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Sunday Morning Update

Check back each Sunday Morning around 11:45 EST for any updates based on the actives/inactives and Sunday news. Note, we will always put something on here even if it is as simple as “no update”.

There will likely only be one update this morning. However, I do post on Twitter every time there is an update as well as answer questions/interact with subscribers so if you aren't following, give it a shot.

https://twitter.com/devinknottsfbg

Ok shameless plug over...

Update #1 9:03 AM EST

This Sunday morning is going to be completely different from anything we've ever done before.

Adam Schefter Tweeted about Aaron Jones, "Packers’ RB Aaron Jones, listed as questionable due to a knee injury, wants to play vs. the Rams but Green Bay also has a bye next week and can get two weeks of rest for him if he doesn’t play Sunday, per source. Packers not expected to make final decision until pre-game warmups."

For those of you who know about the Packers, they are historically extremely conservative with injuries, so it seems like with the combination of Schefter's wording as well as the history that Aaron Jones will miss this game.

However... we have to be prepared for anything within DFS. So, this week, we are going to give you a primary lineup with A.J. Dillon in the lineup. We will also be giving a secondary lineup that you need to check starting at 2:30PM EST if Jones is active. If Jones is active we PIVOT to that secondary lineup. It is essentially a planned contingency instead of trying to scramble.

Primary Lineup if Aaron Jones is Inactive

While paying up for Kupp is not ideal here, as I would rather spend the $9,500 on Christian McCaffrey this week, the problem is that both Jonathan Taylor and McCaffrey have 1PM start times which locks too much salary into the lineup if Aaron Jones plays this week. So, in order to build a lineup that is flexible to easily pivot away from Dillon if need be, I had to sacrifice. Kupp is a very strong play this week as he has caught 11 passes in each of his last two games. The only drawback of Kupp is that his touchdowns have come back to earth as he has not scored over the last two weeks.

• QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF, $6,500
• RB Joe Mixon, CIN, $8,000
• RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $6,100
• WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,500
• WR Chris Godwin, TB, $7,600
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $7,000
• TE Dan Arnold, JAC, $5,100
• Flex RB A.J. Dillon, GB, $6,900
• TD Cincinnati, $3,300

Contingency Late Swap Lineup if Aaron Jones is Active

I'm normally not a big believer in Player Props from sportsbooks translating to DFS, but this week the one that stood out was Austin Ekeler's touchdown prop being the second-highest on the board. This is largely in line with what Footballguys is seeing as Ekeler is projected to score more points than Dalvin Cook this week. While I don't love not having Cook, this is where I have to let pre-conceived biases fade away as a lot of smart people are saying to play Ekeler over Cook.

• QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF, $6,500
• RB Joe Mixon, CIN, $8,000
• RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $6,100
• WR Deebo Samuel, SF, $8,000
• WR Chris Godwin, TB, $7,600
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $7,000
• TE Dan Arnold, JAC, $5,100
• Flex RB Austin Ekeler, LAC $8,400
• TD Cincinnati, $3,300

Update #2 11:30EST

I found a more comfortable way to build the lineup this week. In an ideal world I'd find an extra $100 and everything would be perfect (I could guarantee myself being able to play Austin Ekeler in both lineups), but every combination has come up $100 short.

Primary Lineup if Aaron Jones is Inactive

• QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF, $6,500
• RB Joe Mixon, CIN, $8,000
• RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $6,100
• WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $8,100
• WR Chris Godwin, TB, $7,600
• WR Deebo Samuel, SF, $8,000
• TE Dan Arnold, JAC, $5,100
• Flex RB A.J. Dillon, GB, $6,900
• TD Cincinnati, $3,300

Contingency Late Swap Lineup if Aaron Jones is Active

• QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF, $6,500
• RB Joe Mixon, CIN, $8,000
• RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $6,100
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $7,000
• WR Chris Godwin, TB, $7,600
• WR Deebo Samuel, SF, $8,000
• TE Dan Arnold, JAC, $5,100
• Flex RB Austin Ekeler, LAC, $8,400
• TD Cincinnati, $3,300

Thanksgiving Apologies-

Hi everyone, let me put it simply here, I dropped the ball on the Thanksgiving slate. The Thursday Morning update, didn’t come out until after the first game had started, and while it ended up being a winning lineup, this was not acceptable so please accept my apologies.

We have built a community around this article, so let me give some context here. I finished the article the night before Thanksgiving, and then we drove overnight 7.5 hours to a very rural family property in Southeastern Ohio. By the time we got there around 8AM, the internet connection was much worse than it had been in years past and with no sleep I said I was going to “lay down” for 20 minutes then figure out the internet situation. Waking up four hours later, the rest is history.

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

Low scoring week, only three teams make the cutoff of situations that standout this week.

• Tampa Bay (at Indianapolis) 27 points
• San Francisco (vs Minnesota) 25.75 points
• New England (vs Tennessee) 25 points

Week 11 Recap

Week 11 was another positive week, and we are on pace for a very good season with the primary cash lineup. Last week was a very low scoring week, but the primary cash lineup put up 121 points which was good enough for top 15% of cash game lineups last week.

What went right:

• Taking James Conner at around 10% rostered was the key last week. Conner had 99 yards and a touchdown on his way to 18.4 points which made a significant difference compared to
• Paying up for Deebo Samuel at 20% rostered also helped significantly as surprisingly Deebo led the team in rushing yards as he ran for 79 yards and a touchdown.
• Davante Adams at 50% rostered was huge as we finally got the breakout game from Adams that we had seemingly been waiting on for most of the season. Adams had 115 yards and 2 touchdowns in the highest scoring game of the week in Green Bay/Minnesota.

What went wrong:

• Patrick Mahomes II continued to struggle. The good news is that he was 60% rostered, but to get just 8 points out of your quarterback is always going to make for a difficult day. The Cowboys/Chiefs game was a low scoring ugly game that after watching the Raiders put up 34 points on Thanksgiving against this same Cowboys team, it is going to be difficult to be convinced to go back to Mahomes any time soon.

INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?

A significant amount of injuries this week, which will make the Sunday Morning Update critical.

• Aaron Jones is questionable with a knee injury in what is the most critical injury on this slate. Initially trending towards being out, it looks like there is some optimism for Jones this week. Something to keep an eye on as this one drastically changes the slate if he’s out as A.J. Dillon becomes the top overall player on this slate.
• A.J. Brown will miss this week with a chest injury. The options for Tennessee are quite bleak as they lost Marcus Johnson to a season-ending injury last week. Dez Fitzpatrick will likely be the number one receiver alongside Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. This could be a bit of a disaster week for the Titans taking on a tough Patriots defense.
• Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard are out for the Giants, while Saquon Barkley and John Ross are questionable this week. Something to monitor as Darius Slayton could become a value play this week.
• Cordarrelle Patterson is questionable this week with an ankle injury. Qadree Ollison who led the Falcons in carries last week is also out with illness. If Patterson is unable to go, Mike Davis could provide some value this week at just $5,900 in a favorable matchup against the Eagles who are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs this season.
• Michael Carter is out for the Jets this week with an ankle injury. Tevin Coleman should see an increase in workload this week against the Texans but is not an overly exciting option this week except for GPP’s.

Where to save money?

This is a very difficult week, as there are 6 players who are 8700 or higher compared to last week where there were just three players.

Quarterbacks Under $8k

Jimmy Garoppolo- $6,500

Most of the season, we have been paying up for quarterbacks on FanDuel and it’s led to a pretty good season thus far. However, this may be a week where we just have to go low at quarterback. Outside of Tom Brady, there is not a quarterback that we feel great about starting this week. The key here is hoping that none of the top end players have a monster day, while Garoppolo just be adequate which the sportsbooks have the 49ers as the second highest projected team total. Garoppolo has thrown for two or more touchdowns in each of his last three games which at $6,500 is really all we need from him here.

Joe Burrow- $7,100

Burrow is on a bit of a 2 game skid as he has thrown for just one touchdown over the last two games while averaging just 215 passing yards. Last week’s stats were a little skewed by game script as the Bengals won 32-13 in a run-heavy outing running the ball 38 times. In the five games prior to the two game skid, Burrow was on fire throwing for 315 yards per game and 2.6 touchdowns per game. Burrow was highly efficient earlier this season against the Steelers completing 77% of his passes and throwing for three touchdowns.

Running Back Under 7k

A.J. Dillon- $6,900- If Jones is out

Dillon is the consensus top play here if Aaron Jones is out. The problem is we likely won’t know that until Sunday morning for sure and may not know that until 90 minutes before game time which is worst case scenario as it is a 4:25PM EST game.

Myles Gaskin- $6,100

This one just seems tough to swallow, but he is going to be popular this week at just $6,100. Gaskin was in a premier spot last week as the Jets allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this season and scored 17 fantasy points. This week, Gaskin has to face a Carolina defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Prior to last week, Gaskin was averaging 2.2 yards-per-carry over his last three games, had just one touchdown in those three games, and did not have more than 23 yards receiving in those three games. You can play him simply because the options are abysmal, but don’t expect much out of the Dolphins running back.

Miles Sanders- $6,100

Miles Sanders returned last week after missing nearly a month and looked fantastic against the best run defense in the NFL in New Orleans. Sanders had 94 yards on 16 carries, and with Jordan Howard being out, should continue to see the bulk of the action in Philadelphia. If Sanders can get 15 or more carries, he should be in a really good spot this week as he is facing a Giants defense that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Sanders should be a nice cheap value option on a week where there are not many.

Dontrell Hilliard- $5,500

The Titans essentially have nothing to work with this week as they are going to be without Jeremy McNichols, they waived Adrian Peterson, they’re without A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, needless to say this team is an absolute mess. One bright spot this week could be Dontrell Hilliard who looked great as a receiver last week catching 8 passes while running the ball 7 times as well. Hilliard last week saw 63% of the snaps and with Peterson no longer in Tennessee, expect that number to rise. The matchup is a difficult one against New England, but at just $5,500, Hilliard is a solid option this week to provide cost savings.

Wide Receiver Under $6k

Laviska Shenault- $5,600

At just $5,600, Shenault is interesting simply because of speculation. Earlier this week, Urban Meyer came out and stated that Shenault could see some time at the running back position this week. The Falcons have struggled against pass receiving running backs allowing 9 or more receptions to the position in two of the last three games. Shenault is a low upside player but could get enough volume to justify in cash this week.

Tight End Under $6,000

Dan Arnold- $5,100

Dan Arnold had zero targets last week and Urban Meyer came out and stated that the Jaguars need to do a better job of getting him the ball even if the defense is taking him away. At just $5,100, Arnold had three consecutive games of 60 or more yards. The Falcons have struggled against above average tight ends allowing a touchdown to Rob Gronkowski (2), Dallas Goedert, and Mike Gesicki. Arnold should be in a really good spot this week in what should be a sneaky shootout this week.

Dallas Goedert- $5,900

Expect Dallas Goedert to get some love this week as there is a continued expectation that a breakout game for Goedert is coming. Goedert has 6 or more targets in three of his last four games and is taking on a Giants team that are in the middle of the pack in defending the tight end. The only problem with Goedert is that the has not scored a touchdown since Week 4 and has just two on the season. He is very similar to Dan Arnold, the only difference is that Arnold’s bad game in three of his last four came last week while Goedert’s came two weeks ago. People have a short sided memory, so Arnold may be the better play here this week.

Cash Game Core

Chris Godwin- $7,600

On a slate where players are seemingly price 10-20% higher than normal, Chris Godwin comes in as a great play this week at just $7,600. Godwin has established himself as the number one receiver in Tampa Bay over the last several weeks as over his last four games, he is averaging 93 yards, with three touchdowns in those games. The way to beat Indianapolis is through the air as they are allowing the 5^th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers while allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Justin Jefferson- $8,100

This week is all about a balanced lineup. I’m completely avoiding the top end of Kupp, Adams, Taylor, Harris, McCaffrey as they’re either overpriced or in a tough matchup. Justin Jefferson at $8,100 is re-emerging as a top end receiver as over his last two weeks Jefferson is averaging 8.5 receptions for 156 yards and has scored two touchdowns over those two games. These were difficult matchups against the Chargers and Packers. The Vikings have been lining up Jefferson all over the field including in the backfield to try to create mismatches with defenders. This is a week where Jefferson has as much upside as any of the receivers that are $9,000 or more.

Joe Mixon- $8,000

The Steelers’ run defense has falling on hard times over the last two weeks as they’re allowing 177 yards per game and have allowed 6 touchdowns in those two games. Joe Mixon has been incredibly consistent at scoring touchdowns as he has scored a touchdown in seven straight games and is coming off of a 30-carry performance which is a great sign considering he has been dealing with injuries for most of the season.

LINEUPS-

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH Assuming Aaron Jones is Playing- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 123.9)

• QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF, $6,500
• RB Joe Mixon, CIN, $8,000
• RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $6,100
• WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $8,100
• WR Chris Godwin, TB, $7,600
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $7,000
• TE Dan Arnold, JAC, $5,100
• Flex RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $8,100
• TD Cincinnati, $3,300

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – FBG Optimal Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 130.1)

• QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $8,400
• RB Dontrell Hilliard, TEN, $5,500
• RB Myles Gaskin, MIA, $6,200
• WR Diontae Johnson, PIT, $7,100
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $7,000
• WR Deebo Samuel, SF, $8,000
• TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, $5,900
• Flex RB Austin Ekeler, LAC, $8,400
• TD Cincinnati, $3,300

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – Tampa Bay/Indianapolis Stack- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 125.6)

• QB Tom Brady, TB, $8,200
• RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $6,100
• RB Myles Gaskin, MIA, $6,200
• WR Michael Pittman, IND, $6,600
• WR Chris Godwin, TB, $7,600
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $7,000
• TE Dan Arnold, JAC, $5,100
• Flex RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, $9,800
• TD Cincinnati, $3,300

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