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Success Despite Suboptimal Quarterbacking

What more can Allen Robinson do at this point in his career? Despite having the odds stacked against him seemingly every season, he continues to put up top-notch numbers. Going back to his college days, he’s dealt with a litany of blasé quarterbacks: Matt McGloin, Christian Hackenberg, Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Mitchell Trubisky, and Nick Foles. Now, heading into his eighth NFL season, he is all-but-guaranteed the best quarterback of his career, whether Andy Dalton or Justin Fields.

No Longer Injury Prone

Through 88 career games, Robinson is averaging 5.2 receptions for 68.2 yards and has hauled in 39 total touchdowns. The fantasy analyst community underplays his ability to shed an early-career injury-prone label. After dealing with injuries as a rookie and then tearing his ACL in his fourth season, he’s gone on to miss just three games over the last three years, all coming in 2018. He’s been targeted 150+ times in four of seven seasons, including the last two. He’s been a top-10 receiver in back-to-back years, ranking 8th and 9th, respectively. Yet, our staff consensus has him ranked 12th this preseason.

Once bitten, twice shy?

Robinson put the league on notice in 2015. With Blake Bortles at the helm for the Jacksonville Jaguars, a 22-year-old Robinson corralled 1,400 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns on his way to a No. 4 finish. He landed behind just Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Brandon Marshall as a second-year receiver, and the hype understandably ballooned. Robinson was, on average, the sixth wide receiver off the board the following season, and he disappointed those that drafted him. Although he saw the same number of targets from the same quarterback, his receiving yards and touchdowns dropped by 37% and 57%, respectively. The following season, Robinson tore his ACL in Week 1 and his time in Jacksonville came to an end. Since then, the market has perennially undervalued him.

After hitting the free agency market post-injury, the Chicago Bears brought him in on a three-year deal. There wasn’t much to inspire fans as Robinson’s history of lackluster quarterback play was set to continue with Mitchell Trubisky. Outside of a flukey Week 10 game against the Lions (133 yards and two touchdowns), Robinson failed to log more than 85 yards in a single game. Then, in 2019, Robinson found his groove in Chicago and has been a steady as they come since.

Contract concerns, but it never impacts Robinson's on-field play

The Bears placed the franchise tag on Robinson this March after the two parties could not work out a favorable extension. Luckily, we have a pretty solid gauge of what to expect from him in Matt Nagy’s offense by now. The exciting aspect here is that given Robinson’s age and anticipated upgrade at quarterback, we could see him excel in Chicago.

Although poised for another elite season, there is a potentially concerning undertone worth monitoring. Robinson has been frustrated throughout his time in Chicago, although it has never broken as a significant story. From lousy quarterback play to the lack of a long-term contract extension, there’s been an unspoken tension. Robinson has been a consummate professional, never going to press and always showing up to practice. When his defensive teammates sat out of early camp sessions just a few weeks ago, Robinson signed his $17.9 million tender and showed up ready to work. When he appears on television and radio, anchors desperately try to pull information from him regarding his contract discussions, but he refuses to take the bait.

Despite the soap-operatic nature of his contract situation, Robinson has never made his concerns public and keeps plugging away. The star receiver has smartly let his agent lobby for him publicly. Last year, when there was speculation a deal could finally get done, we saw cryptic tweets that added to the tension. This year, there was speculation that Robinson wouldn’t sign his franchise tender, which he put to rest just weeks later. He had every right to be upset with the Bears. After placing the franchise tag on him, the front office reportedly offered free agent Kenny Golladay between $11-12 million per year.

The Contested Catch King

Over the last two seasons, Robinson has made his living catching balls against tight coverage. He leads the league with 98 contested catches over the last two seasons; Miami's DeVante Parker is a distant second with 81 grabs.

Allen Robinson has 98 contested catches over the last two years.

The next closest player has 81.

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) July 12, 2021

What Robinson lacks in high-level speed and agility, he makes up for with an enormous catch radius, strong hands, and technical route-running. Mitchell Trubisky peppered Robinson with targets, knowing he would pull in catches even when draped by a defender. While that propped up Robinson’s fantasy floor, it crushed his ceiling. Regularly making acrobatic adjustments to poorly thrown balls, he averaged just 3.1 yards after the catch in 2020, 139th in the league. According to PlayerProfiler, his target accuracy ranked 82nd last year. What he struggled to do from an efficiency standpoint, he made up for in opportunity. He was third in targets, fourth in routes run, and seventh in air yards. If we can project a similar workload with improved targets from Andy Dalton or Justin Fields, why isn’t he ranked higher?

This diving Allen Robinson catch 😲

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/WbGZaGsoec

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 13, 2020

A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf, and Justin Jefferson are all ranked ahead of Robinson by the Footballguys staff. While they undoubtedly have higher ceilings, Robinson provides a much safer floor. If you’re committed to drafting running backs in your first two rounds, then selecting Allen Robinson as your WR1 is one of the best moves you can make. All of the Footballguys projectors have him racking up at least 1,195 yards and 6.5 touchdowns this year, which is right in line with what we’ve seen over the last two seasons. Just a slight bump to those numbers with better quarterback play could make him a top-five receiver.

Stats and Projections

Better quarterbacking could raise Robinson from a perennial top-10 receiver into the Top 3

Just how much can improved play from under center help a quarterback? Let’s take a look at DeAndre Hopkins, who spent his first five years catching passes from a carousel of Matt Schaub, Case Keenum, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, Brian Hoyer, T.J. Yates, Brandon Weeden, Brock Osweiler, and Tom Savage. After linking up with Deshaun Watson from 2018-2019 and Kyler Murray in 2020, his numbers exploded.

Check out Hopkins’s per-16 game numbers:

The top row looks eerily similar to what Robinson has done over the last few years in Chicago. If you think that Robinson and Hopkins are a fair comparison or that Justin Fields can play near the level we’ve seen from Watson or Murray, you can deduce that Robinson is in a position to take a huge step forward this year. Robinson is just a year older than Hopkins was when he elevated into the upper echelon. Why take a risk on chasing the next big thing when there’s already a perfectly formidable WR1 sitting there in the third round of your fantasy football draft?

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