Succeeding in an auction takes a little more preparation than a normal serpentine draft. You need to approximate what the prices will look like, figure out your own strategy for how you want to attack the draft, divide up your cap dollars among the positions according to their importance, and then map out what you think a blueprint for success looks like.
For this blueprint, we will assume the following conditions:
- 12 Team League
- $200 salary cap
- Starting Roster: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF
- Each roster will have 18 players
- PPR Scoring
- Normal redraft setting where teams set their lineups weekly and can add and drop players from the waiver wire
In an auction, it is not as simple as showing up and trying to buy cheap players. Oftentimes cheaper players are priced that way for a reason, and other times those players can be good values but not provide the punch and upside you want your team to have. To find value and find top players, you’ll have to use your blueprint to keep you on course. Here is how to do that.
Player Auction Values
Auctions have come far enough that you don’t need to reinvent the wheel to develop values for all the players. If you want to come up with your own values, Footballguys staffer Jeff Pasquino breaks down how he goes about generating dollar amounts for players in your auction.
Otherwise, the easiest way to approach your values is to use the average auction value sheet that I have worked up for you. You can also find different sets of auction values on the internet to give you an idea of what the market is doing and help you dial into what your own values should be.
At a minimum, you should come up with tier breaks at every position and make sure the prices reflect the drops in value. For example, after the fifth running back (Ezekiel Elliott) is off the board, I have a tier break before RB6, Aaron Jones. There is a corresponding drop of $4 in value from Elliott to Jones on my AAV sheet. This is just an example, and those tier breaks could differ on your own AAV sheet if you want to make your own values.
Remember that if you aren’t following Pasquino’s method, it isn’t necessary to be exact when apportioning the dollar values up and down the draft sheet. It is more important to get a snapshot of how the community is seeing auction values in the days leading up to your draft by compiling values that accurately reflect the community’s opinions. You can keep a separate column like the one titled “Worth” in my AAV sheet for your own valuation. But, when you get in the auction, understand that the AAV you have is just a guideline. Player prices fluctuate from draft to draft based on when they are nominated, who is bidding, and what money is left in the room. Don’t be too rigid following AAV, or you will have an uneven draft. Instead, follow your pre-draft plan, and if a player you want fits your allotted salary for that slot, you will stay on track.
Allocating Your Cap Dollars
In recent years I have found it profitable to follow a strategy where I do the following:
- Roster one good running back and one nearly elite wide receiver
- A quarterback who is not bargain basement but won’t command a top tier price – usually something in the $7-$12 range
- Several cheap tight ends that give me a chance to find a breakout player but don’t command a large percentage of the salary cap
- Attack the wide receiver value from Keenan Allen (Consensus WR9) down to Deebo Samuel (WR40) and land as many as highly ranked players from this group as cheaply as possible
- Find one decent running back as an RB2, and then don’t devote too much cap space to running backs ranked below Darrell Henderson (RB23)
- Spend almost nothing on Kicker and Team Defense
Finding Value During the Draft
You should compare your knowledge from the AAV sheet with the numbers you have allocated to the positions on your blueprint. This enables you to have a snapshot of what your team will look like should you land the perfect player for every spot. Drafting the perfect player means that you rostered the best possible player you could afford for that position using your blueprint.
A good way to find value is to make sure to remember that you cannot let tiers get too scarce before you attack them. Nominating a player you want, like Allen Robinson, will have a higher probability of finding value if Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, and Keenan Allen are still available.
You can also find value by paying attention to players who have not generated a lot of buzz from their camp performance, preseason game performance, or coming back from a big injury in 2020. There are plenty of players who fantasy drafters disrespect for some reason. Finding those players usually nets strong value in an auction. Tyler Lockett is an example of this for 2021 drafts.
Your 2021 Auction Blueprint
Based on these ideas, here is what a possible roster could look like for your 18-man roster in a 12-team league. If you land a player for cheaper than you had allocated, don’t be afraid to overpay at another position using that extra money to improve somewhere else. Value is only important insofar as it helps further your strategy. Don’t get caught up trying to score a deal on every player. If you pay more than a player is worth but land an impact player within the framework of your strategy, it does not matter what the raw dollar value was. Nobody will remember if you overpaid $8 for Justin Jefferson if he goes off for 116 catches, 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns. You can’t take the money with you, so go get your guys, but keep track of where you are relative to what you wanted to spend. Here is my favorite strategy and the team you can try and land from it. Please continue reading below to find out how to execute it.
Starting Lineup
- QB1 ($9) – Ryan Tannehill or Jalen Hurts
- RB1 ($41) – Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, or Joe Mixon
- RB2 ($30) – DAndre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, or Chris Carson
- WR1 ($33) – DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Brown, Calvin Ridley, or Justin Jefferson
- WR2 ($22) – Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, or CeeDee Lamb
- WR3 ($17) – Tee Higgins, D.J. Moore, Chris Godwin, or Tyler Lockett
- TE1 ($6) – Noah Fant or Tyler Higbee
- K ($1) – Rodrigo Blankenship, Tyler Bass, or Matt Prater
- DEF ($2) – Washington Football Team, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams, or Pittsburgh Steelers
Bench
- QB2 ($3) – Kirk Cousins (or no QB, or all upside QB)
- RB3 ($10) – James Robinson or Raheem Mostert
- RB4 ($5) – A.J. Dillon, Jamaal Williams, or James Conner
- RB5 ($4) – Gus Edwards or Nyheim Hines
- WR4 ($9) – Robby Anderson or Courtland Sutton
- WR5 ($4) – Mike Williams or Antonio Brown
- WR6 ($1) – Darnell Mooney or Jakobi Meyers
- TE2 ($1) – Gerald Everett, Cole Kmet or Zach Ertz
- TE3, RB6, WR7, or DEF2 – ($2) – Rashaad Penny, Chuba Hubbard, or Tevin Coleman
Early in the Auction
Don’t forget there are often deals immediately when the draft starts. Pay attention to the possibility, and don’t be afraid to act to score a deal on an elite player. If you are in the first five nominations of the draft, you should try to push through a low Tier 1 player or a top Tier 2 level player at any position. Nominating a player like Aaron Jones or Austin Ekeler in the first three to five nominations could net a strong value.
If you don’t find a deal immediately out of the gate, you should be biding your time and not doing much initially. You can’t forfeit the chance to get top talent, so pay attention to how fast the elite players are drying up to figure out when to jump in. But generally, you want to watch the room and see how values will go before getting too involved.
Early to Middle Stages
You should come out of the early part of the draft with one or two elite or nearly elite players per your blueprint. The early-to-middle stages are for building the bulk of your team through value hunting. However, the players you are landing here are still players that form the backbone of your fantasy team. It is in this zone you are chasing guys like your RB2 and your WR2 through WR4.
Stick to your blueprint so that you maintain the proper amount of flexibility later in the draft when caps start to get scarce around the room. This stage in the draft should give you a few more players at the right price. This is usually the right time to lay low with your own nominations by putting players up that you have no intention of rostering. This allows you to float through a couple of rounds while you stalk the deals. Do not try to force it in this stage. Just wait for value for the amount you have allotted in your blueprint, land your guy, and go back to looking for deals. Once again, balance the players left with how aggressive to be. You can’t always afford to wait, but in this critical stage, you can’t overpay too often, or you’ll be set up to fail later in the draft.
Middle to Late Stages
You want to be done trolling for the big pieces you need at this point. You should have landed those by now, and your focus should now be on nominating players you want who finish your roster out how you envisioned.
Remember that it is a mistake to think that teams without much money left are completely irrelevant. In this phase of the draft, you will often see teams overspending because they are desperate, using up their cap completely, or realizing they waited too long to act and now the top players are gone. This is when you may see some true outlier prices (high and low) because people have their eye on certain players they want and their caps are getting low. They’ll be loathed to bid if it costs them the player they are waiting on. As long as you have been sticking to your blueprint, you’ll have money to capitalize on those opportunities.
Final Few Rounds
When the draft is winding down, many teams will either be done or only have $1 per player left to spend. You don’t want to be one of those teams. Saving a bunch of money for the end of the draft isn’t smart, but saving a few extra dollars so you can spend $2 instead of $1 for some of these players is a good habit to get into. It is in this zone that high-value handcuffs, or high upside lottery tickets, are found.
Unless you are overly concerned for the stability of your team, you should stay away from low upside players who might plod along to a RB5 finish like Sony Michel. This stage of the draft is for finishing your team with upside or handcuffs to take your team over the top should they hit.
Positional Thoughts
Let's look at the best strategy to take at each position.
Attacking Quarterback
In recent years there has been a value pocket below the top tier due to the prevalence of two types of drafters – those who love elite quarterbacks and those who wait as long as possible to pay as little as possible for the position. Last year this produced valuable guys like Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen. This year, Jalen Hurts and Ryan Tannehill fall into this category.
Get used to the idea that you won’t have one of the top five guys this year. But it is possible to land a quarterback like Tom Brady or Russell Wilson for a few bucks over what you have allotted, so be on the lookout for that. However, if none of these four is available (Hurts, Tannehill, Brady, or Wilson) for the right price, you should pivot to someone like Kirk Cousins ($5). If that happens, you can go for a stronger backup quarterback, or better still, go for a risky high-upside player like Justin Fields or Trey Lance. Taysom Hill's situation still isn't resolved, but he would make an excellent choice here as well. Then, take the money you save and upgrade somewhere else.
If you are able to land a stable quarterback as your starter, then consider not drafting a second quarterback at all.
Landing Your Running Backs
This blueprint is not going to allow you to go for one of the top running backs. Your team will be much stronger if you resist that urge. Instead, look at Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, or Joe Mixon as your RB1. Sometimes you will find a deal on one of those, but don’t worry if you don’t. That is how it goes with running backs in auctions, and you should be prepared to pay market price (and sometimes above) to secure the top runners.
At the second running back spot, you can land DAndre Swift or J.K. Dobbins. Should that not work out, you can pivot to Chris Carson ($26), Darrell Henderson ($23), or try to find a deal on David Montgomery ($28) and then try to upgrade somewhere else.
Later on in the draft, you want to try to find a guy who can challenge for 200 touches like James Robinson or Raheem Mostert as your RB3. You can then try to get two more guys with complementary roles for the bye week value but who also have demonstrable upside should they find a bigger role. Those guys are Jamaal Williams, Gus Edwards, A.J. Dillon, and Nyheim Hines (only in PPR leagues is Hines a target here).
Wide Receiver Blueprint
Auction drafters tend to value running back points over wide receiver points. Use this to your advantage by trying to land a Top 5 wide receiver if possible. DeAndre Hopkins fits the bill, but if he doesn’t go cheaply enough, you should be able to land A.J. Brown, Calvin Ridley, or Justin Jefferson. The ideal result would be getting one of those four players and then getting Keenan Allen as your WR2. That may not work very often (you should still try) and that’s okay, but a player like Allen Robinson or Amari Cooper makes a fantastic second pass catcher.
Don’t try to force the issue at wide receiver in general. There are at least 30 receivers who have the potential to return WR2 numbers, so focus on landing the best ones you can in that price range. Some of those guys can be impact players for your squad but in your WR3 spot! These guys include Chris Godwin, D.J. Moore, Tyler Lockett, and Tee Higgins.
Go after your WR4 and WR5 by waiting on players like Robby Anderson, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Antonio Brown, and Mike Williams. The sheer number of wide receivers means that you will find deals that fit your blueprint if you are patient. Your WR6 should only you cost you $1, so try and find someone you like but don’t stress too much because that is one of the spots on your roster you can use for free agents when the season starts. I'm partial to Jakobi Meyers at the end of drafts, but find one you like and bring it home.
Tight End Thoughts
It is possible to draft a Top 3 tight end – Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, or George Kittle – and still have a good team, but it will hurt your bench depth. If you are a skilled manipulator of the waiver wire and your FAAB budget, then this may be a play you want to make.
However, this blueprint assumes that the money will be better spent acquiring values and depth that can get you through a long season. It is unlikely you will roster one of the top three guys, and fairly unlikely you’ll have a shot at Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, or T.J. Hockenson. If you can score any of those three for the $6 you had allocated, then go for it. Otherwise, concentrate on Noah Fant or Tyler Higbee.
Tight end can be a volatile position, however, so taking another one or even two more is a profitable play in the long run. Cheap options like Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, and Zach Ertz can often be had for only $1, so if you have to cut money somewhere, you can come off of Fant/Higbee and take two guys from the lower tiers to try and piece together starter-level production. Try starting with Irv Smith, who should be a little cheaper than what you had allocated (<$6) and then go down the list from there. A shotgun approach to tight end – casting a wide net – is a smart play in auction rooms if the roster limits allow.
Kicker Plan
Don’t pay more than $1 for your kicker. Last year those who paid up for Harrison Butker and Justin Tucker learned this lesson. Last year you could find a kicker on the wire, like Jason Sanders, Rodrigo Blankenship, or Tyler Bass, if you didn’t land a good one in your draft. Nevertheless, there are plenty of solid options this year that can be had for $1.
Team Defense Approach
Some leagues award more points for defenses, and in those leagues, you may want to allocate an extra couple of dollars for the position. Otherwise, spending more than $2 on this position is not a good idea. Drafters generally agree with this thought in most rooms, so getting a top defense may not be as hard as you think. Target Tampa Bay, Washington, Los Angeles (Rams), or Pittsburgh (in that order), and you should snag one for $2, or perhaps $3 if you have the money. Don’t invest too much in the position and it's a reasonable strategy to try and get Baltimore or Buffalo for $1 and spend the extra couple bucks elsewhere. The 49ers open with the Lions this year, so they're a nice $1 defense with a good Week 1 matchup to consider. Streaming is always an option at defense so don't get hung up or spend too much.
Final Thoughts
- Pay attention to the tiers above anything else. If you need a player from a tier that is drying up, the best way to attack it is not to wait but to nominate from the tier before it is down to the last 1-2 guys. Overpaying for the last guy in the tier happens in every draft. Try not to be one of those who got caught waiting.
- Early in the draft, you want to define which way you will be going by nominating some players you want in tiers that are still full of talent. The cardinal rule of drafting is that if prices are way too high, they will come back down. However, if bidding is fast and furious, you need to keep your targets in your pocket until people have calmed down and the prices return to earth. Judging whether or not you can wait is your job, one that can only be done by the drafter assessing the room during the draft.
- If you aren’t going to bid on the elite running backs, sometimes you can gain an advantage by NOT nominating them early. Attacking other positions or lower-ranked running backs can sometimes get you a small discount while people hang back for the top guys still on the board.
- Early in a draft, if you think some lower-ranked players you don’t want to have on your team or are getting a significant amount of preseason buzz, then don’t hesitate to nominate them way earlier than normal. Oftentimes a player like Elijah Moore, who would be a $2-$5 player, will go for $7-$10 when caps are full and people are having fun throwing money around.
- Similarly, nominate the top kickers and let people pay $2-$4 for them. The same tactic can apply to defenses if you have an overly aggressive room.
- Always keep track of every team’s cap situation as each player is rostered. When you are in a bidding war, or later in the draft, this information tells you how serious your opponent is for a player or if you can stick them because they are bidding you up.
- Use the Draft Dominator to keep track of all your cap situations. Learn to nominate players to target teams with a lot of caps or nominate players that will further your strategy.
- Stick to the blueprint you’ve conceived in the hours and hours of preparation leading up to the draft. This blueprint inspires calm and collected thoughts while being in the middle of an adrenaline-filled moment during the draft.
Above all, remember that no strategy is foolproof, and there are limitless situations you can see in any auction. Sometimes your plans won’t work, but if you are prepared, you know where to pivot. The name of the game is flexibility. Use your AAV as a guide. Use your blueprint as a guide. But never stick so dogmatically to either one that you lose sight of what you are trying to build. This blueprint should yield you a strong team with depth, upside, and the punch to win a title. Happy auction drafting!
