An important aspect of fantasy football is getting ahead of the curve in player values. We've listed and highlighted some players who show a change in value and let you know what to do with them in Week 12's "Three Up, Three Down" article.
Three Up
DAndre Swift: Swift has been fantastic in his sophomore campaign. Though Week 11, he’s the RB5 in PPR scoring. So why is he trending up? Is his ceiling even higher than that? Well, overall Swift has been remarkable this year. But his production up until recently had been a bit hot and cold. Not to mention, the majority of his scoring came through the air, despite his designation as a running back. In Week 10, Swift set a career-high with 130 yards on the ground. In Week 11, Jamaal Williams returned from an injury. While many predicted that it would cut into Swift’s mammoth workload as a rusher, Swift went on to set a new career-high with 136 yards! Before that last two weeks, Swift had failed to crack more than 51 rushing yards in a single game. His blow-up over the last couple of weeks proves that he is more than capable as a professional runner. Swift has averaged 6.7 targets per game, leading all NFL running backs. In PPR leagues, we know how valuable targets to a running back can be. His transition from a garbage-time PPR machine to one of the best rushers in the league pushes him firmly into RB1 territory for the remainder of the season. Williams should be nothing more than a backup going forward as Swift takes on the role as the team’s designated workhorse. It wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to see Swift getting drafted as a top-five running back next season.
Elijah Mitchell: It might be a bit weird having a running back that missed last week in the “Up” section, but San Fransisco’s deployment of running backs in Week 11 shows just how valuable Mitchell is to this team. Through his first seven games, Mitchell averaged a whopping 4.83 yards per carry. Over the last two weeks, Jeff Wilson has mustered up a pedestrian 2.69. In Mitchell’s Week 11 absence, Deebo Samuel was relied on heavily as a runner, seeing a season-high eight carries and a season-low two targets. After beating out Trey Sermon in the offseason, it should be pretty clear that Mitchell is the preferred back for this Kyle Shanahan offense. However, the lack of efficiency and lean on Samuel last week indicates that he should see his full workload when he returns from injury. Typically, Shanahan prefers a workhorse back, even if it changes week to week. There’s no reason to expect that anyone besides Mitchell retains that workhouse role going forward. This year, Mitchell has come on as one of the steals in fantasy football and should be relied on as a high-upside RB2 any time he takes the field.
Pat Freiermuth: Freirmuth has scored a lot of touchdowns recently (four in five games), but his usage projects for that rate to continue. The rookie got off to a slow start this year, which is expected for first-year tight ends. Through his first five games as a pro, he saw more than two targets in just two games. However, since Week 6, Freiermuth has been garnering 7.2 targets per game. Only Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson have seen that type of volume on the year. Freiermuth has yet to see a breakout game from a yardage standpoint, but he has become Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite red-zone target. Over the last four weeks, Freiermuth is tied with Najee Harris for the most looks inside the 20-yard line. He saw a season-high four red-zone targets in Week 11 and can be relied on as a TE1 in all formats going forward. From a dynasty standpoint, he’s one of the hottest players to acquire.
Three Down
Terry McLaurin: Overall, McLaurin is the WR17 in PPR leagues this year. On the surface, it looks like he’s coming up just shy of his draft position, but nothing abhorrent. However, inconsistent quarterback play is making his weekly volatility pretty difficult to stomach. Through ten games, McLaurin has been as boom-or-bust as they come. In four games, he’s logged 100-plus yards and at least one touchdown. In the other six games, he’s failed to register a single touchdown or top 62 yards. League managers that targeted McLaurin this year were hoping that his mammoth target share would provide him a safe weekly floor. Unfortunately, though, a regressing defense and spotty quarterback play is causing the complete opposite to happen. While the trade deadline has already passed in many leagues, trying to ship him off for a most consistent asset before playoffs wouldn’t be a bad idea. McLaurin’s weekly averages in targets, yards, yards per reception, catch rate, and target share are almost identical compared to last year. There’s a chance that he can regress to a more consistent weekly output, but the defense and quarterback woes are enough to consider moving away from him.
Trey Lance: Lance making this list is much more of a testament to Jimmy Garoppolo’s recent play that it is a slight towards Lance. Garoppolo has been on fire for the last four weeks, supporting an impressive 6:1 TD:INT ratio and averaging 251.5 yards per game. He also stumbled in for a pair of rushing touchdowns. From a fantasy standpoint, he’s the QB3 over that time behind just Justin Herbert and Josh Allen. This is excellent news for the 49ers and Garoppolo, who got off to a slow start this season. Through Weeks 1-7, Garoppolo and the 49ers were 2-3. Since Week 8, they’re 3-1. With the 49ers heating up and Garoppolo commanding the field, that leaves little opportunity for Lance to get a shot at the starting job this year. There’s no denying Lance’s athletic ability, and his long-term outlook is the league leaves plenty to be excited about. He remains a great stash in dynasty leagues, but he’s droppable in all redraft leagues.
T.J. Hockenson: After the first two weeks in the season, Hockenson looked like he was going to end up in the top tier of fantasy tight ends. With a weak receiver corps in Detroit, Hockenson seemed primed for a breakout season. Many analysts focused on Jared Goff’s penchant for targeting tight ends, and it was easy to make a case for him as a draft-day target. Those who spent a mid-round pick on Hockenson were pleased when he saw 20 targets over his first two weeks. He turned that opportunity into 16 receptions for 163 yards and two touchdowns, averaging a whopping 23.2 PPR points per game. Since then though, there hasn’t been much to get excited about. Hockenson is scoreless through his last eight games. His per-game fantasy output over that span is 9.0 fantasy points per game and he ranks as the TE17. His 6.6 targets are promising, but he’s failed to be effective with his looks. On the season, he’s averaging 9.2 yards per reception, which ranks 25th among tight ends. Guys like Austin Hooper, Gerald Everett, Jonnu Smith, and Jack Doyle are picking up more yards per catch. Hockenson is a well-rounded tight end, and that’s what caused him to get drafted in this first round just a few years ago. But he has failed to step up as a dominant pass-catcher or someone that’s able to rack up yards after the catch. His usage is enticing, but his lack of efficiency pushes him towards the back-half of TE1s going forward.
