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Top 5 Rushing Matchups

Tampa Bay vs NY Jets

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going through an offensive transition with the absence of Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans. Ronald Jones II looked fully capable of taking over the lead role in the absence of Fournette, with a 22-touch performance in a win over Carolina in Week 16. Ke’Shawn Vaughn has contributed the past two weeks since Fournette has been injured, but the leading role in the backfield should belong to Jones as a rusher, particularly with Tampa as a big favorite against the Jets. This remains an offense that is going to be a threat regardless of who is running behind the vaunted offensive line which remains one of the top units in football led by Tristan Wirfs, Ali Marpet, and Donovan Smith.

There is not much more to say about the Jets run defense that has not already been said in the first 16 weeks of this season. The Jets have given up the second-most rushing yards on the season (141.3 per game), the most rushing attempts (471), and most rushing touchdowns (27). Last week, even with an injury to James Robinson early in the game, the Jaguars were able to top 130 yards while finding the end zone through a combination of Dare Ogunbowale, Trevor Lawrence, and Tavon Austin. The Jets are a defense that is already lacking talent, but may be without some additional players this week due to Covid as Quinnen Williams and Jarrod Davis were added to the Covid list as the Jets currently have 17 players on the list. With no Davis, the Jets lose their best run-stopping linebacker and more will be placed on the shoulders of C.J. Mosley who has been one of the worst linebackers in football this season.

Denver at LA Chargers

The Denver offense had one of their worst performances of the season as they were unable to get anything going on the ground as Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams had a combined 3 yards on 14 carries. This was a situation where the Broncos were unable to throw the ball and the Raiders simply did not respect the pass as they loaded up the box to take away the rushing attack of the Broncos. Drew Lock is expected to get another start this week which is not a great sign for the Broncos as Lock threw for 153 yards and posed no real downfield threat to the Raiders last week.

The LA Chargers run defense was trending in the right direction heading into last week, and it seemingly collapsed as Rex Burkhead had a career day against this defense rushing for 149 yards and two touchdowns. The Chargers have now allowed the fourth-most rushing yards on the season (140.3 per game), fifth-most rushing attempts and have allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns (21). This is a defense that has struggled with consistency as they benched Kenneth Murray, Kyzir White has been inconsistent on the season, and the defensive tackles have been some of the worst in the NFL with Jerry Tillery and Justin Jones. One injury to keep an eye on this week is the health of Derwin James who left the game last week with a hamstring injury, if he is unable to go, this would be an even worst situation as it would leave quite a hole for the Chargers in the secondary.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Nick Chubb has seen an increase in snap share since Kareem Hunt was injured in Week 14, with at least 60% snap share the last three weeks, his only weeks this season with more than 60% snap share. Chubb has seen 17, 23, and 17 carries in the past three weeks, with at least 20 touches in each performance. It appears that Hunt will once again miss as he has not practiced this week as he is still dealing with an ankle injury. Outside of a two game stretch in which Chubb faced the Ravens in consecutive games, he has been dominant for most of the season as he has topped 80 yards in 9 of his 10 other games while averaging 107 rushing yards per contest. The offensive line should see a major improvement as well as they should get Jedrick Wills and J.C. Tretter back for this game which puts them in the Top 10 of Footballguys offensive line rankings.

The Steelers run defense has completely collapsed this season as they have now surpassed the Jets and are allowing the most rushing yards in the NFL (142.7) while allowing 4.8 yards-per-carry. The Steelers have been susceptible to big performances over the past two months, with D’Onta Foreman (108 yards), Dalvin Cook (205), Joe Mixon (165), and D’Andre Swift (130) all going over 100 yards in the past seven weeks. This remains a defense that has major holes particularly at the linebacker position as Devin Bush has been the worst linebacker in football this season while Joe Schobert is not providing much playmaking ability either.

San Francisco vs Houston

Starting running back Elijah Mitchell has missed the past three games with a knee injury. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan has said Mitchell “has a chance” to play against the Texans in Week 17 which could be great news for the 49ers as they are in a must-win mode as they look to make a playoff run. Mitchell who has missed the last three games was a work-horse prior to his injury topping 22 carries or more in each of his three games before injury and averaged 97 yards per game on the ground. With Trey Lance starting for the 49ers, he should also add a dynamic running upside that the team has not had with Jimmy Garoppolo this season.

The Texans on the season have the dreaded combination of a lack of talent on the defensive side of the ball combined with often being in negative game scripts. On the season they have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (141.3), while also allowing the third-most rush attempts (454), and allow the second-most rushing touchdowns on the season (25). The Texans cut Zach Cunningham earlier this season after facing multiple disciplinary issues for the Texans. While Cunningham was playing poorly for the Texans, they have not been able to replace the highly paid linebacker as they’ve shifted Christian Kirksey inside, along with promoting Neville Hewitt, but neither have really improved this run defense as this remains a unit that struggles mightily at the linebacker position. Over the last four weeks, the Texans have allowed 26 or more fantasy points to opponents in three of those four games.

Dallas vs Arizona

The Dallas rushing attack has been a disappointment for most of the season as they seemingly can’t get any consistency amongst their two-headed running back committee in Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Ezekiel Elliott continues to have the lead role in the Dallas offense over Tony Pollard but has failed to rush for more than 52 yards since the Week 7 bye. Elliott had performed better before the bye, which has given concern to the fact he is more injured than letting on. Pollard continues to be a contributor in the Dallas offense, with a range of 9 to 17 touches in his six appearances since Week 10. This is an offensive line that continues to rank in the top 10 according to Matt Bitonti, but we just have to wonder how healthy Ezekiel Elliott is as the lack of burst and the lack of volume is concerning for the Cowboys running back.

Arizona’s run defense has been hit or miss this season as they struggled for the first four weeks of the season, then were great from Week 5 through Week 11, but since their Week 12 bye they have completely fallen off the cliff again. Over the last four games, the Cardinals have allowed 75 yards or more to each opposing running back they have faced including over 100 yards in each of their last two games to Jonathan Taylor and Craig Reynolds. What’s even more interesting is opposing offenses have taken a run-heavy approach giving their starting running backs 20 or more carries in each of those four games as teams try to adjust to Arizona’s early success this season. The Cardinals up the middle have struggled as Corey Peters and Leki Fotu at defensive tackle have both struggled to consistently make plays and keep the defenders off of the linebackers Jordan Hicks and Isaiah Simmons. Simmons is the weak link against the run as he’s primarily a pass rushing linebacker. This is a defense that will need to get right quickly as they aspire to make a deep playoff run.

Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups

NY Jets vs Tampa Bay

The New York Jets had a breakout performance from Michael Carter last week as he ran 16 times for 118 yards against the Jaguars which played a big role in sealing the Jets fourth win of the season. Carter has been a bright spot for the Jets this season as he is averaging 4.2 yards-per-carry and while volume has been the biggest issue has shown some of his breakaway ability with runs 35 yards or longer in two of his last three games. Carter saw a season-high 74% of the snaps which could be a good sign for him for the rest of the season as the Jets are in player evaluation mode as they look to find the players that they can build around heading into next season.

Tampa Bay continues to be a mainstay in the bottom five matchups this season as they have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game at just 87.5. Last week, there were some concerns heading into the game with no Lavonte David at linebacker how this defense would perform and those questions were certainly answered as the Buccaneers allowed just 14 rushing yards to opposing running backs as the Panthers seemingly had no answer for the Buccaneers. This is the second time in two weeks that they have looked completely dominant as they held Alvin Kamara to just 18 yards two weeks ago on 11 carries. Vita Vea leads the defensive line along with Ndamakong Suh and William Gholston which make up one of the biggest defensive lines in the NFL which do a great job keeping defenders off of the linebackers and safeties. If there is a weakspot on this defense, it is Devin White who has struggled with consistency at times this season which has been overshadowed by his speed and playmaking ability, but if there is a person to run at, it is likely White on this defense.

Carolina at New Orleans

After firing Joe Brady because the team wanted to run the ball more, the Panthers have seemingly had zero success on the ground. No running back since the change in offensive coordinator has topped 10 carries as neither Chuba Hubbard nor Ameer Abdullah have had any success running the ball as the team ran for a combined 10 yards from their running backs. While they have been getting some contributions from Cam Newton, it will be Sam Darnold who will start this game which will limit the Panthers rushing upside even more in what should be a very difficult matchup against New Orleans this week.

The Saints continue to be one of the best run-stopping units in the NFL this season as they boast the league’s best defensive line led by Marcus Davenport, David Onyemata, and Cameron Jordan. The New Orleans Saints have given up the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game on the season (95.9). New Orleans has not given up a 100-yard rusher this season and has given up one rushing touchdown to opposing running backs since their Week 6 bye. This is a defense that is extremely well coached by Sean Payton, and seemingly has no holes in their front seven as their linebacking group has performed exceptionally well this season led by Pete Werner and Demario Davis.

Miami at Tennessee

The Dolphins appear to be shifting away from Myles Gaskin and giving Duke Johnson Jr the chance to continue to be the lead running back in Miami. In a crowded running back room with Johnson, Gaskin, Phillip Lindsay, Salvon Ahmed, and Malcolm Brown, Johnson has 35 carries over the last two weeks with Lindsay being the next closest with 25 and Gaskin only having 13 with just 3 carries last week. The Dolphins have had little to no success on the ground this season as they have run for the third-fewest yards per game, and are averaging just 3.4 yards-per-carry which is the worst in football.

Tennessee has been a nice surprise this season, but they have developed into one of the premiere run-stopping units in the NFL. Tennessee has given up the second-fewest rushing yards to opposing defenses per game (86.7). The Titans have only been run against 331 times, the third-fewest times in the league. The Titans have performed well against opposing running backs of late, as the last time, the team surrendered a 50 yard rusher coming in Week 9 against the Rams, a 55 yard performance by Darrell Henderson. This was a defense that was overshadowed by a few big performances early on in the season, most notably James Robinson’s 149 yard performance as well as not realizing how impressive holding Jonathan Taylor to 70 yards or less in two games truly meant back in Week 3 and Week 8. The big advantage for the Titans is that they have some of the best safeties in the NFL led by Kevin Byard and Amani Hooker which have played a big role in preventing the big plays against them this year.

Las Vegas at Indianapolis

Josh Jacobs has been up and down this season which has been marred by injury, but he is coming off of one of his best performances of the season with a 27 carry 129 rushing yard performance against Denver in Week 16. Last week was the first game that Jacobs topped 87 rushing yards on the season. This was a surprise performance that seemingly came out of nowhere as Jacobs was averaging just 12 carries per game coming into last week. To have the game he did against a good Broncos defense should indicate that he may be healthy for the first time this season which is great news for the Raiders if they can continue to lean on Jacobs as they will once again be tested this week against a strong Colts defense.

The Colts run defense is one that is not going to immediately pop out as a difficult matchup, but it is a unit that has been very solid the second half of the season outside of the one Leonard Fournette performance where he ran for 100 yards and 3 touchdowns. Outside of that game, the Colts have allowed just one touchdown since Week 8, they shut down Derrick Henry holding him to 68 yards on 28 carries, and have not allowed a running back to top 70 yards. This is a defense that relies heavily on their two superstars in Darius Leonard and DeForest Buckner to solidify their front seven, but first-round rookie Kwity Paye has been playing exceptionally well as well containing the edge.

Houston at San Francisco

Rex Burkhead at age 31 has now had double-digit carries in five of the past six games, including a career game of 22 carries, 149 rushing yards, and two touchdowns. With the Texans trading Mark Ingram and David Johnson out due to injury, this should continue to be Burkhead’s offense going forward which is likely the first time in his career he has had a chance to show what he can do as the primary option for an extended period of time as he had just 340 career carries heading into this season. Burkhead is a slasher with good vision, but the big issue for the Texans continues to be the offensive line as they are without several starters including Tytus Howard who has been placed on the Covid list. Matt Bitonti has this Texans offensive line ranked as the worst in football.

The 49ers are another team that has solidified themselves as one of the better run-stopping units in the NFL over the course of the second-half of the season. Since Week 9, the 49ers have allowed just one running back to top 60 yards which was James Conner in Week 9. Since then, the 49ers have shut down some very quality running backs in Dalvin Cook (39), Cordarrelle Patterson (18), Joe Mixon (58), and James Robinson (29). The defensive line has been the major difference in the turnaround this season. While Nick Bosa has had a tremendous year all year, D.J. Jones and Arik Armstread both have great the second-half which has greatly helped Fred Warner at the linebacker position get back to his elite level of play we saw last season. This is a defense that is trending in the right direction as they look to make a Wildcard push to the playoffs.