One of the most exploitable inefficiencies in dynasty fantasy football is the difference between where players are selected in startup drafts and their 2021 projection. High-priced players are more long-term bets, so their 2021 projection is less significant than lower-priced players with much lower long-term hit rates. For the later picks, in particular, players projected to outscore their draft position should be targeted. Below are running backs who beat their current dynasty cost in our consensus projections broken into three categories: injury-away running backs, starters in multi-year windows of security, and starters in one year of security.
Injury-Away Type Players
The first bucket of value includes players who are an injury away from a starting job. Some also have committee roles while their starter is healthy, giving them multiple outs to return value on their draft cost.
Jamaal Williams (Dynasty ADP: RB46, Our 2021 Projection: RB32)
Our projections like Jamaal Williams 14 spots better than his current dynasty draft position. Our projections have him as an RB3 in production as an RB4 in cost, which is notable as we also project D’Andre Swift for a full season. Williams has a committee role and an injury-away role in the offense, giving him multiple outs to return value on his current cost. Williams is projected with 11.5 touches per game, well within flex consideration depending on his matchup, compared to 16.4 touches for Swift.
Latavius Murray (Dynasty ADP: RB52.5, Our 2021 Projection: RB39)
Latavius Murray is projected at RB39 at the cost of RB52.5 in the past month. We project Murray for 149 carries, right in line with his per-game usage the past three years when he finished RB34, RB30, and RB33. With the changing offense and a lack of a true threat at the wide receiver with Michael Thomas still recovering from a June surgery, the offense could tilt in favor of the running game and allow Murray to increase his volume in 2021.
James Conner (Dynasty ADP: RB43, Our 2021 Projection: RB30)
Our projections like James Conner to have an advantage on the ground over Chase Edmonds (11.3 rushes per game to 9.6), while Edmonds is nearly two to one over Conner in receptions (3.5 receptions per game to 2.0). Conner has had success in the passing game, with .92 yards per route run which was 29th in the league in 2020. Like Williams and Murray, Conner has multiple outs, from a committee contributor to a higher-upside, injury-away role.
Leonard Fournette (Dynasty ADP: RB38, Our 2021 Projection: RB29)
Leonard Fournette is a similar cost to Murray, Williams, and Conner but may actually be more poorly situated. Fournette played well down the stretch, but we project Ronald Jones II to have more rushes (169 to 158). While Fournette projects for 28.8 receptions, the addition of Giovani Bernard is likely to cap his receiving upside. Unlike Murray, Williams, and Conner, Fournette may need multiple injuries in the backfield to be confident he is an RB2 weekly projection.
Kenyan Drake (Dynasty ADP: RB45, Our 2021 Projection: RB36)
Our projection likes Drake similar to other players on this list. He fits the mold of a committee back with injury-away upside. Drake is projected in the passing game to have 37.8 receptions but only 125 carries. In the event of an injury to Josh Jacobs, Drake would get the first opportunity to add his carries to his receiving profile.
Starters in a multiple-year window of security
These starters are contractually in a multi-year window with their current teams. Given their projection and cost, they are likely values over the next two years.
Aaron Jones (Dynasty ADP: RB15, Our 2021 Projection: RB5)
Aaron Jones continues to be undervalued compared to projections. This is a big difference with an RB15 cost over the last month with an RB5 consensus projection. This can be the difference between a win at the running back position. The Aaron Rodgers contract situation held back the cost of Jones over the summer, but he has yet to see an appreciable increase in cost. For example, he is behind J.K. Dobbins in startup cost, who is unlikely to have a top 6 finish in his range of outcomes. Jones has a multi-year contract now after an offseason extension, which should create security for the next two seasons. Jones is a smashing value at his cost, more so in the startup draft market than the dynasty trade market.
Austin Ekeler (Dynasty ADP: RB16, Our 2021 Projection: RB7)
Like Jones, Austin Ekeler is contractually in a multi-year window of security and undervalued based on his current projection. Both are behind Dobbins, and both have the receiving profile to produce a top-five seasonal finish that Dobbins is unlikely to have in his range of outcomes. Early reports are Ekeler is being used throughout the formation in the passing game, which could create plenty of receiving value in 2021.
Chris Carson (Dynasty ADP: RB24, Our 2021 Projection: FBG 16)
Chris Carson returns with a contract that likely protects him as a starter in a multiple-year window, similar to Ekeler and Jones. Carson’s projection and cost are lower than both, with 45 receptions, the 15th-highest in our consensus projection at the running back position.
Projected 2021 Starters
These players are projected to be starters for their team, but contractually in a one-year window of security.
Mike Davis (Dynasty ADP: RB31, Our 2021 Projection: FBG 23)
Mike Davis ranked third behind only Lamar Jackson and Nick Chubb in forced missed tackles per attempt in 2020. While he benefited from the volume he received after the Christian McCaffrey injury, he took advantage from a skill perspective. Davis is in the Arthur Smith offense, which created strong production for Derrick Henry in Tennessee, and has a more versatile skillset to beat defenses than Henry in the passing game. Davis is projected with the 18th-most receptions at the running back position (44), which has upside given the shallow set of receiving weapons in Atlanta outside of Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts.
Chase Edmonds (Dynasty ADP: RB29, Our 2021 Projection: FBG 21)
Both Arizona running backs are below our projections in current cost. If the situation were to consolidate in the event of an injury, one of the running backs could smash their current cost. Edmonds took over a big role in the passing game in 2020 after Kenyan Drake was projected to do so in the preseason. Our projections align with Edmonds’ reception total from 2020. With Conner being less of a threat to Edmonds in the passing, Edmonds can outperform the projection if he stays healthy in a contract year.
