NFL Draft Week is here! I hope this finds all of you well and safe and appreciating what there is to appreciate in all of our lives. I appreciate the opportunity to bring you the 16th edition of the Bloom 100. This year we didn’t get the benefit of the combine and teams are completing their scouting process later than ever. It’s possible that teams actually figure out that the combine numbers threw them off the scent more than put them on it. Like the teams, we will continue to refine our process, learn from our misses, and bask in the glory of our hits.
The Bloom 100 is ranked with the following type of dynasty fantasy football league in mind:
- Full IDP lineups including DT and CB
- PPR, start 3 WR
- Deep lineups and rosters
Of course, depending on your league scoring and settings, the placement of some positions can change, but the tier breaks and rankings within position should be good to use across all league formats.
How are the classes compared to previous years?
- QB: Five first-round quarterbacks and four with running ability. Switching to 2QB/Superflex is more important than ever.
- RB: Two starters and maybe 2-3 backs with a shot to start, but definitely down from last year.
- WR: Not quite as strong in the top 10-15 as last year, but still above average in the top 10 strictly in terms of ceiling, and very deep with players who should at least stick on an NFL roster.
- TE: The best tight end prospect in the Super Bowl era, and a few others who could stick as starter and low-end fantasy contributors
- DT: A poor class with only one player worth our attention
- EDGE: A class with lots of intriguing talents, but no true blue-chip players when it comes to risk, production, and already realized potential.
- Off-Ball LB: A very strong first-round trio (quartet?) and at least a few more who could develop into starters.
- S: This class lacks a marquee player, but could yield a few fantasy-relevant safeties.
- CB: Two premium prospects (a third if you count Virginia Tech’s Caleb Farley, who recently had back surgery, clouding his outlook), and a third likely first-round pick who should start right away, plus a bunch of second round types who could start earlier than later.
Pre-Draft Strategy Cheatsheet
Be ready to trade up for Kyle Pitts
Early ADP indicates that Pitts is available at five or six in some drafts, and that is just not right. Lay the groundwork with teams holding the third or fourth pick so you can pounce when he falls.
Take a quarterback in the second round
I don’t care what your quarterback situation is in your 1-QB league. After the Top 10 or 12 running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends are gone, it’s very likely Justin Fields or Trey Lance is going to be the best value on your board.
Don’t hold onto late second (or later) round picks too tightly
The caliber of talents at running back and wide receiver is lower than recent years, so if it costs a later pick to move up to get your target, don’t hesitate.
If you don’t take a quarterback in the second, take a linebacker
The quality of off-ball linebackers is very strong in this class and they are more likely to help your IDP team (scoring system willing) than the offensive players available in the second.
The 2021 Pre-Draft Bloom 100
1. Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Pitts is a unicorn. There couldn’t be more signs that Pitts is expected to perform at a level never seen before, or at least not in this generation. He’s an elite athlete and already possesses skill and nuance. Did I mention he doesn’t turn 21 until October? It’s not difficult to see Pitts in the top five fantasy tight ends right away. Ignore the history of first round tight ends starting slow, none of them were at Pitts level as a prospect. I don’t care where he lands, he will be a foundational player in the offense. You will likely only have one chance to get a player like Pitts. If he’s not the first or second pick in your draft, get ready to trade up. Lay the groundwork with teams in the #3 or #4 slot now so you can pounce. In a tight end premium, he’s worth multiple first round picks, including one in the top five this year.
2. Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Harris should be considered clearly ahead of Travis Etienne on your board no matter where and when they are drafted. He has a lower bust risk and translates better across offenses. I really liked the Danny Kelly draft guide “shades of” Steven Jackson to give an idea of Harris’s caliber of talent. Pittsburgh and Miami look like the most likely landing spots.
3. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Chase is going to be drafted in the same rarefied air as players like Julio Jones and A.J. Green (and Corey Davis?!?) but “wow factor” is more subtle, with elite physicality and competitive toughness to go along with elite tools. He is a true #1 receiver who can win before, during, and after the catch and make a difference in all aspects of the passing game.
4. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Waddle isn’t as polished as his teammate, DeVonta Smith, but he is better equipped to make game-changing and fantasy- matchup tilting plays with his speed and prowess at the catch point, belying his small frame and inspiring comparisons to Tyreek Hill and Steve Smith. The gap between him and Smith isn’t big and might flip depending on destination, but Chase is likely to remain above both regardless of where the big three receivers land.
5. DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
I don’t care what Smith weighs. Like Eric Crocker said on Twitter, show me where his lack of mass kept him from making a play and then I’ll care. He will still likely be the third wide receiver drafted and could fall into the late teens. Smith will do best in a high value pass offense with a quarterback who takes what the defense gives him. Is that Kyler Murray and Arizona? I’m not sure, but that’s where I keep seeing Smith end up in mock drafts.
6. Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Etienne is drawing a lot of Jamaal Charles comparisons. I can see that when everything lines up, but he doesn’t always do a great job with the part his decisions play in everything lining up. He could struggle behind a porous offensive line, although his improvement as a pass catcher this year is very encouraging for giving him a solid weekly floor. Think Miles Sanders. All of the good are there, but a good offense will give him the wider berth he needs to hit his ceiling, while a poor offense could pour cold water on what he has to offer more than it would for an efficient back like Harris.
7. Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
Moore isn’t a true burner and his size might limit him to playing inside on Sundays, but otherwise he has just about everything you want in a receiver. He is already highly skilled and plays fast. In a good offense with a good quarterback, he could be a perennial 100-catch player, but he could also land somewhere that asks him to be a second fiddle or in a pass offense that is under construction. Moore has the highest floor of the second tier of receivers but the lowest ceiling.
8. Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
It’s difficult to not see Justin Jefferson when you watch Marshall. His fluid and subtly explosive movement combined with length topped off with speed makes it seem unfair for the player charged with checking him at times. He can certainly become more polished as a route runner and there could be a rough transition if Marshall doesn’t bring his A game more consistently, but his ceiling is too good to pass up at the top of the second tier of wide receivers.
9. Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
Bateman really stood out on when we were watching Tyler Johnson last year, but he didn’t follow up with a 2020 that set a new standard, so there’s some difficulty in figuring out which year to weigh more in his outlook. He has the hands, routes, and body control of a go-to #1 receiver, but he doesn’t look like a top-end athlete and he can be outmuscled at the catch point. The pros will offer better athletes who are more skilled than the competition he has been routinely besting in the Big Ten, so there’s some risk here.
10. Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
Parsons is an elite athlete and he can make an impact against the pass, run, and as a pass rusher. He’s likely to be the first linebacker off of the board and should be drafted as such. Make sure you know how your scoring system affects IDP value. As long as the top linebackers score near where the top wide receivers do, Parsons belongs in the top 10 of your rookie draft.
11. Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
At the bottom of the second tier of receivers, the risk goes up, but the ceiling does too. Toney is electric and the most dangerous of this receiver class with the ball in his hands. He is also in the early part of his development as a receiver, although early signs are promising. There’s an off-field risk here too, but if Toney keeps his head on straight and continues in the direction his arrow is pointing, he’ll become a featured player and look like a value at this ADP.
12. Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
Moore would have been up there with Chase, Waddle, and Smith if we were going on his freshman year. Since then, injuries have piled up missed games, and Moore doesn’t look quite as explosive as he did earlier in his career. Like Toney, Moore doesn’t project as a full-time wide receiver yet, but his ability with the ball in his hands will make his coaches manufacture touches for him. If Moore can recapture his past form, he will be a weekly highlight maker and make anyone who gets him at ADP in rookie drafts very very happy.
13. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Don’t worry, there will be a superflex ranking as this one assumes 1-QB lineups, which lowers the value of the position, especially in a draft with five first round picks, and three or four that add significant value as a runner. The name Andrew Luck comes up in conversations about Lawrence, and it’s not out of line. Lawrence is more of a “sure thing” than the other quarterbacks, but playing under Urban Meyer/Darrell Bevell might not be as much of a boost to his efficiency as playing under Kyle Shanahan will be for the #3 pick. Lawrence might not be my #1 quarterback in the post draft version, stay tuned.
14. Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Level of competition is a legitimate question in Lance’s profile, but his football IQ, competitive toughness, and the variance in things he was asked to do help offset that risk. Lance’s accuracy was the worst of the top five quarterbacks and it could be an issue, but from a fantasy standpoint, his running ability and arm strength will keep the big plays coming even if he misses some layup throws. Yes, think Josh Allen here, which should be your guide on what to do if he falls to the second round of your rookie draft whether you need a quarterback or not.
15. Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Fields is just as impressive as Lance as a fantasy projection, but his game as a passer outside of structure isn’t as integrated as Lance, so the tie is broken against Fields. Fields' better accuracy and experience against big-time competition could still win out. Be excited to take Fields if he falls to you in the second round, and if he is the pick at No. 3, he, like Lance, will become my No. 1 fantasy rookie quarterback in this class.
16. Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina
There’s a lot to like in Williams game, especially when he engages tacklers, and some will stump for him as the No. 1 back in this class. His upside is limited as he won’t be a true workhorse, just like he wasn’t with the Tar Heels, but he can be a strong RB2 in the right spot. Williams will likely go higher in rookie drafts than I am comfortable taking him. Don’t force a pick in the first round just because you need a running back.
17. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
Owusu-Koramoah presents a similar outlook as Isaiah Simmons did for fantasy - that is his immense ability in coverage could limit his upside in tackle-heavy leagues, but his versatility and speed will still show up greatly on the stat sheet. There’s an outside shot of him going ahead of Parsons, and he won’t go long after Parsons does.
18. Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
Collins is defensive end-sized, but can hold his own in coverage and play in space against the run. Like Owusu-Koramoah, there is a question about where his team will line him up and how that will translate to production. Collins should be valued higher in sack-heavy leagues. Don’t be surprised if he’s a top 20, or even top 15 picks.
19. Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
Davis could sneak into the first round because his frame and athleticism are very projectable, especially combined with coverage abilities that allow him to play in the slot. He’s still early in his development and could use more physical edge in his game, but his ceiling is very high as a three-down sideline-to-sideline player.
20. Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
Wilson, like Lance, faces some level of competition questions. When he was at his best, the game was setting him up with ideal conditions to succeed. Wilson’s arm talent, play outside of structure, and default setting to engage the defense as a passer first and foremost is exciting nonetheless, and he’s more than athletic enough to create big gains as a scrambler, although his team won’t want to expose his smaller than typical NFL quarterback frame to a lot of hits. Will the Jets organization ruin him, or will Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur help Wilson take off and reverse the curse of this team? That’s one of the main hesitations in targeting Wilson ahead of Lance or Fields even though Wilson will go earlier in the draft.
21. Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami
Phillips is the kind of talent that usually goes in the top 10, but he also briefly retired because of injuries. He is the best edge rusher in this class and he definitely has the size to stay at defensive end in a 4-3 scheme.
22. Trey Sermon, RB, Ohio State
When Matt Waldman speaks, you listen. Waldman is higher on Sermon than the consensus and you should be too. He could be a fantasy rookie draft first round pick if he lands in a good spot and I’ll be very interested if he is still on the board (he should be) when the Steelers are on the clock at #55 if they didn’t take a running back in the first round. Sermon is a hoss with good feet and hands, but he was better in 2018 than he was in 2020. He did finish extremely strong last year, but that disparity could cause him to fall in the draft.
23. Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State
Wallace leads a third tier of receivers that is deep and should be shaken up by draft slot and destination. He has the length, speed, and game at the catch point to be a solid starting outside NFL receiver who makes plays downfield, and he could have his big play fuse lit with a bold quarterback. Wallace has build-up speed and he is more of a finesse receiver, so he might not strongly translate against better competition.
24. Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
Paye is thick, long, and strong and has lots of room to grow as an edge rusher. His active presence against the run will provide a nice base to the stat sheet for IDP leagues, and if his game on passing downs begins to match his physical gifts, he will be a top line starting defensive end.
25. Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
Bolton is a Tasmanian Devil against the run and should be highlighted in tackle-heavy IDP formats. He’s not an elite athlete and he doesn’t have an ideal frame size, but at worst he’ll be a strong contributor against the run who can still hang in zone coverage.
26. Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
Ojulari’s frame projects him as a 3-4 outside linebacker, but he is very active against the run and his motor runs hot. He has all of the requisite tools you want in an edge rusher, but still has to develop his ability to set up and vary strategies. He should be valued higher in big play formats.
27. Brevin Jordan, TE, Stanford
Jordan projects as a quality move tight end who can rip the seam and add value after the catch. The downside is that he could be drafted as a complement to a good in-line tight end and have his upside capped. He’s not going to be a centerpiece of a passing offense, but on the right team, he could be a solid fantasy TE1.
28. Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State
Freiermuth’s good all-around game will have more value to an NFL team than a fantasy team. He could still be a decent fantasy TE1 given the bleak landscape at the position, but his game is reminiscent of Heath Miller and subject to role volatility, like Austin Hooper or Hunter Henry. Freiermuth isn’t a weapon in the passing game and he might even be overlooked in that aspect depending on where he lands.
29. Nico Collins, WR, Michigan
Collins is a puzzle. He opted out of 2020 and wasn’t that impressive on tape in 2019, but his pro day numbers were first-round quality and if you look at the right 2019 plays, you can see his speed and athleticism in an ideal frame for an NFL outside receiver.
30. Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina
Brown can definitely take the top off of a defense and score long touchdowns, but what else can he do? That is more of an unknown, but the ability to tilt a game with shot plays will be enough to get him into the second day of the draft.
31. Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee
Palmer’s tape tells the story of a receiver who hung with the best corners in the 2021 class and could be a lot better pro than college player. His game is more vertically-oriented, so Palmer’s ability to contribute with short range route sharpness is an unknown, but his ceiling is still very high.
32. Cade Johnson, WR, South Dakota State
Johnson played at a lower level, but his ability to freeze his counterpart with acceleration and lateral agility is highly refined and should translate. His frame is on the thin side and Johnson doesn’t have a true fifth gear, but his length and ball skills will make him a dependable target and he can also make plays after the catch.
33. Amari Rodgers, WR/RB, Clemson
Tee Martin’s son can line up at running back or in the slot, and he can threaten the defense with his deep speed or make things happen after a short catch. He’s not an advanced route runner, but his big play ability and multiple ways to produce should keep him in the vicinity of fantasy relevance.
34. Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington
Tryon might get dinged a little for sitting out this year, but he is still a possible first-round pick and he’ll be a productive pro. He’s more than big enough to be a 4-3 end, important for IDP value, and he plays with endless energy. Tryon might have been in the first half of the first round if he had played and showed development last year, but that could also be to the benefit of the organization that takes him if they go slow with his usage and teach him the finer points of winning with his already impressive frame, power, and athleticism.
35. Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
There’s no denying that Oweh’s array of tools is ideal, so why didn’t he get a sack in 2020? Disruption is still production to the NFL, but not in IDP leagues. Oweh’s ceiling is up there with any edge rusher in this class, but his floor - at least in terms of stat sheet production - is troubling.
36. Jabril Cox, LB, LSU
Cox is outstanding in coverage and should at worst get in on subpackages for his NFL defense right away. With his speed and range, he projects as a three-down player, but Cox isn’t as rugged vs. the run as you’d like and you want him chasing the ball, not reading the play.
37. Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
Rousseau didn’t play last year and still has a ways to go to unlock his very considerable potential as a football player, but the payoff could be as massive as his 6’7” 265 frame. He was extremely productive in 2019 and his tools are prototypical, but Rousseau could get moved around too easily against the run and there’s not much there if he is initially thwarted in his rush attempt.
38. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
St. Brown will have more NFL value than fantasy value, as he is more of a short-range target in the slot who will be valued for his reliability and possession receiver skills more than his ability to make big plays or add to plays with athleticism.
39. Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Memphis
Gainwell has highlight reel speed and quickness, and he can be a primary back on passing downs, but he will never be a bell cow, or perhaps even get a sustainable workload to support fantasy relevance. Gainwell just isn’t cut out to be an inside runner in the NFL, but will be a good part of a committee backfield.
40. Michael Carter, RB, North Carolina
Carter will be a valuable back to his NFL team, especially on passing downs, but he is probably doomed to the Duke Johnson Jr/James White fantasy purgatory that keeps contributions inconsistent enough to frustrate fantasy teams into dropping him sooner or later.
41. Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Jones doesn’t offer anything as a runner or creator outside of structure, so his ceiling is going to be limited to the Kirk Cousins range, even if he lands in San Francisco. Where Jones goes in the draft will be one of the most interesting stories of the first round, but in typical 1-QB leagues, he should be left on the board for a while.
42. D’Wayne Eskridge, WR, Western Michigan
Eskridge is fast, fearless, and shifty, but he is also small and not a refined route runner, so his role in the NFL could be limited. He’ll be an exciting addition to an NFL offense, but has to fill out his game to matter in fantasy
43. Jacob Harris, WR/TE, UCF
Harris is inexperienced, but he’s got length and speed to spare, and some teams view him as a tight end, greatly increasing his fantasy upside. Pay attention to what position he is announced at when he goes on the third day.
44. Seth Williams, WR, Auburn
At his best, Williams can beat any defensive back at the catch point, and provide enough speed to threaten a defense vertically. At his worst, Williams lacks focus and has the look of a player who might not finish his rookie deal. He’s exactly the kind of boom/bust player we should target later in rookie drafts.
45. Chazz Surratt, LB, Wake Forest
The former quarterback has the coverage skills and athleticism you want in a three-down linebacker, he just needs more physical edge and control to his game.
46. Sammis Reyes, TE, Washington Football Team
Reyes isn’t a true rookie, as Washington signed the Tulane basketball convert from Chile this spring, so check your software and league rules. Many leagues will have him available in rookie drafts. He was in the league’s international program and got nearly 400,000 dollars guaranteed on his contract, which is more than most, if not all fifth round picks. Reyes’ pro day was better than any tight end in this class not named Kyle Pitts, with a 4.64 40, 40” vertical, and 10’5” broad jump.
47. Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
Moehrig won’t rack up tackles like a box safety, but he won’t be marooned far from the action as a single-high safety, either. He is active against the run and can make big plays in coverage with anticipation and ball skills.
48. Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi State
Hill’s stock dropped this year after he got banged up and opted out, but he is still a running back prospect with a mean streak and passing game prowess. He could climb a depth chart quickly if 2020 was the aberration, not the norm.
49. Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma State
Hubbard is yet another player who saw his stock drop greatly over the last year. He has long speed and enough bounce and vision to create and find lanes to spring big runs, but there’s not a lot more there to build on right now.
50. Tamorrion Terry, WR, Florida State
Terry has the size and speed you want in a deep threat, but he is inconsistent catching the ball, and he doesn’t offer value in the short and intermediate sections of the route tree. He’ll be walking the tightrope if he can’t be more reliable when it comes time to make the catch.
51. Cornell Powell, WR, Clemson
Powell, like many Clemson receivers, was playing in the shadow of superior NFL prospects for most of his college career, but he peaked this year and had a good pro day and Senior Bowl week to up his presence on the NFL radar. He’s a good enough athlete and route runner, and a bully when the ball is in the air.
52. Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas
Ossai will be fun to root for and he’ll be around the ball a lot due to his strong play in pursuit, but maybe not as a true edge rusher. He has some tools to work with rushing the passer, but he’s not very flexible or fluid and might have limited success in that aspect of his game. A true hustle player with great measureables, Ossai will be best for fantasy if he’s a defensive in a tackle-heavy scoring system.
53. Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Oklahoma
Stevenson has great feet and athleticism, and he catches the ball well for a big man. His running style isn’t very subtle and he might never transcend a committee back role, but he should be a fan favorite.
54. Jalen Camp, WR, Georgia Tech
Camp is a long-term play as he is very much a work in progress as a receiver. He has the size and speed to get us excited in the way Georgia Tech wide receivers usually do, and his special teams ability could buy him the time for his skills to catch up to his potential.
55. Pete Werner, LB, Ohio State
Werner has a nose for the ball and he can hang in coverage, but can also get washed out of the play and he’s not more than an average athlete. He could develop into a productive starter in time.
56. Divine Deablo, S, Virginia Tech
Deablo’s S/LB tweener profile fits in more in the current NFL than it did in previous versions. If he improves his coverage abilities, he could be a three-down player with a lot of IDP fantasy potential.
57. Hamsah Nasirildeen, S, Florida State
Nasirildeen has the approach and body that makes a productive box safety for IDP leagues, but his work in coverage and discipline in the open field need work. His ceiling is high, but he has to tighten up his game to get there.
58. Jaelon Darden, WR, North Texas
Darden’s highlight reel is a lot of fun, showing off NFL quality speed and quickness, especially after the catch. His lack of size will limit his role, but he could surprise if he develops as a route runner and develops the physical edge to work the middle of the field.
59. Anthony Schwartz, WR, Auburn
Schwartz’s straight line speed is as good as any receiver in this class, but he turns into Ted Ginn Jr when it’s time to make the catch downfield. There’s fantasy potential if he becomes a consistent hands catcher, but that rarely develops in the NFL. If Schwartz is with your fantasy team, he’ll probably be the type that offers more tactical value in the NFL than consistent fantasy production.
60. Kawaan Baker, WR, South Alabama
Baker’s athletic gifts give him a high ceiling, but he’s a developmental prospect at this point because of his lower level of play and lack of polish.
61. Marquez Stevenson, WR, Houston
Stevenson will threaten defenses downfield with his speed, but can he finish the plays? He needs to develop as a route runner too, but his speed will get him an extended chance to prove he belongs in the NFL.
62. Simi Fehoko, WR, Stanford
Fehoko has the size and speed teams want at outside receiver, and he can win when the ball is in the air, but he’ll need to work on route running and play speed consistency to unlock his potential
63. Mike Strachan, WR, Charleston
Strachan’s size and ability to win jumpballs downfield makes him exactly the kind of prospect you want to stash late in deep league rookie drafts. It will take time to see if his ability will translate to the NFL, but he was highly productive in the way you want to see from a future pro that plays at a lower level in college.
64. Hunter Long, TE, Boston College
Long doesn’t have a high ceiling, but he will be a trusted target with good hands and good enough speed. In the right situation, he could flirt with top 10-12 tight end production because of the low bar for fantasy relevance at the position.
65. Demetric Felton, RB/WR, UCLA
Felton projects as a Nyheim Hines type without the fifth gear. He could be used enough in the passing game to have fantasy relevance as a running back in deep PPR leagues.
66. Dazz Newsome, WR, North Carolina
Newsome’s fantasy ceiling is limited as a slot/returner, but if he becomes more of a technician, he could be productive in that role.
67. Patrick Surtain Jr., CB, Alabama
Surtain should be the first rookie corner off of the board in IDP leagues and in the NFL draft. He will match up with #1 receivers right away if he lands in Dallas, and he is a quality tackler to go with top-end man coverage ability.
68. Jaret Patterson, RB, Buffalo
Patterson is a mighty mite who will get as much out of his game and frame as he can, but that might not be good enough to be more than the third best back on his NFL roster at any aspect of the position’s duties.
69. Khalil Herbert, RB, Virginia Tech
Herbert is a smart runner with good vision and feet, but he’s not really elusive or creative, and he’s not a three down back. His fantasy upside is modest, but he could produce in an early down role if injuries or the right situation gives him the opportunity.
70. Elijah Mitchell, RB, Louisiana-Lafayette
Mitchell runs with urgency and a slashing narrow base. He can contribute as a receiver, but doesn’t really add value to his touches and looks more like a role player than a future starter.
71. Jermar Jefferson, RB, Oregon State
Many like Jefferson more than I do, but he only projects as a replacement level zone runner without the skills to stay on the field for passing downs.
72. Kenny Yeboah, TE, Ole Miss
Yeboah doesn’t have the blocking chops to be an inline tight end, but he is good and fast enough to merit monitoring as a move tight end who will be valued more for his pass-catching as a likely third-day pick.
73. Tommy Tremble, TE, Notre Dame
Tremble could be like Will Dissly, a tight end taken for his blocking that ends up showing latent receiving ability was untapped.
74. Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
Barmore’s gap-shooting skills will translate to production in the NFL and he will be the first defensive tackle in this draft albeit in a weak class. He’ll be the eighth Alabama defensive lineman drafted in the first two rounds since 2016.
75. Baron Browning, LB, Ohio State
Browning’s ability to contribute in coverage and rush the passer will provide value, and he has the size and tools to be a three-down linebacker, but the instincts and recognition are lacking and could doom him to a role player destiny.
76. Josh Imatorbhebhe, WR, Illinois
It will take a while before we can see if Imatorbhebhe’s measurables, including rare leaping ability, will translate to NFL production, but his potential will get him a shot, if not multiple shots.
77. Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern
Newsome’s tools aren’t as flashy as Horn and Surtain, but he is very instinctive and effective and plays with intelligence and effort in all aspects of the game. He’ll almost certainly go in the first round.
78. Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
Horn will likely be gone in the Top 12-15 picks. He can be a shutdown corner one-on-one but needs to get less grabby and work on tackling.
79. Austin Watkins, WR, UAB
Watkins isn’t going to be a true difference maker in the NFL, but he can win the ball in the air with strong hands and a rugged edge, and he should be able to become a consistent contributor.
80. Richie Grant, S, UCF
Grant is a true ballhawk, but that might station him in centerfield, hurting his IDP potential. He can crash downhill to make a play vs the run, but Grant can also cover tight ends 1-on-1, another trade-off where NFL value doesn’t equal fantasy value.
81. Pooka Williams, RB, Kansas
Williams has off-field questions, and he’s too small to be an NFL running back, but some team will want to try to harness his combination of quickness, speed, and footwork and find a home for him in their offense.
82. Javian Hawkins, RB, Louisville
Hawkins phone booth quicks are NFL quality and fun to watch, but he is small and will probably be a manufactured touch player in the NFL.. If he can improve as a receiver, he could be developed into a committee back with a defined role.
83. Tre Nixon, WR, UCF
Nixon is a developmental prospect who missed a lot of 2020 with a shoulder injury. He has juice at all three levels but projects mostly as a field stretcher who has to improve his hands and route running to be more than that in the NFL.
84. Trevon Grimes, WR, Florida
Grimes is huge with good hands and toughness, but he lacks athleticism and isn’t enough of a technician to transcend that limitation. He’s probably only going to be a WR4/5 in the NFL.
85. Tutu Atwell, WR, Louisville
Atwell’s speed is unquestioned, but his ability to hang in the NFL around 150 pounds very much is in question. He should still get drafted and stick on a roster, and perhaps even make some plays and provide value, but his very slight frame greatly limits his fantasy potential.
86. Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama
Once a blue chip prospect ticketed for the top half of the first round, Moses appears to have lost something he might not ever get back after a 2019 knee injury.
87. Matt Bushman, TE, BYU
Bushman is old for a prospect, but he is a polished receiver with great hands and a good enough blocker to become part of an NFL offense if he can get over the achilles injury that ended his 2020.
88. Payton Turner, DE, Houston
Turner has length and strength and projects well as an end who can play in a 4-3 or a 3-4 and maybe slide inside as a pass rusher. He has a lot of room to grow as a pass rusher but will take patience to harvest IDP fantasy value.
89. Buddy Johnson, LB, Texas A&M
Johnson is a power player who is still developing as a linebacker. He may never stick as a passing down factor, but Johnson’s football character and physicality will help his game grow and possibly surprise.
90. Monty Rice, LB, Georgia
Rice’s IDP fantasy upside is limited by his two-down profile, but he can be very productive against the run.
91. Chris Evans, RB, Michigan
Evans barely played last year, but he has an NFL frame and athleticism and good skills as a receiving back, so he could hang on a roster and develop to carve out a role in time.
92. Andre Cisco, S, Syracuse
Cisco makes big plays and gives up big plays. That trade-off is much less palatable in the NFL than it is in college. If he can clean up his game, Cisco will be a very good NFL and fantasy safety contributing in all aspects but the game, but he will be a liability if he doesn’t.
93. Kene Nwangwu, RB, Iowa State
Nwangwu will try to stick on a roster as a kick returner and hope that the finer points of being a running back can catch up to his elite straight-line speed.
94. Ben Skowronek, WR, Notre Dame
Skowronek won’t make it in the NFL as a wide receiver, but if he is converted to tight end, he has the potential to be a productive contributor with good hands and game in the air.
95. Larry Rountree, RB, Missouri
Rountree is the kind of back every team can use at the end of the roster, which may eventually get him opportunity and production, but he is a replaceable talent and will be outshined by better physical talents.
96. Ihmir Smith-Marsette, WR, Iowa
Smith-Marsette is yet another receiver who has speed but needs to improve in multiple aspects of the game to unlock its value. His ability as a returner should buy him some time to do that.
97. Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest
What is a contested-catch specialist with below-average speed worth? Surratt has a calling card, but what he offers isn’t that hard to find, especially if he projects as a big slot only.
98. Isaiah McDuffie, LB, Boston College
McDuffie plays like his hair is on fire and finds the ball, but looks out of place in coverage. That will limit his fantasy upside, but he is the type that can win over fans and maybe coaches.
99. Javon Holland, S, Oregon
Holland projects as a strong contributor to a secondary and second-day pick, but it might be in a nickel safety role because of a lack of top-end athleticism or size.
100. Frank Darby, WR, Arizona State
Darby is a developmental downfield receiver who has proven himself as a vertical threat but unless he becomes more consistent and learns more of the route tree, his ceiling is as a very narrow role player.
2-QB/Superflex quarterback stashes
Developmental quarterbacks aren’t worth carrying in even the deepest of 1QB dynasty leagues, but the rise of 2QB/Superflex leagues makes them worth knowing even if they aren’t Bloom 100 material.
Davis Mills, Stanford
Mills is the best of the developmental quarterbacks, but that isn’t saying much in this class. His size and arm talent will intrigue teams looking 3-4 years down the line.
Kellen Mond, Texas A&M
Mond has the speed to add value as a runner, which should catch our eye in fantasy, but he is very much a work in progress as a passer and might never be more than late career Colin Kaepernick even in a best case scenario.
Jamie Newman, Georgia
Newman is athletic and very safe with the ball, but he doesn’t have a lot of upside. The name Jacoby Brissett has been thrown out in comparison and that should give you an idea of his game.
Ian Book, Notre Dame
Book is an athletic winner, but his arm, size, accuracy, and processing are all below NFL standards and he might not stick as more than a practice squad quarterback.
Sam Ehlinger, Texas
Ehlinger isn’t an ideal prospect by any means, but his athleticism and “find a way” game could work his way into a backup job and he’ll have fantasy potential if he gets on the field.
Kyle Trask, Florida
Trask doesn’t offer much in terms of athleticism or arm talent, but he makes good decisions and is a solid touch passer, projecting as an NFL backup with a limited ceiling.
Superflex/2-QB Top 20
The complexion of rookie draft pick value is very different in superflex/2QB league in any year, but especially this year with five quarterbacks set to go in the first half of the first round.
1. Trevor Lawrence
2. Trey Lance
3. Justin Fields
4. Kyle Pitts
5. Najee Harris
6. Ja’Marr Chase
7. Zach Wilson
8. Jaylen Waddle
9. De’Vonta Smith
10. Travis Etienne
11. Elijah Moore
12. Terrace Marshall
13. Rashod Bateman
14. Mac Jones
15. Kadarius Toney
16. Rondale Moore
17. Javonte Williams
18. Trey Sermon
19. Tylan Wallace
20. Brevin Jordan
Tackle-Heavy IDP targets
Micah Parsons
Nick Bolton
Jamin Davis
Big-Play IDP targets
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
Zaven Collins
Jaelen Phillips
Azeez Ojulari
