Consensus average draft position (ADP) reports provide a good estimate of how the fantasy industry ranks players. They’re an important framework to set up rankings or tiers and think about draft strategy.
Footballguys has a ton of articles debating and analyzing how offseason player movement, scheme changes, offensive pace outlooks, coaches’ comments, and preseason usage conspire to affect ADP.
Past and current injury history are also baked into current ADP. But there are players who you can safely draft at or ahead of ADP. And some I strongly recommend avoiding.
I’ll be using Footballguys consensus ADP reports (as of August 28) as a baseline.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott (QB7 | 57th overall)
It's been an eventful offseason for Prescott. Two ankle surgeries and a latissimus muscle strain have prompted lots of debate about his 2021 health. The Cowboys raised suspicion about Prescott's training camp health by sending him for a shoulder MRI despite reports of stellar rehab progress. Then, Adam Schefter threw a wrench into expectations by commenting that Prescott may not be fully recovered all season.
When reports don't make sense, you can generally trust what you see on the field.
Prescott has continued to progress in his throwing program, is taking part in team drills, and there are no reports of decreasing velocity or poor accuracy over the past 2-3 weeks. It's reasonable to argue that Prescott may experience some soreness in his ankle and have fewer rushing yards than in past seasons. But I don't expect his shoulder to limit the Dallas passing offense.
Prescott currently sits just behind Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, in a tight grouping below the elite quarterbacks. The Dallas offense has extreme upside, and Prescott could easily finish in the top five at his position.
**Prescott is safe to draft at -- or slightly above -- ADP.
Joe Burrow (QB13 | 104th overall)
After receiving glowing reports on his rehab progress throughout the offseason, it was eye-opening to read of Burrow's struggles in the pocket in early training camp work. It shouldn't have been.
Physical recovery is generally predictable. Building confidence in live-action in practice and full-speed game scenarios takes time -- and repetitions. Burrow understood the challenges of regaining comfort in the pocket, embraced them, and continues to make progress in camp. Expect some early-season inconsistency, but Burrow should improve as the season progresses.
Burrow is surrounded by weapons, but questions remain about his offensive line. If you're drafting Burrow, you're either planning to pair him with a safer, quarterback-by-committee option, or you're taking him to back up a higher draft selection. Either way, he's an acceptable risk with upside in his current tier.
**Burrow is safe to draft at ADP.
Others of note
Trey Lance (QB17) -- Suffered a small fracture in right index finger, won't affect eventual starting role. Safe at ADP.
Carson Wentz (QB27) -- Wentz cruised through the early stages of rehab, could return for Week 1. Safe at ADP.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley (RB7 | 9th overall)
Barkley has easily generated the most debate among players returning from 2020 injury.
It's easy to understand why. Barkley is an elite talent and one of the few running backs with an 85%+ usage rate. He's also still recovering from a multiple-ligament injury requiring 5-6 weeks of rehab before surgery to reconstruct the ACL and repair damage to the meniscus.
The Giants have consistently said Barkley would not see his usual workload until he's ready. Ian Rapoport and others have reported Barkley may not be ready until Week 3 or later. Reassuringly, Barkley is off the PUP list and participating in team drills. But he's not yet cleared for contact.
Barkley's current ADP incorporates all of these factors. If Barkley were expected full strength for Week 1, he'd be a top-five fantasy option and a top-half of the first-round pick. I'm on the more conservative side of the Barkley argument and do not believe he'll be ready for 20+ touches until mid-September. He's also at risk for early-season soreness and swelling as he navigates from a 10-12 touch role to every-down play.
I'd rather have Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler in this range. But starting a healthy Barkley during the fantasy stretch run of Weeks 14-17 is compelling.
**Barkley is a boom-bust risk at ADP
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB14 | 24th overall)
Edwards-Helaire suffered an ankle sprain in last week's preseason game. There were reports the injury was to the inside of his ankle, prompting speculation of a multiple-week injury. I still believe it's too soon to definitively argue Edwards-Helaire will be limited in Week 1 (or beyond). While he did not dress for Kansas City's final preseason game, Edwards-Helaire was cleared for individual drills in practice last week.
I think Edwards-Helaire is more likely to see a full workload in Week 1 than miss multiple regular-season weeks. Unless there are new reports of concern, it's safe to rely on your pre-injury analysis of Edwards-Helaire.
**Edwards-Helaire is safe to draft at ADP
J.K. Dobbins (RB15 | 28th overall)
Dobbins suffered a hyperextended knee in Saturday's preseason game. There are no further details on his injury as the team awaits a Sunday MRI.
Based on limited video review, I expect Dobbins to miss multiple weeks. Unfortunately, video strongly suggests a ligament injury (PCL, with ACL involvement possible) which would threaten much, or all, of Dobbins' season. A significant bone bruise -- and a 4-6+ week absence -- is the best-case scenario.
I'll update when more details are reported. For now, Dobbins cannot be drafted anywhere near his ADP. Until the unknowns are resolved, do not draft Dobbins until a point at which you'd be comfortable drafting a player who may miss at least half the regular season.
Sunday Update: Adam Schefter reports an MRI confirmed a torn ACL for Dobbins. He is out for the 2021 season.
**Take Dobbins off your draft list
DAndre Swift (RB17 | 33rd overall)
Swift missed multiple practices in the first three weeks of camp with a groin injury. He's since returned to full-contact team drills, and multiple beat writers have reported positive observations.
But Dan Campbell has said he's unsure about Swift's Week 1 availability. And he's said it more than once. While Campbell's comments do not fit with practice observations, they're difficult to ignore. The Lions also have veteran Jamaal Williams in reserve and prepared to handle a sizable workload.
Most likely, Swift is recovering well, and the team is expressing an appropriate concern about his conditioning and whether he's ready for a lead committee back role. There are still two weeks for Swift to prove he's returned to full football condition and is no longer at immediate risk of an aggravated muscle strain.
I'm not listing Swift as a clear avoid at his ADP, but there's not enough upside in the Detroit offensive situation or depth chart to risk drafting Swift at the top of his tier.
**Exercise caution drafting Swift at ADP
Darrell Henderson (RB26 | 62nd overall)
Henderson suffered a thumb sprain in practice last week. Shortly after, the Rams traded picks to New England for Sony Michel.
While the Los Angeles running back depth chart was ripe for reinforcement from the moment Cam Akers went down with an Achilles tear, the timing of the Michel trade was a stark reminder that the Rams aren't fully comfortable with Henderson as a full-time back.
However, those painting the acquisition as a referendum on Henderson's durability are reaching. The thumb sprain is a non-issue. Surgery was not necessary, and Henderson was quickly back to individual drills. And Michel has a chronic knee condition that could easily threaten his own availability.
**Base your decision about Henderson on your analysis of how the Rams will split carries between Henderson and Michel when both are at full strength. The current injury should not affect Henderson's Week 1 availability.
Others of note
Joe Mixon (RB13 | 19th overall) -- The 2020 midfoot sprain has not affected Mixon this offseason. Safe at ADP.
Raheem Mostert (RB28 | 72nd overall) -- Niners' limited practices but no significant injury concerns. Safe at ADP.
Wide Receiver
Amari Cooper (WR15 | 41st overall)
Like many players recovering from arthroscopic ankle surgery, Cooper felt soreness during rehab and took longer than estimated to return to playing form. Thankfully, he was able to quickly transition off the PUP list. Cooper has returned to full-contact team drills, and observers have noted continued progress.
**Cooper is safe to draft at ADP
Julio Jones (WR18 | 45th overall)
Jones has barely practiced during training camp. There doesn't seem to be much concern locally, but Jones has a long history of fighting soft-tissue injury. The Titans may be exercising caution until late in the preseason, but there's risk with Jones. I suggest keeping Jones in your preferred tier but not drafting him until the other options in the tier are exhausted.
**Jones is a risk at ADP
Kenny Golladay (WR29 | 71st overall)
Golladay strained a hamstring nearly four weeks ago and has yet to return to the practice field. Joe Judge told reporters Golladay was "a week away, tops," but there's a 1-2 week reconditioning period still to be navigated. Mid-grade strains are at high risk of aggravation in the first week of practice. The Giants have a full two weeks to return him to action for Week 1.
Current ADP puts Golladay at the end of the sixth round among a handful of other WR3 options -- many of whom have question marks of their own.
**Golladay is a risk at ADP
Courtland Sutton (WR30 | 73rd overall)
Sutton continues to struggle as he returns from a complicated ACL injury. There were signs of improvement during the Broncos' third preseason game. That may be an indication that Sutton is finally trusting his knee and ready to compete without hesitation. You'll also need to consider the Denver quarterback situation and Sutton's competition for targets in your deliberation.
**Sutton is a risk at ADP
Michael Thomas (WR32 | 75th overall)
Thomas decided against post-season surgery to address multiple ankle ligament injuries. After not responding to rehab, Thomas chose surgery in mid-June. A minimum four-month recovery puts his return in October at the earliest, but recovery from these procedures varies. Unfortunately, many players learn they aren't at full strength for six months are more.
There's a chance Thomas returns to form for your fantasy playoff run, but you'll have to carry him on your roster for months to find out. Current ADP will force you to consider Thomas as your WR3 or WR4.
**Thomas should not be drafted at ADP
Will Fuller (WR34 | 102nd overall)
Fuller left training camp on July 29 with an undisclosed foot injury. Local media members have been mostly reassuring on Fuller's status, but it's difficult to be comfortable drafting a player with a history of soft-tissue limitations who missed nearly all of training camp.
The Dolphins have returned Fuller to limited practice sessions and expect him to be available in Week 1. Without knowing the details of the injury, it's impossible to assess his risk of aggravation or early-season struggles.
**Fuller is a boom-bust risk at ADP
Others of note
Tyreek Hill (WR2 | 10th overall) -- Hill has missed practices during camp but returned to contact drills. Safe at ADP.
Stefon Diggs (WR3 | 14th overall) -- Diggs missed time with knee issue, now returned to contact drills. Safe at ADP.
Calvin Ridley (WR5 | 17th overall) -- Ridley has had a good camp after offseason foot surgery. Safe at ADP.
Justin Jefferson (WR7 | 22nd overall) -- Jefferson suffered an AC sprain in camp but is back at practice. Safe at ADP.
A.J. Brown (WR8 | 25th overall) -- Brown had both knees scoped and was routinely rested in camp. Safe at ADP.
Tyler Lockett (WR19 | 46th overall) -- Lockett missed time with a groin strain but returned to workouts. Safe at ADP.
Odell Beckham (WR28 | 70th overall) -- Beckham is recovered from last week's ACL surgery. Safe at ADP.
D.J. Chark (WR37 | 88th overall) -- Chark is expected to return from a finger fracture in Week 1. Risk at ADP.
Curtis Samuel (WR47) -- Samuel should return to practice after a groin strain limited him for weeks. Safe at ADP.
Elijah Moore (WR55) -- Moore returned to practice after a quad injury and is expected to play in Week 1. Safe at ADP.
T.Y. Hilton (WR57) -- Hilton has a neck injury and will miss multiple weeks. Do not draft at ADP.
Rashod Bateman (WR69) -- Bateman had core muscle surgery and won't play until Week 4. Safe at ADP.
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson (TE6 | 60th overall) -- Missed practices with an AC sprain. Now returned to drills. Safe at ADP.
Noah Fant (TE8 | 84th overall) -- Expected to play Week 1 after missing practices with knee issue. Safe at ADP.
Irv Smith (TE13) -- Scheduled for meniscus surgery. Best case 3-4 weeks, could be season-ending. Avoid at ADP.
Jonnu Smith (TE14) -- Returned to practice after low ankle sprain and is expected to play Week 1. Safe at ADP.
Evan Engram (TE16) -- Awaiting tests but calf strain likely to be multiple-week injury. Avoid at ADP.
Hunter Henry (TE17) -- Henry is participating in non-contact drills and should be ready for Week 1. Safe at ADP.
Adam Trautman (TE20) -- Still waiting for reports on Trautman's status after seeing a foot specialist. Risk at ADP.
Injury Rounds
J.K. Dobbins | Left ACL tear | Aug 28 | Injured reserve (expected) | 2022 return
Dobbins hyperextended his left knee during the Ravens' third preseason game.
Video of the injury is concerning. The hyperextension occurred while Dobbins' foot was planted, a mechanism that often leads to significant damage.
The best-case scenario is a significant bone bruise around the knee joint -- similar to what George Kittle suffered in 2020 -- and a 4-6+ week absence. Unfortunately, season-ending ligament injuries to the PCL and/or ACL are also possible. Rob Gronkowski's 2013 ACL injury happened on a similar hit.
Post-game interviews of Baltimore offensive players suggest the team fears a season-ending injury. Dobbins has an MRI scheduled. I'll update further when details are reported.
Sunday Update: Adam Schefter confirms Dobbins sustained a torn ACL. He will have season-ending surgery. I'll update with reports of any associated injuries.
Irv Smith | Meniscus surgery | TBD | Awaiting details | Out Week 1
Smith will reportedly have surgery on a meniscus injury. The timetable will be determined by whether surgeons elect to remove the damaged tissue (3- to 6-week timetable) or repair the meniscus (4-6 months). I'll update after Smith's surgery, and treatment course is reported.
Travis Etienne | Left Lisfranc sprain | Late August 2021 | Injured Reserve
Etienne suffered a Lisfranc injury last week. Although x-rays did not reveal a fracture, the joint was found to be unstable on MRI, and Etienne will need surgery.
Rehab is generally a 7-9 month process, but it may take Etienne longer to return to full strength given the demands of the running back position. He'll have a full 12 months to rehab. I'll follow his progress closely through the coming offseason.
Trey Lance | Right index finger fracture | Aug 29 | Week-to-Week | Questionable Week 1
Lance hit his throwing hand on a helmet in the Niners' final preseason game. Adam Schefter reported a small chip fracture in this finger and video replays showed Lance squeezing his index finger during the game. Early reports suggest Lance will be restricted from throwing for a week, then re-evaluated.
The injury will keep Lance from preparing to play in Week 1 but should not affect him from replacing Jimmy Garoppolo in the early weeks of the season if needed.
Others of Note
**T.Y. Hilton has a disc herniation in his lower neck and will miss a minimum of one month.
**Marvin Jones suffered an AC sprain during the second preseason game and is considered day-to-day.
**Adam Trautman visited a foot specialist early last week, and his return to play estimate has yet to be updated.
Follow Up Appointments
We've reached the critical point in camp at which all players with "minor" injuries should be returning to practice to work on regular-season readiness. Nearly every player of concern has returned to practice, including:
- RB DAndre Swift
- RB Melvin Gordon
- WR Tyreek Hill
- WR Stefon Diggs
- WR Justin Jefferson
- WR A.J. Brown
- WR Julio Jones
- WR Chase Claypool
- WR Will Fuller
- WR Elijah Moore
- TE Darren Waller
Injured Players on Active Roster
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Quarterbacks Injured | On the Active Roster
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Player
|
Team
|
Injury
|
Date
|
Current Status
|
Return Timetable
|
FBG W1 Expectation
|
| Carson Wentz | Phi | Left metatarsal avulsion fracture | Aug 2 | Limited practice | Week-to-Week | Questionable |
| Dak Prescott | Dal | Right latissimus muscle strain | July 28 | Limited practice | Day-to-Day | Probable |
| Trey Lance | SF | Right index finger fracture | July 29 | Not practicing | Week-to-Week | Questionable |
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Running Backs Injured | On the Active Roster
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Player
|
Team
|
Injury
|
Date
|
Current Status
|
Return Timetable
|
FBG W1 Expectation
|
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | Right ACL reconstruction / meniscus repair | Oct-2020 | Limited practice | Day-to-Day | Questionable |
| J.K. Dobbins | Bal | Left ACL tear | Aug 28 | Not practicing | 2022 return | Injured reserve |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | Ankle sprain | Aug 20 | Limited practice | Day-to-Day | Probable |
| Cam Akers | LAR | Achilles repair | Jul-2021 | Active - PUP | 2022 return | Injured reserve |
| DAndre Swift | Det | Groin strain | Aug-2021 | Limited practice | Day-to-Day | Probable |
| Melvin Gordon | Den | Groin strain | Aug 13 | Limited practice | Day-to-Day | Probable |
| Tarik Cohen | Chi | Right ACL reconstruction | Sep-2020 | Active - PUP | Week-to-Week | Doubtful |
| Darrynton Evans | Ten | Left knee injury | Aug 13 | Not practicing | Day-to-Day | Questionable |
| Mike Boone | Den | Quad injury | Aug 12 | Not practicing | 4-6 weeks | Out |
| Jeff Wilson | SF | Meniscus repair | May-2021 | Active - PUP | 3-4 months | PUP |
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Wide Receivers Injured | On the Active Roster
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Player
|
Team
|
Injury
|
Date
|
Current Status
|
Return Timetable
|
FBG W1 Expectation
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| Julio Jones | Ten | Undisclosed | Aug 3 | Not practicing | Week-to-Week | Probable |
| Michael Thomas | NO | Syndesmosis/deltoid repair | Jun-2021 | Active - PUP | 3-4 months | PUP |
| Kenny Golladay | NYG | Left hamstring strain | Aug 3 | Not practicing | Week-to-Week | Questionable |
| Will Fuller | Mia | Foot injury | July 29 | Limited practice | Day-to-Day | Suspended |
| Preston Williams | Mia | Right foot surgery | Nov-2020 | Limited practice | Day-to-Day | Questionable |
| Marvin Jones | Jac | AC sprain | Aug 23 | Not practicing | Day-to-Day | Probable |
| D.J. Chark | Jac | Finger fracture fixation | Aug 8 | Not practicing | Week-to-Week | Probable |
| Marquise Brown | Bal | Hamstring strain | July 29 | Not practicing | Week-to-Week | Probable |
| Rashod Bateman | Bal | Core abdominal muscle repair | Aug 13 | Not practicing | 6-8 weeks | Injured reserve |
| Curtis Samuel | Was | Groin strain | Jun-2021 | Limited practice | Day-to-Day | Probable |
| TreQuan Smith | NO | Hamstring strain | Aug 3 | Not practicing | Day-to-Day | Probable |
| T.Y. Hilton | Ind | Cervical disc herniation | Aug 25 | Not practicing | 4-5+ weeks | Out |
| Emmanuel Sanders | Buf | Foot injury | Aug 12 | Limited practice | Day-to-Day | Probable |
| NKeal Harry | NE | Left shoulder injury | Aug 19 | Not practicing | 3-4 weeks | Doubtful |
| Anthony Miller | Hou | Right shoulder subluxation | Aug 14 | Not practicing | 3-4 weeks | Doubtful |
| Kadarius Toney | NYG | Undisclosed | Aug-2021 | Not practicing | Week-to-Week | Questionable |
| DWayne Eskridge | Sea | Toe injury | May 2021 | Limited practice | Day-to-Day | Probable |
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Tight Ends Injured | On the Active Roster
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Player
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Team
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Injury
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Date
|
Current Status
|
Return Timetable
|
FBG W1 Expectation
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| T.J. Hockenson | Det | AC sprain | Aug 10 | Limited practice | Day-to-Day | Probable |
| Irv Smith | Min | Meniscus surgery | TBD | Not practicing | Awaiting details | Out |
| Evan Engram | NYG | Left calf strain | Aug 29 | Not practicing | Awaiting details | Doubtful |
| Adam Trautman | NO | Foot injury | Aug 23 | Not practicing | Awaiting details | Questionable |
| Hunter Henry | NE | Shoulder injury | Aug 8 | Not practicing | Day-to-Day | Questionable |
| Kyle Rudolph | NYG | Foot surgery | Mar-2021 | Active - PUP | Week-to-Week | Questionable |
Injured Players Not on Active Roster
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Notable Quarterbacks on PUP or NFI or IR
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Player
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Team
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Injury
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Date
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Current Status
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Eligible to Return |
FBG Expects
|
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Notable Running Backs on PUP or NFI or IR
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Player
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Team
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Injury
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Date
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Current Status
|
Eligible to Return |
FBG Expects
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| Travis Etienne | Jac | Left Lisfranc sprain | Aug-2021 | IR - Aug 2021 | Not Eligible in 2021 | 2022 return |
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Notable Wide Receivers on PUP or NFI or IR
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Player
|
Team
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Injury
|
Date
|
Current Status
|
Eligible to Return |
FBG Expects
|
|
Notable Tight Ends on PUP or NFI or IR
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Player
|
Team
|
Injury
|
Date
|
Current Status
|
Eligible to Return |
FBG Expects
|
| Dalton Keene | NE | Meniscus repair | Jul-2021 | IR - Aug 2021 | Not Eligible in 2021 | 2022 return |
DECIPHERING THE ALPHABET SOUP OF INJURY LISTS
Players not ready for camp practices are placed on one of two lists – Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) or Non-Football Injury/Illness (NFI).
Physically Unable to Perform (PUP)
Active/PUP – Preseason only list. Once a player participates in any part of a scheduled training camp practice, they are ineligible for this list. Players can be activated from this list at any time. This list is commonly used for veterans still recovering from injury and those who fail conditioning tests before camp begins.
Reserve/PUP – Regular season only list. Players still on Active/PUP at the end of camp are eligible to move to Reserve/PUP. Players cannot practice with the team until after Week 6. Teams then have six weeks to evaluate the player before moving to the active roster or to season-ending injured reserve.
Non-Football Injury / Illness (NFI)
Active/NFI – Preseason only list. Once a player participates in any part of a scheduled training camp practice, they are ineligible for this list. Players can be activated from this list at any time. Only veterans with a non-football related injury or rookies injured before the NFL draft are eligible for this list.
Reserve/NFI – Regular season only list. Players converted from the Active/NFI list to the Reserve/NFI list are out for the entire season.
Injured Reserve – Return Designation
Each NFL team can return two players to the active roster from injured reserve. Teams are not forced to designate this player at the time of the move to injured reserve. Players designated to return can begin practicing six weeks after being placed on injured reserve and are eligible to return to the active roster eight games after being placed on injured reserve. This rule allows a team to continually evaluate the rehab and recovery of their injured players and provides roster flexibility should teams have multiple key injuries early in the season.
Follow me on Twitter @JeneBramel for breaking injury news and analysis throughout the off-season.
