Disclaimer
These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options and in MME contests there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.
This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.
Game Strategy
This is a weird showdown as the Chiefs are coming off of their worst performance in the Patrick Mahomes II era. This week, the Chiefs are 10.5 point favorites and by most accounts should have a nice bounce back week. The problem with the Chiefs on any showdown slate is that their target share is extremely narrow which ultimately drives up the price of those players making it difficult to find a lineup that you love.
Most lineups are going to be built with Kelce or Hill at the captain position, paired with Mahomes and Demarcus Robinson for cost savings. Then the choice of either Hill or Kelce at flex or taking both quarterbacks in Daniel Jones. If you’re going with this approach, it’s not a bad one, but just understand that this will be extremely common this week so you could be facing quite a bit of overlap. If you want to go unique taking someone like Sterling Shepard or KaDarius Toney as a captain could differentiate your lineup this week.
Key Injuries:
Questionable:
Sterling Shepard
KaDarius Toney
Out
Kenny Golladay
Saquon Barkley
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Captain Consideration:
- Travis Kelce
- Tyreek Hill
- Patrick Mahomes II
- Sterling Shepard
- Daniel Jones
- Kadarius Toney
- Darrel Williams
Kansas City Offense
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes II- Must Play Flex- Decent Captain
Let’s just get straight to the point here, Patrick Mahomes II is probably a must play this week. As difficult as it might be, we have to look past last week’s performance and look at the player as a collective whole. This is still a quarterback who is averaging 299 yards passing and 2.6 touchdowns per game.
Running Back
Darrel Williams- Low-End Flex/Captain Play
The problem with Darrel Williams is that in terms of a build, it is going to be difficult to find a way to fit Williams into the lineup this week. This is still a pass-first offense which will limit upside. We saw back in Week 6, what Williams could do with an expanded role as he had 21 carries, but amounted just 62 yards. He did save his day by scoring two touchdowns, which is likely what you’ll need this week in order to pay off. It’s a possibility, but facing a Giants defense that has been better as of late against the run than they were early on in the season. This is likely a contrarian play only, as you’ll sacrifice the ability to stack Mahomes with Kelce or Hill.
Wide Receiver
Travis Kelce- Great Captain/Flex
Travis Kelce is a great play this week, and is in a prime position to have a breakout game after struggling for the last several weeks. The volume continues to be there for Kelce as he is averaging 11 targets over his last three games, but he has not topped 100 yards since Week 3, and only has one touchdown in that time. This has caused his price to decrease below Tyreek Hill who has also struggled with consistency
Demarcus Robinson- Great Flex Play
There are no great options to provide cost savings on this slate except for Demarcus Robinson, so expect a high roster percentage for the wide receiver this week. Robinson has 10 targets over his last two games, so while the floor is extremely low it’s hard to find a better play as a value to allow you to afford some of these very expensive players. Robinson has led the team in snaps in each of the last two weeks as well as he has been on the field for 79% and 70% in that time.
Tyreek Hill-Great Captain/Flex
This is the first week that Tyreek Hill has not been on the injury report since injury his knee against Buffalo. Tyreek is in a great spot this week as the Giants have struggled at defending opposing slot receivers as Cooper Kupp (130 yards/2TD), CeeDee Lamb (84 yards/1TD), Terry McLaurin/Adam Humphries (18 combined catches) have all dominated and spend a portion of their time in the slot. Hill will face off against Darnay Holmes who is a fourth-round second-year player out of UCLA. The only thing separating Kelce and Hill as the top Captain play is the price and the ownership projections. Expect Hill to be the most popular captain this week (if not it will be Mahomes), so getting Kelce at a slight discount will be extremely valuable.
Other Targets-
Byron Pringle-Low-End Flex Pringle may get some love this week due to his price being affordable at just $2,200 and coming off of two games where he averaged 64 yards receiving. He’s a good play this week, the only caution is that with Tyreek Hill back to what should be full health, Pringle’s snaps should go back down to the 30% range. Pringle saw 47% of snaps last week.
Mecole Hardman- Flex Not a lot of people are going to take Mecole this week due to his price being in the middle range making it difficult to fit him in. However, this could be a mistake, as Hardman is a receiver who is on the field quite a bit for this offense. Hardman has been on the field for 60% or more of plays in every game except one this season. The only problem is that he may not have enough upside to build him as your captain as he has never had a 100-yard or a multi-touchdown game.
Giants Overview
Quarterback
Daniel Jones- Good Captain/Flex
Daniel Jones is in a really good spot tonight as Kansas City is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the season. The Chiefs have allowed 24.6 DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks as they’ve allowed three 300+ yard games this season and one 100+ yard rushing performance. Daniel Jones has been bad the last few weeks, but there is some optimism heading into this game as he will have both Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard back which should give him a more consistent wide receiver group this week compared to the injuries that they have been dealing with over the last several weeks.
Running Back
Devontae Booker- Fade
This is a situation you probably just want to fade, even though the matchup should be a good one. Booker is not a great running back and should be in a terrible game script that will force the Giants to throw the ball heavily. The biggest issue for Booker is the lack of true upside, as he is averaging just 3.2 yards-per-carry and does not have a run longer than 20 yards this season. At $8,200, his price is simply too high this week due to the number of top-end options that you are going to want to have some exposure to.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Sterling Shepard- Good Captain/Flex
Sterling Shepard when healthy has been the best wide receiver in New York this season. The problem has been staying on the field, as he has played in just four games this season, but in those four games, he is averaging 7 receptions for 75 yards. The Chiefs have allowed 100+ yards to a receiver in four games this season, and in all cases it was to opposing number one wide receivers (AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Mike Williams, Marquise Brown).
Kadarius Toney- Contrarian Captain
Kadarius Toney has shown flashes of absolute brilliance this season, but the consistency for the rookie remains an issue. In Toney’s five games this season 189 of his 317 yards all came in one game. However, this does not tell the full story, as his last game Toney had 3 receptions for 36 yards on his first drive before leaving due to injury. Toney has extreme upside as he could quickly establish himself as an elite wide receiver after his early season struggles, but the floor is very low for him this week as we don’t know how healthy he will be after missing last week and being questionable this week. A lot of questions that make it uncertain to trust him in a flex spot but is intriguing as a Captain who could provide savings and uniqueness compared to competitors who will likely have very similar builds as already discussed.
Other Targets-
Eli Penny- Flex- Cheap punt play, but Penny did see 9 carries last week. If something were to happen to Booker, Penny would easily pay off his salary this week at just $600.
