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Sunday Morning Update

Check back in around 11:30 EST each Sunday Morning as inactives are announced to see if there is any change to the primary lineup.

With Jamaal Williams out, DAndre Swift shoots up the board in terms of priority. He becomes the #1 player overall for me this week.

• QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,800
• RB DAndre Swift, DET, $7,900
• RB Eli Mitchell, SF, $5,800
• WR Chris Godwin, TB, $7,200
• WR Stefon Diggs, BUF, $7,300
• WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $6,300
• TE Ricky Seals-Jones, WAS, $5,400
• Flex RB Darrell Henderson, LAR, $7,700
• TD Washington, $3,400

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Buffalo (vs Miami) 31.75 points
• LA Rams (at Houston) 31 points
• Tampa Bay (at New Orleans) 27.25 points
• LA Chargers (vs New England) 26.75 points
• Cincinnati (at NY Jets) 26.5 points

Week 7 Recap

Week 7 was a tough week for the primary lineup. It sort of was a calamity of errors as Patrick Mahomes II had his worst performance of his NFL career against a bad Titans defense. The “Optimal lineup” (Lineup #2) was better last week as it had Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Kyle Pitts, and Tampa Bay defense all of which had massive days.

What went right:

• Chris Godwin was a bright spot for the lineup as with no Antonio Brown the Buccaneers relied heavily on both Godwin and Evans to dominate a good Bears defense last week.
• The Giants defense were a bright spot just dominating the Panthers in every fashion of the game this week.

What went wrong:

• Miles Sanders was off to an outstanding start as he had 6 carries for 30 yards on the first two drives of the game until he broke his ankle.
• Darrell Henderson was a miss by nearly everyone. In a favorable matchup against the Lions, he never really got going as he averaged just 3.0 yards-per-carry. The game script certainly didn’t help as the Rams were expected to have this game in hand and it ended up being the exact opposite as the Lions controlled the ball for nearly the entire first quarter.

INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?

Not a lot of injuries this week.

TY Hilton is out this week which once again should elevate Michael Pittman to the top wide receiver in Indianapolis. The problem for Pittman this week is that the price on FanDuel is not good enough as you aren’t getting enough of a discount as you otherwise should be compared to other sites.

Antonio Brown will once again miss this week with an ankle injury. Both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are excellent plays this week. Godwin feels a little bit safer compared to Evans who has more upside due to scoring five touchdowns over his last two games.

Austin Ekeler is questionable this week with a hip injury. If he’s unable to go, there is not a direct replacement as Joshua Kelley, Larry Rountree, and Justin Jackson could all see some time in this game. This is likely a complete avoid situation and you could give an upgrade to the receivers for the Chargers.

Cooper Kupp?

The biggest question you have to ask yourself as you are approaching this slate is what you want to do with Cooper Kupp. He is likely going to be the most important player to either start or to fade as you can expect ~50% of the field to take him. Kupp has been unbelievable thus far this season as he has nine touchdowns through his first seven games and is on pace to break Calvin Johnson’s receiving record. However, the counter argument this week is that Kupp is facing a Houston team that is one of the worst teams in football which could limit the amount of passing that the Rams do this week.

Recommendation: While Kupp may not fall on the true optimal lineups, he’s been so dominant that he gives a floor to your lineup that you likely are going to want to have this week. Nothing in this sport is ever a guarantee, but it seems more than 50% likely that Kupp will have another great game.

Where to save money?

On a week where there are so many elite offenses on bye weeks, the amount of options that we can save money with are somewhat limited. The key this week is not overthinking some of the obvious plays. Let’s get back to the basics a little bit and take some of the chalkier plays this week knowing that there is difficult pricing and it can influence people’s decisions to get a little more creative with their lineups.

Quarterback Under 8k:

None-

Trevor Lawrence- $6,900

You’re probably going to want to play Josh Allen this week, but if for whatever reason you decided to go with a cheaper quarterback, you could strongly consider Trevor Lawrence here. Lawrence looked great in his prior two games as he had 319 yards and a touchdown against Miami, and 273 with a touchdown against Tennessee. The problem is whether he has the upside to compete with a Josh Allen or other top-end quarterbacks

Running Back Under 7k:

Chuba Hubbard- $6,600

Chuba Hubbard struggled last week as did the entire Panthers offense as he ran for just 28 yards, but was still involved in the passing game as he caught four passes for the Giants. Atlanta has allowed seven touchdowns in six games to opposing running backs and are allowing 129 total yards per game to the position. This is still Hubbard’s offense at least for another week until McCaffrey’s return so expect a much better performance at a reduced price.

Eli Mitchell- $5,800

At just $5,800, Eli Mitchell should be a cash game staple for a lot of people this week. While the matchup is a difficult one, Mitchell has topped 100 yards in two of his four games this season including a somewhat difficult game last week against Indianapolis. The big thing for Mitchell is the volume, as he has 17 or more carries in three of his four games with the only game being a game script reduced volume as the 49ers were trailing for a vast majority of the game against Arizona.

Kenneth Gainwell- $5,900

Gainwell is a bit of a dilemma this week, as if he gets the full set of carries for this offense, he is going to be a top play this week at $5,900. The problem is that with Miles Sanders being out, how that offense is going to look like as they could incorporate Boston Scott into this offense to take carries away from Gainwell this week. A lot of Gainwell’s value comes as a receiving back, which is not as critical for FanDuel as it is for full PPR sites. The matchup is undeniably a good one taking on Detroit who are allowing the 5^th-most fantasy points to the running back position this season.

Wide Receiver Under 6k

Jakobi Meyers- $5,700

The fantasy community is not able to quit Jakobi Meyers this season. On a normal week where there are many options under $6k, this is not one of those weeks as Meyers is the only play that you can trust enough to have a consistent enough role at sub-$6k. At some point for Meyers, his first NFL touchdown will come soon as it is brought up in every Patriots post-game interview, and if it comes you’re going to want to have Meyers with how popular he continues to be.

Tight End Under 6k

Dallas Goedert- $5,900

Dallas Goedert is going to be popular once again as the Eagles take on the Lions. While Goedert is expected to have a more significant role since the departure of Zach Ertz, it really hasn’t materialized just yet this season. Goedert had just five targets last week in a game in which the Eagles threw the ball 34 times. Goedert does not have a game this season in which he has more than 5 targets. There is a lot of upside for Goedert to eventually have an increased role without Ertz it just hasn’t happened thus far.

Ricky Seals-Jones- $5,400

Ricky Seals-Jones is the definition of a punt play as he’s a guy that is going to have a consistent role in this offense, but does not have the extreme upside of a 100+ 2 touchdown game. He’s going to get somewhere between 40-60 yards as he has done in each of his last three games, with a chance to find the end-zone.

Jared Cook- $5,200

If you’re looking for a player who has more upside than Ricky Seals-Jones, but probably a lower floor, Jared Cook is your guy this week. In two of his last three games, Cook has seven targets with a touchdown, but the floor is real as we saw against the Browns where he caught just one pass for 29 yards. If there is one drawback it is that Donald Parham has shown an ability in the Red Zone to take away touchdowns from Cook.

Defenses Under 4k

Washington Football Team- $3,400

Teddy Bridgewater over the last three games has gone from a game manager to a turnover machine as he has thrown five interceptions over the last three games. Pressure has been the key as he has also taken nine sacks in that time. Washington’s defense has its flaws, most notably the pass defense which has been abysmal this season as they’ve allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. However, this is still a defensive line that is incredibly talented with Da’Ron Payne, Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat and Chase Young that at just $3,400 looks to be a solid play.

KEY CASH CORE

Stefon Diggs- $7,300

Stefon Diggs is due for some positive touchdown regression at this point for the Buffalo Bills. On the season, Diggs has 12 red zone targets and just 2 touchdowns, compare that to someone like Cooper Kupp who has 15 targets and 8 touchdowns. Diggs is coming off of one of his best games of the year as he dominated Tennessee prior to the bye week with 9 receptions 89 yards and a touchdown. Diggs will draw a somewhat difficult matchup in Xavien Howard. Diggs has had success in prior meetings as he has scored a touchdown in two of their last three meetings, and last season had tremendous success against Miami as he had 8 receptions for 153 yards and a touchdown in their first meeting, and 7 receptions for 76 yards in their second meeting which the starters only played half the game due to it being Week 17.

Darrell Henderson- $7,700

This is a process over results play. Last week was an awful performance from Henderson as he had just 45 yards rushing in a weird game script against Detroit in which Detroit held the ball for much of the first quarter due to lengthy drives and an onside kick. There’s still a lot to like about Henderson this week, as once again he is in a favorable matchup against Houston and the Rams are projected to be the highest scoring offense this week.

Josh Allen- $8,800

Josh Allen got off to somewhat of a rough start at the beginning of the season, but over the last several weeks he is starting to look like the MVP contender that he was last season. Over his last four games, Allen is averaging 319 passing yards and 3 touchdowns per game adding 2 rushing touchdowns over those 4 games. While he’s expensive at $8,800, it is just difficult to find another player who has the floor as high as what Allen does. This feeds into the concept of not overthinking this week.

LINEUPS-

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 128.6)

• QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,800
• RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $6,600
• RB Eli Mitchell, SF, $5,800
• WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,200
• WR Stefon Diggs, BUF, $7,300
• WR Jakobi Meyers, NE, $5,700
• TE Ricky Seals-Jones, WAS, $5,400
• Flex RB Darrell Henderson, LAR, $7,700
• TD Washington, $3,400

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – No Cooper Kupp (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 128.5)

• QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,800
• RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, $8,500
• RB Eli Mitchell, SF, $5,800
• WR Brandin Cooks, HOU, $6,000
• WR Stefon Diggs, BUF, $7,300
• WR Chris Godwin, TB, $7,200
• TE Tyler Higbee, LAR, $5,300
• Flex RB Darrell Henderson, LAR, $7,700
• TD Washington, $3,400

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – Small GPP- NO/TB Stack (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 127.3)

• QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,800
• RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,400
• RB Eli Mitchell, SF, $5,800
• WR Chris Godwin, NO, $7,200
• WR Stefon Diggs, BUF, $7,300
• WR Brandin Cooks, HOU, $6,000
• TE Noah Fant, DEN, $5,800
• Flex RB Darrell Henderson, LAR, $7,700
• TD Washington, $3,400

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