Below are some props that you should keep your eye on as you head into Week 15.
All props are coming from DraftKings Sportsbook lines and be sure to keep checking back throughout the weekend as props are added over the course of the 24 hours prior to the game. The number of props will largely depend on the recommended plays, but typically we stay around 5. We will not be forcing the number of props just to meet a number as if it is on here, it is deemed a good play
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Week 14 Recap
We’re falling further and further behind a chance to get back above 50% in what has just been a bit of a disaster of a year. The Chiefs/Raiders game was an absolute killer as it was a blowout before it even got started which killed both the Josh Jacobs and Patrick Mahomes II Overs. Lamar Jackson got hurt within the first couple of plays of the game which hurt as well.
There’s very little room for error at this point of the season with just 4 weeks and the playoffs remaining and 6 props under 50%.
Taysom Hill Over 196.5 Passing- Loss
Josh Jacobs Over 54.5 Rushing- Loss
Lamar Jackson Over 61.5 Rushing- Loss
Kyler Murray Over 27.5 Rushing Yards- Win
Patrick Mahomes II Over 289.5 Passing Yards- Loss
Jared Goff Over 206.5 Passing Yards- Win
Rob Gronkowski Over 52.5 Receiving Yards- Win
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Week 1 |
Week 2 |
Week 3 |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
Week 6 |
Week 7 |
Week 8 |
Week 9 |
Week 10 |
Week 11 |
Week 12 |
Week 13 |
Week 14 |
Total |
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3-2 |
1-4 |
2-3 |
2-3 |
3-2 |
4-1 |
4-1 |
2-3 |
3-2 |
1-4 |
0-5 |
2-3 |
3-2 |
3-4 |
33-39 |
Week 14 Plays- 7 Plays this week
Trevor Lawrence Over 211.5 Passing Yards
The Jaguars have a fresh start with the departure of Urban Meyer this week. Trevor Lawrence went public with criticism of Meyer for keeping James Robinson off of the field and limiting their offense in general. With Meyer no longer being in the building, the organization hopefully can open up this offense a little bit to give Lawrence and this offense a chance to develop. Houston’s pass defense is not nearly as bad as their run defense which is one of the worst in the NFL, but it is still allowing 251 yards passing per game and have allowed over 211 yards in 10 of their 12 games this season. Expect this offense to have more success in a game that they are favored. Lawrence looked much better last week against Tennessee as he threw for 226 yards in that game.
Aaron Rodgers Over 264.5 Passing Yards
The Packers passing offense has been on a roll the last three weeks as they have topped 310 yards in each of their last three games. The Packers will likely struggle to run the ball against the Ravens who boast one of the league’s best run defenses, but do struggle to stop the pass as they are allowing 280 yards-per-game. With Marlon Humphrey recently being out for the season, the Ravens are without their top two corners and have no one who can consistently defend Davante Adams.
Tom Brady Under 300.5 Passing Yards
Tom Brady is having an MVP type season this year as Tampa Bay is in the hunt for the number one seed in the NFC. Brady is coming off of back to back 360+ yard performances and has now thrown for over 300 yards in three of his last four games after losing two straight games back in November. So why should you consider the under in this game? The number is just a little bit too high as historically Brady has struggled against the Saints. In his four matchups against the Saints, Brady has thrown for less than 240 yards in three of those games. He did tear up this pass defense in Week 8 throwing for 375 yards, but that was a game that the Buccaneers were losing for most of the game. Brady and the Buccaneers did most of their work in the late third and into the fourth quarter once the Buccaneers were down 23-7.
Deebo Samuel Under 42.5 Receiving Yards
This number is somewhat surprising as Deebo has primarily been utilized as a running back over the last three weeks. Last week, with no Eli Mitchell, Deebo only saw one total target as the 49ers relied heavily on George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk who had a combined 25 targets. This just seems as if the 49ers want to use Samuel as a decoy and as a gadget type player which is incredibly confusing after his early season success as a dominant wide receiver.
Patrick Mahomes II II Over 289.5 Passing Yards
Patrick Mahomes II II and the Chiefs passing offense has struggled mightily this season by their standards as they are averaging “only” 282 passing yards. This is an offense that has shown that they can still be explosive and still throw for significant numbers when they are clicking. The good news here, is that they should have a ton of confidence heading into this game this week as they have absolutely dominated the Raiders over the last several seasons. The Chiefs have thrown for 340 yards or more in three consecutive games, and four of their last five games against this Raiders defense. This is simply a skill mismatch as the Raiders linebacking group is abysmal in pass coverage as is Johnathan Abrams which should bode well for Travis Kelce this week.
James Robinson Under 18.5 Rush Attempts
There is a lot of hype this week for James Robinson mostly based on speculation that Urban Meyer was the reason that Robinson was not receiving playing time instead playing Carlos Hyde over him which led Trevor Lawrence to call out Meyer. Robinson is averaging just seven carries per game over the last two weeks and has not topped 18.5 carries all season. So, the question we have to ask ourselves is, what if it was not just Meyer that held back Robinson. The play calling duties have not changed in that Darrell Bevell called the plays with Meyer and will call the plays this week. Yes, Carlos Hyde will miss this week, but even in a game earlier this year in which the Jaguars beat the Dolphins, Robinson was the only running back to get a carry and had just 17 carries.
