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The league continues to throw us curve balls on a weekly basis. Whether it happens through injuries or shifts in usage, after each week, we’re left with new puzzle pieces to fit together. And sometimes the pieces don’t even go to the puzzle we were given the week before. I’m constantly fascinated by how things change each week, but, like you, I’d also like to know these things ahead of time! Or, at least how to approach these situations moving forward. To help, here are three lessons I took away from last week and my thoughts on each.

Quarterback: Carson Wentz, Colts

Week 5 Results: (Projected) 18.2, (Actual) 22.6

Frank Reich’s reclamation project hasn’t gone exactly as planned. Carson Wentz entered the season injured. The injury bug has extended to some of the pass catchers and offensive linemen. And Week 5 ended in a demoralizing overtime loss. With all that said, Wentz played his best football this season on Monday night. He took some hits, lost a fumble, but still reached a career-high in passing yards. The performance was worth a closer look under the hood to see what’s changed and if Wentz is with an add as a streamer.

Advice Moving Forward:

Wentz moves from the "In Case of Emergency Break Glass" category to match-up-based starter over the next quarter of the season.

Of course, the lesson learned from the Monday night game is that Lamar Jackson is the MVP. But, in the shadow of Jackson’s crown, we can a string of viable fantasy performances from Wentz. His matchups through the first five weeks wouldn’t lead us to consider him as an option. Plus, his injuries and the injuries to his receivers weren’t confidence builders. But Wentz hasn’t been a complete disaster through five weeks.

The passing rate and efficiency within the Colts offense have steadily improved each week despite Wentz being constantly under fire. Indianapolis’ once-vaunted offensive line has been wracked with injuries and Wentz hasn’t necessarily helped with a below-average time to throw. But he averaged 230 yards and at least a score prior to Monday giving him some sort of floor without providing much on the ground. As long as he remains healthy, his schedule provides some boost to his fantasy value.

San Francisco is the only matchup that gives me pause. Otherwise, Wentz meets most of the criteria we’d considering for a streaming quarterback. He’ll be at home for four of his next five games. Likely favored (or at least not a huge underdog) in most. Plus, the defenses he’ll be facing have either weak secondaries or haven’t generated much pressure. For Houston, it’s both. Overall, his opponents have combined to allowed 11 QB1 performances through five weeks. With bye weeks upon us, Wentz looks like a solid streaming option given the right week.

Running Back: A.J. Dillon

Week 5 Results: (Projected) 7.0, (Actual) 17.9

The “zeroRB” zealots were cackling as, not Aaron Jones, but AJ Dillon took a 12-yard reception into the end zone. Drafting Dillon was always about the contingent value he had as the complement to Jones. Even if Jones remains healthy, Dillon’s usage as the closer or in short-yardage situations will yield fantasy points. But now he’s seeing more than two targets. We have a solid RB2 on our hands! Well, before we lock Dillon into our starting rosters, I took a closer look at his Week 5 usage along with his opportunity profile to date to add some context to the (albeit promising) situation.

Advice Moving Forward:

Dillon is an RB3/FLEX play or bye-week fill-in until we see a demonstrable change in his workload.

I say this and I’m sure I’ll just get buried by folks remembering this tweet from Monday.

Look. I’m as excited to see Dillon get more work as the next person. No, really. Maybe not as much as Packers fans since I root for Cincinnati and he’s part of the reason they lost, but still. My process has always been to let the data and the surrounding context guide my thoughts. And, through five weeks, Dillon doesn’t profile as a player seeing a shift in their workload indicating we should boost his value.

The dwindling snap share compared to last week I can wave away. Like I talked about with Cordarrelle Patterson last week, snaps can be determined (either prior to or during the game) by the coaching staff. Targets and carries are another story. Dillon scored his receiving touchdown on the Packers’ first drive in the second quarter. He received two more targets that quarter and wasn’t targeted again. From the box score, we can easily see pick out a bump in targets hare. But it’s not like he was asked to do more as a receiver in the game. Also, focusing on Week 5 specifically, let’s look at how he was used in crunch time.

Again, the box score will show 18 touches for Aaron Jones and 12 for Dillon. But let’s contextualize those touches. All 12 came while the game was still close indicating the base gameplan features Dillon. That’s good! But he had just one touch inside of two minutes and didn’t see the field in overtime. Meanwhile, Jones had more touches in both situations. So, when the Packers truly need to get the ball down the field, Jones’ role is secure.

Production spikes aren’t always an indication of what’s to come. Peripheral metrics like opportunity shares with some added context can be a better indicator of how a team wants to deploy its players. Does Matt LaFleur really want to use Dillon more? I’m sure he does! But to say that will immediately happen next week is difficult to trust given his current usage profile.

Wide Receiver: Cole Beasley, Bills

Week 5 Results: (Projected) 12.9, (Actual) 1.5

If something happens one time, we can shrug it off. Two times it can be a coincidence. But, three times makes a trend. We’re not quite there with Cole Beasley but it’s getting close. Schematically, the Bills’ offense has been the same. They’re still running multiple-receiver sets on a majority of their passing plays and Josh Allen has been towards the top of the league in passing rate. But Beasley’s been the odd man out since Week 3. Fantasy managers are struggling to square his measly four targets in what’s been productive days for Allen and some of his other pass-catchers. I took a closer at what has changed for the Buffalo offense and if we can trust the veteran slot receiver moving forward.

Advice Moving Forward:

Beasley is a bench stash for now. His overall team situation makes him roster-able but doesn’t even have FLEX appeal with his current usage.

The first few weeks went as expected for Beasley and the Bills’ offense in general. They were top-10 in pass rate over expectation (PROE). Beasley held a 23.6% target share and he was 27th in PPR scoring without even scoring a touchdown. His usage indicated the touchdowns were coming so all was right with the world. Then the world got flipped upside down.

I’m as surprised as you are. My offseason prior was Emmanuel Sanders would challenge Beasley for targets. They’re both deployed out of the slot and savvy route runners. Camp reports raved about Sanders’ quick connection with Josh Allen but the offense should have been pass-heavy enough for the two to be productive. Dawson Knox’s ascension just wasn’t on my radar.

I’m sure we can retrofit any narrative into why Knox is a larger part of the offense after being a dud the first two seasons, but it is funny in retrospect. Even back in college, he wasn’t much of a blocking tight end. However, we couldn’t gauge his receiving skills because he was buried at Ole Miss. Yes, the same college that gave us D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Elijah Moore, and the list keeps going. But it’s his third season (when tight-ends tend to breakout) and he’s established himself as a new piece to the Bills’ offense. Sanders has done the same.

The targets have obviously been there for Sanders, but it’s the type of targets that caught my attention. At 34 years of age, I didn’t expect him to be second on the team in downfield targets. It was John Brown’s and Gabriel Davis' role throughout 2020. Now, Sanders has nearly supplanted Diggs as the deep target while still seeing work in the short and intermediate areas of the field. All at Beasley’s expense.

Beasley’s targets aren’t what concern me. Targets can vary week to week and, while they’re earned, there’s nothing to suggest a drop-off in his ability to create separation (10th in average separation) or rapport with Allen. His routes run and snaps do. He’s run fewer routes each week and his snaps have dropped from 66% to 39% since Week 3. Buffalo’s offense is clicking without him and their upcoming schedule (TEN, MIA, JAX, and NYJ) doesn’t suggest they’ll be pressed into needing him. Josh Allen’s attempted 56 passes in two weeks. Just four have gone to Beasley. Unless you need him, he’s safer on your bench.