Before we begin the rankings, the most important strategy tip is to take strong positions on a group of 1-2 teams on each side of the bracket. Spreading your top 10 picks out on 6-7 teams is a losing strategy. At the end of your playoff fantasy draft, you want to see two or three potential matchups in the Super Bowl that should equal a high chance of winning for you. You might not be able to pick the exact teams that you want, but it is important to roll with the flow of the draft. If you wanted Mahomes, but had to settle for Rodgers, then you are going to favor Packers over Chiefs for the rest of your draft. Much more than a typical fantasy draft, your early picks should dictate the mid and late parts of your draft.
A Note on Playoff Picks
Take a stand on the outcome of the playoff brackets with your picks, and adjust rankings to fit your preferences. Some of these calls are 52/48 and the way they break can greatly affect projecting the next round in the bracket, but relying on small margins to make selections is the essence of what we do in fantasy football.
Wild Card picks in order of confidence
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
Confidence Level: High
Patrick Mahomes II has played the Steelers twice. In the first one, he threw six touchdowns. In the second, the Chiefs won 36-10 even though they didn’t have Travis Kelce. The Steelers offense is anemic and the Chiefs defense has been one of the hotter units in the second half of the season. As Matt Verderame said, if the Steelers win, there should be an investigation.
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
Confidence Level: High
The Eagles strength of running the ball on offense and weakness of stopping the pass on defense match up horribly with the Bucs strengths on each side of the ball. The Eagles got a first round pick plus for Carson Wentz and made the playoffs, let’s consider that a big victory for Philadelphia.
Cincinnati over Las Vegas
Confidence Level: Medium-High
The Raiders winning four straight to close the season and make the playoffs (Thanks! - from a Steelers fan) is a great story, but they beat the Nick Mullens-led Browns, the Drew Lock-led Broncos, the Carson Wentz-led Colts, and the Chargers. The Bengals win over the Chiefs at home eclipses all of those wins combined, and the Raiders offense just can’t keep up with the Bengals, at least on paper.
Buffalo over New England
Confidence Level: Medium
The Patriots had to have everything break right in terrible conditions for Josh Allen to eke out a win in Buffalo earlier this year, and the Bills handled the Patriots in their Foxboro matchup. Mac Jones isn’t equipped to lead any sort of comeback at this early juncture of his career. Allen has been playing poorly as of late, so it’s far from a foregone conclusion that the Bills will win this rubber match, but the difference in quarterback play and newfound balance on offense should give them a clear edge.
Arizona over Los Angeles Rams
Confidence Level: Medium
The Cardinals soundly beat the Rams 37-20 in the first matchup and lost 30-23 due to a couple of breakdowns in the deep pass defense and ill-timed interceptions. Matthew Stafford is one of the coldest quarterbacks in football right now and the Cardinals have quality wins over Tennessee, Dallas, and San Francisco, while the Rams only quality win outside of beating the Cardinals was against the Bucs. The Rams also enjoy no real home field advantage with a mixed allegiance crowd at SoFi Stadium that has a doable drive from Phoenix to support their team.
Dallas over San Francisco
Confidence Level: Medium-Low
There are a few ways the Cowboys can lose. Mike McCarthy knows how to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the playoffs, and the Cowboys were shown up by a run-heavy Broncos attack earlier this season. The 49ers have vulnerabilities in the secondary that the Cowboys can exploit, and their pass rush should ensure that they do well when Jimmy Garoppolo faces an obvious passing down.
Divisional Round picks in order of confidence
Kansas City over Buffalo
Confidence Level: Medium-High
The Bills beat the Chiefs soundly this year, but that was when both the Chiefs offense and defense were slumping. Buffalo isn’t exactly peaking right now, and they were underwhelming in the playoffs last year, even while winning twice to face the Chiefs in the AFC title game, which they were never really in, both outcoached and outplayed. If the Bills are upset by the Patriots, that could mean a rematch with the Bengals for Kansas City, so the Chiefs should be rooting for the Bills this weekend. A Patriots win would change the math on the Chiefs chances of advancing to the AFC title game for a fourth straight season.
Dallas over Tampa Bay
Confidence Level: Medium-Low
The Bucs are going to have a tough matchup in the divisional round, whether its against the winner of the NFC West rubber match (the Rams have beaten Tom Brady in each of the last two seasons), or Dallas. The Bucs can not face the 49ers in the divisional round, which would probably be their most favorable matchup. These two teams squared off in Week 1 to open the season, and the Bucs barely won in a result that showed just how close the teams were in quality despite very different 2020 outcomes. Dallas has the pass rush to put pressure on Brady by only sending four, and they have the passing game to put stress on the weakness of the Bucs defense in the secondary. This is close to a toss-up game, but a matchup against an NFC West team would be too.
Green Bay over Arizona
Confidence Level: Medium-Low
The Packers should be Cowboys fans this weekend as a 49ers win would almost certainly mean San Francisco would be taking a trip to Green Bay in a matchup that has produced mixed results. All of the home teams winning would be fine by the Packers as they blew out the Rams earlier this season. A matchup against the Cardinals won’t be as welcomed as the Cardinals had chances to beat the Packers at the end of their matchup earlier this season, but couldn’t finish the deal. Kyler Murray is a great equalizer and the Cardinals are getting back J.J. Watt (we’ll see about DeAndre Hopkins), but the Packers are also getting healthy at the right time and Aaron Rodgers is dialed in.
Tennessee over Cincinnati
Confidence Level: Low
It would be easy to pick the Bengals here because their passing game can make Derrick Henry less important and de-incentivize a game script where the Titans grind out long drives. The Titans would be much better off if the Patriots or Raiders win on the road in the first round and allow them to dodge a very dangerous Joe Burrow, but this team has found a way no matter what obstacles they have faced, the defense has improved over the course of the season, and they should be rested and as healthy as they have been since Week 1.
Conference Championship picks in order of confidence
Kansas City over Tennessee
Confidence Level: Medium
It’s simple analysis, but the Bengals are the best situated team to knock off the Chiefs by virtue of their recent win. Otherwise, the Chiefs have played like the clear AFC favorite as of late, not the Titans. The Titans haven’t had Derrick Henry, and they beat the Chiefs 27-3 with Henry earlier this year, but the Chiefs were at the bottom of their slump on both sides of the ball. The Titans also beat the Chiefs during the 2019 regular season only to lose to them 35-24 in the AFC title game, although that was in Kansas City and this matchup would be in Nashville. Part of the pick here reflects the low confidence that Tennessee even makes it here if they face the Bengals, but the Chiefs could also face the Bengals in the divisional round, or the Raiders could allow both teams to dodge Cincinnati. The permutations are mind-boggling, but when it comes down to it, the Chiefs are a better team with more playoff experience.
Dallas over Green Bay
Confidence Level: Low
Let’s call it the rematch of the “Dez caught it” game. Green Bay is a better bet to make it this far and they would host the game, but the Cowboys pass rush is an x-factor and that’s how Tampa Bay beat Aaron Rodgers when he hosted the NFC title game last year. This feels like a true coinflip game whether it’s Dallas, Tampa Bay, or an NFC West team that has won two games to get this far. Ironically, the biggest issue to overcome might be Mike McCarthy’s in-game decision-making, which weighed down Rodgers when they were together in Green Bay.
Tiered Team Ranking By Range of Outcomes/Fantasy Offensive Potential
First Tier - Cornerstones
Kansas City - The most likely team to play four games, and the offense is clicking at the right time.
Green Bay - The most likely team to play in the Super Bowl and host their conference championship game.
Dallas - Four games is well within the range of outcomes, and we know how explosive this offense can be.
Tampa Bay - Four games is well within the range of outcomes, but losing Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin has made this offense easier to defend. At least they will get Leonard Fournette back.
Second Tier - Potential League Winners with Risk
Tennessee - Derrick Henry is still a bit of an unknown and this team lost to the Jets and Texans, while having trouble closing out the #1 seed against that same Texans team that beat them earlier in the year.
Buffalo - This could be a high-powered offense that plays four games, and it could be a team that is drummed out by a hated division rival in one disappointing game where Josh Allen shuts himself down.
Cincinnati - It is fun to picture this team playing four games, but they have almost no playoff experience on the roster.
Arizona - The loss of DeAndre Hopkins has made a big difference in this offense, but they have the star power on both sides of the ball to make a run.
Third Tier - Multiple Games Possible, but a Super Bowl run?
Los Angeles Rams - Matthew Stafford has been terrible at times and this team feasted on an easy schedule to win the division.
San Francisco - The 49ers can win when they get games on their preferred script, but beating Dallas and Green Bay on the road in back-to-back games is a tall order indeed.
Fourth Tier - Likely One and Done
Las Vegas - The Raiders are a great story, but the Bengals have them outgunned and the home crowd should be rabid.
New England - Bill Belichick could pull some tricks out of his sock and get a win, and this team did thump the #1 seed Titans earlier this season, but this is also a low wattage offense that could fizzle out and depart the playoffs this weekend with little or no offensive touchdowns.
Philadelphia - Jalen Hurts will have to play the game of his life to beat Tom Brady
Pittsburgh - I’ll streak down Bourbon Street if the Steelers beat the Chiefs
Strategy Cliff’s Notes
- With 14 playoff teams and six wild card games it is less important than ever to get wild card weekend scoring with your early picks.
- The Packers and Chiefs should be most, if not all of the picks in the first round. Have clarity on your preferred teams to choose from in the 2nd-4th rounds. Nailing a team that will play 3-4 games with those picks will likely determine who wins your league
- You can win without strong running back scoring because of uncertainty at the position due to injury
- Wild card weekend scoring will be easy to come by later in your draft. Focus on getting big pieces of your Super Bowl/Conference Championship favorites with your early picks.
Quarterback
1. Patrick Mahomes II
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Dak Prescott
4. Tom Brady
5. Josh Allen
6. Joe Burrow
7. Kyler Murray
8. Ryan Tannehill
9. Matthew Stafford
10. Derek Carr
11. Jimmy Garoppolo
12. Jalen Hurts
13. Mac Jones
14. Ben Roethlisberger
Notes: The Steelers are like a bye that gives Mahomes a chance to score beaucoup points, so he’s the clear #1…After Rodgers, your next pick should be the quarterback of the team you expect to face him in the NFC title game, assuming the Packers advance in the divisional round…Burrow and Murray might have a better chance of playing 3-4 games than Allen, but Allen has a higher per game ceiling. It’s a difficult choice from the three, but all are good values…Hurts and Carr are nice quarterbacks to pair up with Rodgers to try to get big points in a one-and-done wild card performance…Don’t bother spending a pick on a second quarterback if you take Mahomes in the first.
Running Back
1. Aaron Jones
2. Derrick Henry **Monitor Status**
3. Ezekiel Elliott
4. Joe Mixon
5. Leonard Fournette **Monitor Status**
6. A.J. Dillon
7. Clyde Edwards-Helaire **Monitor Status**
8. Darrel Williams **Monitor Status**
9. Devin Singletary
10. James Conner
11. Chase Edmonds **Monitor Status**
12. Tony Pollard **Monitor Status**
13. Sony Michel
14. Elijah Mitchell
15. Josh Jacobs
16. Najee Harris
17. Damien Harris
18. Rhamondre Stevenson
19. Cam Akers
20. Jerick McKinnon
21. Miles Sanders **Monitor Status**
22. KeShawn Vaughn
23. Samaje Perine
24. LeVeon Bell
25. Dontrell Hilliard
26. DOnta Foreman
27. Eno Benjamin
28. Brandon Bolden
29. Jordan Howard
30. Patrick Taylor
31. Kenneth Gainwell
32. Zack Moss
33. Jeff Wilson
34. Corey Clement
35. JaMycal Hasty
36. Kyle Juszczyk
37. Ronald Jones II
38. Peyton Barber
39. Boston Scott
40. Jalen Richard
Notes: The running back crop in the playoffs continues to be underwhelming and banged up. You can win your playoff league without a lot of scoring from the position…Michel, Jacobs, Mitchell, and the Harrises make it easy to get some wild card weekend running back scoring without spending a high pick…Henry is a risk/reward pick because of his unknown status and the Titans potential to be one and done. Gut feeling is to avoid, but he could also be a league winner…Dillon is the cheapest high ceiling Packer…Edwards-Helaire might be healthier than Williams although Williams should get higher value touches. Taking both at the turn could be a winning strategy McKinnon is a good later pick because both backs ahead of him are coming into the postseason on the injury report…Make sure to take Foreman if you spend an early pick on Henry and Vaughn/Bell if you spend an early pick on Fournette.
Wide Receiver
1. Davante Adams
2. Tyreek Hill **Monitor Status**
3. Mike Evans
4. Stefon Diggs
5. JaMarr Chase
6. Cooper Kupp
7. Amari Cooper
8. CeeDee Lamb
9. A.J. Brown
10. Tee Higgins
11. Deebo Samuel
12. Allen Lazard
13. Breshad Perriman
14. Cedrick Wilson
15. Tyler Boyd
16. Christian Kirk
17. Byron Pringle
18. Mecole Hardman
19. Marquez Valdes-Scantling
20. Julio Jones
21. Emmanuel Sanders
22. DeAndre Hopkins **Monitor Status**
23. Cole Beasley
24. Gabriel Davis
25. A.J. Green
26. Odell Beckham
27. Brandon Aiyuk
28. Hunter Renfrow
29. Zay Jones
30. DeVonta Smith
31. Demarcus Robinson
32. Tyler Johnson
33. Scott Miller
34. Cyril Grayson **Monitor Status**
35. Antoine Wesley
36. Van Jefferson
37. Jauan Jennings
38. Quez Watkins
39. Diontae Johnson
40. Chase Claypool
41. Jakobi Meyers
42. Nelson Agholor
43. Kendrick Bourne
44. Josh Gordon
45. Isaiah McKenzie
46. Ray-Ray McCloud
47. Equanimeous St. Brown
48. Malik Turner
49. Noah Brown
50. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Notes: There are lots of players who can give you robust wild card weekend scoring at a cheap cost, so make sure your early picks align with teams that you expect (or know) to play in the second round… Perriman and Wilson are underrated as #3 options who could play four games. Take them both and you have a good chance at a receiver who will be important in the NFC title game, if not Super Bowl… Hopkins is tough to nail down value-wise as the Cardinals haven’t told us much about his status, but he’s worth a pick once players likely to contribute significant points beyond the wild card weekend dry up… You should be able to align your later wide receiver picks with teams that you expect to advance… Steelers, Patriots, Raiders, and Eagles receivers will be there for you late if you neglect wide receiver early… Make sure to take at least one of Pringle, Hardman, and Robinson if you take Hill early.
Tight End
1. Travis Kelce
2. Dalton Schultz
3. Rob Gronkowski
4. Zach Ertz
5. Dawson Knox
6. Darren Waller
7. George Kittle
8. Tyler Higbee
9. Dallas Goedert
10. Pat Freiermuth
11. Josiah Deguara
12. Marcedes Lewis
13. C.J. Uzomah **Monitor Status**
14. Anthony Firkser
15. Geoff Swaim
16. Hunter Henry
17. Cameron Brate
18. Blake Bell
19. Noah Gray
20. Jonnu Smith
21. Blake Jarwin
Notes: Kelce should go no later than fourth in drafts and there’s an argument to take him #1… Once again, wild card weekend production is abundant (Goedert and Freiermuth late), so don’t take a tight end early unless you are confident in his team to play at least two games. Let that sort out the Schultz/Ertz/Knox tier for you… Kittle and Waller are cold and more likely to be one and done than the lesser fantasy options listed ahead of them…Tight end allows you to get some smaller pieces of Kansas City and Green Bay later.
Kicker
1. Harrison Butker
2. Mason Crosby
3. Greg Zuerlein
4. Ryan Succop
5. Evan McPherson
6. Randy Bullock
7. Tyler Bass
8. Matt Prater
9. Matt Gay
10. Nick Folk
11. Robbie Gould
12. Daniel Carlson
13. Jake Elliott
14. Chris Boswell
D/ST
1. Kansas City
2. Green Bay
3. Tampa Bay
4. Dallas
5. Buffalo
6. Tennessee
7. Arizona
8. Cincinnati
9. New England
10. LA Rams
11. San Francisco
12. Las Vegas
13. Pittsburgh
14. Philadelphia
Notes: Be willing to break the seal on kicker and defense with your Super Bowl favorites. They will probably add more to your bottom line than the position players you are passing on.
