2019 brought big changes at wide receiver. Outside of Michael Thomas and maybe Chris Godwin, there weren’t any true difference makers at the position. Many people won championships with lineups that featured wide receivers who weren’t expected to be contributors in fantasy leagues. The list of relevant wide receivers was longer than ever. This should be affecting your draft strategy as even the late rounds are rife with quality receivers in decent situations. What does the 2020 wide receiver landscape look like?
ELITE WR1
Michael Thomas, NO
Davante Adams, GB
Julio Jones, ATL
Thomas was ridiculous in 2019, and while his targets could be cut into by Emmanuel Sanders and better health from Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook, he might get even more efficient. Whether to take him or a running back is the decision you may face if you draw a pick in the 5-7 range. Adams produced despite missing time with a foot injury last year and could be the most targeted receiver in the league this year. You can set your clock by Jones production and he’s always a comforting pick in the late first in PPR leagues. My team builds don’t include first-round receivers often, but I won’t talk you out of them, especially if you love a few backs in the 4th-6th round range.
Priced Correctly: Thomas, Adams, Jones
HIGH CEILING WR1
Tyreek Hill, KC
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
Odell Beckham Jr CLE
Mike Evans, TB
Amari Cooper, DAL
Kenny Golladay, DET
JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT
Expect some peaks and valleys from this group, but the air the peaks can reach is rarefied indeed. The availability of receivers in this tier stretches into the early fourth round in some drafts, so don’t feel a need to take one in the second. Hill already has a little hamstring issue, but his connection with Patrick Mahomes II is reliable. Hopkins' connection with Kyler Murray is unknown and his target share will certainly drop, so he’s overvalued in the top 5. Beckham is healthy and will get the play-action deep shots in the Stefanski offense. We might be wondering why he lasted so long in drafts by Week 3 or 4. Evans is riffing better with Tom Brady than Chris Godwin according to some reports and he was less reliant on production when the Bucs were trailing big than Godwin. Cooper was producing like an elite fantasy receiver before the bumps and bruises slowed him down in the second half last year, can he avoid them and soar this year? Smith-Schuster was a dud in 2019 because his quarterback got hurt, but Diontae Johnson produced in the same circumstances so…? The discount to a 3rd/4th round ADP gives any Smith-Schuster believers the nudge they need to take him. For Golladay, a vault into the top 5 might be as simple as Matthew Stafford playing a whole season, but you might have to pay a second-round pick to get him.
Values: Beckham
Priced Correctly: Evans, Cooper, Smith-Schuster
Overpriced: Hopkins, Hill, Golladay
HIGH FLOOR WR1
Adam Thielen, MIN
Chris Godwin, TB
Allen Robinson, CHI
D.J. Moore, CAR
This group has a higher weekly floor than the high ceiling tier, with just as high a ceiling, but they might not hit that ceiling as often. Thielen has a real chance to lead the league in targets and receptions and is a favorite target around the 3-4 turn. Godwin might get fewer snaps in the slot and take a hit from fewer Jameis Winston game scripts. We can hope for better quarterback play with Robinson on one hand and spit in the other hand and we will see which one gets filled first. He’s still worth his ADP. Moore could benefit from Teddy Bridgewater’s style and strengths, and he was on his way to a 100-catch season. He’s ultra-safe at ADP and can last until the 3-4 turn.
Values: Thielen, Moore
Correctly Priced: Robinson
Overpriced: Godwin
HIGH FLOOR WR2
Calvin Ridley, ATL
DeVante Parker, MIA
T.Y. Hilton, IND
Robert Woods, LAR
This group isn’t as far behind the WR1 tiers as the WR2 designation would make it seen. Ridley can produce at or near Julio Jones level if he stays healthy. Parker arrived in a big way in the second half of the year, although some wonder how much of that was Preston Williams being out. Hilton got banged up a lot last year to erode confidence in him and he started camp with a hamstring issue, but his injury risk is more than priced into his cost. Woods was a fantasy WR1 in the second half of the year and could benefit from better touchdown luck.
Values: Parker, Hilton
Priced Correctly: Ridley, Woods
HIGH CEILING WR2
DK Metcalf, SEA
Tyler Lockett, SEA
Terry McLaurin, WAS
AJ Brown, TEN
D.J. Chark, JAX
Courtland Sutton, DEN
Marquise Brown, BAL
Again, you might find the quality of this group isn’t really that far off of the high ceiling WR1 group. Metcalf had a better rookie year than anyone expected and might have a much steeper career arc climb coming than we expect, while Lockett was a top 10 receiver before he got hurt last year and can actually benefit from Metcalf being a higher priority for defenses. McLaurin was outstanding with poor quarterback play and can dominate targets for his team in a higher volume pass offense unlike many others in this tier. I’m not as high on Brown as the most optimistic player in your league, but his upside is undeniable. Chark is a player I like more every time I look at him and a top 10 finish is well within his range of outcomes. Sutton could be helped by better threats around him making the pass offense credible, and Brown has maybe the highest ceiling in this tier if he can stay healthy and take the top off of defenses that are trying to contain Lamar Jackson. If you wait until the fourth round to take a wide receiver and take players from this tier in Rounds 4-6, you have a shot to equal the wide receiver production of teams that spent much more on wide receiver.
Values: Metcalf, Lockett, McLaurin, Chark, MBrown
Priced Correctly: Sutton
Overpriced: AJBrown
HIGH FLOOR WR3/Flex
Tyler Boyd, CIN
Keenan Allen, LAC
Cooper Kupp, LAR
Michael Gallup, DAL
Jarvis Landry, CLE
Julian Edelman, NE
The familiar refrain by now… you might see little difference between this group and the high floor WR2s. And I’m not going to say you’re wrong. Boyd could be the Justin Jefferson for Joe Burrow and put up career highs. We might be overestimating the hit Allen will take with the transition to a Tyrod Taylor offense. Kupp’s value hinges on whether the Rams run more two-tight-end or three wide receiver sets. Gallup came on in the second half of the year and the Cowboys pass offense should be hyperefficient. Landry is very accomplished and his proven performance is available at a discount this year after he had offseason hip surgery and may play in a low volume pass offense. Edelman is establishing chemistry with Cam Newton, who should make frequent use of him in a very thin pass offense.
Values: Boyd, Gallup
Priced Correctly: Landry, Allen, Edelman
Overpriced: Kupp
High CEILING WR3/Flex
Will Fuller, HOU
Brandin Cooks, HOU
Diontae Johnson, PIT
Stefon Diggs, BUF
Emmanuel Sanders, NO
A.J. Green, CIN
Marvin Jones, DET
You can draft players in this tier as your WR4 or even WR5 (outside of maybe Diggs) and play matchups or hot streaks, potentially getting an every-week option. It’s fun to take a Texans wide receiver or two, but I waffle between the promise of Fuller as #1 with better health and Cooks' long track record of producing in Year One with a new quarterback. Both are worthy picks. Johnson was productive while playing through a hernia with the worst quarterback play in the league. That alone should garner interest, even in a crowded passing game. Diggs is much better than his ranking, but he’s in a low volume passing game with a sometimes erratic quarterback who has four other viable targets. Sanders could make the #2 wide receiver role in the Saints passing game come alive, he very much still has game. We’re all losing faith in Green’s ability to stay on the field, but he has never been anything but elite when he does play. Jones is up and down, but a week-winning game is always in his range of outcomes and he has a very good quarterback with a long-standing connection.
Values: Fuller, Cooks, Johnson, Sanders
Priced Correctly: Jones, Brown
Overpriced: Diggs, Green
PRIORITY HIGH CEILING BENCH STASH
Ceedee Lamb, DAL
Jerry Jeudy, DEN
Preston Williams, MIA
Mecole Hardman, KC
Curtis Samuel, CAR
Jalen Reagor, PHI
Laviska Shenault, JAX
Anthony Miller, CHI
The common thread here is that all of these players are on the upslope side of their career arc. Lamb is the #3, but in the offense that is the best threat to put three receivers over 1000 yards in at least a decade. Jeudy is the #2, but he could become the #1 in short order if the offense stresses throwing to the player who is open instead of Courtland Sutton's contested catch game. Williams is healthy and the Dolphins pass offense is underrated. He could be a lot closer to DeVante Parker in value than the ADP spread suggests. Hardman is still learning the wide receiver position and could take a big leap in ability in his second year. Samuel should be in a high volume pass offense with a scheme that is more willing to be creative with his usage. Reagor could be the #1 outside option in Philadelphia in short order considering DeSean Jackson’s injury history. Shenault, like Samuel, is playing for a team that is embracing his multi-use profile on offense. Miller was a top 10 receiver for a stretch last year, but we have to light a prayer candle for his shoulders after yet another offseason surgery.
Values: Lamb, Williams, Hardman, Samuel, Reagor, Shenault, Miller
PRIORITY HIGH FLOOR BENCH STASH
Christian Kirk, ARI
Jamison Crowder, NYJ
Randall Cobb, HOU
Sterling Shepard, NYG
Golden Tate, NYG
There’s potential for this group to outproduce ADP, and all they really have to do to accomplish that is be a steady 10-12 point floor PPR play. Kirk’s game could grow, but he’s not going to lead the Cardinals in targets per game now that DeAndre Hopkins is on board. Crowder should lead the Jets in targets, but he couldn’t turn that into fantasy consistency last year. Cobb is the best option Watson has had in the slot since pre-doghouse Keke Coutee and he is a free square late in PPR drafts. Shepard was consistent and Tate explosive with Daniel Jones last year, but what will a Giants passing game target distribution look like if everyone stays healthy? Outside of Cobb this group is best tapped into if you have a lot of boom/bust wide receivers options drafted ahead of them.
Value: Cobb
Priced Correctly: Crowder, Kirk, Shepard, Tate
HIGH CEILING BENCH STASH
DeSean Jackson, PHI
Sammy Watkins, KC
Darius Slayton, NYG
John Brown, BUF
Robby Anderson, CAR
Mike Williams, LAC
This group can give you a big game just as easily as they give you a dud, so you’ll have to pick your spots or try to catch lightning in a bottle during a hot streak. Jackson went off with Carson Wentz last year in one game but was only on the field for the whole time in one game. Watkins had his best games at the beginning and end of the season. Despite the frustration in between, his price is way too cheap for Patrick Mahomes II #2 receiver. Slayton had great chemistry with Daniel Jones in the deep passing game, but if all hands are on deck in the Giants offense, he’ll be a feast or famine option. Brown will lose too many targets to Stefon Diggs to be consistent. Anderson’s hot zone - deep shots - matches Teddy Bridgewater’s cold zone. I still see the reasoning in taking a receiver of Anderson’s caliber late. Tyrod Taylor throws a nice deep ball for Mike Williams, but enthusiasm about him is dampened after he sprained his shoulder in camp.
Values: Jackson, Watkins, Anderson
Priced Correctly: Slayton, JBrown, MWilliams
DELAYED GRATIFICATION
Deebo Samuel, SF
Alshon Jeffery, PHI
Samuel was a big hit as a rookie, which often leads to 1000 yard second seasons, but his foot injury likely turned out the light on that possibility. He is going in the same range as receivers with similar ceilings and we have an uncertain wait to when we can trust him, so he’s probably a pass unless we hear he’s ready for Week 1, which would, in turn, push him up the board and make him overpriced again. Jeffery isn’t being drafted, but maybe should be in deeper leagues with an injured reserve slot. He may start the season on the PUP list, but will likely be fantasy relevant when he does return.
ENDGAME TARGETS
Steven Sims Jr, WAS
Corey Davis, TEN
Auden Tate, CIN
NKeal Harry, NE
Michael Pittman, IND
Henry Ruggs, LV
You should have clarity on your late-round target list going into your draft. Mine is made up of Sims, who was fantasy relevant in December last year as a UDFA and is playing for a team that should have a bump in total targets. Davis was hurting last year to explain his dropoff and could have a bounceback year, to the detriment of AJ Brown and Jonnu Smith’s target shares. Tate is balling out with Joe Burrow in the red zone in practices and AJ Green and John Ross aren’t known for their durability. Harry is finishing camp on a high note and Cam Newton has a history of making the most of contested catch receivers. Pittman and Ruggs are also endgame picks to see if they have early season breakouts in limited roles, but only Pittman is priced that way.
WAIVER WIRE WATCH LIST - DOWNFIELD TARGETS
Breshad Perriman, NYJ
Allen Lazard, GB
Now we are to the players who aren’t necessarily worth a pick but could be early season waiver wire priorities. Perriman is battling a sore knee but otherwise showed good chemistry with Sam Darnold. If the line is at least mediocre and Perriman is healthy, he could build momentum. Lazard is the #2 for Aaron Rodgers, but that wasn’t exactly a high target role last year. Tyrell Williams was on this list until he was diagnosed with a torn labrum.
WAIVER WIRE WATCH LIST - ROOKIE
Bryan Edwards, LV
Brandon Aiyuk, SF
Chase Claypool, PIT
Denzel Mims, NYJ
Tee Higgins, CIN
Devin Duvernay, BAL
Van Jefferson, LAR
K.J. Hamler, DEN
Quintez Cephus, DET
Antonio Gandy-Golden, WAS
Isaiah Coulter, HOU
John Hightower, PHI
Joe Reed, LAC
Justin Jefferson, MIN
After 2019, we aren’t going to be caught off guard by rookies outperforming expectations. Of this group, Jefferson and Aiyuk should stand out as guys being drafted in most drafts, but Jefferson hasn’t had a great camp and Aiyuk’s hamstring might keep him out until Deebo Samuel is full speed, which could limit his fantasy possibilities this year. Edwards becomes very interesting if Tyrell Williams gets shut down. Mims and Higgins have also been hurt. Mims has a clearer path to playing time, as Auden Tate could keep Higgins' role small to begin, although Higgins is in a better pass offense. Duvernay and Cephus are favorites who could surprise if injuries get them on the field quicker and more than expected.
WAIVER WIRE WATCH LIST - ROLE GROWTH?
Parris Campbell, IND
James Washington, PIT
Miles Boykin, BAL
All of this group has great talent, but they are also battling volume/role limitations in their passing games. If injuries or outstanding play vault them into bigger roles, then they could be relevant in fantasy leagues. They should be endgame picks in deep leagues.
WAIVER WIRE WATCH LIST - POST HYPE BREAKOUT
John Ross, CIN
Andy Isabella, ARI
Josh Reynolds, LAR
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, PHI
Keelan Cole, JAX
This group has generated buzz at different points in their careers to date and all are still on the upslope or at the peak years of their career arcs. Ross is a speed/quickness specimen but can’t stay healthy. Joe Burrow should be making you be open to him hitting. Isabella could pop as the fourth receiver in an offense that now has three legit options ahead of him. Reynolds will fight Van Jefferson for playing time, but will also be the best deep threat in his offense. Likewise for Valdes-Scantling battling Allen Lazard. Arcega-Whiteside could start Week 1 and has had a good camp to reverse the slide from 2019. Cole has been one of the Jaguars' best three receivers and could relegate Chris Conley and Dede Westbrook to the bench. Have an itchy trigger finger for this group on the waiver wire if they start hot.
BYE/INJURY/EMERGENCY LOW CEILING PLAYS
Kendrick Bourne, SF
Hunter Renfrow, LV
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
Cole Beasley, BUF
Russell Gage, ATL
Trent Taylor, SF
Danny Amendola, DET
Adam Humphries, TEN
Mohamed Sanu, NE
Olabisi Johnson, MIN
None of this group is going to make your season and they don’t deserve consideration in typical leagues, but they have value in best-ball drafts and might be better than some of your bench receivers when injuries, byes, and emergencies force you to dig deep for a starter. If injuries strike their passing game enough to make them top-two options, any of this group could have more than fleeting value.
WAIVER WIRE WATCH LIST - NEEDS OPPORTUNITY
Demarcus Robinson/Bryon Pringle/Gehrig Dieter, KC
Greg Ward, PHI
Zach Pascal, IND
TreQuan Smith, NO
Phillip Dorsett, SEA
Kenny Stills/Keke Coutee, HOU
Laquon Treadwell, ATL
Scotty Miller/Justin Watson, TB
This group has some evidence of talent/ability in the past, and they all play in at least average pass offenses. They need injuries ahead of them to matter, but Ward, Robinson, Pringle, Stills, and Pascal got playing time due to injury and made good on it at times last year.
More Bang for your Buck Scoring System Plays
Big Play Touchdown Bonus
Kenny Golladay
Mecole Hardman
Tyreek Hill
A.J. Brown
DeSean Jackson
Terry McLaurin
Marquise Brown
Mike Evans
Amari Cooper
Stefon Diggs
Tyler Lockett
Calvin Ridley
Mike Williams
Robby Anderson
PPR
Julian Edelman
Robert Woods
D.J. Moore
Sterling Shepard
Jamison Crowder
Jarvis Landry
100-yard games
Michael Thomas
Julio Jones
Davante Adams
Amari Cooper
A.J. Brown
Kenny Golladay
Tyler Lockett
Devante Parker
D.J. Moore
Mike Evans
Juju Smith-Schuster
Tyreek Hill
Odell Beckham
Schedule Notes
- Arizona opens with San Francisco, but then faces Washington, Carolina, the Jets, and Dallas. It could be a high efficiency run for Kyler Murray and the wide receivers. After the Week 8 bye, the Cardinals still have to face the Miami corners, Tre’Davious White, the Patriots corners, Jalen Ramsey, Darius Slay, and Richard Sherman, so things could get slower for Murray, and De’Andre Hopkins if he is shadowed
- Marquise Brown is cleared for takeoff against an opening quintet of Cleveland, Houston, Kansas City, Washington, and Cincinnati.
- Odell Beckham gets the Cincinnati, Washington, and Dallas corners after opening with Baltimore. Think about buying low if the Ravens smother him in Week 1. Beckham also finishes with the Giants and Jets corners in Weeks 15 and 16.
- Allen Robinson’s quarterback situation is bleak, but at least he draws the Houston, Minnesota, and Jacksonville corners in Weeks 14-16.
- Buffalo’s passing game closes with the Chargers, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Denver, and New England Weeks 12-16 if you were looking for another reason to avoid Stefon Diggs.
- We will see how far N’keal Harry has come against Weeks 13-16 schedule that will likely match him up with Casey Hayward (LAC), Jalen Ramsey (LAR), Xavien Howard or Byron Jones (MIA), and Tre’Davious White (BUF).
