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There was a ton of action this week with much of the news focusing on injuries. A number of key players left their games early and we’ll all likely be monitoring practice reports. However, we’ve still got waiver claims to make or trades to consider. With big performances in a single week, it’s easy to get caught up in the boxscore and assume we’ll see similar numbers again. But we need to contextualize each to know for sure. I detail three lessons from this past week to consider ahead of Week 4.

Quarterback: Derek Carr, Raiders

Week 3 Results: (Projected) 21.6, (Actual) 22.2

I honestly don’t know what to make of the Raiders. It’s been an incredible ride watching their games. They win in overtime to close out Week 1 and then have to fly across the country to play Pittsburgh. General consensus was that after such an emotional win in Week 1 they’d come out flat against the Steelers. We were wrong. They’re still undefeated after another overtime game against Miami and Derek Carr sits at the center of it all. The quarterback we avoided in drafts but has scored more points than at least four passers drafted ahead of him. I took a look at what’s fueled his turn around and what to do with him moving forward.

Advice Moving Forward:

Carr is a fringe top-12 quarterback for the rest of the season. If he’s on the waiver wire and you have space, he’d be an excellent bye-week filler with positive matchups extending into the fantasy playoffs.

We almost have to retrain our minds now. Myself included. It’s why I said “fringe top-12” despite him being comfortably inside the Top 12 through Week 3. Subjectively, we can feel the rug being pulled out from under us after we buy into this Raiders’ passing game. But, to be honest, the signs were there for some time.

With every piece of analysis, the glaring caveat is time. We’re only through three weeks. But, with the team undefeated, what’s their incentive to change? An answer may come over the next three weeks with divisional contests on the schedule but a pass-happy Raiders’ offense is what we’ve got. And, it’s not just the sheer volume but who’s getting used (or not used enough) in the process.

In 2020, through three weeks, just three players had a target share north of 10% (Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and, surprisingly, Josh Jacobs). Now, five players sit on the list with Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards taking their much-needed sophomore step forward. It’s turned an efficient offense into an offense with punch. A passing attack we can invest in on a weekly basis. We just needed Carr to maintain his natural ability to get the ball where it needed.

Despite the ridicule, Carr isn’t a bad passer. He closed out the 2020 season 9th in EPA per Play and 15th in CPOE. He had 6 games with over 300 passing yards and 10 games with 2 or more touchdowns. But he couldn’t maintain a top-12 rank for more than two weeks at a time. I used just last year’s data as a proxy, but he was right in line with the league in terms of deep-ball efficiency. If the stars would align, and by stars, I mean key personnel being healthy, we’d see it in his overall passing production.

According to Pro Football Focus, Carr leads the league in yards on passes of 20 air yards or more with 2 touchdowns. He’s averaging 401 passing yards per game on a career-high 9.1 adjusted yards per attempt. And, it’s not like he’s faced simple defensive secondaries. We may learn more over the coming weeks, but Carr should be an every-week consideration even in single-quarterback leagues.

Running Back: Derrick Henry, Titans

Week 3 Results: (Projected) 20.7, (Actual) 19.4

By now, you probably know I approach fantasy analysis through an analytical lens. Data trends help me visualize a path, but I can form a blind spot around that path. Henry’s range of outcomes coming into the season was simple. No running back with his workload last year has duplicated their production in over a decade. And, without any passing game usage, he couldn’t meet his draft ADP. But Henry’s earning targets and still showcasing his breakaway speed. Even with just a few games to look over, it’s time we re-evaluate Henry and what to do with him moving forward.

Advice Moving Forward:

Derrick Henry is a locked-in RB1 with an upside case that most didn’t see coming into the season. His short-term schedule (Jets, Jaguars, Bills) is worth opening negotiations for him now, or look for mid-season trades with an eye on the playoffs (Steelers, 49ers, Dolphins).

It’s not just the Henry has resumed his 2020 workload without any sign of slowing down, but how it’s expanded. Of course, we’ll take his 93.0% team rushing share (behind only Najee Harris). But his passing game usage has many of us rethinking our preseason approach to Henry.

A glance at his boxscore would show he has 13 targets. A quick calculation would equate those targets to 19.7% target share. Derrick Henry doesn’t catch passes! This can’t be! We theorized all offseason that Darrynton Evans or Jeremy McNichols would leach away any upside should the Titans fall behind. However, we’re yet to see it. If anything, Henry’s deployment so far suggests we’re just scratching the surface.

Targets are obviously what we want, but a variety of factors lead to a player actually getting a target. One of which is how often they’re running a route. While not a direct correlation, the fact that Henry has run more routes each week should be encouraging for how the team wants to use him. Not just as a way to set up the passing game, but as an extension of it.

But, the easiest way to push back on this notion is by trying to knock the types of routes he runs. It would stand to reason that a player with his frame would be used on passes behind the line of scrimmage. An easy way to get him the ball with a clear runway. Not a “real” pass-catching running back. While that may have been true last season, it’s definitely not the case now.

Sports Info Solutions had route types for each one that he has run, and verifying it with play-by-play data from nflfastR confirmed my suspicion. For all of Todd Downing’s faults, he’s turned Derrick Henry into a legitimate weapon. While he’s seen the highest route-to-target utilization ratio on screen passes, the majority of his routes and targets have been downfield. An average of 3.6 air yards downfield (about the distance of a pass from Ben Roethlisberger) but past the line of scrimmage nonetheless. He’s run Curl, Out, and Dig routes. It’s a complete 180-degree shift from where he was at last season.

Now, I get it. It’s just been three games. But he’s on pace for 289 routes which blows past his 2020 total of 206. His 13 targets already account for half of last year’s total. He has one target in the red zone. We almost expect him to break off a 60-yard touchdown run on a weekly basis. Imagine social media the day he gets a receiving touchdown (his first since 2019). Given the trend, we’ll see it sooner rather than later. Go get him if you can.

Wide Receiver: Christian Kirk, Cardinals

Week 3 Results: (Projected) 10.0, (Actual) 17.4

Most of us are probably regretting passing on Kyler Murray during our drafts. But we gained exposure to Murray through his offensive personnel. We had options this year! DeAndre Hopkins held his early-round ADP, but the remaining receivers were mid to late-round picks at best. However, choosing the right Cardinals’ receiver is like investing in a 49ers’ running back. You may like them, but snaps and targets have fluctuated each week. I know Christian Kirk is the title for this section, but I wanted to take a moment to look at the Cardinals’ passing game as a whole. I lean Kirk, but some of you may find reasons to like the others more.

Advice Moving Forward:

Barring health, DeAndre Hopkins is still the primary option. However, out of the ancillary options, Kirk (and Green) is the most stable option on a weekly basis.

Rostering one of the Cardinals’ receivers is like having a pass catcher from the Buccaneers, Rams, or Cowboys. There’s a passing touchdown coming each week. Likely more than one. But each squad has plenty of options making it hard on a weekly basis. And with Arizona, it’s worse! Kyler has a rushing touchdown in every game this season. But let’s focus on his passing tendencies to lay out my case.

Unfortunately, the #HorizontalRaid is still alive and well. At least Week 3 gave us a slight shift towards the intermediate area of the field. But, Murray’s 8.0 average intended air yards per pass is something left to be desired. Regardless, it’s kept his receivers busy.

Kirk is the only receiver to see his routes per dropback steadily rise each week. Even in Week 2, when he had just 4 targets, he was on the field for a larger share of the snaps. As a result, he’s created a floor for himself.

Green’s routes per dropback now look like wind sprints as Kirk has out-targeted Green on fewer routes in two of their three games. And, even with Moore’s explosiveness, he hasn’t been able to maintain a consistent role. It all just points us back to Kirk.

He runs 90.4% of his routes out of the slot and is tied for the lead in red-zone targets. Kirk is also the only receiver on the team with a near 30% target share at every level of the field past the line of scrimmage. He already showed his touchdown upside in Week 1 and is yet to have less than 50 yards in a single game. Short-term production aside, the floor and ceiling combination is worth the risk as a WR3. I’m still taking the long view on Moore, but it’s Kirk’s time for now.