My projections are the guiding beacon for most of my fantasy content, takes, and draft picks each season. I gear them towards finding the most likely outcome for each player, but it is always important to understand that it is only one of a wide range of consequences. When you are the architect behind the results, it is easier to see the many ways in which results may fall. Below are some stats, thoughts, and random musings for each team that I have encountered during this process.
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback
A Week 11 AC joint injury greatly changed the way Kyler Murray was used on the ground. He was averaging 66.9 rushing yards per game before that.
Running Back
I'm not projecting this dynamic to be all-too dissimilar from last year, with James Conner replacing Kenyan Drake as the primary early-down and goal-line back. There is some potential that Conner is dust, but it's also possible he simply struggled with injuries and behind a poor Steeler offensive line.
Wide Receiver
DeAndre Hopkins should continue his target dominance. I love Rondale Moore replacing Larry Fitzgerald in the slot. Fitzgerald garnered 16 and 21 percent of the targets the past two seasons, and Moore is a far superior athlete in this stage of their respective careers. The Air Raid should accentuate Moore's best qualities.
Tight End
Kliff Kingsbury scarcely uses this position, so I'm staying far away.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
An interesting dynamic here with Arthur Smith -- a predominantly run-oriented coordinator -- as the head coach. I used a mix of Smith's past two years with Ryan Tannehill along with the last two Atlanta seasons to drive the team projections. The Falcons likely will still be pretty bad on defense, which keeps Ryan viable.
Running Back
My dirtiest confession of the summer is that I really like Mike Davis. The advanced stats say he forced a lot of missed tackles last year and has very little competition. So why not Mike Davis?
Wide Receiver
The departure of Julio Jones keeps Calvin Ridley as a target monster in this offense. I'm way lower on Russell Gage than consensus. He is a nice tertiary option for an offense, but I doubt he can take on a large workload.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts will be in a position to break rookie records. He won't replace Jones 1:1 in this offense but is the clear second target. Smith has a history of utilizing his tight ends as well.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback
In the offseason, the additions of Rashod Bateman, Sammy Watkins, and Tylan Wallace have me thinking Baltimore will pass more than we have seen in the past. I gave a 15 percent bump in pass rate for the Ravens from what I would have projected off of historical numbers. Lamar Jackson's ceiling is still sky-high.
Running Back
Consider me the ultimate J.K. Dobbins bear this year. He out-carried Gus Edwards just 13 to 11.6 in games played together without Mark Ingram. We have already heard some signal that Edwards could be the favorite in the passing game or at the goal-line. I still give Dobbins the projected edge but greatly prefer Edwards at ADP.
Wide Receiver
Right now, I have Bateman projected to miss three games, but he would be my per-game target leader in this offense. He has a better all-around skill-set than Marquise Brown.
Tight End
Mark Andrews has seen at least 25 percent of targets each of the past two seasons. I have him a tick lower with Bateman in town, but this could be his best season yet.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
There is a lot of continuity in this offense, and I expect it to remain one of the most pass-happy in football. Josh Allen was also the best goal-line option for Buffalo in 2020.
Running Back
I have this projected at a near-even split, with Moss scoring more touchdowns and Singletary doing most of the receiving work. The floor on Moss is pretty low with a questionable ceiling.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs is the new Antonio Brown: high-volume, slippery, and explosive. His touchdowns should come up in 2021. The remaining wide receivers are murky, but I'm still planting my flag on Gabriel Davis. He may open up the year as the WR4, but the Bills use 10 personnel at one of the highest rates in the league, and I'm expecting Davis' fresh legs and talent to win out eventually. Cole Beasley could miss time this year for various health-related reasons, and Emmanuel Sanders did not look good last year in New Orleans.
Tight End
I still see this as a likely Zach Ertz destination, but if that does not come to fruition, Dawson Knox is unlikely to see a spike in volume from the 50-ish targets he's seen the past two seasons. This is a touchdown-only play, though it is worth pointing out that Knox has a 7.3 percent touchdown rate for his career.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback
This Joe Brady offense played pretty well last season -- even without Christian McCaffrey. I'm not sure how talented Sam Darnold actually is, but there is a decent ceiling here (as far as pass-only quarterbacks go) if he can prove to be better than Teddy Bridgewater. The bar is low.
Running Back
Plug McCaffrey in for the most expected usage in football. Don't over-think the 1.01.
Wide Receiver
Robby Anderson out-targeted D.J. Moore and played him to basically a draw in fantasy points per game. The ADP gap between them doesn't make a ton of sense, though Moore does have an excellent ceiling as an ascending young player. I have Terrace Marshall for 20 percent of the targets after Curtis Samuel posted that same number in 2020. The Panthers are one of the most highly-concentrated passing games in the NFL, and Marshall played for Brady at LSU.
Tight End
This position was scarcely used last year, and targets will likely be divided three ways between Ian Thomas, Dan Arnold, and rookie Tommy Tremble.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback
Matt Nagy has some experience with young quarterbacks. He oversaw veteran Alex Smith in Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes II waiting in the wings and allowed Mike Glennon to start the first four games of his head-coaching career before giving way to Mitch Trubisky. I'm currently projecting Andy Dalton to start the first four games of 2021 before Justin Fields gets his shot. The latter has by far the better ceiling per game.
Running Back
David Montgomery had a breakout in 2020, but it came with Tarik Cohen out and no other viable running backs. I'm expecting that to change this season. Cohen is not quite healthy, but Chicago also signed Damien Williams. This is bad news for Montgomery's target volume, though he should remain the lead on the ground. Williams is a priority backup in drafts.
Wide Receiver
Allen Robinson is the obvious alpha here, and I remain low on Darnell Mooney -- an empty air yards king in 2020. The Bears jettisoned the hated Anthony Miller and replaced him with Damiere Byrd -- an average but capable receiver.
Tight End
Jimmy Graham will still, regretfully, be involved, but Cole Kmet should take another step forward this year. He played on 70 percent of snaps or more in his final seven games of 2020.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback
Cincy played at an insane pace last year in Joe Burrow's healthy games -- over 70 plays per contest. They also threw it over 62 percent of the time. This is an ideal situation for any passing game. Burrow has the upside to lead the league in passing and have a monster season.
Running Back
With no Giovani Bernard, this should be the Joe Mixon show. He is a capable pass-catcher, who I am projecting to see a good bit of volume in that area. Samaje Perine is an interesting backup but more of a pure handcuff at this point. There is some small chance Chris Evans takes over receiving duties, but none of these guys are as good as Bernard. Mixon currently projects inside of my top-five running backs.
Wide Receiver
If the Bengals can maintain anything close to the passing volume they had last year under Burrow, everyone should be able to eat. My current target leader for the team is Tyler Boyd, who earned more targets than young stud Tee Higgins, and did so at a very reliable low aDOT. Higgins should continue his progression as a receiver.
JaMarr Chase was the fifth overall pick in the draft and one of the best receiver prospects of the last decade. His impact should be immediate. All three of these wideouts carry target projections north of 18 percent. This should be a very concentrated passing game.
Tight End
This isn't a huge usage position for the Bengals, but C.J. Uzomah is the lead target-getter in it. He has some deep league potential.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback
I am still projecting Cleveland for a conservative 47 percent rush rate, but it is worth noting that the Browns threw the ball a lot more down the stretch -- 57 percent in their final six games -- versus 48 percent in the first 10. There is passing-game upside to be had with Baker Mayfield.
Running Back
Kareem Hunt continues to siphon work away from Nick Chubb, and fantasy gamers continue not to care. Chubb is responsible for just 55 percent of team carries and 5.6 percent of targets the past two seasons when Hunt plays. Cleveland was projected with a 10.5 win total, which is a net positive for Chubb's value, but he will likely need a Hunt injury to pay off his top-15 price tag.
Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry should garner at least 19 percent of the targets, and a nice bounce-back year could be in store for the former if he can stay healthy. He has posted 22 and 26 percent target shares the past two seasons but has struggled to find the endzone. I like Donovan Peoples-Jones as a deep flyer after averaging 21.7 yards per reception as a rookie.
Tight End
Austin Hooper is a secret volume-hog, securing 18 percent of the targets in 2020. That number did not change with Beckham healthy.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback
The only passing game that could trump Burrow in 2020 was Dak Prescott's Cowboys, who averaged 74.6 plays per game and 47.2 pass attempts in Prescott's five starts.
Running Back
I'm expecting Ezekiel Elliott to see a small reduction in workload after the coaching staff commented on looking to keep him healthy for the playoffs. Tony Pollard is up to the task after looking impressive each of the past two seasons in limited opportunities. There is a lot of outlier touchdown upside with Elliott.
Wide Receiver
The target spread won't be quite as even here as it was with the Bengals, but it is clear who their top three are. CeeDee Lamb has the second-year sex appeal, but Amari Cooper is healthy and should still be the projected target leader in the offense. Michael Gallup is third, but I'm projecting more volume than he saw at the start of last season. Gallup was quietly on an 1100-yard pace the first month of 2020.
Tight End
I have Blake Jarwin as the preferred option here, but Dalton Schultz likely cuts into his load enough to keep him from TE1 status. There is a lot of variance in the outcomes, given that Jarwin is coming off of a significant injury.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
I have the total passing opportunities projected dead even between Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater. The former has performed better during camp, but the latter has a relationship with the GM who traded for him this off-season. Neither quarterback is very good, so I'm assuming they both see run in 2021. With that said, I'd imagine the preference is for Lock to take the bull by the horns.
Running Back
I have Javonte Williams projected for more touches overall than Melvin Gordon, but I'd expect it to be a gradual progression to that role. Initially, expect Gordon to lead the team in backfield touches.
Wide Receiver
It is difficult to project who will be the target leader here. Courtland Sutton missed last season but had a breakout 2019. Jerry Jeudy went over 800 yards as a rookie despite terrible quarterback play. Right now, I am projecting a small edge for Sutton. K.J. Hamler doesn't project well but could have some fun spike week potential as a lid-lifter who I was very high on as a prospect.
Tight End
Noah Fant saw 20 percent of the targets in his healthy games last season and figures to be a focal point again this year. I have this passing game extremely concentrated on him, Sutton, and Jeudy.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback
Anthony Lynn threw the ball 64 percent of the time with the Chargers in losses. Without a mobile quarterback, we should expect hefty passing volume in woeful Detroit. That could give Jared Goff better-than-you-think appeal on volume alone.
Running Back
This coaching staff has made it clear throughout the off-season that Jamaal Williams will have a role. Right now, I have DAndre Swift projected for 55 percent of the carries to Williams' 30, but I could see that being as much as 50/35 in favor of Williams if this becomes a true Austin Ekeler/Melvin Gordon-type of dynamic. Regardless, Swift should see a ton of targets. A good argument could be made for him being the second-best receiver on the team.
Wide Receiver
Something I found interesting when diving into Detroit was how efficient Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman have been in their careers. Perhaps even more notably, they have career aDOTs of 13.1 and 15.3, respectively. Expect them to be doing a lot of work down the field, keeping things open underneath for rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown, the tight ends, and running backs.
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson has massive volume potential. He was an exciting prospect and made some leaps going from his rookie to second season. Given the lack of receiver talent, there are some outlier scenarios where he approaches a 30 percent target share. It may not always be pretty week-to-week, but the usage should be there.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers had a monster 9.1 percent touchdown rate in 2020 but has not reached 4,500 yards passing since 2011. Either the Packers need to ramp up the passing to appease the reigning MVP, or it will be tough for Rodgers to match expectations in 2021.
Running Back
Aaron Jones has always been efficient, but the team consistently keeps him in the mid-50s for percentage of team rushes. With that said, he could pick up some extra receiving work with Williams gone from the team. A.J. Dillon will be Jones' foil on the ground and presents a real threat to absorb goal-line work. He is an unproven receiver but could catch more balls than expected.
Wide Receiver
This is the Davante Adams show, as he and Rodgers have some of the best chemistry in the entire league. He has at least 29 percent of team targets each of the past three seasons. I'm intrigued by the Randall Cobb reunion. His efficiency hasn't really dropped off on stops in Houston and Dallas, with a yards-per-target well over 9.0. A turn-back-the-clock season is not out of the question. The rest of the receivers are largely uninteresting to me, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling projects for the most volume.
Tight End
Robert Tonyan Jr was touchdown dependent in 2020 but does maintain a RACR over 1.0 with an aDOT over 9.0. Increased pass volume would benefit him, but there are paths to success without maintaining his outrageous 2020 scoring rate.
Houston Texans
Quarterback
I have no idea what will happen with Deshaun Watson, but it seems most likely that he has played his last down in Houston. I have Tyrod Taylor starting seven games, with rookie Davis Mills starting 10. There was some first-round buzz on Mills during the draft process, and the Texans traded up to get him despite not owning many picks. It makes sense to get an extended look at him before (potentially) drafting one of the top 2022 signal-callers.
Running Back
This has been a bit of a mess. David Johnson was the presumptive starter entering the off-season, but the Texans have added Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram, and Rex Burkhead. Lindsay and Johnson currently sport the same rush usage projection for me, with Ingram following. The receiving volume should be divvied up fairly evenly. None of these backs are particularly attractive for fantasy.
Wide Receiver
Few receivers have been more productive than Brandin Cooks. Though he has dealt with concussion issues, he has posted high-end seasons with four different franchises. With a relatively barren skill group in the passing game, his projected 26.5 percent target share has Cooks the WR12 in PPR scoring. Nico Collins is an interesting late-round target given his athleticism and the general production curve of rookie wideouts.
Tight End
The Texans have actually targeted tight ends a decent bit, but it's difficult to know what that will look like under a new coaching staff and widely variant quarterback play. I gave Jordan Akins an 11 percent target share, which still doesn't make him viable in 12-man leagues.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback
After some back and forth, I have Wentz projected healthy enough to start in Week 1. He could miss some time later in the year, but I generally do not project any injuries. This is a team that would prefer to run the ball with leads, so Wentz is more reserved to superflex formats for now.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor had a 54 percent rush rate last year, but I bumped that to 61 percent after he erupted down the stretch of 2020. Marlon Mack coming off an Achilles injury and Jordan Wilkins do not frighten me too much. The amount of target volume Taylor can pry from Nyheim Hines will determine his ceiling.
Wide Receiver
T.Y. Hilton gets forgotten about in drafts, but he was pretty good last year. Other than Michael Pittman, there really isn't a ton of competition for targets here. I am still projecting it, Hilton, then Pittman usage-wise. Zach Pascal and Parris Campbell should have a real fight on their hands for targets, rendering each rather uninspiring.
Tight End
This is traditionally a heavily-targeted position for Frank Reich, the issue is that they have three different players who will receive targets. Jack Doyle is the stable veteran who offers nothing after the catch. Mo Allie-Cox is a great athlete who can do stuff down the field. Kylen Granson is a rookie who the team appears to be invested in with some natural receiving skills.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback
It is difficult to pinpoint exactly what this offense will look like under the new coaching staff. I used a bunch of Darrell Bevell's historical play breakdowns (accounting for projected wins), then bumped the play rate 10 percent to account for Urban Meyer's penchant for up-tempo offenses in college. That has Jacksonville top-five in plays run. Trevor Lawrence should start every game and offers some sneaky rushing upside.
Running Back
This is a tough situation to project, but right now, I have James Robinson as the leader in carries, with Travis Etienne seeing the lion's share of running back targets. Etienne projects far better due to the relative value of targets and carries.
Wide Receiver
Other than Etienne, team targets should be mostly absorbed by three players: Laviska Shenault, Marvin Jones, and D.J. Chark. Right now, I have the usage projected in that order, but it is all quite close. Shenault is an impressive second-year player, while Jones has a history with Bevell. Chark needing hand surgery doesn't help him keep up to speed with his new coaches, and he could be expendable after this season.
Tight End
I have James O'Shaughnessy with the most targets of this group, but none of the tight ends are draftable.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
With an improved offensive line, both the single-season yards and touchdown records are in danger of being broken by Patrick Mahomes II.
Running Back
Despite struggling to find the end-zone, Clyde Edwards-Helaire very quietly secured 55 percent of the carries and 11 percent of targets in his rookie season. He is one of the easier bounce-back candidates at the position, given the overall quality of the offense.
Wide Receiver
I'm giving Tyreek Hill a 23 percent target share, but it could get much higher if Mecole Hardman and the rest of the receivers prove to be ineffective. Hardman has 14 percent of the targets, with Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle for eight and seven percent. There is a lot of variance here, but we know that the Mahomes volume is valuable. Hardman is particularly interesting given his early-career 0.99 RACR on a 10.76 aDOT.
Tight End
Kelce has 300 point potential at tight end until he starts to show signs of slowing down. A similar volume argument can be made for him as for Hill.
Las Vegas Raiders
Quarterback
The Raiders haven't really given any indication that they would play Marcus Mariota over Derek Carr. The latter has been historically more effective than most think based on completion rate over expectation and PACR.
Running Back
The Kenyan Drake addition muddies this picture a little, but I think he will mostly be absorbing all of the work that has been given to the other Raider backs over the years. I still gave Josh Jacobs a 60 percent rush share, while Drake sits at 25 percent with a nine percent target share.
Wide Receiver
Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfrow, and Bryan Edwards are the projected starters, and I like Ruggs the most after being a top-15 pick in 2020. Renfrow has at least 15 percent of the targets in each of his first two seasons, so he should be somewhat active out of the slot. The Bryan Edwards hype is loud, but I'm not sure how much room there is for his role to grow. I gave him a 10 percent target share.
Tight End
Darren Waller is the only tight end who can reasonably compete with Travis Kelce. Last year, he had a monster 28 percent target share, and the Raiders' big receiver addition -- John Brown -- is likely to play off the bench in 2021.
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
Joe Lombardi is a fun offensive coordinator with the Chargers, but I've comped this offensive personnel more to his Detroit teams than what he worked with in New Orleans. Justin Herbert as the Matthew Stafford of this team is exciting.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler has never been a high-volume rusher, and that should continue this season. Think of him as more a super-charged Theo Riddick than Alvin Kamara in terms of usage -- especially around the goal line. One of Josh Kelley, Justin Jackson, and Larry Rountree could be valuable if they can take control of the secondary touches. Right now, my money is on Kelley.
Wide Receiver
I used the target shares for Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson to determine the usage patterns for Keenan Allen and Mike Williams -- 22.5 and 19 percent, respectively. Rookie Josh Palmer is my favorite to emerge in the number three role.
Tight End
Jared Cook had a 13 percent target share in each of his seasons with the Saints, and I'm dropping that to 11 percent here due to the presence of Donald Parham. Cook will need to benefit from scoring to be useful outside of spot starts.
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback
The expectation is that Matt Stafford will be a substantial upgrade on Jared Goff. I'm not sure how this will impact the play-calling, though I feel as though this team is likely to pass more in the redzone, especially with Cam Akers out for the year. I bumped receiver scoring rates from their career norms (my quarterback projections are just aggregated receiving stats).
Running Back
Darrell Henderson should be the clear lead back, but I'm not anticipating him getting quite the same load as Akers would have. He has 45 percent of the rushes and six percent of targets, though the upside is there for a lot more. Xavier Jones is the preferred backup to target.
Wide Receiver
Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp have maintained at least 22 and 20 percent of team targets respectively the past four seasons. More touchdown scoring could vault them both into WR1 territory. Van Jefferson, DeSean Jackson, and Tutu Atwell figure to split up the majority of the remaining receiver targets. Jackson and Atwell bring the deep speed element the Rams have been sorely lacking since Brandin Cooks.
Tight End
Tyler Higbee certainly benefits from the departure of Gerald Everett, but rookie Jacob Harris should take just enough targets to cap his ceiling. I'm also expecting the secondary receivers to be more active than they have been in the past.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback
The Dolphins put a ton of effort this offseason into making Tua Tagovailoa better. They added offensive line help, and brought on Will Fuller -- notorious for improving quarterback efficiency -- and Jaylen Waddle -- Tagovailoa's college teammate. I like him as a dark horse MVP candidate in his second season, which is reflected in his projection. This offense could play fast with two co-offensive coordinators that possess experience in up-tempo systems.
Running Back
Myles Gaskin may not have the stranglehold on this backfield we once thought, but he should remain the primary receiver out of the backfield. Malcolm Brown seems destined to do much of what he did with the Rams -- stealing money touches around the goal-line. This could further put the squeeze on Patrick Laird's role.
Wide Receiver
Much like a few teams we've seen before, much of the targets should be concentrated on the top three receivers. DeVante Parker has the highest target projection, but I'd expect Fuller to be right there with him per game (he is suspended for Week 1). I could see Parker's role fading the most as the year goes on. Waddle maintains an 18 percent target share for me in his rookie season. This should be an offense that lives in 11 personnel.
Tight End
Mike Gesicki should take a step back in target share with the new competition but could break even on raw volume if the pace improves. Miami may be souring on his future with the team after drafting Hunter Long, so tread with caution here.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback
The narrative around Kirk Cousins is likely misguided, as he has maintained a high level of statistical play. The real issue for him as a fantasy player is that Mike Zimmer loves to be run-heavy when possible. As a middle-of-the-pack team, I project them for just a 53 percent pass rate. On a weekly level, there should be some spike weeks for Cousins when Minnesota trails.
Running Back
This is the Dalvin Cook show. He has the second-best volume projection to only McCaffrey.
Wide Receiver
As Adam Thielen ages, I'm expecting Justin Jefferson to continue to grow. The second-year receiver has a 24 percent target projection for me, while Thielen's is "only" 21 percent. None of the secondary receivers are worth much of a look.
Tight End
There was a brief Tyler Conklin scare mid-way through the off-season -- and I certainly expect him to play -- but Irv Smith is the ascending athletic talent who should garner a decent amount of volume. His 15 percent target projection could end up being on the low-end.
New England Patriots
Quarterback
Though Cam Newton is the veteran who still has some talent in the tank, I'm favoring Mac Jones in starts 12 to five. The offense will look dramatically different with these two players. The former likely leads an offense that is over 50 percent run, while the rookie would allow Josh McDaniels to get back to a heavy-pass attack. Jones raises the ceiling of the entire offense, and his start number has me bullish on a number of Patriot pass-catchers.
Running Back
Damien Harris will lead the backfield in carries, but scoring touchdowns could prove to be quite difficult. Newton owned the goal-line role last year, and that could continue even if Jones is starting. I also like Rhamondre Stevenson to own a Rex Burkhead-type of role eventually. James White should continue to catch plenty of passes, 50+ if Jones can get enough starts. He has at least 17 percent of team targets the past three years.
Wide Receiver
Nelson Agholor was quietly excellent last year with the Raiders. Even if you believe he is overpaid, he likely leads Patriot receivers in targets. Jakobi Meyers is a fun down-field threat, but I don't view these two players as particularly close.
Tight End
It will not surprise me if the two top target-getters for this team are tight ends. I give the edge to Jonnu Smith, but it is slight. Hunter Henry could play more snaps due to his blocking. I'm not expecting parallel production, but Henry/Smith gives us our first real glimpse of a Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez dynamic in New England.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Though Jameis Winston is the expected starter by the media and sportsbooks, I'm expecting Taysom Hill to get more action. Sean Payton should revel in the opportunity to make opposing defensive coordinators crazy trying to figure out their weekly game plan. I have Hill leading in starts 10 to seven. He should bring a disruptive rushing dynamic in Winston's starts.
Running Back
I'm not buying the rumors that Latavius Murray could be cut. He has been one of the best backups in the league with New Orleans and should continue his 1B role. Alvin Kamara risks losing some target volume in Hill's starts but should see an elevated receiving role early with Michael Thomas out. Kamara saw 1, 2, 3, and 10 targets in Hill's four 2020 starts.
Wide Receiver
I was projecting an outstanding bounce-back season for Thomas before his surgery. It is unclear when he will return, but right now, I am projecting him for 11 games. When he is on the field, Thomas figures to be peppered early and often. As good as Marquez Callaway has been in camp, the secondary receivers here still leave a lot to be desired. I expect that TreQuan Smith and Deonte Harris still compete strongly with Callaway for targets.
Tight End
Adam Trautman has taken a hit for me after reports that Juwan Johnson is looking good in his conversion to tight end from wide receiver. I'm not ready to call Johnson the next Darren Waller just yet, but the signal is strong enough for me to give him seven percent of team targets to Trautman's 10.
New York Giants
Quarterback
The Daniel Jones hate has gone too far. He averaged 38.4 rushing yards per game through his first 10 contests of 2020. Injuries derailed that pace, but the rushing is tantalizing and valuable. The addition of Kenny Golladay should also give him a true alpha target for the first time in his career.
Running Back
I'm giving Saquon Barkley only a 65 percent rush share since I anticipate a slight reduction in workload early in the year. He should maintain top-five weekly upside. The backup situation lacks clarity and is something I'm avoiding for now.
Wide Receiver
Golladay should step in immediately and claim over 20 percent of the targets -- provided he is fully recovered from his hamstring injury. Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, and Kadarius Toney are all in the 8 to 12 target share range, with Slayton projected for the most targets. As Toney's role grows, I would expect it to be at the expense of Shepard. Toney's athleticism figures to play best in the slot. It is worth pondering if Slayton's efficiency will improve now that he is not the featured target. He has an attractive 13.9 career aDOT.
Tight End
Evan Engram has had issues with drops but is still an athletic marvel for the position. I have him second on the team in targets, which portends a fringe-TE1 season on the cheap.
New York Jets
Quarterback
The 49er roots are deep in this Jet coaching staff, with both Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur coming over from the bay area. They will want to run with a lead but could struggle to get them in 2021. Wilson is talented enough -- and a sneaky enough rusher -- to post some fantasy-viable numbers as a rookie.
Running Back
Much like Kyle Shanahan teams, I'm expecting a big split at this position. Right now I have Tevin Coleman projected for the most carries due to his veteran status and system familiarity. Rookie Michael Carter should lead in targets. Ty Johnson should be a factor in both phases.
Wide Receiver
Corey Davis should lead in targets after coming over as a well-paid free agent. I have him pressing the 200 point mark in PPR leagues. The other projected starters are Elijah Moore and Jamison Crowder. The rookie starting outside opens him up to a lot of YAC in this system, and keeps the slot free for Crowder, who was very productive in an otherwise disastrous 2020 Jets season. I have Keelan Cole projected for more targets than Denzel Mims, who has missed time and has not been impressive this summer.
Tight End
It is looking more and more like this position will not be a huge factor in the offense. Chris Herndon is still the loose target-leader here, though it seems he has been pushed by Tyler Kroft. The receiver depth is good enough for this to be a low-volume position.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts should produce at a high-level for fantasy when he starts -- but that position does not seem overly secure. The coaching staff has not endorsed him heavily, and the Eagles have been strongly rumored to be in the mix for Deshaun Watson. Assuming Hurts gets through the year unscathed, he has a 30 percent rush share for me. There is top-five upside here.
Running Back
Nick Sirianni played Jonathan Taylor in a committee for much of 2020 and should have one again this year with lesser talent at the RB1 spot. Miles Sanders has been someone I am mostly avoiding as a result. Boston Scott and Kenny Gainwell have both earned first-team reps this summer, and I love the latter as a deep flier. He was a workhorse and efficiency hero at Memphis before opting out of the 2020 season.
Wide Receiver
Many have left Jalen Reagor for dead after a poor rookie year, but he still projects as the target-leader in Philly for me. Devonta Smith has already dealt with injuries and may not have a clean transition to the pros as a career outlier. Neither player is an aggressive target for me, but I don't have them far apart in scoring. Travis Fulgham is my projected third starter in three-wide sets.
Tight End
For now, I'm assuming Zach Ertz doesn't start the year as an Eagle, but if he does, that will lower Dallas Goedert's projected 19.5 percent target share a fair amount. There is more downside in this projection than upside.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger had a lot of empty calories last year, as the pass volume was high, but at very low depths of target. With Matt Canada as the offensive coordinator, I'm anticipating more rushing and more deep shots in the passing game. Roethlisberger is not a particularly attractive fantasy quarterback.
Running Back
The efficiency could be questionable, but Najee Harris should be peppered with volume. His 75 percent rushing share and 10 percent target share puts him towards the top of the league in usage. There is a lot of upside if this offense can move the ball and find the endzone.
Wide Receiver
I'm anticipating Chase Claypool emerging as the target leader here after a fantastic rookie year. He is the only wideout the Steelers have who can put consistent stress on the defense down the field, and players to see his success as rookies typically realize volume increases in Year 2. JuJu Smith-Schuster still has terrific career efficiency, which has him solidly ahead of Diontae Johnson for me. Johnson has done well at earning targets but not at producing with them. For perspective, his career RACR is 0.8 while Smith-Schuster's is about 1.00.
Tight End
Eric Ebron has some competition this year from second-round tight end Pat Freiermuth, but should still more than double him up on targets due to the learning curve at the position. An 11.5 percent target share has him in spot-starter territory.
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback
It is possible that Jimmy Garoppolo begins the year as the starter, but I am not expecting it to be for long. Trey Lance is the far superior athlete and offers more durability in the pocket than Garoppolo. I have this projected out as 15 starts for Lance to just two for the veteran. Robert Griffin III III had a top-five quarterback season as a rookie with a similar skill-set in a Shanahan system, and his top target was Josh Morgan. San Francisco is far more loaded at the skill positions.
Running Back
Shanahanigans are always in play and tough to predict, but I'm expecting Trey Sermon and Raheem Mostert at a near-even split in touches, between 25 and 30 percent of the rushes apiece. Of course, if Garoppolo manages to start more games, then there will be more volume available for the running backs. Mostert averages 5.6 yards-per-carry for his career.
Wide Receiver
This is a thin position for the Niners, but Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are projected for 20+ percent of the targets. Aiyuk is coming off an impressive rookie season with 583 yards and four touchdowns over his final seven games. Samuel missed most of the year with injuries but managed to catch 75 percent of his targets.
Tight End
I gave George Kittle 26 percent of the targets, a number he has hit in two of the past three seasons. The Niner passing game doesn't project super highly because of the overall volume. Still, it is worth imagining a world where Lance allows for more quality passing and/or a heavily concentrated pass attack around Kittle, Samuel, and Aiyuk. There is a lot of untapped ceiling that the projections won't capture right now.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback
Pete Carroll has been emphatic about his desire to run the ball more, but new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron brings over an up-tempo system capable of throwing the ball effectively. I have Seattle passing on the higher-end -- 59.4 percent. Russell Wilson remains a QB1 with weekly upside.
Running Back
The run game should primarily lean on Chris Carson, but I still only gave him 45 percent of the team carries. That could easily end up on the low end, but the Seahawks very quietly have a lot of competency elsewhere in the backfield. Rashaad Penny seems to be the healthiest since his rookie year, and DeeJay Dallas was effective last year in a couple of spot starts.
Wide Receiver
The ADP gap between D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett makes little sense to me. Sure, Metcalf is the younger player approaching the better parts of the age curve, but these players finished just eight PPR points part in 2020. Expect them to receive the majority of the team receiving volume yet again. DWayne Eskridge has a clear path to WR3 duties and has spike-week potential for best-ball leagues.
Tight End
There is excitement over Everett, but don't forget about Will Dissly, who has a career of 9.6 yards per target. The usage here is fairly split -- 11 percent of targets to Everett and eight percent to Dissly. Career efficiency rates actually give Dissly a slight edge in total scoring.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
The Buccaneers project as my third-most efficient offense. They absolutely hummed last year once Antonio Brown was in the fold, passing close to 67 percent of the time. This is great news for Tom Brady, who once again has an absolutely loaded core of weapons to get the ball to. This includes Gio Bernard, who is one of the most efficient receiving backs in the NFL.
Running Back
I tried to project this as fairly as I could, giving Ronald Jones II 44 percent of the carries to Leonard Fournette's 28. Truthfully, I could see Jones running away with the early-down role. He was effective in 2020 before succumbing to injury and COVID -- so much so that the Bucs were going to cut Fournette had they not needed him to fill in. With Bernard as the primary receiver, Fournette is stuck in a bit of no man's land. Bernard should be the James White for Brady in 2021.
Wide Receiver
Brown actually out-targeted Chris Godwin last year in common games, but the latter sees the higher aDOT. Godwin, Brown, and Mike Evans are all projected for 18 percent or more of targets. Brown's ADP does not belong to be multiple rounds after his Tampa teammates.
Tight End
This is a three-way split between Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, and O.J. Howard. Gronk has roughly the same target projection as the other two tight ends combined, but it is always difficult to pin down his exact usage in the regular season. Howard was playing well before his Achilles tear, but it is unclear how his body will hold up in the first year off that injury.
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback
Tennessee's defense still isn't up to par, but they love to run the ball so much that I'm not sure it matters. Ryan Tannehill has displayed impressive efficiency with the Titans, and I'm expecting that to continue.
Running Back
Derrick Henry is an alien, and I'm giving him a 73 percent rush share despite the hefty volume that creates over 17 games. The receiving work may not be there, though, making Henry a riskier pick in PPR formats. Darrynton Evans is the backup to own and could have some standalone receiving value.
Wide Receiver
I'm basically expecting this to be a two-man show. Tennessee's receiver depth is week, but A.J. Brown and Julio Jones form one of the best tandems in the league. Brown should threaten to be the WR1 overall. He has a 28 percent target share for me with all-world career efficiency. If the Titans actually throw it more, he could have an absurd year. Jones' age likely precludes him from playing all the snaps but still projects for 22.5 percent of team targets.
Tight End
The Anthony Firkser hype never really made sense to me. He's an average talent who struggles to find the end zone. Geoff Swaim is good enough to take away about a third of the tight end looks.
Washington Football Team
Quarterback
Ryan Fitzpatrick brings some stability to the quarterback position, and he should be able to maximize Terry McLaurin and the other Washington weapons. Turnovers and potential injuries concern me a little -- I kind of like Taylor Heinicke as a late-round superflex option.
Running Back
The McCaffrey comps are well-noted with Antonio Gibson, but I will remain skeptical until they stop using J.D. McKissic in third-down situations. With that said, Gibson retains a 55 percent rush share projection with 10.5 percent of the targets. The ceiling is massive if he can usurp McKissic's role more as the season goes on
