Photo: Imagn Images

Sunday Morning Update

10:40 AM EST:

No real update here this morning, we'll be back around 11:40 EST if there is more news that breaks. Keeping the Primary Cash Lineup as is for now.

Situations we've been monitoring:

• Terry McLaurin will be active this week. Washington has been one of the more conservative teams in the NFL in terms of injuries. He should be fine this week and is a good cash game play.
• Mike Williams appears as if he is going to go after trending somewhat doubtful earlier in the week. Williams will be far less than 100% healthy, but it does hurt Keenan Allen this week.
• Cleveland and Arizona weather seems to be a problem spot as it has been trending that way all week. There will be winds between 20-30MPH and the total has dropped 4.5 points. This should not impact Kareem Hunt at all, and in fact could help him in the passing game as long throws will likely be difficult.

Let me know your thoughts on the article knotts@footballguys.com or via Twitter

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Kansas City (at Washington) 31.25 points
• LA Rams (at NY Giants) 29 points
• Dallas (at New England) 27.25 points
• Cleveland at Arizona 26.5 points
• Indianapolis (vs Houston) 26 points

Week 5 Recap

After a tough Week 4, we are back in the winning category in Week 5. The primary lineup put up 147.38 points. The lineup was by no means a perfect one, but we hit the two key pieces that were needed in order to cash this week.

What went right:

• Davante Adams was essentially the player you had to have or it was going to be almost impossible to cash as he was 70-80% rostered in cash contests and ended up with 32.1 points.
• The Derrick Henry decision ended up being the correct one. It was one that we went back and forth on all week. Henry was 43% rostered and put up 31 FanDuel points. He was the key piece to cashing or not.

What went wrong:

• Honestly most of this lineup went wrong outside of the plays of Henry, Adams, Mattison, Damien Williams.
• Trey Lance struggled for most of the day, and did not kill the lineup at 15.58 considering the other popular play was Kyler Murray who struggled, but Lance was tackled at the one foot line that would have changed his day if he was able to run into the end zone.
• Jakobi Meyers and Keenan Allen were just ok last week. Getting 18.2 FanDuel points is tough as neither scored a touchdown. Overall they were not terrible as they had a combined 131 yards, but touchdowns are so critical on FanDuel.

CASH GAME TIP WEEK 6- Be Extremely Careful This Week

This is the type of week that happens 1-2 times per year in which the edge is essentially non-existent. What you will find as you are building your lineups is that it is extremely easy to build out a roster that you are in love with due to all of the value that we will talk about in a minute. However, as easy as it is for you to build out a lineup, it is just as easy for your opponents. Expect roster builds to be extremely similar this week, which greatly lowers the edge that you can have over your opponents. If you have 4-5 players that nearly everyone is going to have in their lineup, then the contest realistically turns into a 4 v 4 with one of those being an extremely unpredictable position in defense.

INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?

This is a week where the Sunday Morning Update is going to be critical.

Nick Chubb will miss this week with a calf injury. This makes Kareem Hunt the top overall running back on the board this week.

Both David Montgomery and Damien Williams for the Bears are out this week which means rookie Khalil Herbert will get the start. Herbert is a back who is not going to catch a lot of passes, but is more than capable as a running back as evidenced by his 75 yard outing last week on 18 carries. He will be extremely popular based on his price this week at just $5,500.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out this week with a knee injury. This will put Darrell Williams in line for the starting position for the Chiefs.

Saquon Barkley will miss this week with an ankle injury. Devonta Booker will get the start for the Giants. The problem is that Booker just is not that great of a running back as evidenced by his 42 yards on 16 carries last week. What Booker does provide is a versatile running back who showed

Christian McCaffrey will miss this week once again with a hamstring injury. This will propel Chuba Hubbard back into the starting position for one more week. Chuba hbad an outstanding week last week as he touched the ball 29 times for 134 yards. The problem for Chuba is that he still doesn’t have a touchdown on the season as Sam Darnold has scored four rushing touchdowns during that timeframe. At $6,900 in a decent matchup against Minnesota, Hubbard is intriguing, but may just be a little too expensive this week.

A number of wide receivers are questionable heading into this week, keep an eye on the Sunday Morning update for any impactful news here:

Mike Williams did not practice this week

Terry McLaurin was downgraded on Friday which puts his game into doubt and certainly will be less than 100%

Sammy Watkins is out, Rashod Bateman will get the start

Darius Slayton looks like he will make a return this week which limits Kadarius Toney’s upside after a great Week 5 for Toney.

DeAndre Hopkins is questionable, but looks like he will be able to play after he did not participate on Thursday.

Jarvis Landry looks like he might make a return this week from IR.

Where to Spend at Running Back?

At the running back position this week, there really are a number of good plays that on a normal week we would be excited about. However, this week, it is all about the value as there are a number of guys who are on the low-end that are mathematically pop out when looking at overall value in lineup construction.

Best Plays:

Khalil Herbert- $5,500

In partial duty, Khalil Herbert saw 18 carries last week as the Bears ran the ball a staggering 37 times last week against Las Vegas. With the injury to Damien Williams, as well as a different game script facing Green Bay, we can’t expect them to run the ball that much this week, but they are still going to go in with a game plan to keep the ball on the ground to open up the passing game for Fields and ultimately keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’ hands. The Bears have very few options at the running back position this week as the only other healthy running back that they have this week is Ryan Nall who was signed off the practice squad this week. Herbert is not going to do much out of the backfield as he only had 10 receptions his final year at Virginia Tech, but he should do enough on the ground to pay off the $5,500 salary.

Kareem Hunt- $7,400

With no Nick Chubb this one is an obvious play this week. Hunt will likely be the highest rostered player of the season on FanDuel cash games which will likely be somewhere in the 80-90% rostered. The matchup could not be better as he is taking on an Arizona team that is the second-worst run defense in football allowing 5.4 yards-per-carry and 139 yards per game. This has the makings of a huge game for Hunt this week.

Contenders:

Darrell Williams- $5,200

With no Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrell Williams will see the bulk of the carries this week for the Chiefs. Williams isn’t overly exciting other than he will play a role in both the passing game and rushing attack this week as he has caught 2 or more passes in each of the last three games and with no Edwards-Helaire has upside to catch 4-5 this week. Offensive Coordinator Eric Bieniemy spoke highly of Williams intelligence and football IQ which should also bode well for him to stay on the field this week over guys such as Jerick McKinnon who is new to the organization and the team is going to want to play someone they trust this week against the defensive line of the Football Team.

Darrell Henderson- $7,300

There’s a lot to like this week with Darrell Henderson. First and foremost, the price is a good one at just $7,300 and he’s coming off of two straight 80+ yard performances. The other thing that is looking promising for Henderson is that the Giants are allowing the third-most rushing yards to running backs this season at 124 yards per game and are allowing 26 FanDuel points. In a game that the Rams are 8 point favorites, Henderson should be in a fantastic spot this week to once again see 15-18 carries 80-100 yards and a touchdown.

Austin Ekeler- $8,400

What Austin Ekeler is doing is simply amazing as he has now scored five touchdowns in his last two games. The question you have to ask is whether this is sustainable, because at his price, he needs to have two touchdown upside. Prior to the last two games, Ekeler had not had a two touchdown game in his last 20 games. The matchup is a good one as Jonathan Taylor dominated this Baltimore defense totaling 169 yards and two touchdowns. The price is just a little too high this week to fully trust in cash.

Decision:

Going with Darrell Henderson, Khalil Herbert, and Kareem Hunt.

I suspect Darrell Williams will be extremely popular, but the floor of Henderson is too good to pass up this week. The savings would allow going up to a Tyreek Hill at wide receiver or even potentially going with a Travis Kelce at tight end, but there are so many good mid-tier options, that it is not necessary this week.

KEY CASH CORE

Lamar Jackson- $8,200

The big debate this week is whether to go with Patrick Mahomes II or Lamar Jackson. On DraftKings, the answer for me this week is Mahomes, but on FanDuel because there is no 300-yard passing bonus, Jackson wins out. It’s completely unreasonable to expect anywhere close to last week’s 41.88 FanDuel point performance, but Jackson continues to have some of the highest upside on any slate due to his unique ability to throw for 400 yards as evidenced by last week as well as run for 100+ yards and scoring touchdowns both ways. This is expected to be a high scoring game against the Chargers, who have significant linebacker issues this season which could open up plenty of rushing opportunities for Jackson.

Davante Adams- $8,400

Expect Davante Adams to be highly rostered this week at $8,400. Coming off of an 11 catch 206 yard performance, Adams continues to be the top wide receiver in the NFL. So far this year, Adams has three 100 yard performances, and although the touchdowns are low compared to 2020, these numbers should continue to go up throughout the season. Adams last season saw a 37% market share in the Red Zone, while this year he is only at 25%. In an easy week with a lot of value running backs, cancelling your opponents with Adams is probably the way to go as he can single handedly cause you to lose your week if you don’t play him.

Michael Pittman- $5,800

Michael Pittman is simply underpriced in this matchup compared to his recent production. We talk about this a lot in this article which is players on Monday night who have a big game often are underpriced due to the slates being released prior to the Monday Night results being taken into consideration. Pittman proved once again that he is the top receiver in Indianapolis as he now has four straight games of six or more receptions and is averaging 85 yards per game in that time frame. This week against the Texans, Pittman should be in a very favorable matchup in a game in which they are 10 point favorites against the Texans.

LINEUPS-

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 134.7)

Check the health of Terry McLaurin on Sunday in case he were to somehow scratch.

• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,200
• RB Khalil Herbert, CHI, $5,500
• RB Darrell Henderson, $7,300
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $8,500
• WR Terry McLaurin, WAS, $7,400
• WR Michael Pittman, IND, $5,800
• TE Mark Andrews, BAL, $6,300
• Flex RB Kareem Hunt, CLE, $7,400
• TD Cleveland, $3,600

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Secondary Cash Stars and Scrubs (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 134.9)

• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,200
• RB Khalil Herbert, CHI, $5,500
• RB Darrell Williams, KC, $5,200
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $8,500
• WR Tyreek Hill, KC, $8,700
• WR Michael Pittman, IND, $5,800
• TE Mark Andrews, BAL, $6,300
• Flex RB Kareem Hunt, CLE, $7,400
• TD Dallas, $4,100

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – Baltimore/Chargers Stack (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 127.9)

The Chiefs/Washington game will likely be the most popular stack, and it is a good stack, but this is a good secondary stack that will allow you to deviate from the field.

• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $7,400
• RB Khalil Herbert, CHI, $5,500
• RB Darrell Williams, KC, $5,200
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $8,500
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $7,100
• WR Cooper Kupp, $8,200
• TE Mark Andrews, BAL, $6,300
• Flex RB Kareem Hunt, CLE, $7,400
• TD Cleveland Browns

PLAYER POOL

Projected points are static as of Saturday morning and will not be updated throughout the weekend. Green means great cash game play, yellow means should be in consideration in cash game lineups.