The NFL Draft is one of the best times of the year, and the premier event of the NFL offseason. Careers will be launched, dreams will be realized, and money will be made -- and not just for the players. With legalized gambling pervading the United States, there is plenty of cash up for grabs for football fans during the Draft as well.
Those looking to dive into the NFL Draft betting waters don't need to do it blind either. Mock draft data can be remarkably helpful in finding value bets. Benjamin Robinson's Grinding the Mocks aggregates mock draft data from across the web for your use. The site has a variety of tools, including player graphs to see mocked draft position trends, as well as stock charts for each team.
Additionally, there is value in following the top mock-drafters from around the industry. These range from NFL insiders like Daniel Jeremiah of the NFL Network, to elite news-aggregators such as Matthew Freedman of The Action Network. Here are the 10 best mock-drafters to track, in no particular order:
- Jeremiah
- Freedman
- Kevin Hanson - EDS Football
- Scott Smith - Action Network
- Ryan McCrystal - Sharp Football
- Peter Schrager - NFL Network
- Todd McShay - ESPN
- Evan Silva - Establish The Run
- Walter Cherepinsky - Walter Football
- Ben Standig - The Athletic
With access to sources and proven track records in NFL mock-drafting, these mocks can provide some of the best insight into where teams may be leaning come draft day. Here are some props to bet right now utilizing this data.
New York Giants to Draft Offense First (+110, FoxBet)
The Giants currently own the 11th pick of the first round, and a lot of the latest news and rumors point to them being after DeVonta Smith.
Of course, they may not actually have access to Smith when it is their turn, but that doesn't mean this wager is doomed to fail. Sourcing the top mock experts reveals seven offensive selections between three players: Smith, USC's Alija Vera-Tucker, and Northwestern's Rashawn Slater. Grinding the Mocks has the Giants going offense over 58 percent of the time, which is a far cry from the 47.6% implied probability of this bet.
Jaylen Waddle Draft Position Under 12.5 (-150, FoxBet)
This number opened at 12.5 at some other books before quickly being bet down to 11.5. Now Fox has opened up their own props with that same number. The significance of 12 is high, as it is unlikely Waddle makes it past an Eagles team desperate for some help at receiver. Eight of the 10 top mockers have Waddle inside of the top 12, being selected as high as six to the Dolphins.
Waddle profiles as a better version of Henry Ruggs, who shocked the world by being the first wideout selected in last year's draft. Speed is something that NFL teams have shown to covet year after year, and Waddle has tons of it. He should continue to rise as we approach draft day.
Rashawn Slater Draft Position Under 10.5 (-110, FoxBet)
Oregon's Penei Sewell has long been thought of as the top offensive lineman in this class, but that may not play out on draft day. Schrager has Slater coming off the board before Sewell in his first mock, citing intel that teams may prefer the former. Jeremiah also had Slater as the first offensive lineman in his mock.
Even if he can't beat out Sewell, Slater will have ample opportunity to come off the board prior to the Giants at 11. Both the Bengals and Dolphins are in the market for offensive line help for their young quarterbacks, while Carolina may look to bolster their pass protection to help maximize Sam Darnold. The Broncos pick ninth and could continue to build the line if they are unable to secure one of the top signal-callers. Finally, the Cowboys should have some interest picking 10th given injuries all along their offensive line (and, more importantly, to Dak Prescott) in 2020.
Christian Darrisaw Draft Position Under 17.5 (-118, FoxBet)
This line originally opened at 19.5 but was quickly bet down two spots. It still presents value. Darrisaw is widely considered to be the third-best true tackle in this class after Sewell and Slater. Assuming both Sewell and Slater are top-10 picks, Darrisaw could come off the board as early as 11 to the Giants, but will also have opportunities with the Chargers (13), Vikings (14), and Raiders (17). Eight of the 10 top mockers have Darrisaw inside of the currently posted number.
Total Alabama Players Drafted in Round 1 Over 5.5 (-165, MGM)
Right now there are four absolute locks for the Crimson Tide in the first round: Mac Jones, Patrick Surtain, Smith, and Waddle. All of these players are likely to be selected in the top half of the first round. Then there are four other players from Alabama with a shot to hear their names called on Day 1: Christian Barmore, Najee Harris, Alex Leatherwood, and Landon Dickerson. All of these players find their way into the first round in various mocks, with Barmore being the closest thing to a consensus selection.
Fortunately, only two of these players need to be taken in the first round to cash this bet. With the devaluation of running back in the NFL, Harris may be the longest shot to make it, but there are ample teams in need of offensive line help late in the first round. This line would have to be 6.5 to become a no-bet.
