Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterbacks
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Ben Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger wasn't high on the dynasty list already, but he falls outside of the top 30 as it's crystal clear he's on his last legs. Even if he doesn't retire after this season, his days of being a value-added fantasy asset appear to have already ended. While this isn't necessarily a surprising analysis, it's important to flow through his downfall to the other Steelers' skill players. All of Pittsburgh's receivers probably are overvalued in dynasty formats currently.
Davis Mills - Mills' first NFL start came much earlier than anticipated and the game didn't seem too big for him. He looked poised despite having a limited supporting cast and was able to stay in the pocket and make difficult throughs despite the pass rush. While it's way too early to crown Mills a future full-time starter, he passed his first test and is worth slotting into a development spot with upside in deeper leagues.
Matthew Stafford - Stafford didn't move many spots, but it's hard to make big moves at the top of the quarterback rankings. He's had a pitch-perfect start to his Rams career and looks like an MVP candidate. He outplayed Tom Brady this past week and seems incredibly comfortable in Sean McVay's offense.
Justin Fields - Fields was horrendous in his first NFL start, and while one game hardly defines a career trajectory, it has to be factored into dynasty analysis. Taking nine sacks and holding onto the ball far too long bodes ill given the state of the Bears' offensive line. While rookies are supposed to struggle, we've been spoiled in recent years with the out-of-the-gates play from Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and others.
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Ben Roethlisberger/Dwayne Haskins - It is clear that Ben Roethlisberger is past his prime. His arm, decision making and constant need to blame others are going to make 2021 a potentially ugly finish to his career. On paper, his numbers were good enough to pass him onto someone in desperate need of a quarterback. If you can get anything back for him, do so. On that note, I would consider adding Dwayne Haskins on deeper rosters. If Pittsburgh trots out Mason Rudolph instead, then Haskins is a quick drop, but Haskins at least has upside and if he is now dedicated to his craft has great upside.
Joe Burrow - The offseason talk centered on whether Joe Burrow would be fit and then how confident he would be given his tentative approach in the preseason. Burrow has demonstrated enough in his start to 2021 to indicate that not only will he be a top quarterback this year, but for years to come. He has good weapons and the team is playing well behind him. Strong move upwards.
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Justin Herbert - Herbert has shown no signs at all of a sophomore slump, and I have moved him up to QB4, which is a jump of two spots and puts him ahead of Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson. Herbert is five years younger than Prescott and already an equally productive fantasy quarterback. Jackson and Herbert are closer in age but Herbert is more likely to have a long career. It seems the more reliant a quarterback is on his legs, the earlier the age-related regression starts.
Kirk Cousins - Cousins seems to be playing with more confidence than last season and is off to a great start. He’s averaging over 300 passing yards per game and 2.7 passing touchdowns. He is showing that he is good enough to be a starting quarterback somewhere for at least the next few years. Given how shaky some of the young quarterbacks have looked of late, the relatively "sure thing" in Cousins takes on added value.
Derek Carr - Like Cousins, there were some questions entering the season about just how long Carr would be able to hold onto his current starting job. It was not that Carr had played poorly the past few years but the Raiders seemed stuck in neutral with him at the helm. The 3-0 start and Carr’s strong play erase many of those questions. Particularly in Superflex leagues, Carr has real value as a rock-solid QB2 over the medium term. He moves up to QB19 from QB25, leapfrogging some of the struggling young quarterbacks.
Running Back
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Peyton Barber - Peyton Barber is a running back that constantly overachieves. First with Tampa Bay, then Washington, and now with the Raiders. Jon Gruden clearly preferred Barber over the more likely Kenyan Drake and 100-yard rushing games are a rarer commodity in 2021. If Josh Jacobs comes back soon, Barber is likely to take the Devontae Booker role from 2020, while Drake takes on the Jalen Richard job. Barber will be worth a roster spot, even with Jacobs returning, but expectations on his production need to be kept in check.
Royce Freeman - The injury to Christian McCaffrey may be short-term, but as was demonstrated in 2020, McCaffrey may miss more time with overuse. Expectations are that Chuba Hubbard takes the majority of the work, but he is a rookie that is far from the finished product. Enter Royce Freeman. Unwanted by Denver, Freeman has the experience and is capable enough, especially in Carolina which saw the unheralded Mike Davis become a fantasy star. Where both are available, attention will be on Hubbard, but Freeman is worth a speculative add.
Cordarrelle Patterson - Patterson is being used mostly as a running back but is still listed as a wide receiver in many leagues. Depending on your scoring system and whether he stays as a wide receiver or a running back, Patterson’s value in your league could differ greatly. With Mike Davis ineffective and a lack of receiving options, Patterson is likely to continue to see 10-15 touches a game. Definitely moving upward.
Hindery
Derrick Henry - Normally, 27-year old running backs are an easy sell for me. Running backs hit the wall hard as they approach 30-years old. However, we are seeing more signs early this season that Henry might just be built differently and I am moving him back up to RB5. He is one of the very few players in all of fantasy who give you a massive advantage heading into your weekly fantasy matchups. That huge short-term value along with the realistic possibility that he keeps this up for at least a few more years makes him a very valuable fantasy asset. Henry also benefits from the fact that some of the younger running backs have started slowly. If you are a win-now mode, there might not be a single player you’d rather have on your team.
Antonio Gibson - There is a tier of running backs tightly bunched up from RB5 to about RB14 or so. Gibson remains in that tier but I’ve dropped him from near the top (RB6) to near the bottom (RB12). To really hit his fantasy ceiling, he needs regular work in the passing game and we haven’t seen it. In the two weeks since my last rankings update, he has had back-to-back weeks with just two targets. Part of the case for Gibson over someone like Joe Mixon was receiving upside, but both have seen just about the same number of targets and Mixon is getting way more carries.
Damien Harris- I’ve dropped Harris a few spots to RB25. He simply is not getting enough work in the passing game (3 catches for -1 yards over the last two weeks). If he doesn’t score a touchdown, he is a real drag on your lineup whenever you play him.
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Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Edwards-Helaire had his best game of the season, but it came in a Chiefs loss and was also punctuated by a fumble. The Chiefs have to rediscover offensive balance if they're going to return to Super Bowl contention. Edwards-Helaire's film doesn't evoke confidence; he's just a guy. While the system and opportunity are enough to make any running back a fantasy asset, Edwards-Helaire has to vault forward on a per-touch basis soon or the Chiefs will likely find another option in next year's draft.
Christian McCaffrey - McCaffrey remains the most versatile, talented running back in the league. But he's hurt, again, and history isn't kind to workhorse running backs once they start getting banged up. Think back in NFL history and ask yourself how many star tailbacks miss as much time as McCaffrey and round back into elite form in future years? He comes off the top spot but remains in the Top 10 tenuously. After his return from this injury, he gets one more shot at reestablishing durability before you have to shop him for 70 cents on the dollar.
Mike Davis - Those of us who questioned whether Mike Davis was capable of handling a workhorse role in Atlanta know the answer now; he's not. When a converted wide receiver outplays you in all facets of the game, it's time to deeply discount your dynasty value. Any running back with a regular role holds some value, but Davis is a backup-tier option in dynasty formats.
Peyton Barber - Barber gets a mention because he was outside the Top 90 two weeks ago but now finds himself in a near workhorse role as Josh Jacobs fill-in. The fact Barber signed in Las Vegas and immediately grabbed the lead role over Kenyan Drake speaks volumes about what Jon Gruden thinks of the veteran. He's still only a top-50 running back, but he went from someone not worth rostering to someone who needs to be on a roster in every league.
Nyheim Hines - I thought Jonathan Taylor would be one of the league's elite, every-down backs. And he still might, but it's clear the coaches love and trust Hines. Hines isn't just a third-down receiving back, he also gets opportunities in high leverage situations including at the goal line. While his low touch volume adds volatility, in an era where very few running backs have week-to-week value, Hines deserves his due.
Derrick Henry - Henry moves into the No. 1 overall spot, which says a lot about the state of the running back position. Yes, he's had a very heavy career workload. Yes, he's not a difference-making receiver. But who cares? With Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook hurt again, Ezekiel Elliott struggling, and Saquon Barkley stuck on a bad team, Henry deserves the premiere spot.
Zack Moss - Moss was one of several Week 1 inactives that have proven to be headfakes. Apologies for overreacting to Moss' opening game absence, as it was injury-related, apparently. He's returned to form, and while he's still splitting touches with Devin Singletary, Moss is making the most of his opportunities particularly at the goal line.
Chuba Hubbard - Hubbard was already a sought-after backup given Christian McCaffrey's injury history, and the Panthers' propensity to give their No. 1 tailback a heavy workload regardless of game script. But the rookie moves up another tier with McCaffrey's injury and the overall cohesiveness of the Panthers team. A good defense and competent quarterbacking should provide Hubbard with a chance to star in the coming weeks.
Wide Receiver
Hindery
JaMarr Chase - Four touchdowns in his first three NFL games is a heck of a start for Chase, who I have bumped up to WR3. A couple of stats put his fantastic start into context. First, his four touchdowns are more than all the other rookie wide receivers in the class combined. Second, the Bengals did not have a single 30+ yard touchdown through the air last season. Chase has one in every single game he has played.
Mike Williams - Williams is off to a blazing start with 22 catches for 295 yards and 4 touchdowns. I will paraphrase something I wrote in my FanDuel preview article last week. Williams is receiving 10+ targets per game, is the go-to option in the red zone, and is playing with an elite young quarterback. Given all those factors, he was tabbed as a top weekly play. He will remain so for the foreseeable future. I’ve bumped him to WR23 for dynasty and that may end up being low if he gets an extension to remain in Los Angeles with Herbert.
Allen Robinson - I’ve dropped Robinson all the way down to WR30. He is borderline unstartable right now and is 28-years old. That’s not a good combination. We only have a one-week sample size, but it doesn’t appear that Justin Fields is going to be elevating Robinson’s fantasy prospects anytime real soon.
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Michael Thomas - Thomas falls 14 spots despite not playing, as the veteran has fewer ways to regain his fantasy value with Jameis Winston shaping up to be a low-volume boom-or-bust passer. The Saints are at a precipice, and Thomas could fail to regain momentum whether he stays in New Orleans or signs elsewhere.
Diontae Johnson - Johnson is banged up but the main reason for his discount is Ben Roethlisberger's loss of effectiveness. Unless you think Mason Rudolph or Dwayne Haskins are the answers (and they're not), Johnson could be looking at a number of years playing in a conservative, ineffective passing system.
DeAndre Hopkins - I stubbornly kept Hopkins in my Top 5 until this update, but it's clear the Cardinals are at their best when Kyler Murray is spreading the ball around. Hopkins remains an elite talent and is the odds-on favorite to have the best fantasy year in Arizona, but the difference between Hopkins and his teammates won't be nearly as cavernous as I projected. Hopkins is still an every-week fantasy starter at a 120-target pace, but he doesn't warrant a top-5 ranking without his prior 150+ target pace.
JaMarr Chase - There was a small window to acquire Chase in the preseason as beat writers painted a picture of ineptitude. That window is resoundingly closed, but if you can still acquire Chase for a price outside the Top 10, you should stop reading this article and make that trade right now. He just tied Randy Moss' record for starting his career with three straight touchdown games, and the sky is literally the limit for the rookie.
Mike Williams - Williams has always been a touchdown-dependent, vertical receiver with health concerns. Until this year. Williams is the most dynamic receiver in the AFC through three games and with Justin Herbert emerging as one of the best young signal-callers, Williams could easily be a top-20 receiver in 2021 and beyond.
Cooper Kupp - Kupp was already a top-25 receiver, but his explosive start and undeniable chemistry with Matthew Stafford warranted a significant move up the rankings. Many thought Robert Woods would be the main beneficiary of Stafford's arrival, given his live arm and willingness to throw downfield. But it's Kupp who's shown an ability to make plays downfield without foregoing his more familiar short- and intermediate-zone roles.
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A.J. Green - DeAndre Hopkins was clearly limited by a rib issue leaving both A.J. Green and Christian Kirk to break the 100-yard mark against the Jaguars. Green deserves an uptick in rankings, even if it’s a short-term sugar hit. He hasn’t been at his best in years, but with the Cardinals, he at least looks like a mini version of his Bengal prime.
JaMarr Chase - The decision by the Bengals to take JaMarr Chase over a tackle will be debated for a considerable period, but it is starting to look like a great call by Cincinnati. Chase has made catches that only the truly elite can make. He has done this with relatively few targets. If he is not an elite fantasy wide receiver by the end of 2022 I will be flabbergasted. Moves into my top 10.
Mike Williams - It was questioned why the Chargers gave Mike Williams the fifth year on his rookie deal. The rapport with Justin Herbert has made it obvious why it was done. Williams has been in the shadow of Keenan Allen since he entered the league. Not anymore. At the very least he is 1B to Allen’s 1A. With Allen approaching 30, Williams could be worth so much more than he is currently rated. A definite uptick.
Collin Johnson - Collin Johnson was well regarded after being drafted in Jacksonville in the fifth round of the 2020 draft. Allegedly the tallest wide receiver in the NFL, Johnson was unlucky not to make the final roster for the Jaguars. The new coaching staff and the acquisition of Marvin Jones made that task more difficult. When landing on the aptly named Giants, Johnson was expected to be just a depth acquisition. With hamstring injuries flooring Sterling Shepherd and Darius Slayton in week two, Johnson was pressed into action and acquitted himself well. He will be available in most leagues and is worthy of long-term consideration.
Tight End
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Jonnu Smith - The tight end position is depressing right now, particularly in dynasty circles. You have to dig deep to find a dozen tight ends you feel great about beyond 2021. Smith has many years in New England ahead, but he's done nothing through three weeks to justify the monstrous contract Bill Belichick gave him in free agency.
Pat Freiermuth - Rookie tight ends aren't worth much in redraft formats, but he's doing enough, particularly as a red zone threat, to confidently project him as a fantasy star in 2022 or 2023, and many years beyond.
David Njoku - Njoku isn't in the Top 20, which means he has very little 2021 value, but he's flashed enough through three weeks to remind us of his potential when healthy. Don't be surprised if Njoku becomes a reliable fantasy commodity with a team other than Cleveland in a season or two.
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Dan Arnold/Tommy Tremble - The story of these two tight ends is a case of win/win for both. Arnold was moved as part of a trade from Carolina to Jacksonville. Jacksonville needs a dual purpose receiving tight end, and Arnold should expect more targets once he acclimatizes with the Jaguars. Making Arnold expendable was the rapid development of Tommy Tremble who has been highly impressive in limited action. As a rookie, it will take time, but wait for his next invisible game to make your move. Tremble will be a vital component in the next few years for the Panthers.
Hunter Henry/Jonnu Smith - It floored me when the Patriots signed both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith in the offseason and it was staggering that Smith earned more money. Smith demonstrated against the Saints that he is low on confidence making several basic mistakes and while his best may eclipse that of Henry, the Patriots aren’t going to play someone who is making simple skill errors repeatedly. Henry should therefore be viewed as a more stable option moving forward. Things change quickly in the NFL and maybe New England gives Smith more time, but for now, I would much prefer Henry.
Hindery
Tommy Tremble - It was only a couple of plays in one game but we saw some real flashes from Tremble last Thursday. The Panthers must have seen the same thing because they traded Dan Arnold away to Jacksonville a few days after the game. Before the draft, Tremble drew a few George Kittle comparisons as a guy with great athleticism who was underused in college and had more upside than it might first appear. I’ve moved him up to TE24 and he is a player who could end up being a big riser this season if he can build on his early success.
Jonnu Smith - Smith falls to TE15. This New England offense does not look like it is going to be able to support both Smith and Hunter Henry as viable fantasy options. With both signed to long-term deals, that leaves us with a pair of fantasy TE2s (at best) and it is hard to imagine what would give either player a big boost any time soon.
If you would like to review our most recent Dynasty rankings, here is a link.
