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Why Tiers?

Most fantasy owners are used to drafting off a simple ranking of players, but that can mask underlying differences that exist between players. For example, two players may be ranked right next to each other on a cheatsheet but there could be a wide gap in the expected production for them. In that case, you would probably want to draft the higher-ranked player a full-round earlier than the lower-ranked player. Similarly, there may be a large group of players with very similar projections that are bunched together on a ranking sheet. It may seem that a player ranked 10^th is much more valuable than a player ranked 15^th, but if only a few projected points separate them then they are roughly equivalent in value. Rather than force yourself to pick one, it may be best to focus on another position and then come back to this position in the next round since you’re likely to get a player of nearly identical value.

Grouping players into distinct tiers or buckets provides additional context that allows a drafter to make more informed decisions. The projections we offer at Footballguys also help a lot in this regard, but those are still static projections that may not fully indicate the range of likely outcomes for a player. For example, two players may be projected with similar numbers but one may have significantly more upside and/or a higher floor than the other. Those types of risk vs reward decisions are inherent in any fantasy draft. While drafting the safe players will typically help you build a solid team, you often need to take some chances and hit on some players who significantly exceed their preseason expectations to win.

Rankings are typically helpful in ordering players within the same position group, but tiers can help you figure out which position to take as you move through a draft. If you see a large group of linebackers that are all capable of putting up LB1-type numbers but only one defensive lineman likely to put up elite numbers, it’s wise to grab the lineman and assume at least one of the linebackers will be there for your next pick. This helps you maximize the value of your picks, and is a strategy that all strong fantasy players likely use to some extent.

How to Use the Tiers

1. These tiers are based on expected performance for the 2019 season in a balanced scoring system. While dynasty owners always need to consider long-term outcomes to some extent, the upcoming season is most critical for player value. I’ll highlight some dynasty stash options in a separate tier that you can focus on if you are less concerned about 2019 and want to focus on 2020 and beyond.
2. Positional classifications can differ depending on what your league-hosting website uses. For consistency, I will rely on the official Footballguys player classifications. For the most part, these should match up well with the major sources that exist online but there could be differences. Assigning edge rushers to linebacker or defensive end is the main area that causes issues here as the classification can have a huge impact on fantasy value.
3. Will add an asterisk (*) for any players that have added value in big-play scoring systems. There is a lot of scoring variability that exists among IDP leagues, so if your league places added value on big plays (i.e., sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles, etc.), this information should help you identify some key targets in each tier.

DEFENSIVE ENDS TIER 1: ELITE OPTIONS

• Danielle Hunter, MIN *
• Myles Garrett, CLE *
• Aaron Donald, LAR *
• Chase Young, WAS *

These are the players that clearly stand out above the rest and are the ones to target in your draft if you want a clear edge at the position. Danielle Hunter wound up missing all of 2020 with a mysterious neck injury but has recovered from surgery and hopes to return to form. Myles Garrett is still just 25 years old and has averaged nearly a sack per game over the prior 3 years. Aaron Donald is just a few years removed from a 20-sack season and remains one of the most dominant pass rushers in the league. Chase Young is the least proven player in this group but was drafted 2^nd overall last year and looks ready to establish himself as one of the best defenders in the league.

DEFENSIVE ENDS TIER 2: VERY GOOD TARGETS

• Haason Reddick, CAR
• Joey Bosa, LAC
• J.J. Watt, ARI
• Brian Burns, CAR *
• Cameron Jordan, NO
• Montez Sweat, WAS *
• Sam Hubbard, CIN

These are the value picks among DE1 options if you are willing to wait and take a player a step below the elite. This group includes some of the best pass rushers in the league, but they carry slightly more risk and therefore come at a discount. Players like J.J. Watt, Joey Bosa and Cameron Jordan have put up elite numbers in the past but were also disappointing in 2020. Haason Reddick will try to replicate his breakout season on a new team alongside the emerging Brian Burns. Montez Sweat is also a talented young pass rusher with upside while Sam Hubbard needs to bounce back from a year that saw him record just 2 sacks in 13 games.

DEFENSIVE ENDS TIER 3: RELIABLE STARTERS

• Carlos Dunlap, SEA
• Demarcus Lawrence, DAL
• Leonard Williams, NYG *
• Romeo Okwara, DET *
• Nick Bosa, SF *
• Cameron Heyward, PIT
• Jadeveon Clowney, CLE
• Josh Allen, JAX
• Trey Flowers, DET
• Emmanuel Ogbah, MIA
• Brandon Graham, PHI
• Maxx Crosby, LV
• Stephon Tuitt, PIT

If you missed out on the first two tiers, you could still put together a pretty solid starting pair of defensive ends from this bunch with most likely to finish among the top-30 at the position. Nearly all of them have the upside to hit 35 solo tackles and 10 sacks if everything goes their way, but that is likely a best-case scenario and most will come up short of that level. There is a nice mix of established veterans and talented young players in this group.

DEFENSIVE ENDS TIER 4: TOP BACKUPS

• Calais Campbell, BAL
• Jeffery Simmons, TEN
• Arik Armstead, SF
• Frank Clark, KC *
• Yannick Ngakoue, LV *
• Akiem Hicks, CHI
• Kerry Hyder Jr SEA
• Trey Hendrickson, CIN *
• Randy Gregory, DAL
• DreMont Jones, DEN

Consider this the DE3 tier, who will mostly make up your backup options in leagues that require 2 starters at the position. This is an interesting mix of pass rush specialists with limited tackle production who will have added value in sack-heavy scoring systems, and interior players who should be more consistent from week to week with limited upside.

DEFENSIVE ENDS TIER 5: QUALITY DEPTH

• Shaq Lawson, NYJ
• Denico Autry, TEN
• Shelby Harris, DEN
• Dante Fowler Jr ATL *
• Derek Barnett, PHI *
• Marcus Davenport, NO *
• Whitney Mercilus, HOU
• Dawuane Smoot, JAX *
• Bryce Huff, NYJ
• Michael Brockers, DET

There isn’t much to get excited about in this group, but these are players who are likely good enough to be on a roster in deeper leagues. Some are former high draft picks who haven’t quite lived up to their potential yet, while others are veterans who have shown flashes yet haven’t been able to string together several good seasons in a row. When injuries and bye weeks start to hit, these are some of the best options to consider as short-term fill-ins since they should see enough playing time from week to week to finish among the top-40.

DEFENSIVE ENDS TIER 6: DYNASTY STASHES

• Gregory Rousseau, BUF
• A.J. Epenesa, BUF
• Yetur Gross-Matos, CAR
• D.J. Wonnum, MIN
• Clelin Ferrell, LV
• Chase Winovich, NE
• Payton Turner, NO
• Josh Sweat, PHI
• Carlos Basham Jr, BUF

This tier is filled mostly with rookies or other young players with untapped potential who may be a year or two away from making a significant contribution.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE TIER 1: ELITE OPTIONS

• DeForest Buckner, IND *
• Quinnen Williams, NYJ
• Chris Jones, KC *

In most years, there isn’t enough separation at this position to justify paying a premium for one of the top players off the board. That may be the case again this year but DeForest Buckner could arguably considered in a tier of his own and is worth consideration as a top-5 defensive lineman. Quinnen Williams broke out last year with 7 sacks and should take another step on an improving Jets team. Chris Jones posted 15 sacks in 2018 but has been trending the wrong way with 16.5 sacks over the past two years combined.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE TIER 2: HIGH-END STARTERS

• Jonathan Allen, WAS
• Grady Jarrett, ATL *
• Sheldon Richardson, MIN
• Kenny Clark, GB
• Fletcher Cox, PHI *

While these players are a cut below the elite tier, they are still high-end starters at the position and likely to finish right around the top-5. Jonathan Allen is one of the leading tacklers at the position but needs to bounce back from a year that saw him post just 2 sacks. The rest of this group consistently ranks among the most productive players at the position and have a high floor but capped upside.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE TIER 3: QUALITY STARTERS

• Dexter Lawrence, NYG
• Christian Wilkins, MIA
• Larry Ogunjobi, CIN
• Ndamukong Suh, TB *
• DaRon Payne, WAS
• Ed Oliver, BUF *
• Jarran Reed, KC *

This is a group that carries more risk than the others but still has a chance to produce as a #1 defensive tackle this year. Most have limited upside as pass rushers but figure to see a heavy workload and post above-average tackle numbers at the position to give you a solid baseline.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE TIER 4: TOP BACKUPS

• Javon Kinlaw, SF
• Kwity Paye, IND *
• Lawrence Guy, NE
• Derrick Brown, CAR
• Malik Jackson, CLE
• Linval Joseph, LAC
• Dalvin Tomlinson, MIN
• Matthew Ioannidis, WAS *
• Grover Stewart, IND

As usual, the top backups are a mixture of proven veterans whose careers may be winding down along with some young players that could climb the ranks.