We are two weeks into the season and we're starting to get some clarity, which is always a good thing, no matter if it's good news or bad. It's the unknown and making important decisions involving the unknown, which makes this hobby a challenge. The more we know, the better off we are.
So What Do We Know? A Lot, Actually
The first three weeks of the season are my favorite. So much is being learned at this time. The cream is rising to the top. Opportunities are being presented for players and several have answered the bell with a successful first two games. Injuries are starting to mount, especially for quarterbacks. With every injury comes an opportunity for someone else to fill the void, and the cycle continues. Winning your league is about having key performers and knowing who to target before they rise to power. Although it's not a must, players on winning teams are generally more successful fantasy options.
Teams that are 2-0: Tampa Bay, Carolina, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco, Arizona, Denver, Las Vegas
Teams that are 0-2: Atlanta, Detroit, Minnesota, New York Giants, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, New York Jets
What Makes a Successful Fantasy Running Back?
1. Opportunity - There is more of a chance to have success if the opportunity for carries is high. The following teams lead the way in running plays per game. You want to have running backs on these teams. These are also the backs you should target for proactive waiver claims, if available.
- 37.0 Baltimore (Lamar Jackson, TySon Williams, Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman)
- 34.5 Houston (Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, David Johnson)
- 33.0 San Francisco (Elijah Mitchell, Trey Sermon, JaMycal Hasty, Kyle Juszczyk, Jeffrey Wilson - IR)
- 31.0 Tennessee (Derrick Henry, Jeremy McNichols, Darryonton Evans - IR)
- 30.0 Philadelphia (Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell)
- 30.0 Carolina (Christian McCaffrey, Chuba Hubbard)
- 30.0 Chicago (David Montgomery, Damien Williams)
- 29.5 Cleveland (Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Demetric Felton)
- 29.0 Denver (Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams, Mike Bell)
The more plays a team runs the greater chance of having positive fantasy success. Understanding which teams run more plays per game and which teams run fewer will give us a better indication of which players to target when it comes to setting a lineup.
Total Plays Per Game
Teams in green run more plays per game so naturally, the chances are higher for more production. The opposite is true for teams in red.
- 73.5 TEN
- 72.0 LSV
- 71.5 BUF
- 70.0 LAC, DET
- 68.5 DAL
- 68.0 CAR, IND
- 67.5 BAL, MIN
- 66.5 HOU, ATL, DEN
- 65.0 CHI
- 64.0 NYJ
- 63.5 ARI, NE
- 62.0 TB
- 61.5 NYG, SF
- 61.0 CIN, MIA, PHI
- 59.0 JAC, WAS
- 56.5 CLE, GB
- 55.5 PIT
- 55.0 LAR, KC
- 52.5 SEA
- 51.5 NO
Total Plays Allowed Per Game
The teams are allowing the fewest plays per game. It would stand to reason that you would want to target your players who are playing against the teams in green and shy away from players who are playing the teams in red.
- 77.0 SEA
- 73.0 TB
- 71.5 PIT
- 71.0 WAS, JAC
- 69.5 SF
- 68.0 CIN
- 67.5 NYG
- 67.0 LAR, MIA
- 66.0 PHI
- 64.5 BAL
- 64.0 MIN
- 63.5 ATL
- 63.0 DAL
- 62.5 NO, HOU, BUF
- 62.0 KC, ARI
- 61.5 LSV
- 60.0 NYJ, NE
- 59.5 TEN, CLE
- 58.0 GB, DET
- 56.5 IND
- 54.5 LAC, DEN
- 52.0 CHI
- 51.5 CAR
Negative matchups in terms of number of plays for Week 3 - CLE vs CHI, KC vs LAC, NO at NE
Key Stats for Identifying Wide Receiver Success
Target Percentage (% of team's targets)
- 39% Deebo Samuel, SF
- 38% Cooper Kupp, LAR
- 36% Brandin Cooks, HOU
- 32% Diontae Johnson, PIT
- 31% Marquise Brown, BAL
- 30% CeeDee Lamb, DAL
- 30% DK Metcalf, SEA
- 30% Tyler Lockett, SEA
- 29% Tyreek Hill, KC
- 28% Stefon Diggs, BUF
- 28% D.J. Moore, CAR
- 28% Davante Adams, GB
- 28% Darren Waller, LSV
- 28% Sterling Shepard, NYG
Receptions on First Down - Players on this list are generally thought to be reliable sources of yardage on first down.
- 8 Terry McLaurin, WAS
- 8 Adam Thielen, MIN
- 8 Mike Williams, LAC
- 8 Amari Cooper, DAL
- 7 Christian McCaffrey, CAR
- 7 T.J. Hockenson, DET
- 7 Sterling Shepard, NYG
- 7. Cole Beasley, BUF
- 7 Diontae Johnson, PIT
- 7 Marvin Jones, JAC
- 6 Derrick Henry, TEN
- 6 Davante Adams, GB
- 6 Tyreek Hill, KC
- 6 Rondale Moore, ARI
- 6 Jamaal Williams, DET
- 6 CeeDee Lamb, DAL
- 6 Darnell Mooney, CHI
- 6 Deebo Samuel, SF
- 6 Logan Thomas, WAS
- 6 Darren Waller, LSV
- 6 Marquise Brown, BAL
- 6 Chris Godwin, TB
- 6 Michael Pittman, IND
- 6 Braxton Berrios, NYJ
Receptions resulting in a first down - Teams rely on these players to sustain drives and move the ball.
- 12 Travis Kelce, KC
- 12 Chris Godwin, TB
- 11 Amari Cooper, DAL
- 11 Christian McCaffrey, CAR
- 11 Keenan Allen, LAC
- 11 Cooper Kupp, LAR
- 11 T.J. Hockenson, DET
- 10 Sterling Shepard, NYG
- 10 Mike Williams, LAC
- 10 CeeDee Lamb, DAL
- 10 D.J. Moore, CAR
- 9 Tyreek Hill, KC
- 9. Terry McLaurin, WAS
- 9 Marquise Brown, BAL
- 9 Deebo Samuel, SF
- 8 Tee Higgins, CIN
- 8 Adam Thielen, MIN
- 8 Diontae Johnson, PIT
- 8 Rondale Moore, ARI
Tight End Production
Tight ends with 6+ targets in each game
- Noah Fant, DEN
- T.J. Hockenson, DET
- Travis Kelce, KC
- Kyle Pitts, ATL
- Darren Waller, LSV
Tight ends with 50+ receiving yards in each game
- Darren Waller, LSV
- T.J. Hockenson, DET
- Travis Kelce, KC
Tight end target percentage (% of snaps with a target)
- 28% Darren Waller, LSV
- 22.4% Travis Kelce, KC
- 20.4% T.J. Hockenson, DET
- 20.0% Noah Fant, DEN
- 17.9% Mark Andrews, BAL
- 16.9% Kyle Pitts, ATL
- 16.3% Austin Hooper, CLE
- 16.3% David Njoku, CLE
- 16.2% Jack Doyle, IND
- 16.1% George Kittle, SF
- 15.1% Rob Gronkowski, TB
- 14.9% Logan Thomas, WAS
- 14.8% Jared Cook, LAC
HAVE FANTASY PLAYERS ON HIGH SCORING TEAMS
Top scoring teams through Week 2 (points scored)
- 79 TB
- 72 ARI
- 68 KC
- 63 BAL
- 61 LAR
- 60 CLE
- 59 LSV
- 58 SF, SEA, HOU
- 57 MIN
- 51 BUF
- 50 DEN, DET
- 49 DAL
- 46 WAS, TEN
- 45 CAR, NO
- 44 CIN
- 43 PHI
- 42 NYG
- 41 NE
- 40 PIT, IND
- 38 GB
- 37 LAC
- 34 JAC, CHI
- 31 ATL
- 20 NYJ
- 17 MIA
Player Notes
Some notes on players for those who are in deeper leagues.
Olamide Zaccheaus, ATL - His snap % increased from 26% in Week 1 to 58% in Week 2. Russell Gage is not showing much, perhaps Zaccheaus will get a chance to earn some more reps?
Rashod Bateman, BAL - A preseason groin injury has sidelined him to this point but he could return to practice in the next week or two. He missed valuable time to become more accustomed to the playbook but if he's ready to go when his body is ready, he could be a nice pick-me-up type of player if he is available on the waiver wire.
Cedrick Wilson, DAL - With Michael Gallup already sidelined and now Amari Cooper dealing with a rib injury, we could start to see Wilson emerge as a growing target in Dak Prescott's offense. Week 2 did not call for a high-volume passing offense, but that could change any given week. Wilson has shown the ability to make plays in the limited action he has seen.
Jack Doyle, IND - The Colts usually have a fairly productive tight end corps, however, that has yet to take form this season. Jack Doyle is 2nd on the team in target share (19%) behind Michael Pittman (21%) and ahead of Zach Pascal (16%). This past week Doyle's 24% target share dominated Mo Alie-Cox's (6%). Alie-Cox and rookie Kylen Granson are the more athletic options, but Doyle is the one seeing the most action so far. The Colts have the most touchdowns to the tight end position over the last five years. It stands to believe this position will produce at some point.
Van Jefferson, LAR - After starting Week 1 with a 69% snap share to go along with a touchdown, Jefferson jumped to 92% in Week 2. The Rams pre-dominantly use a three-WR base offense and Jefferson is fully immersed as a key contributor. His rise to fantasy relevance could start to climb.
Darius Slayton, NYG - Slayton is the odd man out when New York moves to a 12-personnel offense, but he's still running routes at a 70% clip. He's right there with 19% of the team's target share. We've seen Daniel Jones gravitate to Slayton in the past. His time could be coming to reach pay dirt.
Braxton Berrios, NYJ - It's just a matter of time before Zach Wilson becomes more confident in his abilities and the Jets playbook. Elijah Moore and Corey Davis will be his dominant targets at that time, but right now, he's using Braxton Berrios out of the slot on shorter, higher-percentage routes. This may be a directive from the coaching staff, or it may be Wilson's preference as a hot read when under duress. Either way, Berrios is seeing a 25% target share to lead the team, including a 29% share in Week 2.
George Kittle, SF - We know what Kittle is capable of but the 49ers have been running the ball often relegating Kittle to a blocker. His percentage of routes run in Week 1 was 57% but it climbed to 88% in Week 2. Deebo Samuel has been the hot hand for the 49ers receiving corps this season with a whopping 39% target share. Kittle is next on the list at 18%. His time is coming.
Antonio Brown, TB - The Bucs are starting to use more 12-personnel with Cameron Brate coming onto the field over Antonio Brown. This may be a result of the Bucs focusing more on the ground attack or simply running the ball because the game is in hand. What looks like a downward trend for Brown's snap share and target share is more a result of the team's increased rushing tendency. Brown's production is intermittent for the time being, but in games that follow more of a passing game script, he'll appear once again.
It's Time to Fine Tune
If you started off 0-2 or 1-1, it's not too late to turn things around. Sometimes, one player in your lineup with a big game can make the difference between a win and a loss. There are plenty of players who have yet to have a big week and some are probably on your roster. Make the right waiver picks and lineup decisions and don't be afraid to make a trade that could change your season for the better if he hits. Sometimes you have to overpay for the player you want, but if it works for your lineup, I say do it.
Questions, comments, and suggestions are always welcome. Hit me up on Twitter.
