Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterbacks
Parsons
Taylor Heinicke - Heinicke has three quality fantasy outings in a row, including eight total touchdowns over the span. Heinicke has been a Superflex savior this season for teams losing starters with injury or absorbing performances below expectations. Heinicke is venturing into the quarterback zone where he could-should see starts beyond this season and might be the starter even after Ryan Fitzpatrick returns (if he does for Washington this year). At a minimum, Heinicke is a sturdy NFL backup with viable fantasy upside if pushed into a starting role as shown now.
Ben Roethlisberger - Is this the end for Roethlisberger? Some of his misses are glaring and, even with quality weapons around him, Roethlisberger has been a fantasy afterthought this season. Yet to have multiple touchdowns in a game and posting 10 total rushing yards, Roethlisberger is not even a volume play as three games of 40+ passes have not aided his fantasy bottom line. Strangely, Roethlisberger was viewed as a win-now play entering 2021, but looks like a bet on "if he plays in 2022, let's hope things are better/different" one.
Bischoff
Taylor Heinicke – Heinicke came into the season behind aging veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the injury to Fitzpatrick in Week 1 provided Heinicke a massive opportunity. We see an example of a talented player grabbing an opportunity, seizing it, and it is hard to see him returning to the bench when Fitzpatrick returns from his hip injury. Heinicke has faced two relatively porous defenses (New York Giants in Week 2 and Atlanta in Week 4), but he faced Buffalo in Week 3 and played pretty well. He has thrown for seven touchdowns, 838 yards, and three interceptions in the past three weeks. Heinicke is also athletic, and his ability to generate yards running the ball helps his fantasy production. He has 70 yards rushing and a score in that span. The 28-year-old signal-caller once looked like a solid short-term play with Fitzpatrick returning, but he is much more than that, and he has moved up dynasty rankings significantly over the past three weeks.
Trey Lance – Veteran quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was injured in the first half in Week 4 for the 49ers, and that injury pushes Lance into a starting position a little sooner than most thought. Lance was always the future quarterback for San Francisco after the colossal move the 49ers made to jump up in the 2021 NFL draft to acquire him, but his time comes now. To be sure, Lance will have rough moments, but he will make big plays right away, and I expect the 49ers offense to shift a bit to play to Lance's strengths as a player. That means plenty of designed runs, play-action passes, and vertical shots.
McNamara
Daniel Jones - I wrote about Daniel Jones in my last update, and he is still trending upwards. Jones is a top 10 quarterback through four weeks, despite only six total touchdowns. Jones has continued to grow in year three, up to 8.2 yards per attempt, and a 3.6% completion percentage over expectation. There were a lot of negative narratives about Jones earlier in his career, which has resulted in some market hesitancy in reacting to Jones’s ascension.
Jameis Winston - Entering the season, Winston looked like a good growth candidate in a New Orleans offense that has been consistently ahead of the curve throughout the Drew Brees era. Instead, the New Orleans offense is the most run-heavy in the league, with Winston attempting only 86 passes through 4 games. Winston is a top 24 quarterback thus far, but with a 9.3% touchdown rate, he is a candidate for regression. Sean Payton’s track record on player evaluation is one to trust in dynasty, and his decision to hide Winston tells all you need to know about how he feels about Winston.
Running Back
Bischoff
Mike Davis – Davis has been incredibly disappointing through four games for the Falcons. He has not been the explosive playmaker he was in Carolina last year, and he has only generated 231 yards and one score through four games. He has totaled 151 yards on 49 carries, and he has caught 16 passes on his 19 targets. The entire Falcons offense looks out of sorts, and Davis seems stuck in the mud for now. Davis is in a bit of a freefall currently, and it is unrealistic to think he is worth much in a trade right now.
Jeremy McNichols – McNichols is the primary backup to starting running back Derrick Henry, with running back Darrynton Evans missing time to injury. McNichols is not Henry, and there is no expectation that he could fill Henry's shoes in the event of an injury, but he is making his mark as a receiving weapon in the Titans offense. McNichols caught 12 passes in Week 4, and while it is super unrealistic to think that kind of workload remains, McNichols likely remains a part of the Titans' offense with a third-down role.
Antonio Gibson – Gibson is uber-talented, coming into the season with big expectations, but he has not met them to this point in the season. It is challenging for a running back to be a fantasy monster without a prominent receiving role, but that is currently happening with Gibson. Running back J.D. McKissic is essentially the third-down back in Washington, and that's eating at Gibson's ceiling. Gibson only has eight catches in four games, and the expectation that he would absorb most of the workload has not happened. He is also not seeing a heavy load of carries in this offense, averaging 13 carries over the past three games. Gibson is still an excellent fantasy back, but it is time to recognize he is in a timeshare that will limit him.
McNamara
Ezekiel Elliott - Elliott had a slow start but has continued to his strong career production, into his 26-year-old season. Elliott is a top 6 player through four weeks and has dispelled the concerns about Tony Pollard taking his job earlier in the season, securing 62% of the touches in the offseason through four weeks. Elliott is also tied for fifth in rushing yards over expectation per attempt (1.17), a sign he is outplaying his situation.
TySon Williams - TySon Williams had the making of a breakout player through three weeks before being a healthy scratch in week four. Williams is the most dangerous back in the Ravens backfield and ranks second in the league in rushing yards over expectation (1.49). His status as a healthy scratch in week four makes little sense given his production, so this is a key to watch in the coming weeks.
James Robinson - After playing behind Carlos Hyde in week one, James Robinson has vanquished Carlos Hyde to the inactive list. Robinson is an RB1 through four weeks and has a chance this season to secure his role ahead of Travis Etienne in the 2022 season, similar to the way Chris Carson did ahead of first-round pick Rashaad Penny.
Parsons
Saquon Barkley - Barkley is progressing well this season. After tune-up performances in Weeks 1-2, Barkley jolted to life in Week 3 with a juicy Atlanta matchup and again against a stingier Saints defense in Week 3. Barkley is edging closer to his typical self by the week. Also, the running back position has few without question marks for impact this season. Even if skeptical of Barkley, there is unlikely to be more than 4-5-6 options currently on equal (or better) ground for 2021 in terms of usage and talent. Barkley is back and the past two weeks are highly encouraging to the end-end impact player pre-injury.
TySon Williams - This season is critical for the no-pedigree profile of Williams. He enjoyed part of Week 1 as the clear starter for Baltimore but since his role has devolved behind Latavius Murray and now, in Week 4, to a healthy scratch so the team could activate LeVeon Bell. All this is without J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards for 2021, who are slated to return next season. Williams is buried in a committee with established profiles (Murray, Bell, Devonta Freeman) and in a downward spiral on a team centered around the play-making of Lamar Jackson.
Wide Receiver
McNamara
Mike Williams - A top 6 wide receiver through four weeks, Mike Williams is amid a rare fifth season breakout. Playing on a franchise tag, Williams should get a good contract, either in the form of an extension with the Chargers or in the offseason similar to Corey Davis’s contract. Either way, this breakout takes Williams into a realm of long-term assets at the wide receiver position.
D.J. Moore - D.J. Moore has struggled to score touchdowns through his first three seasons. His three touchdowns through four weeks are one short of his career-high. Moore’s status as a top 6 scorer, with 7.5 receptions and 99.5 yards per game through four weeks should vault him into the elite range of the position.
Terry McLaurin - Terry McLaurin has proven to be quarterback proof throughout his career. After an injury to Ryan Fitzpatrick, McLaurin has continued to produce with quarterback Taylor Heinicke. McLaurin’s 47.1% of his team’s air yards is third behind only Brandin Cooks and Calvin Ridley, and 7th in percentage of his team’s targets. McLaurin’s resume under a variety of quarterbacks is a good sign for his stability as an elite dynasty asset.
Parsons
Denzel Mims - Mims has an intriguing draft profile (Day 2, quality physical profile, productive), however, he is buried on this Jets depth chart to the tune of being WR4 in Week 4 and seeing just 16% of the snaps even with Elijah Moore out. Corey Davis is locked in and Jamison Crowder has been a productive NFL player. Will Mims move on in the offseason still on his rookie contract? That's the glimmer of hope for Mims fans, otherwise, Mims will continue down this bust track.
Van Jefferson - Jefferson was one of my least favorite profiles at wide receiver in his draft class. However, his productive track in 2021 has to be accounted for in a passing game with a strong quarterback and two other notable wide receivers. Jefferson has two games of 80+ yards in the opening month and is on pace for around 1,000 yards this season. Jefferson has Round 2 pedigree and, once on the success track (Jefferson is close and will surpass the threshold with another few similar games), has to be respected with a requisite ranking and valuation.
Bischoff
Quintez Cephus – Cephus makes plays when given opportunities, and there is a significant opportunity in the Detroit passing game. While he is not an explosive athlete compared to other receivers, he is a good route runner with a strong understanding of how to use his body to get open. He is a developmental player requiring time, but it is not out of the realm to see him as a WR2 in this offense going forward.
Rashod Bateman – Bateman is moving in a positive direction as he is coming off of injured reserve, and if there is a time to get him in a dynasty format, that time is now. Bateman fills out the Ravens receiving corps as he can win outside, and he could develop into WR1 for the Ravens, opening up the offense for quarterback Lamar Jackson. Patience is required here, but Bateman could pay huge dividends over time, and he is a must-add if available.
Michael Gallup – Gallup is still on injured reserve, and he is not going to play in Week 5 due to his calf injury. Like Bateman above, the time to add Gallup is now. Gallup has been very productive in the past in three-receiver sets or when others miss time. There is plenty of meat on the bone in the Dallas passing attack when Gallup returns, and he could be very productive if either receiver Amari Cooper or CeeDee Lamb were to miss time. Also, Gallup will be a 26-year-old free agent after the season, and he is talented enough to command a payday elsewhere, giving him a chance to be a productive starting receiver.
Tight End
Parsons
Dalton Schultz - Schultz is not going away. While Blake Jarwin was assumed to be the clear starter for Dallas in 2021 returning from injury, hat tip to Jordan McNamara here at Footballguys for questioning the assumption-valuation on the depth chart. Schultz had a productive 2020 in relief of Jarwin and has progressed with three games of six receptions and hauling in 20-of-23 targets this season. While the snaps and routes point to a committee with Schultz and Jarwin, Schultz has been the clear preferred option.
Austin Hooper - I continue to wonder where the destination is in fantasy with Austin Hooper. Probably too much name cache to outright cut, but minimal appeal to trade. Hooper is locked into a 2021 Browns team with a run-centric design, Odell Beckham back at WR1, and a crowded tight end depth chart with David Njoku and Harrison Bryant both having a weekly role. Hooper has eclipsed 30 yards once this season and yet to hit 10 PPR points in a game. Hooper is a 2TE roster spot only and even that, I would be looking to pivot elsewhere.
Bischoff
Dawson Knox – Knox was a very intriguing prospect coming out of Ole Miss, much more athletic than some thought, and capable of becoming a solid receiving option in the NFL overtime. Knox is 24 years old, and he is becoming a go-to weapon in the red zone for quarterback Josh Allen. Knox has 20 targets in four games, catching 15 balls for 144 yards and four scores. Knox is a strong option in the Bills passing attack, and he could become a mainstay as a top-10 tight end for a long time.
Dalton Schultz – Schultz has emerged as a very intriguing player in the Cowboys' potent passing attack. It has to be hard for any defense to handle all of Dallas' weapons, and Schultz is taking advantage and producing at a very high level right now. He has 23 targets, catching 20 passes for 201 yards and three touchdowns. He will cede touches to tight end Blake Jarwin, but he has really become the pass-catching tight end in this offense, and he should continue to produce at a high level.
McNamara
Dalton Schultz - Dalton Schultz is 8th at the tight end position in the percentage of his team’s targets. Schultz is ahead of Blake Jarwin in the tight end depth chart in a high-powered Dallas offense. An afterthought after a good 2020 season, Schultz is an ascending tight end in 2021.
Tyler Conklin - Tyler Conklin has taken full advantage of Irv Smith’s injury along with the departure of Kyle Rudolph in free agency. Conklin ranks in the top 10 of the position at the tight end position through four weeks. Conklin could be the 2021 version of Dalton Schultz, who came from off the radar for a fantasy-relevant season after an injured starter.
If you would like to review our most recent Dynasty rankings, here is a link.
