Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) is playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week.
5: Scary to go against
Kyler Murray LESS than 25.5 fantasy points
Aaron Rodgers LESS than 22.5 fantasy points
- This one feels uncomfortable. It is never fun to bet against Kyler Murray or Aaron Rodgers. But going with less is where the value lies here.
- The Footballguys consensus projections are for Murray to score 23.7 fantasy points and Aaron Rodgers to score 18.8. We are getting 1.8 and 3.7 points worth of value, respectively.
- The lack of weapons for Aaron Rodgers is a major reason why this correlation play is worth exploring. Wide receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard will be sidelined. The duo has combined for over half of the Packers receiving yards this season.
Davante Adams and Allen Lazard combined this season: 67 catches, 928 yards, 5 receiving TD.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 27, 2021
All other Packers combined this season: 89 catches, 850 yards, 10 receiving TD.
- The fact Rodgers will be throwing to backups is especially brutal considering how great the Arizona pass defense has been. The Cardinals rank 2nd in DVOA against the pass. Arizona allows just 14.7 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, second-least in the entire NFL.
- Kyler Murray has cooled off a bit after coming out of the gates with a pair of monster fantasy games. Over his past five outings, he has scored 19.5, 22.6, 13.7, 25.8, and 22.4 fantasy points. Over that stretch, he topped 25.5 points just once and barely did so.
4: Bengals are fun again
More than 2.5 touchdowns combined between JaMarr Chase, Joe Mixon, and Michael Carter
- This one is all about the Bengals side. We have a realistic shot at getting three touchdowns and 4x our money just between JaMarr Chase and Joe Mixon. This young offense is humming and playing with extreme confidence at the moment.
"That was fun...we're gonna need two more."@JoeyB wanted @Real10jayy__ and the @Bengals offense to keep their foot on the gas. 😤 pic.twitter.com/9MBQAoYSLG
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) October 26, 2021
- The Jets have allowed 11 touchdowns to opposing running backs in six games (1.8 per game), the most in the NFL. The Bengals enter the game as 10.5-point favorites and should lean heavily on Joe Mixon. Expect him to have a big day and find the end zone at least once with a great chance of scoring multiple times.
- The Jets have been stingier against opposing wide receivers but are you betting against Chase any time soon? Through seven games, he has already scored six touchdowns and has looked unstoppable of late. Chase has averaged 152.3 receiving yards per game over the last three weeks and is fresh off of torching top cornerback Marlon Humphrey.
Joe Burrow says Ja’Marr Chase is just getting better and better. Says he is too strong and fast for most defensive backs to cover and that’s what makes him unique pic.twitter.com/jz1YRypo4V
— Kelsey Conway (@KelseyLConway) October 27, 2021
- While we may not need a touchdown from the Jets to hit the more side here, Michael Carter does provide a big boost to our odds. He has scored four touchdowns over the last three weeks.
- Carter has also seen his share of snaps slowly but steadily increase as the year has gone on and played 72% of the offensive snaps last week, putting him near workhorse level in terms of playing time. He also had 20 opportunities (11 carries and 9 targets) in the Week 7 loss to the Patriots.
3: Falcons flying again
Matt Ryan MORE than 275.5 passing yards
Sam Darnold MORE than 235.5 passing yards
- This is a correlation play based upon a projected game script in which the Falcons come out slinging it on offense and the Panthers are forced to try to keep pace.
- After a shaky start, Matt Ryan has been fantastic in recent weeks. He has averaged 320.3 passing yards per game over his last three.
- The recent surge feels sustainable based upon the skill position talent Atlanta has assembled and the mismatch opportunities they are able to create. It starts with Kyle Pitts, who looks like he has fully arrived on the scene as an NFL star. Over his last two games, Pitts has racked up 282 receiving yards.
Kyle Pitts Longest Reception o21.5 -115 C
— Monotone Football (@MonotoneFootbal) October 28, 2021
Pitts is not only PFF’s highest graded rookie but also there 4th highest graded TE
Pitts has a longest rec of 39, 39, 15, 24, 25
This guy isn’t running TE routes, he’s a legitimate receiver. CAR allowed 6-44, and 3-71 L2#PlayerProps pic.twitter.com/Hdc0aAQX7k
- While Cordarrelle Patterson’s emergence at running back has received a lot of attention, less has been made of the impact it should have on Ryan’s numbers. Making a hybrid RB/WR the main option in the backfield changes the complexion of the entire offense. Patterson is starting out at running back and then motioning out to wide receiver with regularity, which leads to more passing plays.
Cordarrelle Patterson’s routes run at WR:
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) October 26, 2021
Week 1 – 3
Week 2 – 9
Week 3 – 4
Week 4 – 11
Week 5 – 17
Week 7 – 23
So, not only is he getting more RB work – he's out-carried Mike Davis 28 to 17 over the last two games – Patterson is also getting way more burn as an actual WR.
- Ryan has had 40-plus pass attempts in three straight games.
- Sam Darnold has been shaky after a hot start but this passing yardage total of 235.5 is low enough to take a shot at, especially against an Atlanta defense that is 30th in DVOA against the pass.
- The Falcons have given up 260-plus passing yards to all but one quarterback (Zach Wilson) they have faced this season.
2: Division Rivals
Josh Allen LESS than 295.5 passing yards
Tua Tagovailoa LESS than 235.5 passing yards
- This is a correlation play on the theory Buffalo controls this game and can play it relatively conservatively on offense.
- The previous meeting between these two teams (Week 2 in Miami) played out exactly in that manner with the Bills cruising to a 35-0 win. Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett combined for 182 passing yards. Buffalo didn’t need much from Josh Allen, who threw for 179 yards.
- Allen has thrown for more than 295 passing yards in just one of seven career games against the Dolphins, who are finally getting healthy on defense.
- The Bills pass defense ranks first in the NFL in DVOA and is lapping the field. Their -34.2% mark is nearly 50% better than the second-best team pass defense in the league.
- Weather concerns are not fully baked into these numbers. This game is likely to kick off with temperatures in the 40s, rain, and winds upwards of 10 MPH. It would only take a slight change in the forecast for the weather to be ugly enough to substantially impact the passing games.
1: Statement Game
Patrick Mahomes II MORE than 305.5 passing yards
Daniel Jones MORE than 260.5 passing yards
- First and foremost, this is a play based upon a belief that Patrick Mahomes II is going to right the ship. The game script where Mahomes comes out in prime time and puts to rest some of the grumbling about his play with a big game also probably forces Daniel Jones and the Giants offense to be aggressive in trying to keep pace.
- Mahomes is going through the first real rough patch of his career. Rich Eisen recently asked him if the league had “figured out the Chiefs offense.” The great ones relish these rare moments when there are doubters and a nationally televised home game after the disaster against Tennessee provides Mahomes with a golden opportunity to change the narrative of this season.
In case you’re wondering how @PatrickMahomes would react to his first prolonged stretch of #NFL adversity: with an overwhelming sense of positivity and excitement about what’s next pic.twitter.com/TtYyHA7v1z
— Rich Eisen (@richeisen) October 27, 2021
- This game has obvious shootout potential on both sides. Daniel Jones has been solid when he has had players to throw to. Through four weeks, he was averaging 296 passing yards per game.
- Jones should have more of his weapons back in the fold, including talented rookie Kadarius Toney. He has been a game-changer when on the field for the Giants and his ability to generate yards after the catch should boost Jones’ prospects.
This clip right here will get me to 2022... Kadarius Toney is insane. pic.twitter.com/qaDBYsrpGm
— Alex Wilson (@AlexWilsonESM) October 21, 2021
- Aside from Taylor Heinicke, every quarterback who has faced the Chiefs has put up big numbers. The Kansas City pass defense ranks 31st in DVOA.
Week 7 Review
Last Week: -2
Season Total: (-5) We came very close to a winning week with a pair of near-misses and a 3X on Monday night.
- 5, Thursday Night Health Questions: (-1) We got half of this one right, with the under on Odell Beckham’s receiving yards. Unfortunately, we had Javonte Williams going for more than 48.5 rushing yards, but he ended up doing most of his damage by catching passes.
- 4, Concentrated TD Projections: (-1) We were right on about the touchdowns going to predictable players (Alvin Kamara and DK Metcalf). Unfortunately, we went for the 4X and needed more than 2.5 and couldn’t get there in a game where only two touchdowns were scored.
- 3, WR Value: (-1) We only hit half of this one but it still feels like a good process. Jaylen Waddle easily went over 12.5 points with seven catches for 83 yards. Calvin Ridley did not quite get there (more than 15.5 points) with a line of 4-26-1 on 10 targets. Ridley getting 2.6 yards per target was a major outlier.
- 2, Fields breakout game?: (-1) No. No, it was not.
- 1, Narrative Street: (+2) The correlated play of Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff both throwing for more yards than expected paid off.
