articles

Monkey Knife Fight Player Props, Week 21

Dan Hindery's Monkey Knife Fight Player Props, Week 21
By Dan Hindery, January 27, 2022

Monkey Knife Fight Player Props, Week 21
Photo: Imagn Images

Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) is playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week. With the Holiday week, we are going to do things just a little bit differently. We are going to give our two favorite Thanksgiving Day props on Thursday morning and then add the top three weekend plays on Friday.

Week 20 Review

  • Last Week: -2
  • Season Total: +4.2

A second-straight losing week in the playoffs is a bummer, especially when we came so close to turning it into a winner on the final game of the weekend.

Week 20 Picks

5: Superstars in TEN (-1):

This still feels like a solid call. A.J. Brown crushed the over for his fantasy points while Ja’Marr Chase came close but fell just short.

4: SF-GB Touchdowns: (-1)

This game only had one offensive touchdown so we did not come close here.

3: No Shootout in Tampa?: (-1)

We had the under for Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady and had a shot until things got crazy in the fourth quarter.

2: Shootout in KC: (+2)

This felt like a spot where we would see Mahomes and Allen at the top of their games and both delivered, topping their passing props easily.

1: BUF-KC Touchdowns (-1)

All of Buffalo’s passing touchdowns going to Gabriel Davis cost us this one. Travis Kelce and Devin Singletary both scored but Stefon Diggs did not.

5: Bengals-Chiefs TDs

More than 2.5 combined touchdowns (4X) between Travis Kelce, Joe Mixon, and JaMarr Chase

  • In the second-to-last week of the NFL season, we are going back to the well with one of our most consistently successful props of the 2021 NFL Season. The Bengals duo of Mixon and Chase along with the other team’s top projected scorer for more than 2.5 touchdowns with the chance to 4X our money has been a great prop all season.
  • The prop is especially strong this week given how high scoring the Bengals-Chiefs game could potentially be. This game has a total of 54.5 points and rising and we just saw these teams combine for 65 points earlier this month.
  • The Chiefs defense has given up a lot of touchdowns whenever they have faced an elite quarterback this season and there was nothing in that Buffalo game to indicate this defense is poised to hold the Bengals' hot offense in check.
  • This game features two of the three hottest quarterbacks in the NFL (Josh Allen is also way up there).
  • Chase has been held out of the end zone three straight weeks but has proven to be an elite touchdown scorer this season, with 13 touchdowns in the regular season.
  • His career-best game came against this same Chiefs defense back in Week 17, when he caught 11 passes for 266 yards and 3 touchdowns. He hit the over 2.5 all by himself.
  • Counting the playoffs, Joe Mixon has scored 17 touchdowns in 18 games, averaging almost 1.0 touchdowns per game on his own.
  • Kelce has come alive down the stretch for the Chiefs, scoring at least once in each of the last five games (1.2 touchdowns per game).
  • In his last nine postseason games, Kelce has caught 11 touchdowns.

4: Run games in KC

Joe Mixon MORE than 60.5 rushing yards
Clyde Edwards-Helaire MORE than 48.5 rushing yards

  • Both defenses would be thrilled if their opponent ran the ball regularly, so we should expect some light boxes on both sides.
  • The Bengals defense under Lou Anarumo has focused on making opposing offenses “play left-handed,” which means taking away what they do best. Last week, Cincinnati sold out to stop Derrick Henry and held him very much in check. But when they play an elite passing offense, the strategy is completely different.
  • We saw that in the first matchup between these two teams when the Bengals gave up 155 rushing yards on 6.7 yards per carry but still came away with the win.
  • Look for Clyde Edwards-Helaire to step back into a larger role. In his first game back from injury, he was clearly the Chiefs' most effective runner against Buffalo.
  • In that game, Jerick McKinnon averaged just 2.4 yards per carry and had no runs of more than five yards. Meanwhile, Edwards-Helaire racked up 60 yards on just seven carries for an average of 86 yards per carry and seemed to provide the offense with a much-needed jolt.
  • Expect the Chiefs to take a similar approach and drop some extra men in coverage after Joe Burrow torched them for 446 yards in the last meeting.
  • The Bengals may welcome that approach. Despite recent trends, this is a team that believes in establishing the run and knows that their best chance of victory is to play keep away from Patrick Mahomes II.

3: Star WRs

JaMarr Chase MORE than 89.5 receiving yards
Tyreek Hill MORE than 84.5 receiving yards

  • We get a strong leverage play here with a strong chance to 3X our money in a scenario where this game turns into even a little bit of a shootout.
  • The Bengals have been underdogs nine times this season (not counting the meaningless Week 18 game). In those nine games, Chase has gone over his receiving yardage prop eight times (88%). In short, the Bengals force-feed Chase in games where they know they will need to have an aggressive offensive game plan.
  • The Chiefs play the highest percentage of man coverage in the league. Chase has feasted against man coverage.
  • If Kansas City decides to take a zone heavy approach, we should probably expect to see some coverage breakdowns as we saw regularly in the Bills game. It only takes one missed assignment by a safety for Chase to pop off a huge gain that would virtually guarantee the over here.
  • Tyreek Hill has topped 100 receiving yards in four of his last six playoff games.
  • While the Bengals held Hill in check in the previous meeting, this unit has given up some big games in the rare instances they faced elite wide receivers this season. A.J. Brown went for 142 yards just last week. Davante Adams had 206 yards against Cincinnati. A number of other wide receivers in the next tier down (Mike Williams, Adam Thielen, Marquise Brown, Hunter Renfrow, etc.) also had 90-plus receiving yards against this defense.

2: Sneaky Unders

Deebo Samuel LESS than 53.5 receiving yards
Odell Beckham LESS than 51.5 receiving yards

We have mentioned here regularly how Deebo Samuel has almost had two separate seasons. Let’s go deeper into those trends:

Through Week 9, Samuel averaged 10.1 targets and 0.8 carries per game.

Since Week 10, Samuel has averaged 4.7 targets and 7.3 carries per game.

Through the first eight games, Samuel never saw less than eight targets in any game.

In the last 10 games, Samuel has seen more than six targets just once.

As the above numbers show, Samuel has become a true slash player. While he has been extremely effective in that role, his opportunities as a pass-catcher have diminished greatly. If he has a big game on Sunday, it is more likely he does so as a runner than as a receiver.

In 10 games with the Rams, Beckham’s median for receiving yards is 38.

In the Rams' two matchups against the 49ers, Beckham had 18 receiving yards in both games.

1: 49ers Rams TDs

More than 2.5 combined touchdowns (4X) between Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and Cam Akers

  • Akers played 81% of the snaps and had 27 touches against Tampa Bay last week. He has clearly regained the true lead-back role for the Rams.
  • Cooper Kupp has scored a touchdown in 7-of-8 games going back to Week 13. No wide receiver in the NFL has a higher weekly touchdown projection than Kupp.
  • Kupp had 18 catches for 240 yards and a touchdown in two games against the 49ers this season.
  • Over the last two weeks, Deebo Samuel has 20 carries. He has scored a rushing in 7-of-10 games since Week 10.
  • Samuel has at least one carry from inside the 10-yard line in eight straight games.
Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags picks Davante Adams Cam Akers Josh Allen Odell Beckham Jr Tom Brady A.J. Brown Marquise Brown Joe Burrow Ja'Marr Chase Gabe Davis Stefon Diggs Clyde Edwards-Helaire Derrick Henry Tyreek Hill Travis Kelce Cooper Kupp Patrick Mahomes II Jerick McKinnon Joe Mixon Hunter Renfrow Deebo Samuel Devin Singletary Matthew Stafford Adam Thielen Mike Williams

More by Dan Hindery

DFS First Look: Week 12

Dan Hindery, Nov 20, 2024

FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 11

Dan Hindery, Nov 16, 2024

Underdog Pick Em: Week 11

Dan Hindery, Nov 15, 2024

DFS First Look: Week 11

Dan Hindery, Nov 13, 2024

FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 10

Dan Hindery, Nov 9, 2024

Underdog Pick Em: Week 10

Dan Hindery, Nov 8, 2024

Most Recent

Eyes of the Guru IDP Info: Week 12 Everything Season Long and DFS for Week 12 Regression Alert: Week 12 IDP Start-Sit, Studs and Duds: Week 12 Dynasty Superflex Big Board and Tight End Rankings Week 12 Rushing Matchups Dynasty Trading Post: Lost-Season Veterans Game Predictor: Week 12 The Gut Check No. 639: Can You Count on Caleb Williams?