Below are some props that you should keep your eye on as you head into Week 11.
All props are coming from DraftKings Sportsbook lines and be sure to keep checking back throughout the weekend as props are added over the course of the 24 hours prior to the game. The number of props will largely depend on the recommended plays, but typically we stay around 5. We will not be forcing the number of props just to meet a number as if it is on here, it is deemed a good play
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Week 10 Recap
Tough week last week. After things mostly being positive since Week 5, this was a crushing week that brings us back to even on the season.
Dalvin Cook Over 91.5 Rushing Yards- Win
Najee Harris Under 93.5 Rushing Yards- Loss
Matt Ryan Over 291.5 Passing Yards- Loss
Ryan Tannehill Over 247.5 Passing Yards- Loss
Mark Ingram II Under 85.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards- Loss
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Week 1 |
Week 2 |
Week 3 |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
Week 6 |
Week 7 |
Week 8 |
Week 9 |
Week 10 |
Total |
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3-2 |
1-4 |
2-3 |
2-3 |
3-2 |
4-1 |
4-1 |
2-3 |
3-2 |
1-4 |
25-25 |
Week 11 Plays
Aaron Rodgers Under 272.5 Passing Yards
For this number to be at 272.5 yards is somewhat surprising, as Rodgers has topped this number just three times this season and two of which were against bottom-5 passing defenses (Washington and Seattle) and the other game went to overtime. Minnesota’s passing defense has been playing much better after some early season collapses against Cooper Rush, Kyler Murray, and Russell Wilson. They dominated the Chargers last week holding them to just 195 yards and 266 to Lamar Jackson in Week 9. Expect a heavy dose of rushing on both sides of this game this week that will likely keep Rodgers under the number here.
Justin Fields Over 208.5 Passing Yards
Justin Fields had the game of his season last week against Pittsburgh in which he threw for 291 yards which was only the second time he threw for over 200 yards this season (Week 4 against Detroit he threw for 209). This week, Fields gets to face Baltimore who surprisingly are allowing 299 yards passing per game as their pass defense has been abysmal this season while their run defense has been very strong. Last week, Baltimore allowed 314 passing yards to Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett which was the 5th time that the Ravens have allowed 300 yards or more. Expect the Ravens to try to take away Fields’ rushing ability and force him to stay within the pocket and beat him with his arm.
Leonard Fournette Over 64.5 Rushing Yards
So far this season, Leonard Fournette has shown that he is capable of dominating the bad run defenses in the NFL, but has struggled against the elite rushing defenses. The good news here is that the Giants have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and are allowing 110 yards rushing per game to the position. The Giants have allowed over 64.5 yards seven times in their nine games this season, so look for the Buccaneers to come out early and try to establish the run. In games that Tampa has won, Fournette is averaging 17.25 carries since establishing himself as the number one running back in Tampa Bay. If he can get 17 carries in this one, he should be a lock to go over 64.5 yards.
Marcus Johnson Over 33.5 Receiving Yards
What Marcus Johnson was able to do last week was incredibly impressive. Johnson had to deal with a heavy dosage of coverage from Marshon Lattimore as the Saints elected to double-team A.J. Brown in bracket coverage. Johnson led the team in targets, receptions, and yards. This is a Titans team that desperately needs a second receiving option as they try to figure out their offense moving forward without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones.
Christian McCaffrey more rushing yards than D’Andre Swift
We haven’t covered one of these in a while, but this one does not make a lot of sense. Christian McCaffrey’s prop is 64.5 rushing yards compared to D’Andre Swift’s 55.5, and they are even money regarding who will have more rushing yards. Swift has a difficult matchup this week against Cleveland who have allowed only 3.8 yards-per-carry on the season, and with Tim Boyle at quarterback for Detroit, expect the Browns to be laser focused in on stopping Swift. Swift had a huge workload last week with 33 carries in the overtime tie, but prior to that he had not had more than 14 carries in a game. Do we really think the 0-8-1 Lions are going to run D’Andre Swift into the ground with all of a sudden running the ball 30x a game? The answer is probably not as it doesn’t make sense for them to do so when this team isn’t going anywhere this season.
Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers have new found life after dominating the Cardinals last week. At 5-5, they very much have everything still to play for, and McCaffrey looked outstanding last week rushing for 95 yards on just 13 carries. Expect McCaffrey to get 13-15 carries, but have far more success especially with Cam Newton at quarterback than what Swift should have this week.
