Favorite Games
- Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 49.5
- Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders - Over/Under 50
Favorite Additional Spots
- Buccaneers on the road against the Falcons - Implied Team Total 30.5
- Rams at home vs. the Jaguars - Implied Team Total 30.25
- Colts at home vs. the Texans - Implied Team Total 27
- Vikings on the road against the Lions - Implied Team Total 27
- Cardinals on the road against the Bears - Implied Team Total 25.25
- 49ers on the road against the Seahawks - Implied Team Total 24.25
- Eagles on the road against the Jets - Implied Team Total 25.75
- Ravens on the road against the Steelers - Implied Team Total 24.25
- Dolphins at home vs. the Giants - Implied Team Total 22.75
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
| 1 | Matthew Stafford | vs. Jaguars | $7,300 |
| 2 | Jimmy Garoppolo | at Seahawks | $5,700 |
| 3 | Derek Carr | vs. Washington | $6,000 |
| 4 | Taylor Heinicke | at Raiders | $5,600 |
Even in a loss, Matthew Stafford got back on track last week throwing for 302 yards and three touchdowns. Stafford ranks second in pass touchdowns per game (2.5) and third in pass yards per game (301.5). He plays at home against a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and dead last in pass DVOA.
In a shocking twist, Deebo Samuel's absence might actually end up being a slight positive for Jimmy Garoppolo's fantasy value. Samuel only posted two catches for 27 receiving yards on six total targets over the past two games. Over that same stretch, Samuel carried the ball 14 times for 145 rush yards and three rush touchdowns. Samuel has always been a hybrid receiver and rusher but Kyle Shanahan had recently been putting a major emphasis on that rushing component. Without that element this week, Garoppolo possibly takes to the air a bit more against a bad Seahawks defense that ranks 22nd in overall DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA.
I've got to hand it to Derek Carr. He's had a really solid season, especially considering all the distractions the Raiders have had to deal with. Carr leads the league in pass yards per game (310.4) and ranks a respectable tied for 14th in pass touchdowns per game (1.5). I'm highly intrigued by this Washington at Raiders game and Vegas agrees as the 50 point Over/Under is the second-highest of the entire week. Carr gets to play at home and will take aim at a Washington defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA.
Taylor Heinicke will also benefit from playing in this favorable fantasy contest and like Derek Carr, has a similarly favorable matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks 24th in overall DVOA and 25th in pass DVOA. Priced at only $5,600 and with solid weapons in Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, and Antonio Gibson to work with, Heinicke will likely do enough to hit that cash line if the rest of your studs deliver.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
| 1 | Jonathan Taylor | at Texans | $9,200 |
| 2 | Joe Mixon | vs. Chargers | $8,100 |
| 3 | Elijah Mitchell | at Seahawks | $6,000 |
| 4 | Alexander Mattison | at Lions | $7,600 |
| 5 | Leonard Fournette | at Falcons | $7,300 |
Jonathan Taylor ranks sixth in opportunities per game (21) and his production with one of the best workloads in the league has been incredible. The Colts are ten-point favorites against the Texans and Houston ranks 25th in run DVOA.
Joe Mixon ranks fifth in opportunities per game (21.6), has scored in eight straight games, and will play at home against the Chargers defense ranked dead last in run DVOA.
It's truly remarkable Elijah Mitchell's price tag is only $6,000. Mitchell ranks eighth in opportunities per game (19.8) and just posted 168 total yards and a touchdown last week on 33 opportunities. The 49ers are three-point favorites against the Seahawks and Seattle's defense ranks 22nd in overall DVOA. Plus, the Seahawks' offense has been unable to sustain drives all season. Look for San Francisco to dominate the time of possession.
In two games without Dalvin Cook this year, Alexander Mattison put up 171 total yards on 34 opportunities in Week 3 against the Seahawks and 153 total yards and a touchdown on 32 opportunities in Week 5 against the Lions. Mattison just so happens to be playing Detroit again this week. The Vikings are 7.5 point favorites and the Lions defense ranks 28th in overall DVOA and 21st in run DVOA.
Leonard Fournette ranks 12th in opportunities per game (18.3) and is tied with Austin Ekeler for the third-most receptions (51) at the Running Back position behind only D'Andre Swift and Najee Harris. The Buccaneers are 10.5 point favorites against the Falcons and Atlanta's defense ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 23rd in run DVOA.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
| 1 | Cooper Kupp | vs. Jaguars | $9,000 |
| 2 | Keenan Allen | at Bengals | $7,500 |
| 3 | Diontae Johnson | vs. Ravens | $6,800 |
| 4 | Brandon Aiyuk | at Seahawks | $5,600 |
| 5 | Jaylen Waddle | vs. Giants | $6,400 |
| 6 | Darnell Mooney | vs. Cardinals | $5,600 |
| 7 | Hunter Renfrow | vs. Washington | $5,800 |
Cooper Kupp continues to smash and now gets to play at home against a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and dead last in pass DVOA. Robert Woods is out for the year and Odell Beckham will likely be playing at less than 100% this week due to a hip issue.
Keenan Allen has been "Mr. Consistent" all season and volume has played a big role as he ranks tied for fourth in targets per game (10.5). I'm extremely excited about this Chargers at Bengals game as I expect it to shoot out. If so, Allen should be in for another solid outing.
Diontae Johnson ranks third in targets per game (10.9) yet is priced at only $6,800. The Steelers are 4.5 point underdogs so they'll need Johnson and this is a matchup where he should be able to get things done against a Ravens defense that ranks 24th in pass DVOA.
Deebo Samuel's absence is humongous and provides an enormous upgrade for Brandon Aiyuk in a favorable matchup against a bad Seahawks defense that ranks 22nd in overall DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA. Aiyuk has been fully removed from Kyle Shanahan's doghouse for months now and has posted at least 85 receiving yards in three of his past four games.
Jaylen Waddle ranks tied for 13th in the league in targets per game (8.6) and fifth in receptions (77) as he's benefited mightily from the absence of Will Fuller and DeVante Parker yet has also put his talent on display and should be commended for that. Waddle appears in line for another solid game with Miami projecting to dominate time of possession since Mike Glennon will be the starting Quarterback for the Giants.
Darnell Mooney has seen 24 targets over his past two games and Allen Robinson is Doubtful for Week 13. The Bears are 7.5 point underdogs. Andy Dalton will be throwing a lot and many of those targets will be in the direction of the very talented Mooney.
Henry Ruggs is long gone and Darren Waller will miss Week 13 due to injury. Hunter Renfrow has seen nine targets in three of his past four games. I'm highly intrigued by this Washington at Raiders game and Vegas agrees as the 50 point Over/Under is the second-highest of the entire week. Renfrow should have a solid day against a Washington defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
| 1 | Rob Gronkowski | at Falcons | $5,300 |
| 2 | Mark Andrews | at Steelers | $6,000 |
After playing on 59% of the offensive snaps in his return in Week 11, Rob Gronkowski shot up to 82% of the offensive snaps last week. Gronkowski has seen 17 targets, caught 13 balls, and totaled 194 receiving yards over this two-game stretch. Gronk is fully back and now gets to destroy a Falcons defense that ranks 29th in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA.
Mark Andrews has seen 38 targets over his past four games and has a favorable matchup against a Steelers defense that ranks 27th in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
| 1 | Miami Dolphins | vs. Giants | $3,300 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | at Jets | $3,600 |
The Dolphins defense is playing great football as of late and get to play at home in this one against Mike Glennon. The Dolphins are six-point home favorites and the Giants have the lowest Implied Team Total (16.75) of the entire week.
Zach Wilson has been atrocious this season, throwing only four touchdowns to ten interceptions in seven games. The Eagles are 6.5 point favorites in this one and the Jets have the sixth-lowest Implied Team Total (19.25) of the week.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
| 1 | Joe Burrow | vs. Chargers | $6,300 |
| 2 | Justin Herbert | at Bengals | $6,700 |
| 3 | Tom Brady | at Falcons | $7,200 |
| 4 | Lamar Jackson | at Steelers | $7,800 |
I'm extremely excited about this Chargers at Bengals game and am shocked Vegas doesn't have it listed with the highest Over/Under of the week. Instead, the 49.5 point Over/Under ranks third behind Buccaneers at Falcons and Washington at Raiders. That perhaps creates a bit of leverage here but we already have a ton of built-in leverage when rostering Joe Burrow since Joe Mixon projects to be one of the highest owned players on the entire slate. The Chargers run defense has been putrid all season and ranks dead last in run DVOA. Mixon is on a heater and has scored in eight straight games. The masses won't be able to resist and I don't blame them. But from a tournament perspective where we're playing for first, the huge payout, and all the bragging rights, we have to remember we have no idea how this game will play out between two very competitive teams. Football is a weird sport and the small s
