The old adage in fantasy circles is that you can’t win your league in the first round of your draft, but you sure can lose it. So, when you are faced with a tough decision early in your draft what should you do? It has been a few years since everyone agreed on a consensus No. 1 overall selection, but that honor unequivocally goes to Christian McCaffrey in 2020
But the question now is who should be next from a group of five players between Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, and Michael Thomas? All made their case in either a positive or negative direction coming into this draft season, but their 2019 performances don’t necessarily tell the whole story of what to expect this year.
All of these guys are worthy of the No. 2 pick in some way or the discussion wouldn’t be important to have. So, the details of their prospects become the most important part of the conversation. Which guys have true injury concerns? Which guys had a 2019 season that was an aberration – good or bad? And which guys have the elite usage in all phases of the game to warrant their coronation in the No. 2 slot?
Saquon Barkley
Barkley’s rookie campaign was so good that predicting his 2019 would have been impossible to do. He suffered an ankle sprain in Week 3 and left that game early. Although he came back in Week 7, he clearly suffered from the injury. According to Pro Football Reference, Barkley’s broken tackle rate fell precipitously from eighth in the league (per game) in 2018 as a rookie to 23rd in the league last year. Further, his overall role on the offense shrunk as well. But injury may not tell the whole story.
The Giants transitioned from starting quarterback Eli Manning to Daniel Jones in Week 3, the same week Barkley got hurt. So Jones and Barkley weren’t on the field together until Week 7 before Jones then missed Weeks 14 and 15 due to injury. That leaves analysts a scant 8 game sample to judge what 2020 will look like. That is very difficult to do, but there are some clues that can point you in the right direction.
Barkley’s backers would tell you that his prognosis for this year should look more like 2018 than 2019. Some signs point to that being reasonable. Despite his injury, Barkley’s rushing usage was still strong when he returned as he carried it 18 times per game over his final ten games. The Giants still leaned on him heavily by giving him 269 touches in just 12.5 games. His yards per touch, despite clearly losing some of his elusiveness because of injury, fell only slightly from 5.8 to 5.4 yards every time he touched the ball (rushing or receiving).
The problem with Barkley in 2020 is that there are some red flags that can’t be explained just yet. They may be nothing, or they may be everything. It appeared in 2019 that the Giants found a more diverse way to score the football and Barkley suffered as a result. Daniel Jones threw 12 touchdowns in the red zone last year but more impressively did not throw a single interception in the most important part of the field. In 2018 Barkley averaged 4.1 opportunities per game in the red area and that dipped to just 3.0 in 2019. That is a sharp drop of over 25% of his scoring chances from his rookie season. In nine of Barkley’s games in 2019, he received just two or fewer opportunities in the scoring zone. That metric in 2018 was in stark contrast: Barkley had just three *total* games where he was given two or fewer touches in the red zone. Again, that is a drop that should raise eyebrows and he finished with 8 total touchdowns on his 269 touches.
The other issue that is a problem was a large drop in receptions for Barkley as well. Part of his massive appeal (especially in PPR) was his 121 target, 91 catch rookie campaign. Those numbers fell off to 73 targets and 52 receptions last year. That does not tell the whole story because he missed time, but the most interesting thing is the splits seen before and after the Giants’ bye week. Barkley’s value was, in part, derived from Eli Manning’s constant need to check the ball down in 2018. By contrast, Jones is a dangerous runner, and he has several good wide receivers that work the short areas of the field well – Golden Tate, Sterling Shephard, and Evan Engram. It is likely that at least some of these factors contributed to a falling usage rate through the air. Barkley still recorded a span of 7 targets and 5.5 receptions per game from Weeks 7 to 10 until the Week 11 bye. But after the bye, he saw just 4.5 targets per game and a scant 3.2 receptions per contest. The red zone usage, combined with the falling target rate, should give any owner pause when using a top of the draft selection on Barkley. And finally, if fantasy owners further consider that new play-caller Jason Garrett, who ran a stale and unimaginative offense in Dallas, muddies the waters there isn’t much here to point to Barkley returning to elite status in 2020. He checks in at pick #6 in the first round, not the 1.02.
Dalvin Cook
Cook’s prospects are easier to dissect than Barkley’s coming into the season because the analysis really boils down to one issue – can he stay healthy? Although not considered an injury risk coming out of college, Cook has battled to stay healthy in the NFL. He tore his ACL his rookie year, and then in his second season, he battled a hamstring injury that kept him sidelined or limited for most of the schedule. The 2019 season was a coming-out party, however, and Cook looked like the best fantasy running back behind McCaffrey for most of the year. And then the injuries struck again. This time it was a shoulder injury. The problem with that injury, in particular, is that it’s been a recurring issue. He first hurt the shoulder in high school and had issues with it in college and now it has popped up again in the NFL. That is obviously a big concern.
The other issue is Gary Kubiak coming to run the offense instead of Kevin Stefanski. The screen game was a huge boost to Cook’s production, especially in PPR leagues. But the coordinator change doesn’t look like a big problem for him. Kubiak was on the staff last year and he has previously run offenses that fed catches to the running backs when they were capable (see: Foster, Arian). Head Coach Mike Zimmer still wants to run the ball and use Cook near the goal line. If it weren’t for the injury concerns Cook would challenge for the No. 2 spot. He is officially a fantasy powerhouse, but he is starting to pile up a history of not being able to finish a season. In three seasons as a pro, he has missed parts or all of 20 games across 48 possible starts. That is enough to push him down the board. He is the No. 5 pick in Round 1.
Michael Thomas
Running backs continue to be king in fantasy football and the fact that Thomas has worked himself into this conversation says everything about the threat he’s become. His 2019 season was an absolute monster as he racked up 186 targets, most since 2015, and 149 receptions which established a new NFL record. The unfortunate thing with Thomas is that he has never been used as a red zone funnel because the offense is too good, and diverse, with Sean Payton calling plays and Drew Brees running the show. Simply put, they don’t need to force it to Thomas and they don’t. Even on 149 receptions last year he failed to hit double-digit touchdowns with just 9 scores for a paltry 6% rate. While that rate is a little lower than he’s had for his career, it isn’t wildly off as he’s had nine touchdowns in three of the four years of his career while recording just five in the other season.
The other thing keeping Thomas from being even higher in the first round is the offseason acquisition of wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. This is not a signing to be taken lightly. He’s a real NFL receiver and someone the Saints have lacked and failed to develop in recent years. Sanders will siphon some opportunities. Of course, the other side of the coin is that this should ease the pressure on Thomas a bit because of the lack of a real threat to play across from him since his rookie year.
Ultimately though, even if his numbers take a hit, he’ll still be a lock for 100 receptions in a great offense. He is durable, he’s got a massive target share, and he’s got an all-time accurate quarterback throwing him the football. His lack of touchdown upside and the presence of Sanders are the only things keeping him at this spot but for 2020 he is the No. 4 pick in the first round.
Alvin Kamara
The recency bias on Kamara is something that you will have to fight when drafting this year. It’s not that he was that bad in 2019, but he wasn’t what everyone expected. This has caused him to take a backseat to other top choices heading into fantasy draft season. A lot of Kamara’s struggles can and should be attributed to an ankle injury suffered Week 6. If you look at his first 5 weeks, everything was going just as it normally does in New Orleans as he averaged over 20 touches per game. Even when he returned, the usage of Latavius Murray hurting Kamara’s upside didn’t materialize even though Murray was very good with Kamara out of the lineup. Murray hit 10 carries just once the final seven games Kamara was active. He is simply not a threat to Kamara’s workload as previously thought.
The major issue that saw Kamara decline in 2019 was a complete crater in his touchdown rate. In his first two seasons, he put up a predictable 6.5% touchdown rate over his career’s first 476 touches. But in 2019 that fell to a touchdown on just 2.3% of his opportunities. Now take that with his injury that saw his yards per target fall from 6.8 in 2018 to 5.5 last year and his yards per reception fall from a career rate of 9.5 yards per reception to a career-low 6.6 yards per catch.
These numbers should tell you that all the conditions for Kamara’s 2020 season are there for him to repeat what he did in his first two years. The touchdown rate should positively regress towards his career numbers, the Saints offense, and the offensive line is intact, and his injury is a thing of the past. Alvin Kamara has recorded 81 receptions per year in each of his first three seasons. He is in a position to have another great year and has plenty of continuity to rely on. Barkley, Cook, and Thomas are deficient in that continuity in some way and thus fall behind Kamara as a safe play with plenty of upside. He should be the No. 3 pick in 2020.
The 1.02 -- Ezekiel Elliott
When you talk about the second pick behind Christian McCaffrey you must check every box. Durability. Usage in the passing game (for running backs) along with elite carry totals. Red zone usage. Good offense. Good offensive line. Good quarterback. Surrounding talent. He checks all the boxes.
If there is one thing you can nitpick about Elliott’s prospects it’s that he has already tallied 1,358 touches as an NFL running back and is coming off a whopping 736 touches over his last two seasons. This will become a concern at some point but there is nothing that says this will become an issue this coming year. He’s been an ironman and has missed almost no time for the Cowboys for injury-related concerns.
You could also argue that the loss of their center, Travis Frederick, is a big blow to an offensive line that suddenly finds itself in flux as well. Footballguys’ own Matt Bitoni has the Dallas offensive line as a middling unit for 2020, but still solid enough that it should not have a big detrimental impact on Elliott’s prospects.
But there are so many positives for Elliott that these two issues hardly register as reasons to pass on Elliott at the 1.02. It appears that new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s offense was a smashing success in 2019 and he has been retained under their new head coach. Mike McCarthy has said that he spent his year outside of football retooling his offense and learning how to play in today’s NFL. Both of those things are positive for Elliott going forward.
He is a lock for 300 carries. He has been asked to catch more than 50 passes in his last two seasons. He ranked in the top ten in broken tackles in 2019. He spent the past two years as a top 6 running back in yards after contact. He plays for a dynamic offense that is full of playmakers and that offense will give him a plethora of scoring opportunities.
The touchdown rate for Elliott is something that, while it has fluctuated, seems to be in his favor as well. He has scored 14 and 16 touchdowns in two of his seasons, and he scored 9 in the other two. If nine touchdowns is his floor, and 15+ is his potential, then he represents something none of the other guys does in that department – safety. One final question should also be asked here because it is instructive: Would you be surprised if Elliott recorded 20 touchdowns for the Cowboys this year? Probably not. He’s sniffed that number before and this offense on paper has the look of the best offense he’s ever played on. The sky is the limit in the touchdown department.
But in the end, if you ask any question of any pick in the top half of Round 1 the answer invariably points to Elliott as the top, or second best, option. His combination of durability, elite usage, touchdown upside, and playing for a dynamic offense is unparalleled. All of the other guys have a question in one of those categories.
Who has questions about...
- Durability? Cook
- Usage rates? Barkley
- Red zone rate? Barkley, Thomas
- Elite rushing/receiving yard upside? Kamara (rushing)
- Touchdown upside? Thomas, Barkley
- Offensive firepower? Barkley, Cook
None of those questions is a huge problem for those players, but you are deciding between five of the six best players in fantasy football and splitting hairs is what you have to do. Elliott is the safest play with the 1.02 pick, and he also happens to be a guy who has the least question marks on his path to producing as the second-best player in fantasy football for 2020. He’s got safety and he’s got upside. He is 2020’s second overall pick.
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