An important aspect of fantasy football is getting ahead of the curve in player values. We've listed and highlighted some players who show a change in value and let you know what to do with them in Week 11's "Three Up, Three Down" article.
Three Up
Darrel Williams: It’s hard not to buy into some narratives that are consistently proved to be wrong. So often, a team’s lead running back goes down and we convince ourselves that their backup has done well enough in relief that they deserve more touches. However, it seldom happens. This situation feels different though, doesn’t it? Not only has Williams passed the eye test, but the Chiefs are winning again. With Edwards-Helaire as the lead back, the Chiefs went 2-3 (with an admittedly tough schedule). Since his injury, they’re 4-1. Williams isn’t the sole reason for the Chiefs getting hot, but you’ve got to imagine that they’ll stick with what’s been working. Edwards-Helaire is averaging more yards per rushing attempt, but Williams has looked great in the passing game, seeing almost three times as many targets per game as Edwards-Helaire did when starting. In addition to the targets, he’s proved to be a more-than-capable pass-blocker and finishes nicely at the goal line. Edwards-Helaire is expected back soon and should take over the reins as the starter, but you shouldn’t expect Williams to disappear. Even when Edwards-Helaire was healthy in Weeks 1-5, Williams saw an uptick in snaps every week. Over that same time, Edwards-Helaires’ snaps were diminishing weekly. Expect to see Edwards-Helaire take his early-down work back. But don’t be surprised if Williams takes over as the passing-down and goal-line back, both of which provide a lot of value in fantasy.
DARREL WILLIAMS LOOKING LIKE A WR. #ChiefsKingdom
— NFL (@NFL) November 15, 2021
📺: #KCvsLV on NBC
📱: https://t.co/FF7Rvmy1OI pic.twitter.com/A0EwSefKng
DeVonta Smith: JaMarr Chase and Jaylen Waddle were the only receivers taken ahead of Smith in this year’s draft, and they’re the only rookies with more targets through Week 10. The Eagles’ wide receiver usage has been heavily funneled towards Smith this year, as he’s responsible for 47.6% of the corps’ targets. Over the last two weeks, he’s come on and been able to showcase his ability as a fantastic route runner. He’s seen 12 looks over that time, which he’s converted into nine catches for 182 yards and three scores while scoring more fantasy points than any other receiver in the league. Unfortunately, the Eagles are playing at a brutally slow pace this year, averaging just 60.4 offensive plays per game. Their pace is sixth-worst in the NFL. Hurts’ penchant for running and heavily targeting tight ends and running backs gives Smith a low weekly floor. Still, he’s the clearcut WR1 on this team and has regularly displayed the ability to dust defenders in space. He’s got a massive slice of a pretty small pie, which will give him some weekly volatility. However, his ceiling has been shown over the last couple of weeks, and he can be relied on as a high-end boom-or-bust WR2 going forward.
Dan Arnold: Every now and then, we see a player go to a new team and completely turn their career around. At just 26 years old, Arnold is still young with a long hopeful career ahead of him. After going undrafted in 2018, he was signed by the Saints and spent the next few years moving around the league. His 6-foot-5 frame and abilities as a receiver are sought after by front offices everywhere, but no team had been able to extract much production from him. Since Arnold joined the league in 2018, he bounced around between the Saints, Cardinals, and Panthers. Over that stretch, he averaged 2.6 targets per game for 1.7 receptions and 23.5 yards over 24 outings. Over his last five weeks with the Jaguars though, Arnold has garnered 7.4 targets per game while seeing seven-plus in four-of-five games. That’s an enormous uptick in usage from what Arnold had been receiving previously. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to turn that into much production as he’s scoreless through five games. The good news is that it opens up a small window to buy low on Arnold right now before he regresses to a league-normal touchdown rate. Arnold is seeing elite usage right now as a tight end and provides a high floor. Despite scoring zero touchdowns over the last five weeks, Arnold is still putting up TE1 numbers. At this point, he’s arguably the only pass-catcher in Jacksonville that you can start with confidence. He should be considered a must-start at fantasy football's most unpredictable position.
Three Down
Christian McCaffrey: We have to be honest with ourselves regarding McCaffrey. He was a cheat code in PPR fantasy football leagues in 2019. But he has been trending down since the start of last year. Injuries have been piling up on the shifty and powerful back after seeing a heavy workload through the first few years of his career. After returning from a hamstring injury this Week 9, McCaffrey was limited to just 49-percent of the team’s snaps. In Week 10, his usage was up, but he spent some time on the sidelines nursing his hamstring. Going back to the start of last season, McCaffrey has been unable to play in more than three consecutive games. However, the biggest impediment to his success now is the return of Cam Newton to Carolina. Through McCaffrey’s five years in the league, he’s suited up for 56 games. He played 33 games with Newton and totaled 22 touchdowns in those outings. In the 23 games he’s played with other quarterbacks, he’s racked up a whopping 24 scrimmage touchdowns. To sum that up, his touchdown rate is over 50-pecent higher without Newton as it is with him. Newton is one of the best goal-line weapons of all time, and that takes away a big chunk of McCaffrey’s fantasy value. Not only is that concerning, but Newton targeted McCaffrey at a lower rate than other quarterback in Carolina. Newton is coming off 12 rushing touchdowns last season, the highest total since his rookie season. His usage as a goal-line quarterback, just days after signing with the Panthers, shows how this coaching staff values his talents. While McCaffrey is a locked and loaded RB1, he probably isn’t the unanimous “best player in fantasy football” that he was touted as this offseason.
TWO PLAYS. TWO TOUCHDOWNS FOR CAM!
— NFL (@NFL) November 14, 2021
📺: #CARvsAZ on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/fIhBfFbDUR
Justin Herbert: Herbert started this season picking up right where he left off as a rookie: hushing naysayers by dominating on the field. Through Week 5, Herbert was the QB5. He averaged 315.2 yards through the air, completed 67-percent of his passes, and supported an impressive 13:3 TD:INT ratio. A tough Week 6 loss against the Ravens started a stretch where the Chargers have lost three of their last four games. Over that sample, Herbert has been the QB16 in points per game. His yardage per game is 242.3, he’s completing 63-percent of his passes, and his TD:INT ratio fell to an ugly 6:4. He’s trending down, but there’s no reason for major concern yet. Herbert had a similar slump last year from Weeks 12-14 before bouncing back and finishing the season on a tear. The reason it’s worth highlighting him as a “Three down” candidate is that this could open up a buy-low window from a panicking Herbert manager. Herbert is surrounded by a great cast of pass-catchers: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Jared Cook. Newly-appointed head coach Brandon Staley is proving early on to be a great hire. At just 23 years old, expect some ups and downs from Herbert. He has a tough matchup next week against the Steelers but gets the Lions and Bengals the following weeks, setting the stage for a potential bounceback. While he is technically trending down for now, it shouldn’t last long, and he makes for a good trade target.
J.D. McKissic: The gamescript in Sunday’s game against the Buccaneers was projected to work in McKissic’s favor. It seems like the Buccaneers would take the lead and McKissic would get plenty of work as a pass-catcher. Instead, the Football Team took an early lead and failed to let it slip once until the clock struck 0:00. That upset led to Antonio Gibson seeing a career-high 24 carries while the team bled the clock in the second half. McKissic has a high ceiling, as evidenced in his big performances against the Chiefs and Broncos, but those games are becoming extraordinarily sporadic and brutal to predict. Like last year, Washington’s strength is in their defense (despite a slow start), and this team’s best chance to win games comes when they can grind the clock. At 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds, Gibson is perfect for that role. McKissic is used almost exclusively when trailing. If this win turns Washington’s season around, that could mean a diminished role is looming for McKissic. The team hinted in the offseason that Gibson could be in line for a Christian McCaffrey-level workload. While that has been proved to be a bit of an exaggeration, Gibson is playing better by the week. In Sunday’s win, McKissic saw his lowest snap share since Week 1 and makes for a risky start going forward.
