matchups

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Top 5 Rushing Matchups

Baltimore vs Pittsburgh

The health of Lamar Jackson continues to be a big question heading into this week against the Steelers in what is a must win game after losing five straight games. The Ravens are going to need some help as they need the Jaguars to beat the Colts to have a chance at the playoffs. Without Jackson, the Ravens rushing attack has been inconsistent although Devonta Freeman did look much better last week as he had 76 yards on 14 carries compared to just 17 yards on 6 carries the week before.

The Steelers rushing defense looked better last week holding Nick Chubb to just 58 yards, but he mysteriously only had 12 carries in what ended up being curious play calling from the Browns. This remains a defense that has major holes on defense particularly at the linebacker position as Devin Bush and Joe Schobert continue to be defensive liabilities on defense as the Steelers are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game on the season (117), and the most since Week 10 even with the strong performance last week (143). This is a defense that is going to have to correct its recent form especially if Lamar Jackson is able to suit up as Devin Bush and company will be forced to make plays against the run-heavy Ravens offense.

Tennessee at Houston

The Titans leaned on D’Onta Foreman heavily last week against the Dolphins on their way to a 34-3 victory. Foreman had an astounding 26 carries for 132 yards and was doing his best Derrick Henry impression as the team hopes to get Henry back for the playoffs. The Titans went run-heavy last week which is their preference as a team running the ball 36 times in total. The Titans are likely going to lean heavily on their rushing attack once again in utilizing Foreman in a role very similar to Henry in anticipation of getting Henry potentially back for the playoffs.

Houston’s run defense has struggled all season. On the season, they’re allowing the most rushing yards per game to opponents 121 and the second-most fantasy points per game. Last week, they could not stop Elijah Mitchell who ran for 119 yards on 21 carries and was seemingly able to do just about whatever he wanted which was the third time in five games that the Texans have allowed over 110 yards to opposing running backs as Jonathan Taylor ran for 143 and Rashaad Penny had 137 both scoring two rushing touchdowns. This is a defense that has one of the worst linebacking units in football as Christian Kirksey has not panned out as they were forced to move him from outside linebacker into the middle with the release of Zach Cunningham earlier this season.

Buffalo vs NY Jets

Buffalo’s rushing attack has been consolidated heavily into Devin Singletary who has 22 or more carries in two of his last three game and has out touched Zack Moss 57 to 18 over the last three weeks. Singletary has been highly effective scoring four touchdowns over those last three games while topping 100 yards in two of them. Singletary is an efficient running back who does not have the breakaway ability of some other running backs but is a downhill runner taking what the defense gives him. This is an offense that is greatly assisted by Josh Allen’s dual threat forcing the defense to consistently be aware of where Allen is at all time and respecting both of his arm and legs.

The Jets run defense has been better over the last two weeks holding the Buccaneers to just 62 yards rushing and the Jaguars to 91 yards which is both far better than their season average, but it is difficult to classify them as anything other than a porous defense based on the first 14 games of the season. On the year, they are still allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the most fantasy points per game at 33.8, with the next closest being 27.5, and they’ve allowed a staggering 27 touchdowns to opposing running backs. This is a defense that if you can get past their defensive line, which while league average is by far and away the best unit on this team, you’re going to have a huge day. The linebacking unit of the Jets is absolutely abysmal led by C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams while the secondary greatly misses Marcus Maye as Ashtyn Davis and Elijah Riley have both been abysmal against the run this season.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Week 18 is all about motivation, and the Colts simply could not have any additional motivation than what they already have. It is as simple as defeat the Jaguars in a game in which they are 15 point favorites and they are in the playoffs. Week 18 should be an exclamation point on what has been an MVP caliber season for Jonathan Taylor who has now ran for over 100 yards in seven of his last eight contests. The Colts are also getting Eric Fisher, Braden Smith, Quenton Nelson and Ryan Kelly back this week all of whom have missed a few games this season.

The Jaguars run defense is one that started the year strong but has fallen on hard times recently. Over the last two weeks, Michael Carter and Rhamondre Stevenson both topped 100 yards as the Jaguars gave up 50 points to the Patriots last week while giving up four rushing touchdowns. Motivation has to be in question for the Jaguars as their season has gone incredibly poorly. Both Myles Jack and Damien Wilson have struggled stopping the run this season while outside of Josh Allen the defensive line simply has not made enough plays to consistently stop the run. This is a game in which this defensive front seven has to take on an offensive line that Footballguys expert Matt Bitonti has ranked as the second-best offensive line in football.

Green Bay at Detroit

The Packers are in an interesting spot this week particularly when it comes to how much they will play their starters this week. Green Bay has the number one seed in the NFC locked up and they will have a bye which often can lead to teams playing their starters for at least a portion of the game. It seems likely that A.J. Dillon will play this week as the team continues to develop the second-year player. Dillon looked great last week as he had 63 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 14 carries as he continues to be a physical running back with enough athleticism to cause significant problems for opposing defenses.

The Lions are a roller coaster of a team as they’ve been competitive in a number of games this season including defeating the Vikings and blowing out the Cardinals, and then other times throughout the year they look completely lost. Over the last five weeks, the Lions have lost by 22 points to Seattle and 28 points to Denver allowing 197 and 184 rushing yards. The other three games over the last five, they beat Arizona by 18 points allowing just 98 yards rushing and lost to Atlanta by 4 holding them to just 42 yards rushing and beat Minnesota holding them to just 90 yards rushing. Needless to say the run defense is critical to the success of this team. The Lions last week looked clueless without Alex Anzalone as replacement Anthony Pittman looked completely lost and Jalen Reeves-Maybin is not an NFL caliber starting linebacker so far throughout his career. The interior of the defensive line for the Lions is also a problem as Michael Brockers and Nick Williams have both struggled this season at keeping blockers off of opponents making the linebacker job much harder than it otherwise should be.

Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups

Carolina at Tampa Bay

Carolina has seemingly packed it in for the rest of the season as they have now scored 14 points or less over their last three games and have no offensive identity to speak of. Over the last three weeks, Carolina has less than 50 yards in each game rushing from their running back positions as most of their rushing upside has come from Cam Newton who will not start this game as Sam Darnold will once again start.

After seemingly being a dominant run-stopping unit that had only allowed a total of 42 yards over the last two games heading into last week the Buccaneers struggled against the Jets allowing 138 yards rushing which was by far the most on the season to a team that is in the bottom 10 in terms of rushing offense. The Buccaneers had to adjust to a few key injuries as they continue to try to find an identity without LaVonte David, Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Sean Murphy-Bunting. Tampa should bet Pierre-Paul and Barrett back this week which is great news for their front seven. This remains a defense that still has a dominant defensive line led by Vita Vea, William Gholston, and Ndamakong Suh. While we shouldn’t overreact it’ll remain to be seen how this defense can continue to play without their signal caller in Lavonte David.

Houston vs Tennessee

The Texans have seemingly given an audition to Rex Burkhead over the last three games and so far it has seen mixed results. While the volume has been there topping 16 carries in each of those three games, he has topped 50 yards just once albeit it was a breakout performance against the Chargers as he ran for 149 yards on a 22 carry performance. Burkhead is a one-cut running back with limited skills in his ninth season, but David Johnson’s ineffectiveness has given the Texans seemingly no choice. This is an overall offense that is dead last in the NFL in rushing yards per game with just 85.

The Titans run defense this season has been one of the best turnaround stories on the season. Since Week 9, the Titans are allowing just 52 yards per game which is by far the best in the NFL, compared to a good defense in their first 8 weeks, allowing 77 yards, but not nearly a dominant defense that they’ve been over the second half. A big reason for this has been the addition of Zach Cunningham who the Titans intentionally know his limited skillset and do not ask him to do too much as they have the safeties Amani Hooker and Keith Byard to clean up anything that Cunningham may have missed. Rex Burkhead and David Johnson ran for a combined 1.8 yards-per-carry in their first matchup this season.

Jacksonville vs Indianapolis

The Jaguars’ rushing attack is a bottom-tier unit at this point as they have a quarterback and passing game that have struggled mightily moving the ball, a defense that gives up a ton of points which negatively hurts the game script, and are now down to their third-string running back. Dare Ogunbowale has not looked overly impressive in his time as a starter as he’s averaging just 3.3 yard-per-carry on the year. The problem is that Ryquell Armstead the backup had only six carries and his durability may be in question due to dealing with Myocarditis after having a lengthy battle with Covid-19 which kept him out of all of the 2020 season and most of the 2021 season.

The Colts have quietly been one of the best run defenses for most of the season and continue to show that they are just a solid unit. On the season, the Colts are allowing the 5^th-fewest rushing yards per game as they are built around two key superstars in DeForest Buckner and Darius Leonard. Having a player of that caliber at each of the defensive line and linebacker positions is such a benefit for helping the rest of the players around them which the Colts have been able to capitalize on. This is a defense that has shown that they are capable of giving up some major games to running backs as Leonard Fournette, Elijah Mitchell, and Derrick Henry all topped 100 yards, but most weeks are a complete lockdown unit.

Atlanta vs New Orleans

Atlanta’s rushing offense has fallen off considerably after having a spark from Cordarelle Patterson, they are back to a timeshare with Mike Davis and Patterson after some of Patterson’s spark has faded as he is averaging just 2.2 yards-per-carry over the last three games. Davis has been somewhat better averaging 4.3 yards-per-carry but on just 7 carries per game as he is still the secondary option in Atlanta. The Falcons have struggled with their run blocking for most of the season receiving just a C grade from Matt Bitonti which is tied for the 6^th worst run-blocking unit in the NFL this season.

New Orleans run defense has been the one consistent in their team as their offense has been a non-factor for most of the season, while their pass defense has been inconsistent at times throughout the season, but their run defense has continued to be one of the top units in the NFL. It’s been over a year since a running back has topped 100 yards against this Saints defense as we have to go back to Miles Sanders in Week 14 of 2020 to be the last one to do it. This season only one running back has topped 75 yards as the Saints are allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game. This is a defense that has the best front seven in football led by a defensive line that is dominant with Marcus Davenport, Cameron Jordan, David Onyemata and Shy Tuttle being the space eater up the middle. This makes the lives of Pete Werner and Demario Davis incredibly easy not having to consistently shed blockers each week as they have both been fantastic. In the secondary, Malcolm Jenkins has had his issues with coverage but continues to be one of the better run stopping safeties in the NFL.

NY Giants vs Washington

The Giants offensively over the last three weeks have been the worst offensive team in the NFL and things are about to get worse. Mike Glennon has been ruled out for this week leaving Jake Fromm as the lone quarterback on this roster along with Brian Lewarke who was on the practice squad after playing in the Spring League for the TSL Alphas. Needless to say this is not going to help the rushing attack for the Giants this week. Saquon Barkley has had an up and down season but is coming off of his best performance of the year topping 100 yards against the Chicago Bears while seeing 21 carries. He is limited in practice this week with an ankle injury and with the Giants seemingly having nothing to play for, it will be something to monitor throughout the week whether he plays this week. The good news for the Giants this week is that they should get right tackle Nate Solder back from the Covid list.

In what will be the last game of the Football Team’s existence as they will be officially getting a new name in February, this has been a disappointing year for a team that had some level of expectations. If there is an MVP for a team that is 6-10, it would be the defensive line specifically led by Jonathan Allen who is playing at an All-Pro level even without Chase Young and Montez Sweat for most of the second-half of the season. This continues to be a run-stopping unit that has allowed just one running back to top 75 yards all season which was Miles Sanders back in Week 15. Since then, the defense has rebounded nicely holding Dallas and Philadelphia both under 100 yards rushing per game. This is a unit that is tricky in they get extremely big playing three defensive tackles in Matt Ioannidis, Jonathan Allen, and Daron Payne and just clog up the defensive line leaving nowhere for opponents to run.