Below are some props that you should keep your eye on as you head into Week 7.
All props are coming from DraftKings Sportsbook lines and be sure to keep checking back throughout the weekend as props are added over the course of the 24 hours prior to the game. The number of props will largely depend on the recommended plays. We will not be forcing the number of props just to meet a number as if it is on here, it is deemed a good play
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Week 6 Recap 4-1
Back to even on the year with a 4-1 week last week. Slightly benefitted from a Kareem Hunt injury, but those are often times the breaks when it comes to props, so it was nice to be on the winning side of those for once.
Aaron Rodgers Under 259.5 Passing Yards- Win
Kareem Hunt Under 87.5 Rushing Yards- Win
Dalton Schultz Over 44.5 Receiving Yards- Win
Ben Roethlisberger Over 255.5 Passing Yards- Loss
Latavius Murray Over 43.5 Rushing Yards- Win
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Week 1 |
Week 2 |
Week 3 |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
Week 6 |
Total |
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3-2 |
1-4 |
2-3 |
2-3 |
3-2 |
4-1 |
15-15 |
Week 7 Plays
Jameis Winston Over 205.5 Passing Yards
This one is confusing in a lot of regards. The Saints had a weird first three weeks of the season, but for the most part their offense has somewhat stabilized over the last two games and Jameis Winston is being relied upon more to consistently throw the ball. Over the last two games, Winston is averaging 252 passing yards. This week he gets to face a Seahawks team that on the year has been abysmal averaging allowing 306 passing yards per game on the season. Every quarterback this season has topped 205.5 yards when facing Seattle except for the 49ers where Jimmy Garoppolo got injured and the 49ers totaled 322 passing yards combined.
Matthew Stafford Under 288.5 Passing Yards
This entire game is personal for both teams as Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff both face their former teams this week. This will likely have people wanting to take the over thinking that Stafford is going to come out and throw 400+ yards in this game. While every outcome is possible within a football game, it seems more likely that the Rams are not going to significantly deviate from their game plan simply because Stafford is playing his former team.
The way to beat Detroit is on the ground as they are allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and have now allowed 90+ yards to individual running backs in 4 of the last 6 games. From a passing perspective, the Lions have allowed 288.5 passing yards or more just once this season in which the 49ers had 314 passing yards, but that was largely due to a 79-yard broken play that Deebo Samuel was able to score on. This is likely a game where Darrell Henderson plays a significant factor in the running game and the Rams coast to an easy victory.
Joe Mixon Over 53.5 Rushing Yards
Baltimore’s run defense has quietly been a top-five run defense in the NFL this year as they are allowing just 69 yards rushing per game. They have largely shut down some very good running backs holding Austin Ekeler to just 7 yards, Jonathan Taylor to 53 yards, Josh Jacobs to 34 yards, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire to 46 yards.
So why are we taking the over here? The number is simply too low. On the season, Mixon is averaging 80 yards per game. Mixon has topped 53.5 yards in 5 of his 6 games this year with the only game that he did not was the game in which he was largely doubtful to play but was a late active and had just 10 carries as he was out snapped by Samaje Perine. Mixon has 16 or more carries in every game this year and the Bengals are going to continue to give Mixon the carries to hopefully hit the 53.5 yard mark.
Aaron Rodgers Over 255.5 Passing Yards
This matchup has everything to do with how bad Washington’s secondary is this season. Washington on the year is allowing 317 passing yards which is the most in the NFL this season. Five of the six quarterbacks this season have topped 255.5 yards against Washington. The number is lower than it should be due to Aaron Rodgers having a slow start to the season. Rodgers has topped 255 yards just twice this season which is ultimately driving this number down. The Packers have not faced a defense that is as close to as bad as Washington’s all season as the only top 10 passing matchup that they have faced was a weird Week 1 game against New Orleans who had a fully healthy Marshon Lattimore at the time and were better than a top-10 passing matchup. This one has a get right game written all over it for Green Bay. Footballguys has Rodgers projected for 260 yards in this game.
Damien Harris Over 64.5 Rushing Yards
Damien Harris’ season has been a tail of two stories. Harris has faced the two best run defenses in the NFL this season in Tampa Bay and New Orleans and struggled mightily having a total of 10 yards in those two games. Outside of those two games, Harris averaging 80 yards rushing per game. The Jets are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season and are allowing 111 yards rushing per game. In the first meeting this season, Damien Harris barely fell short of the 64.5 Rushing Yards as he had 62 in that game, but the Patriots did have James White in that game who is currently on IR with a hip injury. Expect Harris to have 16-18 carries in this game which should allow him to break through to get to 70-75 rushing yards this week. Footballguys has Harris projected at 69 yards this week.
