Click here for QBs who will miss their dynasty cost in 2021.
One of the most exploitable inefficiencies in dynasty fantasy football is the difference between where players are selected in startup drafts and their 2021 projection. High-priced players are more long-term bets, so their 2021 projection is less significant than lower-priced players with much lower long-term hit rates. For the later picks, in particular, players projected to outscore their draft position should be targeted. Below are six quarterbacks we project to outproduce their dynasty draft position over the past 30 days.
Tom Brady (Dynasty ADP: QB21, Our 2021 Projection: QB5)
With a draft position of QB21 in dynasty drafts in the past month, Brady is recognized by the market as nearing the end of his prolific career. There is a gap between Brady and similarly situated Ben Roethlisberger (QB29), but the difference in their cost is reflected by their 2021 projection, with Brady projected at QB5 and Roethlisberger at QB21. Brady is the ultimate win-now player at cost and is likely the latest drafted player in superflex dynasty drafts with a two-wins-over-replacement season in his range of outcomes. Brady can be a win-now piece for a team drafting to win in year one or a contending team looking for a shot in the arm.
Recent trades involving Brady include:
- Tom Brady for Sam Darnold and a 2023 2nd
- Tom Brady for Kyle Trask, a 2022 2nd, and 2023 2nd
- Tom Brady and Adrian Peterson for Marcus Mariota and Parris Campbell
Derek Carr (Dynasty ADP: QB26, Our 2021 Projection: QB17)
Derek Carr has been a good pocket passer in his career, including leading the league in yards per attempt on non-play-action passes from a clean pocket in 2020 and finished 8th in yards per attempt overall. Carr should have a better set of weapons with an additional year of experience for Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards, along with the additions of Kenyan Drake and John Brown. Carr will be held back by passing game volume as we project him at 13th in passing attempts which falls in line with his rank of 14th in passing attempts in 2020. Carr has only one year left on his contract after 2021, and with rumors always present that Jon Gruden may look for a change at quarterback, Carr’s price has fallen. If Las Vegas moves on from Carr, he will get another opportunity to start, more in line with Matthew Stafford’s market desirability than Carson Wentz.
Recent trades for Carr include:
- Derek Carr for Chase Edmonds
- Derek Carr for Carson Wentz
- Derek Carr and Anthony Firkser for Cam Newton and Irv Smith
Ben Roethlisberger (Dynasty ADP: QB29, Our 2021 Projection: QB21)
Ben Roethlisberger was third in the league in passing attempts in 2020. The problem was he ranked 35th out of 42 qualifiers in yards per attempt. With JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and Chase Claypool at wide receiver to go along with Eric Ebron and Pat Freiermuth at tight end and Najee Harris at running back, Roethlisberger has a strong and diverse set of weapons. The change to Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada may result in a scheme change and drop in passing volume but could increase the use of high-value play-action passing attempts, which could more than make up for a drop in passing game volume.
Roethlisberger appeared near the end of his career last season, but an improvement in his elbow with another year to gain strength after his 2019 injury could rejuvenate his career. A QB2 finish, at a discount of multiple rounds on the likes of Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold, would be a solid return for a contending team.
Recent trades involving Roethlisberger include:
- Ben Roethlisberger for Jarvis Landry
- Ben Roethlisberger for a 2022 2nd
- Ben Roethlisberger for a 2022 3rd
Ryan Fitzpatrick (Dynasty ADP: QB31, Our 2021 Projection: QB24)
Ryan Fitzpatrick has stayed similarly priced through the offseason, coming in as QB31 in drafts but QB24 in projections. Fitzpatrick may even have better odds than Roethlisberger to be a 2022 starter, with Washington likely good enough to play themselves out of a franchise quarterback in the draft. Fitzpatrick has weapons to help him in Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel (if healthy), former teammate Adam Humphries, and rookie Dyami Brown, together with Logan Thomas, Antonio Gibson, and J.D. McKissic.
Recent trades for Fitzpatrick include:
- Ryan Fitzpatrick for a 2022 2nd
- Ryan Fitzpatrick and DeVante Parker for Ronald Jones II
- Ryan Fitzpatrick and Anthony Firkser for Parris Campbell and Jack Doyle
Kirk Cousins (Dynasty ADP: QB20, Our 2021 Projection: QB14)
Kirk Cousins fits in the Derek Carr range of the position. Cousins is in a multiple-year starting window with contract protection in Minnesota in 2022, making it unlikely he is not their 2022 starter (a 45 million dollar guaranteed contract with a 45 million dollars in dead cap if cut). Cousins has a change in offensive coordinator with Gary Kubiak retiring and Klint Kubiak (Gary’s son) taking over the offense, but the offense should look similar. Cousins was third in yards per attempt last season (8.3) and 15th in passing attempts. Our projections have Cousins maintaining his 32 attempts per game and projected Cousins for the second-best yards per attempt (8.2) in 2021. At his cost, a two-year stretch of healthy seasons from Cousins will return a value.
Recent trades involving Cousins include:
- Kirk Cousins and 3.03 for 2.04
- Kirk Cousins for Jaylen Waddle
- Kirk Cousins for a 2022 2nd
Aaron Rodgers (Dynasty ADP: QB14, Our 2021 Projection: QB9)
Aaron Rodgers’s ADP has begun to creep up in recent weeks. He has been QB14 in the late third round of startup drafts in the past month after falling as far as the fifth over the summer. Rodgers is still a value at cost, despite our projections, including significant regression from last season. Rodgers threw 48 touchdowns on 526 attempts, an unsustainably high touchdown rate of 9.1%. Our 2021 consensus projection includes a 6.6% touchdown rate, just above his career rate of 6.3%, while they project an increase in attempts per game from 32.9 to 34.1. Rodgers will have difficulty matching his 2020 ceiling, but he is still projected to return a value from his cost. There are some concerns that he will be out of Green Bay in 2022, but he should have suitors and a multi-year production window for your dynasty team ahead.
Recent trades for Rodgers include:
- Aaron Rodgers for Tua Tagovailoa
- Aaron Rodgers and Allen Robinson for Joe Burrow and a 2022 2nd
- Aaron Rodgers for Drew Lock and Jerry Jeudy
