One of the trickiest things to navigate as you approach your draft is how much -- or how little -- to react to soundbites from offseason workouts and the resulting swings in Average Draft Position (ADP). Sometimes when a player's ADP peaks this time of year, circumstances warrant it. But all too often, surges in ADP before training camps and preseason games begin are the results of groupthink and confirmation bias within the fantasy football community, creating landmines fantasy gamers must carefully avoid.
Below is a list of five wide receivers currently selected inside the Top 150 whose ADP has increased significantly in PPR leagues since June 1st (ADP data via Underdog Fantasy). Should you follow the herd and buy high, or is it time to bail on their inflated price tags?
Jakobi Meyers
Where we started: Pick 200
Where are we now: Pick 150
Why the rise? Both NBC Sports Boston's Tom Curran and The Boston Herald's Andrew Callahan expect Meyers to be the No. 1 wide receiver in New England despite the additions of Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne.
Do we have it right? No
There are caveats here. Meyers earned buzz in training camp as a rookie in 2019, was the best pass-catcher on the team in 2020, and enters 2021 as the only wide receiver on the team with experience in the offense. He was always deserving of a pick inside the Top 150, so in a sense, Meyers’ ADP is now where it belongs.
While you won’t lose your draft taking Meyers in Round 12, you will forfeit the chance to add a high-upside player to your bench. Meyers -- even as the WR1 in New England -- has no ceiling. Suppose the beat writers are correct, and Meyers leads the Patriots in targets.
Why should we care?
New England ranked 31st in pass attempts and 32nd in red-zone pass attempts in 2020, which led to Meyers scoring zero touchdowns. With Agholor, Bourne, Jonnu Smith, and Hunter Henry now competing for a slice of that tiny passing-game pie, how can you ever feel good about plugging Meyers into your starting lineup?
If you’re shopping for wide receiver help in this range of your draft, target the next player on this list in the previous round.
Parris Campbell
Where we started: Pick 151
Where are we now: Pick 135
Why the rise? Campbell said he is 100% recovered from the PCL tear that ended his 2021 season in Week 2, reminding fantasy managers of his existence.
Do we have it right? Yes
Campbell has appeared in just nine games since Indianapolis made him the 59th overall selection in the 2019 draft, but it would be lazy to call him injury-prone. Any player would have gotten hobbled on a direct hit to the knee, like the one Campbell took from Vikings safety Harrison Smith in Week 2 last year. And the broken hand that cut his rookie year short was random and has a near-zero percent chance of reoccurring.
Before the unfortunate knee injury, Campbell appeared set for a high-volume role as Indianpolis’ slot receiver. He played 82% of the Colts’ offensive snaps in Week 1, commanding a team-high nine targets (9-6-71-0). Now fully healthy, we can once again project Campbell to line up in the slot while Michael Pittman and T.Y. Hilton split out wide in three-receiver sets (the Colts' most frequent personnel grouping).
Not only should Campbell get plenty of chances to turn high-percentage catch-and-run targets into big plays, but he now has a quarterback who can take advantage of his track speed (4.31 40-yard dash) on downfield routes.
Carson Wentz has consistently thrown deep at a high rate throughout his career and showed great chemistry on downfield throws with the similarly speedy and athletic DeSean Jackson. With Hilton showing clear signs of decline entering his age-32 season, it’s possible Campbell attacks defenses vertically more often than we’re anticipating.
The upside is here for a Top 24 campaign.
Editor's Note: This article was submitted for publication before the news of Carson Wentz's foot injury broke. While a move to Jacob Eason (or another lesser quarterback) for a significant number of games would cap Campbell's upside, it might be offset by an increase in volume. One way for the Colts to manufacture yardage absent a downfield passing game is to force the ball to Campbell in space, where he can race past defenders after the catch.
Elijah Moore
Where we started: Pick 145
Where are we now: Pick 108
Why the rise? The drumbeat out of Jets’ practices grew too loud to ignore. The Athletics’ Connor Hughes called Moore the most impressive player at OTAs, new head coach Robert Saleh gushed about Moore’s spring, and incumbent slot receiver, Jamison Crowder, was forced to take a 50% pay cut to stay with the team.
Do we have it right? No
There are plenty of reasons to have high hopes for Moore’s career. NFL Draft analyst Lance Zierlein lists the rookie’s closest comparable player as Antonio Brown. Player Profiler suggests his athletic measurables and college production make Moore a close match to Tyler Lockett. And for his part, Moore’s track record at Mississippi is unassailable. He led the FBS in catches (10.8) and receiving yards (149.1) in 2020 while breaking A.J. Brown’s school record for receptions in a season.
Unfortunately, there are more reasons we should be leery of buying the hype in year one at Moore’s ever-rising ADP:
Moore is currently drafted just outside the Top 50 wide receivers. He remains cheap enough to take a flyer on, but similar to Jakobi Meyers, if Moore delivers on his ADP, it won’t help you much in fantasy.
The threshold for a Top 50 wide receiver in 2020 PPR leagues was Keelan Cole’s 149.4 fantasy points (86-55-642-5). Since 2000, only two sub-180 lbs. receivers have eclipsed that mark as rookies. Darnell Mooney (150.1) squeaked ahead of Cole last year, and DeSean Jackson (180.8) finished as the WR31 in 2008.
Moore has to be the best-undersized rookie wide receiver of the last 20 years to sniff your starting lineup. Is that a wager you want to make, especially considering it’s tied to a rookie quarterback making an extraordinary leap in level of competition? Veteran receivers selected in the same range as Moore have safer floors and higher ceilings (DeVante Parker, Russell Gage, and Marvin Jones, to name a few).
Mike Williams
Where we started: Pick 103
Where are we now: Pick 78
Why the rise? Coachspeak of the spiciest variety.
OC Joe Lombardi on WR Mike Williams: I bet he’ll have nice numbers this year #Chargers
— Gilbert Manzano (@GManzano24) June 1, 2021
Do we have it right? Yes
Sometimes deciphering coachspeak doesn’t have to be difficult. That quote from Joe Lombardi is oddly specific as it pertains to fantasy football. Here is the full context:
"If I were a betting man, I'd bet on nice numbers coming from him on the stat sheet, that's for sure," Lombardi said. "You see the talent and the size. There's no reason why he cannot be majorly productive. I've been impressed with him mentally so far, getting lined up and knowing what to do. As much as this offense will resemble New Orleans, he plays the 'X' and the ball has always kind of found the 'X' receiver in this offense. I think that there will be some natural production that comes his way because of the nature of the offense.”
Be careful not to confuse an offensive coordinator telling us his scheme will funnel targets to a specific player with run-of-the-mill, coach-driven fantasy analysis. “Draft Pierre Garcon in 2017 because he’s the starting X-receiver in a Kyle Shanahan offense” didn’t work because Garcon was a diminished version of the player he was in 2013 when he led the NFL in receptions on Shanahan’s watch in Washington.
Williams is only 26 years old and has several other factors in his favor:
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He’s a proven commodity. Maybe Williams will never quite live up to his draft stock (No. 7 overall in 2017), but he’s far from a flop. His resume includes a double-digit touchdown season (2018) and a 1,000-yard season in which he led the league in yards per reception (2019).
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His quarterback is last year’s offensive rookie of the year.
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He led the Chargers in air yards ahead of Keenan Allen last season despite finishing the year with 62 fewer targets.
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Hunter Henry leaves behind 92 targets from a year ago. A large chunk will go to Jared Cook, but enough of those looks should slide to Williams for his fantasy output to increase without converting significantly more of those unrealized air yards.
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At the very least, Williams now profiles as LA’s top option in the red zone, where Henry finished second on the team with 14 targets in 2020.
Tee Higgins
Where we started: Pick 59
Where are we now: Pick 48
Why the rise? Higgins’ ADP tanked for a bit following the Bengals selection of JaMarr Chase with the fifth overall pick in the NFL Draft. It has since bounced back after Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan said Higgins is "markedly more explosive" this summer and will play a huge role in the offense.
Do we have it right? Yes
CeeDee Lamb has generated more buzz for what he accomplished as a rookie despite losing his starting quarterback for a portion of the season. But Higgins deserves honorable mention for joining Lamb (and Justin Jefferson) on the list of first-year wideouts to eclipse 900 yards at age-21 or younger.
|
Player
|
Season
|
Age
|
Team
|
Yards
|
Games
|
Targets
|
Recs
|
TDs
|
Yds/Rec
|
Catch%
|
Yds/Trgt
|
FanPts
|
|
2020
|
21
|
MIN
|
1400
|
16
|
125
|
88
|
7
|
15.91
|
70.4%
|
11.20
|
270.2
|
|
|
Randy Moss
|
1998
|
21
|
MIN
|
1313
|
16
|
124
|
69
|
17
|
19.03
|
55.6%
|
10.59
|
302.3
|
|
2015
|
21
|
OAK
|
1070
|
16
|
130
|
72
|
6
|
14.86
|
55.4%
|
8.23
|
215
|
|
|
2014
|
21
|
TB
|
1051
|
15
|
122
|
68
|
12
|
15.46
|
55.7%
|
8.61
|
245.1
|
|
|
2013
|
21
|
SD
|
1046
|
15
|
105
|
71
|
8
|
14.73
|
67.6%
|
9.96
|
223.6
|
|
|
2014
|
21
|
BUF
|
982
|
16
|
128
|
65
|
6
|
15.11
|
50.8%
|
7.67
|
199.2
|
|
|
2020
|
21
|
DAL
|
935
|
16
|
111
|
74
|
5
|
12.64
|
66.7%
|
8.42
|
211.7
|
|
|
2017
|
21
|
PIT
|
917
|
14
|
79
|
58
|
7
|
15.81
|
73.4%
|
11.61
|
230.6
|
|
|
2020
|
21
|
CIN
|
908
|
16
|
108
|
67
|
6
|
13.55
|
62.0%
|
8.41
|
196.6
|
Chase is an alpha receiver who brings a built-in rapport with Joe Burrow from their time together at LSU, but his share of the target volume and Higgins’ are not mutually exclusive. In Burrow’s ten starts in 2020, Cincinnati averaged 40.4 pass attempts per game. Only Pittsburgh (42.6) finished as a pass-heavier team last season.
With A.J. Green’s 104 targets and team-leading 1,310 air yards now up for grabs and the Bengals defense once again shaping up as one of the league’s worst, Higgins and Chase are a rare duo from the same team who can both finish inside the top-12 fantasy wide receivers.
