An important aspect of fantasy football is getting ahead of the curve in player values. We've listed and highlighted some players who show a change in value and let you know what to do with them in Week 7's "Three Up, Three Down" article.
Three Up
A.J. Brown: After Monday Night’s thrilling upset over the Buffalo Bills, A.J. Brown’s acquisition cost has gone up a smidge. But there’s still an opportunity to buy low on one of the league’s brightest stars. Throughout his first two seasons, volume was the main thing holding him back. As a rookie, Brown averaged 5.3 targets per game. In 2020, he saw 7.6. As a whole this year, he’s averaging 6.8, but that doesn’t tell the entire story. Brown was knocked out in the first quarter of Week 3’s matchup. After sitting for Week 4, he returned to action in Week 5, playing a limited role. He’s played more than 65% of the snaps in just three games this season and has seen 8, 9, and 9 targets in those matchups, coming out to 8.7 targets per game. Chalk up his first two games as nothing more than struggles in a new offense and the next three weeks as lost to injury. He looked like his dominant self on Monday, despite being questionable for the matchup with a food poisoning scare. The team played to his strength, running him on crossing patterns for 8-of-9 targets. That change in usage allowed him to have his best game of the season. Because of his slow start, the needle hasn’t moved much from Monday’s game. But Brown is trending in the right direction. Here's a quick video that dives deeper into Brown's early-season struggles.
Joe Mixon: When drafting Mixon this season, you were hoping for increased usage in the passing game. That’s exactly what he saw in Week 6. Against an underrated Detroit Lions defense, Mixon hauled in 5-of-6 targets or 59 yards, scoring one touchdown. He added 18 carries for 94 yards and another touchdown, finishing as the RB4 in PPR leagues. What’s best about this statline is that he did it on just 62% of his team’s snaps, painting the picture for an even higher ceiling as the season progresses and his snaps go up. When excluding his Week 5 outing (where he played just 28% of the snaps due to injury), Mixon has seen a minimum of 18 touches per game. He’s the RB12 in PPR scoring, and the commitment to the run shown by the Bengals has him valued as an RB1 in all formats, despite some offseason concerns. There is always a bit of hesitation regarding Mixon’s health, but his usage in Week 6 as a dual-threat running back is exactly what his managers wanted when they drafted him.
Jaylen Waddle: We already saw a bit of pop from Waddle in Week 3, but finding paydirt twice in Week 6 is going to justifiably make his value skyrocket. The rookie receiver saw a team-high 13 targets while playing a season-high 93% of the snaps and setting personal bests with 70 yards and two touchdowns. Will Fuller is expected back this week, but Waddle has established himself as a force on this Dolphins squad and won’t be phased out. He’s leading the team with 49 targets through six weeks and is showing that ability to rack up yards after the catch (YAC). He’s ranked 13th in YAC among all wide receivers, despite eight of the guys seeing more targets. Among players with 45-plus targets, Waddle is ranked number one overall in catch rate. Being sure-handed and picking up hard-nosed yards after the catch is a great way to gain more looks. This year’s sixth overall pick is standing out early on a crowded Dolphins’ roster and should only trend up from here. Ja’Marr Chase is putting together a historic rookie season, but don’t let that distract you from Waddle’s impressive start in Miami.
Three Down
Jerry Jeudy: Confused as to how someone expected to return from IR can be trending down? Well, it has nothing to do with Jeudy and more to do with the re-emergence of Courtland Sutton. After Sutton’s stumbles in camp due to an ACL tear recovery, Jeudy had every opportunity to run away with Denver’s WR1 job. In Week 1, Jeudy outpaced Sutton in targets, seven to three, before finding himself on IR with an ankle injury. Over the last few weeks though, Sutton has shown a full recovery from his injury and returned to form as a dominant receiver. Since Week 3, he’s seen an uptick in targets every single week. He pulled 15-of-25 targets for 214 yards over the last two weeks while seeing an elite 30.1% targetshare. Jeudy will take on a secondary role in this offense behind Sutton. While he can still be serviceable in fantasy football, he’s unlikely to live up to his draft stock and will lack consistency week-to-week. Jeudy’s return may have a negative impact on Tom Patrick, but Sutton has done enough to solidify his role. Although Sutton and Jeudy were being drafted side-by-side in the offseason, the job appears to be Sutton’s.
Randall Cobb: Nostalgic flashbacks made Cobb a waiver wire darling after his two-touchdown performance in Week 4. But he has seen a decrease in production and usage across the board since. Cobb made a career out of torching the Chicago Bears’ defense but didn’t see a single target in Sunday’s win while playing just 39% of the snaps. Allen Lazard has seen an uptick in usage in all but two weeks this season as he recovers from last year’s core surgery, and that is making Cobb’s role obsolete. The allure of a vintage Rodgers-Cobb connection was understandable, but it’s time to cut the veteran receiver and let him clog up someone else’s roster.
Nyheim Hines: After being a jack of all trades in 2020 and finishing as the RB15, Hines’ role on the Colts is diminishing quickly. Jonathan Taylor has earned the role as a workhorse back and has seen an uptick in snap percentage in each game since Week 2. In addition to Taylor’s increased role, Marlon Mack has bounced back from an Achilles tear and has seen a decent amount of work. That leaves little behind for Hines, who has just 15 touches in his last three games. At best, Hines’ production will be very tough to predict and highly sporadic. At worst, he’s limited to about five touches and 15 yards per game with the occasional touchdown. Last year, much of Hines’ value derived from 76 targets from Philip Rivers, third-most among all running backs. This year, he’s seen just 21 total, which comes out to 17th-most in the league. Hines is also displaying a downward trend as Taylor’s usage spikes. After 16 targets in his first three outings, Hines has seen just five over his last three. He’s worth a stash in deeper leagues due to his upside in the event of a teammate’s injury, but he shouldn’t be anywhere near your starting lineup.
