Photo: Imagn Images
The 2021 NFL free-agent class is loaded with big names at the skill positions. Those were covered in Part 1 of this series. Now, Part 2 covers the best of the rest with dynasty implications in the offseason and beyond:
QUARTERBACKS
- Teddy Bridgewater
- Tyrod Taylor
- Ben Roethlisberger (Pending Retirement)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Andy Dalton
- Marcus Mariota
- Mitchell Trubisky
Only Jameis Winston populated the Tier 1 quarterback list from New Reality 175. Even that could be considered a stretch by more skeptical parties. This is a typical free-agent class at quarterback, encompassing older retreads, potential retirees, and previous flame-out options.
The wildcard of this group is Mitchell Trubisky. He has two quality Interception Rate seasons and two quality Touchdown Rate seasons, however, neither subset paired together over his four qualifying seasons in the NFL. Trubisky also has fantasy impact potential as a runner. Especially in premium formats, Trubisky is a strong stash player into the offseason. Even if Trubisky lands in a backup spot with free agency, he is a candidate to turn into the next Ryan Tannehill or Jameis Winston to build his profile back to NFL (and dynasty) starter.
Marcus Mariota does not quite meet the same qualifiers as Trubisky. Mariota's last meaningful season of volume is back in 2018 and his last two seasons of 300 or more attempts (2017-2018) totaled 24 touchdowns and 23 interceptions with his TD-INT Rate Ratios in the zone of a poor rookie quarterback, let alone a mid-career veteran with draft pedigree.
RUNNING BACKS
- Chase Edmonds
- Sony Michel
- Raheem Mostert
- David Johnson
- Mark Ingram
- Rashaad Penny
- Darrel Williams
- Damien Williams
Edmonds is the highlight name from an age and 2021 production standpoint. However, Edmonds has only recently held a 1A depth chart role and has missed time this year as a result (with James Conner performing better in his absence than Edmonds himself).
Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny have Round 1 pedigree and reside in their prime age windows. Both come with durability flags - Michel with his eroding knees and questions on if he can hold up to consistent usage and Penny, who just recently scraped over 200 career touches in his fourth season. Penny showed well in Week 13, but he has played a mere eight games between 2020 and 2021.
David Johnson and Mark Ingram have appeal from their career production, being a fantasy RB1 in seasons. Both could be 1A options paired with a young-rookie back being grooming for later 2022 a la Melvin Gordon. A Round 4 rookie pick may get either Johnson or Ingram.
Darrel Williams is another back worth highlighting as an underrated (and capable) NFL and fantasy option. Williams had his first stint as a clarified start in 2021, including three top-15 performances and the top overall running back in Week 10. Williams has a three-down profile and now a growing argument to be a longer-term injury-away option. The Round 3-4 zone of rookie pick capital is where Williams fits in the trade market. Whether returning to Kansas City or not, expect Williams to find a depth chart he can benefit from injury in 2022 and beyond.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier 1 from last week's edition was littered with WR1/2 types for 2022 NFL depth charts. Michael Gallup could have been an inclusion in Tier 1 at his best, but likely is viewed as an NFL WR2 in free agency. Christian Kirk is the same in the coming months. For dynasty teams, valuing ancillary receivers too highly in the offseason or as stash players is a slippery slope. Making the exception for one as "your favorite" or the "exception to the rule" can snowball to a handful clogging a roster into possessing 8-10 wide receivers with a total roster size in the mid-20s. Gallup is a quality NFL talent, but unless corralling an NFL WR1 role, the exits over the past few weeks below are optimal moves:
- Gallup, 2nd for Miles Sanders
- Gallup, Dawson Knox, 2nd for Rashod Bateman, 1st
- Gallup, Trey Lance, 1st for Dak Prescott (Superflex)
James Washington has Day 2 pedigree, but now four seasons of non-descript production and without a finish in the top-60 of the position. No such wide receiver has turned in a future top-24 season since the mid-1990s. This is an example of betting on the outliers of the outliers.
D.J. Chark was a breakout dynasty darling after his WR19 aPPG finish in 2019. However, Chark declined last year to WR39 in the aPPG standing and was even lower in 2021. Chark was a boom-bust prospect exiting college and even the short-term 'hits' from that profile bucket typically erode backward quicker than the durable profiles. Chark would fit perfectly into this outcome. Of similar career arcs, Chark's best-case comparable would be Robby Anderson post-Year 1 (2021), which included one notable season in the WR20s.
TIGHT ENDS
Tyler Conklin would not have even qualified for this list a year ago. An Irv Smith Jr. injury has fueled a rise in opportunities for Conklin in 2021 (a la Dalton Schutz in 2020) to prove his worth as an NFL starter. Smith is projected back in 2022 and Conklin could find his best contract outside of Minnesota with a number of starter-needy depth charts projected.
Hayden Hurst did not fulfill expectations, even before Kyle Pitts arrived in 2021, with the Falcons as a reclamation project after Mark Andrews stole the show quickly in Baltimore. Hurst battled injuries early in his NFL career and 2021 was the same result. Round 1 pedigree remains, but Hurst is a 2TE stash player more than anything of the 1TE variety.
C.J. Uzomah is a personal favorite to highlight. Younger than most would assume at 29.7 years old for Week 1 in 2022, Uzomah has kept a Round 2 pedigree Drew Sample in the reserve role for multiple seasons and has two TE1 overall performances this season despite sharing an offense with three quality wide receivers and a strong running back depth chart. Uzomah has been underrated over his career and 2022 is poised to be more of the same whether back in Cincinnati or not.
POTENTIAL INCUMBENT BENEFACTORS
- Eno Benjamin: The lone notable under-contract Arizona running back and would benefit from James Conner and/or Chase Edmonds departing in free agency.
- Jake Funk: Sony Michel is the RB2 and, while Cam Akers is set to return late in 2021 or in 2022, Funk should stick as the RB3 for the Rams.
- DeeJay Dallas: Travis Homer: While neither are optimal offseason stashes at the position, Alex Collins and Rashaad Penny are both notable free agents.
- Cedrick Wilson: Michael Gallup should find solid (or better) money in free agency and Wilson has shown well in the WR2/3/4 roles for Dallas this season.
- Rondale Moore: One of the bigger escalation players for 2022, A.J. Green and Christian Kirk are notable free agents on the depth chart.
- Laviska Sheanult: A quizzical lack of progression this season, but Round 2 pedigree
- Rashod Bateman: Sammy Watkins a free agent and a Year 2 progression for Round 1 wide receivers should be expected.
- Gabriel Davis: Emmanuel Sanders is a key free agent for the Bills and even if Davis settles as the WR2/3, that is fantasy-viable when paired with Josh Allen.
- Drew Sample: Tight ends are slow to develop and Sample is getting closer to the end of his rookie contract as a Round 2 pick.
- Irv Smith: Returning from a significant injury is the first priority for Smith, but Conklin gone would be a significant boost as in retrospect 2021 looks like it would have been more of a committee than Smith supporters would have liked.
Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags
Dynasty
Cam Akers
Josh Allen
Robbie Chosen
Mark Andrews
Rashod Bateman
Eno Benjamin
Teddy Bridgewater
D.J. Chark Jr
Alex Collins
Tyler Conklin
James Conner
DeeJay Dallas
Andy Dalton
Gabe Davis
Eric Ebron
Chase Edmonds
Gerald Everett
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Jake Funk
Michael Gallup
Melvin Gordon III
A.J. Green
Travis Homer
Hayden Hurst
Mark Ingram II
David Johnson
Christian Kirk
Dawson Knox
Trey Lance
Marcus Mariota
Sony Michel
Rondale Moore
Raheem Mostert
Rashaad Penny
Kyle Pitts
Dak Prescott
Ben Roethlisberger
Drew Sample
Emmanuel Sanders
Miles Sanders
Irv Smith Jr.
Ryan Tannehill
Tyrod Taylor
Robert Tonyan Jr
Mitch Trubisky
C.J. Uzomah
James Washington
Sammy Watkins
Darrel Williams
Damien Williams
Cedrick Wilson Jr.
Jameis Winston
