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A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (which can be found very late in a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the Top 150 and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Here are the players who received the most votes:
And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Russell Gage, Atlanta | Consensus Rankings WR56 | Consensus Projections WR49
Drew Davenport: A final line of 72/786/4 doesn't sound super exciting on the surface, but Gage earned these numbers with Julio Jones in town still pulling down 68 targets in nine games. At this point, it is pretty clear what Gage is as a player, but the volume he could see after Jones left could push him to the top of WR3 territory. The addition of Kyle Pitts can cut both ways for Gage, as the rookie tight end will command some targets, but having a threat like Pitts on the field should be seen as a net positive for Gage's fantasy chances. Matching and exceeding last year's 110 targets is certainly in play. That's great value for a receiver going outside the Top 150 players in a draft.
Victoria Geary: As many have mentioned, you won't find another late-round gem with as sure of a role and target share as Gage. Matt Ryan threw for 626 attempts last season, the most out of any quarterback in the league. Atlanta's defense isn't slowing anyone down this year, so Ryan and crew will need to produce again to win games. Tight end Kyle Pitts will take some of the targets Julio Jones left behind, but Gage has established a good rapport with Ryan, evidenced by his 100+ target season in 2020. He is a player that has top-30 potential up for grabs in the final rounds of your fantasy draft.
Jeff Haseley: It's not easy to find players who have already exceeded 100 targets in a season outside of the top 150. Russell Gage is one of them. Atlanta is down to Calvin Ridley and Gage as their primary wide receivers in an offense that has been in the top 5 in pass attempts each of the last three years. Arthur Smith may employ more of a run-oriented attack, but Matt Ryan isn't just going to stop passing the ball. Gage stands to benefit as the #2 wide receiver and should again reach 100+ targets.
Ryan Hester: If we do this exercise again later in the preseason, Gage probably won’t qualify as a Deep Sleeper, but for now, he’s a screaming value at his price. Gage was heavily utilized last season and steps into a bigger role in the absence of Julio Jones. Kyle Pitts will also step in and absorb some of those vacated Jones targets, but Gage and Matt Ryan already have chemistry. And Gage will see more high-value perimeter targets.
Chad Parsons: Gage saw a robust 110 targets last season, with Julio Jones missing a cross-section of game action (68 total targets). With Jones gone and the notable addition Kyle Pitts, it is tough to see Gage's volume declining this year. Look for Gage, even if he continues his low touchdown production and is mainly an aggregator in the WR3/4 zone of PPR formats.
Jason Wood: Russell Gage steps into an optimal situation with Julio Jones traded. While many will look at the addition of Kyle Pitts as a deterrent, even the best tight ends in NFL history usually struggle as rookies. Gage has Matt Ryan's trust and will have an unbridled snap share for the first time in his career. No one on the depth chart poses a threat to his starting job on the outside opposite Calvin Ridley.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Elijah Moore, NY Jets | Consensus Rankings WR71 | Consensus Projections WR60
Sigmund Bloom: Ignore the offseason drumbeat at your own risk. One beat writer described Moore as the best player on either side of the ball, and he should quickly become Zach Wilson's favorite target. The Jets defense is still a work in progress and should keep the offense in pass-happy mode, which will only add gasoline to the fire Moore is creating. He should be the first and maybe only Jets wide receiver targeted in typical drafts.
James Brimacombe: The Jets have a whole new offense, and it looks to be led by Elijah Moore at the wide receiver position as the buzz continues on the second-round pick all offseason. Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson will be looking for a go-to target in the offense, and from Day 1, it looks like there is a decent shot that it can be Moore.
Pat Fitzmaurice: As my FBG brethren Sigmund Bloom and Cecil Lammey have long professed, when there's a steady drumbeat of positive buzz about a player, pay attention. The drumbeat around Moore is starting to sound like a Keith Moon solo. It's becoming clear that the rookie from Ole Miss will displace Jamison Crowder as the Jets' primary slot man and become an essential part of the offense. My only fear is that Moore's ADP will jump accordingly when we hear the drums early in training camp.
Jason Wood: Had the Jets parted ways with Jamison Crowder, Moore's draft ADP would be many rounds higher. But Crowder's decision to take a pay cut muddies the 2021 outlook for Moore, even if his long-term outlook is bright. Yet, Crowder is hardly an iron man, and Moore has the skill set to do more on the field than Crowder could in his prime; and he's not in his prime anymore.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Nelson Agholor, New England | Consensus Rankings WR58 | Consensus Projections WR68
James Brimacombe: Agholor had a prove-it deal with the Raiders last year and did just that with his best season as a pro finishing with a 48/896/8 stat line. With the big year came some big money from the Patriots, who are desperate for wide receiver play, and now Agholor is the top guy at the position on his new team. It is not very often you have the opportunity to draft a team's top wide receiver at such a steep discount.
Pat Fitzmaurice: Forget about the years of underachievement for this former first-round draft pick. Forget about the history of untimely drops. Forget about the "unlike Agholor" meme. (Actually, that meme is still hilarious, so carry on.) The point is, Agholor was terrific for Oakland down the stretch last year, catching 30 passes for 541 yards and three touchdowns over the Raiders' last seven games. He's now the lead receiver in New England and the only legitimate vertical pass-catching threat on the roster. Agholor is well worth a late-round pick.
Andy Hicks: The wide receiver room in New England may be one of the worst in the NFL. That said, someone has to catch the ball. The Patriots didn’t sign Nelson Agholor to a big contract without good reason. He demonstrated with the Raiders last year that he is both a decent NFL receiver and a reliable fantasy option. He has finished as a bottom-end fantasy WR2 twice in his career and provides good upside in 2021 at a throwaway price.
John Brown, Las Vegas | Consensus Rankings WR60 | Consensus Projections WR67
Drew Davenport: The veteran wide receiver carousel dropped Brown off with the Raiders, where last year, Nelson Agholor posted almost 900 yards and eight touchdowns as their top target behind Darren Waller. Even if second-year wide receivers Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards take a step forward, this shouldn't be considered such a threat for targets that Brown will suffer measurably. Agholor's 82 targets last year are achievable, and Brown should be the current favorite to lead the wide receiver corps in targets. Surpassing that target number could land Brown in a position to far outperform his draft slot.
Victoria Geary: With Nelson Agholor leaving in free agency, Brown has the opportunity to emerge as the Raiders' #2 option behind Darren Waller this year. Agholor tallied seven top-30 performances last season with the Raiders, and Brown has the talent to provide a similar weekly fantasy value. Albeit a small sample size, Brown was the PPR WR9 through the first two weeks of the season in 2020 before his calf strain injury. He still has some gas left in the tank and has the perfect opportunity to outperform his late-round ADP this season.
Chad Parsons: Upside at wide receiver comes from targeting WR1 roles on NFL offenses or, at worst, WR2 roles from the best passing games. Brown has the best profile of production of all the notable Raiders' wide receivers. Will Henry Ruggs take a massive step forward in Year 2? Will Bryan Edwards be healthy and ascend to the WR1 spot? Both are projections, and Brown has been a productive receiver in the NFL. A WR1 role and 100+ targets are within the range of outcomes here.
Gabriel Davis, Buffalo | Consensus Rankings WR64 | Consensus Projections WR69
Anthony Amico: The Bills will be a pass-heavy offense that can sustain three fantasy-relevant wide receivers. However, I believe that Davis is ready to take another step in 2021. He was a three-year college player who broke out and then produced on limited targets as a rookie. There is tremendous upside here if he can usurp Beasley in the pecking order. Emanuel Sanders is dustier than John Brown at this point.
James Brimacombe: Usually, when we see a fourth-round draft pick score seven touchdowns in his rookie season, we would get excited about them. Davis did just that last season and is tied to one of the best young quarterbacks in the league but still is getting very little love in the community. With a stat line of 35/599/7 on 62 targets, I want to bet on the targets and receptions improving in Year 2, and I will continue to take the deep discount.
Ryan Hester: The team’s acquisition of Emmanuel Sanders may have put a damper on Davis’ raw outlook, but it lowered his price enough to make him a value. Buffalo has been buzzing about Davis since his rookie preseason last year, and they incorporated him more as last season progressed. Sanders should impact Cole Beasley’s outlook more than Davis’. Sanders profiles more as a slot receiver, with the bigger, faster Davis being more of a perimeter threat. As long as Davis continues to get better this offseason, he should hold off Sanders and play in the majority of two-receiver sets opposite Stefon Diggs. If he can’t beat out Sanders, he becomes droppable early in the season. But if he does, the upside is well worth the low risk at this price.
Rondale Moore, Arizona | Consensus Rankings WR63 | Consensus Projections WR61
Pat Fitzmaurice: Seeing Moore terrorize the Big Ten in 2018 as an 18-year-old freshman was like seeing the Beatles in Shea Stadium in 1965. You knew you were witnessing the start of something big. Of course, "big" refers to Moore's potential impact and not his stature. His measurements (5-foot-7, 181 pounds) will repel many fantasy managers, and you owe it to yourself to capitalize on their biases. Trying to cover Moore is like trying to cover mercury. He had 114 catches, 1,471 yards from scrimmage, and 14 touchdowns in 13 games in that electric freshman season but played only seven games the last two years -- another factor holding down Moore's cost. I can't wait to see how the Cardinals use this little stick of dynamite.
Matt Waldman: This should be an obvious high-upside choice, but in case you're not a college football fan, Moore is one of the most explosive receivers in the 2021 class. As I wrote in the 2021 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, I believe that Moore is an excellent fit in the Cardinals' scheme because he'll earn many plum matchups from the slot. He could earn 65-75 catches this year and close to 1,000 yards from scrimmage.
Jason Wood: The Cardinals are tricky to decipher given the plethora of options, including A.J. Green's arrival to go along with incumbents DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk. But the front office prioritized Moore, and coach Kingsbury immediately talked up Moore's skill set as the missing link in the offense. Moroe profiles as the perfect slot receiver, and given the Cardinals' lack of receiving tight ends, he could be in line for monstrous snap counts and target share if he shows well in training camp.
Breshad Perriman, Detroit | Consensus Rankings WR76 | Consensus Projections WR74
Drew Davenport: The commonly held belief is that players often experience a renaissance after getting out from under an Adam Gase regime. Still, that kindness hasn't been extended to Perriman this summer. When we last saw him in a different uniform, he found his form late in the year for Cleveland in 2018 and then as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer in 2019. For the Buccaneers, Perriman was the 15th ranked wide receiver in DVOA by Football Outsiders and sported the same Yards Per Target as players like Calvin Ridley, Michael Thomas, and Will Fuller. It looked like he was figuring things out. But then the Jets happened, and now Perriman is an afterthought. But his situation is setting up to deliver some opportunities. The Lions defense isn't likely to be very good yet again, and the lack of receiving options behind T.J. Hockenson is notable. The path to six targets per game (which would get him over 100 for the season) isn't a wild one. There is a lot of room for Perriman to return value with his current ADP.
Pat Fitzmaurice: Draft him late, drop him after a few weeks if he doesn't pan out. Perriman is big (6-foot-2, 215 pounds), fast, and the only guy in the Lions' wide receiver room with even a shred of alpha-receiver cred. Knee injuries thwarted Perriman early in his career and turned him into a fantasy afterthought. But in December 2019, when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were injured, Perriman was terrific as a de facto lead receiver, catching 25 passes for 506 yards and five touchdowns over the last five games of the season. I think Perriman is far more likely to be fantasy-viable this year than Lions rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Justin Howe: We've all been fantasy-burned -- even if only a little -- by Perriman at this point. The former No. 26 pick has seen injuries derail his every turn in Baltimore, Washington, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and New York. His sixth roster, though, finds him near the top of a laughably understocked wide receivers room. The Lions have no choice but to lean on Perriman, the oft-injured Tyrell Williams, Quintez Cephus, and a fourth-round rookie to snaps out wide. Perriman may never put in another 16- (or 17-) game season, but his deep speed is undeniable. He's never posted a season below 15.0 yards per catch, often making the best of bad situations with subpar quarterbacking.
TreQuan Smith, New Orleans | Consensus Rankings WR65 | Consensus Projections WR58
Drew Davenport: Smith's skill set didn't match up well with Drew Brees over the last couple of years. Smith showed flashes of his upside at times but was prone to disappear for long stretches. But, the quarterback change in New Orleans could be a good thing for him this year. The Saints certainly didn't go out of their way to bring Emmanuel Sanders back or sign any big-name free agents, so it looks like Smith will get another shot to earn some playing time. That's exactly the type of player to be looking for late in a draft.
Andy Hicks: TreQuan Smith hasn’t followed up on the promise of his rookie season. Perhaps that is all his fault, or maybe the aging arm of Drew Brees was an issue. If it is clear that Jameis Winston will start, a late pick on Smith will prove to be a shrewd move. His value will likely be limited to best-ball leagues, but if he develops a good rapport with Winston and has made sufficient improvement in his game, he will be of great value.
Chad Parsons: Drew Brees struggled to go downfield late in his career, but bold vertical throws are a strength of Jameis Winston's decision-making in his best moments. Michael Thomas has the WR1 high-volume role locked down, but the WR2+ roles have been a rotation of instability for years. Smith has mired in the WR60-90 zone through three seasons, but a Saints team still with Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, and a drove of question marks is poised to unlock a downfield threat for the first time in years. Smith is the strongest profile for such a role.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Parris Campbell, Indianapolis | Consensus Rankings WR72 | Consensus Projections WR73
Phil Alexander: Freak injuries have limited Campbell to a total of nine games through his first two NFL seasons, but the 59th pick in the 2019 draft will provide Carson Wentz with a tactical advantage when healthy. Campbell will likely return to the slot, where he commanded nine targets in his only appearance last season. But his 4.3-speed and ability to separate at every level is tailor-made for Wentz’s arm strength. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Frank Reich use Campbell in a role that also allows him to attack defenses vertically.
Sigmund Bloom: Campbell has been a camp sensation in each of his first two years only to suffer a serious injury early in the season. He even teased a breakout year in 2020 before a season-ending knee injury took him out. The Colts offense should have a more active vertical passing game with Carson Wentz, and Campbell is once again healthy. His significant upside makes it worth the small price to see if this is the year he stays on the field.
Terrace Marshall, Carolina | Consensus Rankings WR70 | Consensus Projections WR66
Anthony Amico: Curtis Samuel is out, and in comes Marshall, who played for offensive coordinator Joe Brady at LSU. This offense should configure with Marshall and Robby Anderson outside and D.J. Moore in the slot. The Panthers were one of the most concentrated offenses in football last year under Brady -- Samuel, Moore, Anderson, and the running backs accounted for 83% of the targets. Marshall should have a sizable role from the jump.
Jeff Haseley: We know about his accolades and comparisons of other great wide receivers to come out of LSU. He has an opportunity to fill the Curtis Samuel role with Carolina and can make plays all over the field. The reason why he fell in the draft was due to injury concerns (ankle, foot). There is a place for Marshall to excel on Carolina's roster. If he proves he is past his injuries and shows that he and Joe Brady pick up where they left off at LSU, he could be a surprise fantasy riser in 2021.
Emmanuel Sanders, Buffalo | Consensus Rankings WR66 | Consensus Projections WR71
Sigmund Bloom: Sanders didn't show signs of an age-related dropoff last year, and he's inheriting a role that John Brown was fantasy relevant in before he got hurt in 2020. The Bills will again be a pass-heavy offense that can sustain three fantasy-relevant wide receivers. ADP assumes that Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley will outscore Sanders, but the team's decisive action to sign him to a six million dollar deal early in free agency tells a different story.
Matt Waldman: Sanders got hurt last year and then had to work with a quarterback at the end of his career who suffered a myriad of injuries that cost him arm strength. Sanders still has vertical skills, and his absence from the 49ers' lineup hurt San Francisco's offense from a situational football perspective. Expect Sanders to provide a net upgrade to John Brown for Josh Allen and Buffalo, where he'll get to use his full complement of routes with a quarterback who will have no problem putting RPMs on each target.
Tyrell Williams, Detroit | Consensus Rankings WR73 | Consensus Projections WR63
Andy Hicks: Tyrell Williams has teased fantasy stardom since his breakout season with the Chargers in 2016. Injuries and poor form have resulted in disappointment over the years, but the Raiders and now Detroit has paid him like a potential star. He will get targets, is the obvious lead receiver for the Lions, and is available at a steal in late rounds.
Chad Parsons: Like the Raiders, the Lions' wide receiver depth chart is also up in the air for the hierarchy of targets. The answer might be this is a wide receiver black hole, and the passing game runs through T.J. Hockenson and DAndre Swift. However, Williams has a top-15 season to his name (2016) and has three straight years of 600+ yards and at least four touchdowns since then. Breshad Perriman is a dart throw at best, and Quintez Cephus and Amon-Ra St.Brown are younger Day 3 options. Williams is the best bet if there is a fantasy-relevant WR1 in Detroit.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Quintez Cephus, Detroit | Consensus Rankings WR90 | Consensus Projections WR89
Matt Waldman: I like Cephus' potential, and the fact he saw a lot of time in the starting lineup last year is a positive sign. However, he lacks top speed and fits best as a big slot or flanker. With Amon-Ra St. Brown in the fold, it's hard to tell where Cephus may fit in here. With a big camp, he could emerge as one of the top 2-3 receivers in an offense that may need to throw the ball a lot. If he doesn't stand out, he could be a contributor with no more than unpredictable flex value. So far, Cephus has been the most targeted receiver in minicamp and getting open on more complex routes than last year.
Keelan Cole, NY Jets | Consensus Rankings WR83 | Consensus Projections WR81
Matt Waldman: Cole has been a favorite of mine since he has a tremendous rookie stretch run with the Jaguars. He's a player I targeted last December as the most likely free agent to deliver a Robert Woods-like ascension with a new team. Thus far, he's running with the Jets' starters in minicamp. GM Joe Douglas coveted Cole for the past two years but couldn't land him until this year. Look for Cole to make a substantial contribution this year, at the very least as a co-starter in a platoon with Denzel Mims and/or Elijah Moore.
Bryan Edwards, Las Vegas | Consensus Rankings WR94 | Consensus Projections WR101
Jeff Haseley: At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, Bryan Edwards gives the Raiders a big red-zone target capable of much more than that. He struggled with injuries and, dare I say, confidence in his rookie season, but all is not lost. A shortlist of players could emerge as the Raiders' top wide receiver in 2021, and Edwards is firmly on that list. Take a flier on Edwards. If he pans out, great. If not, the risk was minimal.
A.J. Green, Arizona | Consensus Rankings WR75 | Consensus Projections WR75
Ryan Hester: Is Green done? Is he too old and injured to do big things? Perhaps, but the second receiver in a high-powered, pass-happy offense is a fantasy commodity. Attaching a player of Green’s pedigree to that role is rare. And it’s worth a gamble at this price. A player drafted this low doesn’t have to start for your fantasy team in Week 1, so give Green a chance. And if it’s apparent after a few weeks that he has no gas left in the tank — or that one of Arizona’s young receivers have passed him in the target pecking order — he can be dropped for a waiver wire wonder.
Van Jefferson, LA Rams | Consensus Rankings WR89 | Consensus Projections WR82
James Brimacombe: Let's not forget about the Rams' 2020 second-round pick as he is coming off a year where he was buried on the depth chart and had a downgrade at quarterback. Fast forward to Jefferson entering Year 2. His situation is much better with Matthew Stafford throwing him the ball and Josh Reynolds and Gerald Everett out of town to help free up targets. Jefferson looks to battle DeSean Jackson for targets this year which he should have the upper hand rather easily.
Jakobi Meyers, New England | Consensus Rankings WR81 | Consensus Projections WR78
Justin Howe: Meyers likely won't win anyone's fantasy league in the Patriots' moribund offense. But he'll enter camp with a big claim to the No. 1 role in an attack that can't possibly throw the ball less than it did in 2020. The Patriots threw just 440 passes last year, but once Meyers entered the lineup, he proved himself a true target hog. From Week 7 on, Meyers drew a whopping 48% of the team's wide receiver targets. His numbers weren't eye-popping, and he failed to find the end zone, but those 11 games sported a pace of 90 catches, 1,116 yards. Meyers is a Belichick favorite, and he likely needs only to hold off journeyman Nelson Agholor and mega-bust NKeal Harry for the No. 1 job. There are very few sources of even 80-catch potential to be found in Round 15+ of drafts, so here's a free square.
Josh Reynolds, Tennessee | Consensus Rankings WR86 | Consensus Projections WR104
Justin Howe: Reynolds slipped almost entirely off the draft map when Julio Jones was signed, but he's still worth a late-round stab in deep drafts that produce 6+ wide receivers. Reynolds will be used as a jack of all trades, filling in all over the formation, and Jones isn't exactly a bastion of health. If the 32-year-old misses extended time, Reynolds will likely shift into the Corey Davis role from last year and serve as a flex option during midseason byes. There's shockingly little around him on the depth chart.
Sterling Shepard, NY Giants | Consensus Rankings WR62 | Consensus Projections WR70
Andy Hicks: The arrival of Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney to the Giants offense allows the existing receivers like Sterling Shepard to play roles more suited to their abilities. Toney, in particular, may not be ready to be a focal point, so Shepard may see more targets than was originally expected. His upside is limited, but later in fantasy drafts, you have the option of swinging for the fences or taking a potential WR3 like Shepard instead.
Darius Slayton, NY Giants | Consensus Rankings WR74 | Consensus Projections WR76
Sigmund Bloom: The Giants breaking the bank for Kenny Golladay was widely seen as a bad thing for Slayton, but even if it drops his target share, it should greatly increase the value of his deep targets. Golladay will draw the extra attention to leave Slayton in one-on-one matchups he can win. The Giants offense did not emphasize the deep pass, which is where Slayton excelled as a rookie. Still, if Jason Garrett comes to his senses, Slayton has already shown the ability to win deep consistently, and he and Daniel Jones have terrific deep-ball chemistry.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit | Consensus Rankings WR78 | Consensus Projections WR79
Victoria Geary: Tight end T.J. Hockenson and running back DAndre Swift will remain the focus of Detroit's offense, but which wide receiver will step up? With the exit of Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, St. Brown will have ample opportunity to lead the Lions' putrid receiving corps in targets this season. Brown has the versatility to line up in several wide receiver spots, which should allow him to see the field early and often. Assuming the Lions will be playing from behind each week, St. Brown is primed for a busy season.
Sammy Watkins, Baltimore | Consensus Rankings WR79 | Consensus Projections WR83
Jason Wood: Remember when Sammy Watkins was an every-week fantasy starter? It's been a while, but Greg Roman -- Baltimore's offensive coordinator -- was the play-caller for Watkins when he was an emerging star. Baltimore prioritized Watkins in the offseason, and Roman swears the team will throw more in 2021 after opposing defenses started figuring out the run-heavy offense last year.
