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Top 5 Passing Matchups

Buffalo at Jacksonville

The Bills right now look to be one of the favorites in the AFC and a large part of that is Josh Allen returning to MVP form after struggling early in the season. Allen has been remarkably efficient on the year; while he sits just 14^th in yards per attempt, he’s 7^th in adjusted net yardage, which factors in touchdowns, interceptions, and sacks. In other words, he’s making big plays beyond the scale of his volume and avoiding drive-killing mistakes. He throws to a diverse and gifted receiving corps, starring go-to man Stefon Diggs (6 catches and 72 yards a game) and a handful of situational targets. Last week it was slot man Cole Beasley (10 for 110) leading the way, but Emmanuel Sanders, Gabriel Davis, and the tight ends also find their way into the box score when needed.

The Jaguars’ weak pass defense wasn’t quite at rock bottom when Tua Tagovailoa carved them apart (33 of 47, 329 yards, 2 touchdowns) in London 3 weeks ago. Last Sunday, fresh off a bye, they allowed beleaguered Seahawks’ backup Geno Smith to complete 20 of 24 and throw 2 touchdowns of his own. There may indeed be no bottom for this talent-starved unit. They’ve spent the past half-decade dealing away talent and drafting poorly in its place. Now, they trot out a cornerback rotation that’s shaky on a good day. Shaquill Griffin, Tre Herndon, and Nevin Lawson have been predictably picked on all year, and rookie Tyson Campbell has yet to find his footing. Together they’ve allowed massive stat lines to wideouts week after week, with 6 of them (plus Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki) clearing 100 yards already. The secondary is done no favors by a weak pass rush that sits tied 30^th league-wide with just 12 sacks. Overall, they make for a prime fantasy matchup every week, regardless of game flow. If ho-hum passers like Tagovailoa, Tyrod Taylor, and Teddy Bridgewater can maximize their upside here, it’s scary to imagine what Josh Allen can do.

LA Rams vs Tennessee

The Rams offense didn’t break a sweat in rolling over the Texans last Sunday, with Matthew Stafford needing just 3 quarters to notch his third 300-yard day of the past 4 weeks. (In that fourth game, also limited by a Rams blowout, he hit on 22 of 28 throws and fired 4 touchdowns.) Stafford is a true MVP candidate, leading the league in adjusted yardage, net yardage, sack rate, and QBR. His immediate chemistry with Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods has been stunning, and he hasn’t neglected side weapons like Tyler Higbee and Van Jefferson. Kupp has led the charge, breaking out as more than a slot specialist while posting 8-116-1 per game. He’s topped 90 yards in 7 of 8 games thus far. Coach Sean McVay’s unit is explosive and built for a shootout, which is likely on the horizon against the scrambling Titans.

The Titans’ overall landscape is about to change with Derrick Henry on the shelf. That shift will have a ripple effect on the flow of Titans games, and this leaky secondary could be exposed even more than it has been. They’ve given up 284 yards a game through the air, with 10 opposing wideouts topping 70 yards thus far. There’s been slight improvement lately, particularly in the way they held off Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs two weeks ago. But this remains a suspect group of cornerbacks that’s down several bodies from Week 1. The team had hoped to squeeze another impact season or two from Janoris Jenkins, but the journeyman has disappointed from the opening gun. The talent around him is lacking, too, with Greg Mabin, Breon Borders, and rookie Elijah Molden all wildly inconsistent on their best days. Mabin was the most picked-on of the bunch last Sunday, but all have struggled noticeably for most of the year. Star safety Kevin Byard can do only so much on the back end, and Sean McVay’s Rams will be looking for those creases between the shaky cornerbacks.

Green Bay at Kansas City

The Packers were hit with devastating news this week that Aaron Rodgers will not be able to play due to testing positive for Covid-19. This ultimately means that Jordan Love will get his first NFL start which will be a big moment for the former first-round pick. Some good news in Green Bay is that they will at least get Davanta Adams, Allen Lazard, and potentially Marquez Valdes-Scantling back, and few receivers can steer a game like Adams. His absurd 32% target share has afforded him averages of 7 catches and 106 yards a game. Lazard and Randall Cobb are used only situationally, but both boast sneaky touchdown appeal. Cobb was thrown to 4 times from inside the 10 last Thursday night, scoring twice. They’ll all see even more red-zone opportunity with tight end Robert Tonyan Jr on the shelf and little in his place.

The Chiefs did an admirable job of bullying Daniel Jones and the Giants around Monday night, but that’s hardly a barometer for success. Stronger passers have shredded this group consistently, including Justin Herbert (281 yards and 4 touchdowns), Josh Allen (315 and 3), and even Jalen Hurts (387 and 2). The cornerback group continues to underachieve, with L’Jarius Sneed and Charvarius Ward both crashing hard after strong 2020s. With a dynamic pass rush up front, this unit could be salvaged with some reliable safety play, but that’s been arguably the biggest weakness. Daniel Sorensen is a box-only safety and has long been a target in coverage, while Tyrann Mathieu tends to yo-yo in effectiveness from week to week. This group has been beaten both underneath and over the top, and it’s been no match for playmakers like A.J. Brown, Mike Williams, and Marquise Brown. Davante Adams’ Sunday outlook could hardly be brighter.

Miami vs Houston

The Dolphins pass game struggled last week in a very difficult matchup, but there is some optimism in Miami as the offense has been better as of late compared to early in the season. Tua Tagovailoa had shown progress over his prior 2 games, hitting on 75% of his throws and averaging 310 yards, with 6 touchdowns. There’s always hope the offense will open up one of these weeks, sending the dynamic Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker downfield more often. In the meantime, tight end Mike Gesicki has emerged as an elite producer at the tight end position this season. He’s cleared 85 yards in 3 of his last 6 games, drawing 19% of team targets. If Tagovailoa sees another high-volume game of 40+ attempts, he’ll likely produce off the charts in this cherry matchup.

The Texans haven’t allowed many massive fantasy lines through the air; scoring 15 points a game doesn’t force many opponents to throw the ball. But when they do, they tend to find all the success they need. Texans opponents rank 31^st in attempts per game, but 29^th in net yardage allowed and 30^th in air yardage. Quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and Matthew Stafford have dominated for 2-3 quarters before throttling down or bowing out of blowouts. It’s easy to see why: there’s shockingly little talent left up front or on the back end. It’s stunning that Vernon Hargreaves is still given NFL cornerback snaps, let alone the 90-100% he draws in Houston. The fact that he’s leaned on so heavily speaks volumes about the personnel This group has had no answer for Cooper Kupp, DeAndre Hopkins, or even T.Y. Hilton in recent weeks. If the Miami air attack is going to truly erupt at all here in 2021, it should be in this matchup.

Indianapolis vs NY Jets

The Colts air attack isn’t particularly potent, averaging just 244 yards and 1.8 touchdowns a game. But Carson Wentz is settling in more and more, and he’s found a dynamic target in second-year man Michael Pittman, who keeps winning at the catch point all over the field. It’s always a fantasy boost to find an offense with mid-level volume that concentrates its throws on a single guy. Pittman can both work across the field on drag and crossing routes and win downfield in tight coverage. Despite up-and-down passing volume, he’s cleared 85 yards and found the end zone in 3 of the last 4 weeks, thanks to a team-high % target share from Wentz. There’s not much dynamism beyond Pittman, especially with T.Y. Hilton sitting again with a concussion. But Wentz-to-Pittman is a connection that could blow some of Week 9’s more established names out of the water in this matchup.

The Jets pass defense has definitely taken a step forward from its pitiful last few seasons. But that’s damning with faint praise, as those groups had nowhere to go but up. This remains a strong matchup for fantasy players to exploit, a fact that’s been driven home especially hard over the past four weeks. Those opponents averaged 321 yards a game and threw 8 touchdowns. This was the unit that allowed Falcons rookie Kyle Pitts his true breakout (9 for 119 and 1 touchdown) back in Week 5. Last week they kept the Bengals’ JaMarr Chase mostly in check, but gave up a handful of splash catches elsewhere. The Jets boast a star in free safety Marcus Maye, but the surrounding talent at cornerback remains young and inconsistent. This unit may be building to something strong, but its youth (and the state of the franchise overall) often works against it.

Bottom 5 Passing Matchups

Jacksonville vs Buffalo

The Jaguars’ passing attack continues to struggle this season as they seemingly can’t get anything going. Not even a date with the Seahawks’ bottom-tier pass defense could spur Trevor Lawrence into life. The rookie threw 54 times, managing all of 238 yards on a steady diet of checkdowns to low-impact receivers. The game plan still doesn’t trust Lawrence to test defenses downfield; last Sunday he went 0-for-4 when throwing 15+ yards, continuing a recent, regressing trend. That severely dampens the value of top wideout Marvin Jones, who’s fallen below 40 yards in 3 of his last 4 games. And unfortunately, dynamic youngster Laviska Shenault hasn’t produced much during the shift (just 13 yards Sunday). For the time being, it’s short-ball specialist Jamal Agnew and tight end Dan Arnold leading the way, and neither profiles to much dynamism. It’s hard to trust this unit even in neutral matchups. Against the red-hot Bills, there’s simply no one intriguing here.

The Bills defense comes fresh off a seventh straight dominant showing to open the year. Last year’s Bills were scary as Josh Allen and the offense grew up fast; this version will be unbeatable if opposing passers can’t find holes in the star-studded secondary. Tre’Davious White is enjoying another All-Pro caliber season shutting down half the opponents’ field. He’s a huge reason this unit has allowed wide receivers an anemic 5.6 yards per target, best in the league by a wide margin. But credit also goes to rising star Taron Johnson in the slot, as well as arguably the NFL’s best safety duo in Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. It was Poyer who put the clamps on Tua Tagovailoa’s rally attempt last week with a brilliant late interception. Overall, this group has allowed just a single passer to reach 220 yards this season: that was Patrick Mahomes II back in Week 5, with garbage time allowing for 54 throws. That’s likely the only way Trevor Lawrence will so much as register a blip this Sunday.

San Francisco vs Arizona

The 49ers continue to weigh their options at the quarterback spot. Rookie Trey Lance is healthy and brings more dynamism to the table than checkdown king Jimmy Garoppolo. But the veteran has coach Kyle Shanahan’s support, and he certainly bought himself another week with a big stat line in last Sunday’s win. Garoppolo totaled 322 yards against the Bears, though in true Garoppolo fashion he made very few plays with his arm. He completed just 2 deep passes (15+ yards downfield), with most of the 49ers’ production coming after the catch. Deebo Samuel is a sight to behold in the open field; he’s a matchup-proof WR1 for fantasy purposes. But no one else can be trusted week-to-week while the team remains so run-oriented. Garoppolo is still the superior passer to Lance, but his mediocrity still caps the upside in a big way.

The Cardinals offense has drawn most of the headlines during their 7-1 start, which makes sense. But it’s hard to overstate the impact of coordinator Vance Joseph’s defense, which has smothered all comers thus far. Only one opponent (Matthew Stafford) has topped 250 yards, and that came thanks to a generous helping of garbage time. The others have averaged just 204 amidst a hail of heavy, effective blitzing. This is a deep pass-rush unit capable of withstanding the loss of J.J. Watt, led by Markus Golden, Chandler Jones, and a solid rotation of edge men. That wouldn’t matter, of course, if the secondary couldn’t cover on the back end. But Joseph has coaxed clutch play from cornerbacks Byron Murphy and Robert Alford, as well as the safeties, which makes all that aggressiveness possible. When these teams met back in Week 5, the Cardinals kept breakout stud Deebo Samuel under wraps, allowing just three of his nine targets caught. If they similarly blanket the 49ers’ only viable weapon this week, it will be hard for Jimmy Garoppolo to produce much of anything here.

Arizona at San Francisco

The Cardinals continue to get strong, gutsy play from Kyler Murray and his receivers as this offense has been forced into a drop back passing offense due to Murray’s ankle injury. Murray wasn’t at his sharpest last in Thursday’s loss, but he still racked up 274 yards and can hardly be blamed for either of his interceptions. This is an opportunistic attack that finds plenty of holes down the field. However, Murray doesn’t throw with much volume (just 32 attempts per game), so he has to be particularly efficient to create big air numbers from week to week. He also needs stronger play from his receivers not named DeAndre Hopkins. Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, and rookie Rondale Moore have put up more errors than production in recent weeks. Hopkins needs more support, which could be a tall order against their division rivals’ stout cornerbacks. The Cardinals’ strengths are in and out of the slot, which happens to be where the 49ers excel most at making plays on the ball.

The 49ers pass defense remains a strength here in an uneven, uncertain 2021 season. Since a wild Week 1, they’ve allowed opponents just 194 yards per game. This unit boasts playmakers on all levels, with Nick Bosa leading the charge in an All-Pro caliber start off the edge. Bosa has tallied 15 quarterback hits and 7.0 sacks, often altering the gameplan with his dominance of the pocket. Last week they pressured Chicago’s Justin Fields into 4 sacks, 2 fumbles, and just 6.5 yards per throw. The cornerback play has been a pleasant surprise, with Emmanuel Moseley enjoying a quality season on the outside and K’Waun Williams still one of the NFL’s top slot men. Williams was a driving force in limiting the likes of Tyler Lockett (24 yards) and Allen Robinson (21) in recent weeks. One note to monitor: secondary leader Jimmie Ward left last Sunday’s game after aggravating a quad issue, and his outlook for this weekend isn’t great. He would be missed, though this is a deep, well-coached group that can likely survive it.

Philadelphia vs LA Chargers

The Eagles pass game struggled in recent weeks after a hot start to the year. Most crucially, they still appear stuck between quarterbacks, refusing to commit to the dynamic but erratic Jalen Hurts. In the second-year Hurts they have a dual-threat weapon, and fantasy players love the boost they get from his legs. But it’s been several weeks since this attack has produced anything of note through the air. Hurts averaged 8.0 yards per throw and 292 a game in Weeks 1-4, but has tumbled to 5.9 and 163 since. Some of the blame lies on his receivers, a young and raw group still learning to create separation in the NFL. DeVonta Smith and Quez Watkins are nearly every-down players, but neither has produced in a fantasy-useful way in weeks. The only bankable piece of this unit is tight end Dallas Goedert, who’s gathered 41% of the team’s yardage over the past 2 weeks.

The Chargers have only been solidly beaten once through the air, in an absolute track meet with the Browns in Week 5. Apart from that game, they’ve given up just 217 yards and 1.2 touchdowns on average. It’s no surprise given the amount of sheer talent that keeps replenishing in the Chargers secondary. Michael Davis, Asante Samuel, and Chris Harris make for a strong cornerback trio; the team has yet to allow a wideout to top 85 yards in a game. It’ll be worth monitoring the status of Davis and Samuel as the weekend draws closer. Davis left Week 8 with a hamstring issue and Samuel with a concussion, and their losses would be felt in Week 9. But this is a deep group that could likely withstand a short-term setback like that. Veteran Harris has been up-and-down in coverage throughout the year, but matches up well against the Eagles’ slot-and-seam attack. The Chargers will be in position to play Jalen Hurts conservatively overall, with Harris and star safety Derwin James there to make plays on the ball. James’ play has been a bit uneven, but through it all he’s been an All-Pro caliber playmaker.

Chicago at Pittsburgh

The Bears still have yet to completely commit to an offense that enhances Justin Fields’ unique skillset, and it’s caused their passing attack to crater. Fields isn’t tasked with throwing much more than 25-30 traditional dropback passes, with almost no regard for the downfield game. He’s averaged 154 yards over 6 starts at a weak 6.4 per attempt, with just 3 touchdowns through the air. Coach Matt Nagy is keeping Fields’ arm under wraps, which makes some sense considering how raw he’s looked making tough NFL throws. As a result, even the great Allen Robinson has all but from fantasy relevance. Robinson has only topped 35 yards twice in 8 games, with a season-best line of 3-63-0 back in Week 4. The speedy Darnell Mooney is enjoying a mini-breakout (4 for 51 per game), though second-year tight end Cole Kmet isn’t making much impact (3 for 25). This likely isn’t the week to bet on a surge in productivity for this unit.

The Steelers pass defense hasn’t performed at the dominant heights of its 2020 season, and the better passers they’ve faced have found their share of success. Still, this unit remains tough for fantasy managers to approach with Justin Fields and the weak-throwing Bears. The Steelers opened against a brutal stretch of quarterbacking, but over the past two weeks they’ve put the clamps on Geno Smith (209 yards) and Baker Mayfield (225). This is still one of the league’s most talented units, with dynamic playmakers on all levels of the field. Down lineman Cameron Heyward is enjoying perhaps the best season of a storied career, while T.J. Watt is mounting another Defensive Player of the Year run on the edge. The Steelers sit top-three in hurry rate, knockdown rate, and sack rate, which takes stress off a secondary that frankly needs the relief. Cornerbacks Joe Haden and Cameron Sutton can hold their own when the front seven is collapsing the pocket. Fields and the Bears have yet to find real success through the air, and they’ll be hard-pressed to find many holes here.