Photo: Imagn Images

UPDATE: Michael Thomas did have surgery (as we speculate in the original article below), and will miss a chunk of the regular season. Our injury expert Jene Bramel expects a PUP list start, meaning Thomas will miss six or more regular season games. Further complicating matters, head coach Sean Payton publicly questioned why Thomas waited so long to have the procedure, and other reports indicate Thomas was MIA for months of the offseason, frustrating the team and the front office. Sadly, this could turn into a lost season for the talented receiver, and we now can't rule out a mid-season trade once he's healthy.

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We Can Forgive, But Can We Forget?

Fantasy football is a game of logic, research, statistical analysis, and historical context. It’s also a game of passion, frustration, and superstition. Where else can you find hobbyists building complex regression models while wearing their favorite jersey that hasn’t been washed in weeks to protect a winning streak? Despite our most systematic approach to rankings and projections, we’re not immune to the sting of past disappointments.

Enter Michael Thomas.

To say Thomas was a disappointment last year would be like saying the city of Atlantis is hard to find on a map.

A year after setting an NFL record with 149 receptions, Thomas was the consensus No. 1 receiver across the industry last preseason. The debate wasn’t whether Thomas should be drafted first at the position; the question was how early in the first round he should be selected?

Sadly, his season was a disaster, and those who held onto him paid dearly. Very few teams who drafted Thomas and kept him on their roster made their league’s championship game, much less took home the title.

Difference between 2020 ADP and Final Fantasy Ranking, 30 Biggest Misses

You would think after crushing fantasy fortunes in such grand fashion, Thomas’ ADP would plummet this year. But that’s not what’s happened:

Does Thomas warrant a top-10 ADP? Does it adequately price in last year’s disaster and the uncertainty at quarterback? Or is Thomas’ ADP too low? Have we overreacted to one bad season and forgotten about a historic four-year start to his career?

An All-Time Great Career (Before 2020)

NFL Receivers through their first 4 seasons (NFL History)

Thomas' total of 470 receptions through four seasons is not only the best in NFL history, it's 69 receptions better than Jarvis Landry -- who held the record previously. Thomas is also first, all-time, in receiving yards through four seasons. And he ranks behind only Randy Moss for most fantasy points scored in four seasons. He's on a Hall of Fame trajectory, or at least he was until 2020.

So What Happened?

Thomas injured his ankle in Week 1 and missed the next six games. As he was working his way back from the ankle injury, Thomas was suspended for a game after punching a teammate. He returned for six games, playing mainly with Taysom Hill, before landing on the Reserve/Injured list with three games left in the regular season. He was back on the field for the Saints' two-game playoff run but was shut out against the Buccaneers.

Surgery?

In January, reports surfaced that Thomas would require surgery on his injured ankle. It turns out Thomas tried to play through a litany of serious injuries knowing it was likely Drew Brees’ final season.

Saints’ WR Michael Thomas is likely to have surgeries on both the torn deltoid and other injured ligaments in his high ankle this offseason, per source. He knew it was likely Drew Brees’ last year and didn’t want to miss out trying win a Super Bowl with him.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 19, 2021

Oddly, we have no confirmation Thomas underwent the surgical procedures. There have been no media reports confirming the surgeries nor a prognosis. But Saints head coach Sean Payton said Thomas was “so far, so good” at June minicamp. We’re assuming he’s 100% healthy entering training camp, but if he’s not – particularly if we find out he opted out of the surgeries – consider him a much riskier proposition at current ADP.

Assuming He’s Healthy, What About the Quarterback Situation?

After more than a decade of excellent under center, the Saints are gambling on two wildcards: Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston. The coaching staff has given no indication of how they’re leaning, and it probably comes down to training camp performance. Hill enters his fifth season as a clear Payton favorite. He played regularly, mainly as a gadget player, in recent seasons and importantly started in Drew Brees’ absence last year. The problem is Hill is already 30 years old and has 4 career touchdown passes. The other option is Jameis Winston – a former first-overall pick by division rival Tampa Bay. Winston was last seen throwing a league-high 30 interceptions while also leading the league with 5,109 yards.

The Odd Couple

Conventional wisdom favors Winston as a fantasy catalyst because he has a history of prolific passing offenses and has the skill set to make any pass in the playbook. But Payton went with Hill last year in Brees’ absence, and the gadget master was far more efficient than feared, completing more than 70% of passes, leading the team to a 3-1 record, and scoring 81 points in four games. Neither Winston nor Hill have large contracts beyond this season; it’s the definition of camp battle.

Does Thomas’ fantasy value depend on who wins the job?

The boring answer is – we don’t know yet. But we can make an educated guess.

Thomas was surprisingly good with Hill under center

Even though Hill was a game manager in his month stint as the starter, he had no problem featuring Thomas. Thomas was on a 120-catch, 1,372-yard pace with Hill, although he didn’t score a touchdown. The lack of scoring is odd, but the usage is more predictive and should calm the nerves if Hill wins the job and the Saints push for a balanced offensive approach.

Winston is an unknown, but he made Mike Evans a star

Jameis Winston targeted Mike Evans 713 times in five seasons, averaging 143 targets per game. Evans was a perennial fantasy star paired with Winston, which bodes well for Thomas’ chances of success if Winston wins the job. Evans and Thomas are different players, but both are big, alpha receivers capable of running the full route tree. Both are aggressive at the point of attack and do their best work on the outside. It’s not a perfect proxy, but it’s hard to look at Winston’s rapport with Evans and think Thomas can’t thrive.

Thomas’ target share should remain massive

Outside of star running back Alvin Kamara, who is a threat to Thomas’ target share? Emmanuel Sanders is gone. Jared Cook is gone. TreQuan Smith has a valuable role but is inconsistent and won’t command a larger role. Tight end Adam Trautman has promise, but he’s unlikely to see more snaps and targets than Cook did. If Thomas isn’t featured, how can the Saints offense function?

STATS AND PROJECTIONS

Final Thoughts

Last year was a gut punch. It's one thing for an NFL player to fall short of expectations. That's par for the course. But it's entirely another for a consensus first-round pick to barely crack the Top 100 at his position. Thomas' fall from grace is nearly unprecedented given his Hall of Fame start through four seasons. We shouldn't ignore last year's struggles, but there's ample reason to look past them. Thomas' ankle was an issue all season, and he later admitted to playing through multiple ligament problems because he wanted to make a final Super Bowl push with Drew Brees. Presuming he's healthy in camp (a big if until we know the status of his proposed surgeries), Thomas is talented enough to thrive regardless of who plays quarterback. We know Jameis Winston can force-feed his top target as he did with Mike Evans in Tampa Bay. And while Taysom Hill projects as a glorified game manager, he featured Thomas in their four starts together. With few alternatives on the roster and having just restructured his contract to create cap space, Thomas will 100% be a Saint for 2021 and will be counted on as the team's lead playmaker alongside Alvin Kamara. Expect more volatility from all the Saints players without Drew Brees' steadying presence, but Thomas' year-end numbers should justify another top-10 pick.

Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail at wood@footballguys.com.

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