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The first couple weeks of the fantasy season can be dangerous for fantasy fans. We’re all trying to win. We all want to be right. Any deviation from those two things shake up our reality. It forces us to react. And, with waivers running on Tuesdays, and a game two days later, we have little time to do so.

Sweeping generalizations or extrapolations on players have become casually accepted after just two games. We still have three months to go! So, even if you’re staring at an 0-2 start to the season, here are a few lessons I took from Week 2 and how I’m approaching them as we continue to learn more.

Quarterback: Kirk Cousins, Vikings

Week 1 Results: (Projected) 19.2, (Actual) 25.3

Kirk Cousins has perennially been a popular waiver wire target. He’s the perfect bye week band-aid. Even before Minnesota drafted Justin Jefferson, Cousins had 14 games with at least 250 yards and averaged 2.4 touchdowns in those contests. He’s been the poster boy for streaming quarterbacks. But, at least through two weeks, he’s been more than just a QB2.

Cousins is the QB10 after hot starts against the Bengals and Cardinals. We’ll certainly take the production (297.5 YPG and 2.5 TDs), but it’s the overall volume that caught my eye. We’re talking about the same quarterback that opened a season with just 10 attempts not two seasons ago. The same offense philosophy and coaching staff that’s kept them at the bottom of the league in terms of passing. However, we may need to adjust our stance on the Cousins and the historically conservative offense.

Advice Moving Forward:

Kirk Cousins should be considered as a fringe QB1 moving forward. Unless you have a legitimate starter, Cousins should be in your lineup.

At a high level schematically, the Vikings appear to be the same.

The slight uptick in volume across the board has been great. Improvements across the offensive line have been even better. Minnesota had the seventh-highest adjusted sack rate last year and Cousins has been sacked just 4 times on 87 dropbacks so far. The real story is in the personnel additions to round out an already stellar core.

Minnesota ran 11 personnel (three wide receiver sets) at the lowest rate in the league according to Sharp Football Stats. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen were the only game in town. It made our fantasy decisions easier, but the offense more fragile and hinging on explosive plays. Now, the Vikings have used 11 personnel on 53% of their plays. Ancillary options like K.J. Osborn and Tyler Conklin have viability as bench stashes. It may come at the detriment of Jefferson and Thielen, but the playcalling and game script both benefit Cousins.

Cousins has faced pressure on just 26.2% of his dropbacks per Pro Football Focus. It’s allowed him to focus on the short and intermediate areas of the field on 87.8% of his attempts which has buoyed his overall volume. He’s averaging over 40 attempts per game to start a season since 2016. Plus, Minnesota’s secondary is in dire need of improvement.

Despite picking off Kyler Murray twice in Week 2, they’ve allowed 661 passing yards and 5 touchdowns. Only the Cowboys, Ravens, and Buccaneers have allowed more. I expected a defensive-minded head coach like Mike Zimmer to fix their coverage, but opposing offenses should be able to take advantage in the short term. As long as the line and his pass catchers stay healthy, Cousins should be in the QB1 mix on a weekly basis.

Running Back: Mike Davis, Falcons

Week 1 Results: (Projected) 12.6, (Actual) 6.3

Mike Davis has done nothing wrong. But we should be worried about him. Well, more so his situation.

Davis’ range of outcomes were a frequent debate during the offseason. His mid-round ADP placed him squarely in the “Running Back Dead Zone” which forced drafters to a decision. The choice was between the projected starter for a (likely) productive offense or a top-24 wide receiver at a similar cost. Some of the opportunity cost has been mitigated by injury or players winding up in the doghouse. But we’ve got bigger issues brewing down in Atlanta.

The Falcons have mounted six scoring drives in eight quarters of play. The Eagles and Buccaneers both had five in their games against Atlanta. Matt Ryan has more interceptions than touchdowns. It’s fair to place blame on Ryan and his adjustment to Arthur Smith. It’s also fair to assume they’ll continue to adjust the offense to find what works. But the byproduct of those adjustments has seemed to come at Davis’ expense.

Advice Moving Forward:

Mike Davis moves to a low-end RB2 with limited (no) upside. Other options should be considered as we see more from Atlanta’s offense.

If you drafted Mike Davis, this isn’t necessarily what you want to see.

Now, don’t get me wrong. A red-zone package with Cordarrelle Patterson running the Wildcat should’ve been expected at some point. Just not in Week 2. Patterson had been known across the league for his utility at multiple positions. But his level of involvement was difficult to project.

True fantasy grinders were following the breadcrumbs over the offseason. After signing Patterson in April, Atlanta’s only additional move was to sign UDFA Javian Hawkins. Arthur Smith indicated at the start of camp Mike Davis would get the first shot, but they’d continue to mix and match. Subsequently, Hawkins and Qadree Ollison were released leaving Patterson and Davis as the last men standing. If the first two weeks are any indication, Smith’s “mix and match” comment wasn’t a lie.

Davis’ red-zone role was severely diminished in favor of Patterson’s speed. Similar to the “Elliot-Pollard” debate, it’s clear who has more juice with the ball in their hands. But, unlike Dallas, Atlanta’s offense doesn’t generate enough production to warrant much attention past the line of scrimmage. Matt Ryan has just 3 attempts deep and has the sixth-highest pressure rate. Using their speedy options has been their best bet. A shift that significantly cuts into Davis’ opportunity. And it’s difficult to see how or when the tide will shift back.

In neutral situations, Davis has been the preferred early-down runner with 17 touches to Patterson’s 13. Everything just falls apart once Atlanta falls behind. They won’t be playing Tom Brady every week, but they’ve allowed 387.5 total yards to start the season. He’s still earned 18.5 touches per game, but the lack of a potential ceiling should warrant a look at your bench or the waiver wire for better options.

Wide Receiver: DK Metcalf, Seahawks

Week 1 Results: (Projected) 16.8, (Actual) 5.3

D.K. Metcalf isn’t a football player. He’s an action figure (NSFW) come to life.

And, like most of the early-round wide receivers, we expect the freakishness of their skill to translate into fantasy points. However, we’re yet to see it from the guy that looks like he graduated from the University of Wakanda.

Russell Wilson has thrown 6 touchdowns in two games and averaged nearly 300 passing yards in the process. But Metcalf has just 1 of those touchdowns. He’s yet to crack the century mark in yards during a single game this season. All the while, those that drafted Tyler Lockett are reaping the benefits. But I’m not convinced the gap in production exists for much longer.

Advice Moving Forward:

If you’re rostering Metcalf, continue to start him. If you’ve got the pieces to move, acquire him in a trade.

From an opportunity standpoint, not a lot separates the Seattle receivers.

I know that production is what we need to see on our fantasy rosters, but numbers this close are a good sign. At the very least, it’d indicate he’s in line for some of the same touchdown variance that’s gone towards Lockett. A quick film breakdown also points us in the same direction.

Let’s use Tyler Lockett’s second touchdown from Week 1 as an example. In real time, you’ll just see Lockett zoom by the deep safety for the score. Tracking tools help us see a slightly different view of the play.

Metcalf has the ability to “create gravity”. His presence pulls defenders into his orbit. The double coverage on Metcalf at the first down marker left Wilson with an easy bomb to Lockett. Ok, sure. It’s just one play. But the Seahawks did it again last week.

Lockett’s 63-yard touchdown against the Titans was set up on the play before. On first down, Wilson escaped pressure and flicked it to Metcalf on a slant route who then dragged two defenders for about 7 yards. Metcalf ran a similar route two plays later. Look at how many defenders were near Metcalf as Wilson winds up for the touchdown pass.

If anything, I’m excited for Metcalf. He saw just 13 slot targets all season last year. He already has 4 in two games. An effort to involve a guy like Metcalf on short and intermediate routes will solidify his floor and open him up to more ceiling games in the future. I’d try to acquire that sort of potential on any roster.