One key date on the summer NFL calendar has come and gone with no delays: the deadline for teams to sign franchise-tagged players to long term deals. Let’s look at the outcomes and project what’s next for these teams and players.
Shaq Barrett, EDGE, TB
What Happened: As expected, Barrett will play in 2020 under his franchise tag contract. He had previously said he understood that reaching a long term deal agreement would be difficult because of the coronavirus situation. The Bucs were committed to keeping the defense together for the Tom Brady Super Bowl window, retaining Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Ndamukong Suh in free agency this year.
What’s Next: Barrett is filing a grievance to be designated a defensive end instead of outside linebacker, a difference of about two million dollars. The team will argue that he plays more snaps with his hand off of the ground than on, and Barrett will argue that he lines at or near the line of scrimmage like a defensive lineman. Barrett could seek a compromise and meet in the middle at 16.8 million like the Ravens did with Matthew Judon. Either way Barrett should be pleased as an undrafted free agent who signed a four million dollar, one year deal last year.
Bud Dupree, EDGE, PIT
What Happened: The Steelers have more big names coming up in free agency next year, so it was no surprise that they did not commit long term money to Dupree, who only played like a first-round pick last year during his fifth year option. The team has little depth behind him and T.J. Watt, so they had no choice but to retain Dupree in this fashion and Dupree should be pleased to at least cash in to some extent after underachieving for so long.
What’s Next: Like Barrett, Dupree filed a grievance to be classified as a defensive end instead of outside linebacker. If he and the team can’t come to an agreement, it will go to an arbitrator. Dupree will get between 15.828 and 17.788 million for playing this season and he is set up in a great situation to cash in next year as long as his level of play doesn’t fall off.
A.J. Green, WR, CIN
What Happened: Green had previously said he wanted a long term deal or wanted the team to let him go, and he got neither. His ability to stay healthy and willingness to return to the field before he’s 100% and play for a team that hasn’t committed to him beyond this year are in question.
What’s Next: Green is ridiculously cheap in fantasy drafts as one of the best players of his era. The risk that he can’t stay healthy or doesn’t play at previous levels is more than offset by the low cost in drafts. He’ll make 17.865 million this year, potentially his last with the team that drafted him at #4 overall in 2011.
Anthony Harris, S, MIN
What Happened: There was never strong buzz that the Vikings would sign Harris long term and he was even rumored to be on the trade market with the Giants showing interest after he was tagged. Harris is a 28-year-old undrafted free agent who had his best season last year and the Vikings only freed up the room to tag him after opening up cap room with a Kirk Cousins extension.
What’s Next: Harris should be pleased to get 11.441 million this year and hope to land a long term deal next year. He’ll be important paired up with Harrison Smith to make up for mistakes a cornerback group that will have three new starters this year.
Derrick Henry, RB, TEN
What Happened: The Titans and Henry agreed to a four-year, 50 million dollar deal with 25.5 million guaranteed at the last second. Henry gets more commitment than he could if he was tagged this year and next year, and the Titans open up valuable cap room and send a message to the team that players who perform will get rewarded with long term security.
What’s Next: Henry is a solid pick in the second half of the first round of fantasy drafts even though he doesn’t contribute much in the passing game. He’ll remain the centerpiece of the offense.
Hunter Henry, TEN, LAC
What Happened: The Chargers didn’t give off any signals that they were going to seek a long term deal with Henry, so he’ll play out this season under the franchise tag.
What’s Next: Henry will make 10.607 million dollars this year, although the Chargers offense might not be the most conducive to big passing game numbers. He’ll need to prove he can hold up for 16 games to get a 2021 contract similar to the four-year, $44 million dollar deal fellow 2016 draft pick that Austin Hooper got this offseason.
Chris Jones, DT, KC
What Happened: The Chiefs and Jones agreed on a four-year, $85 million dollar deal on the last possible day. Jones had previously brought up Le’Veon Bell’s name in a not so thinly veiled holdout threat. Jones’ deal is one million more than DeForest Buckner got from the Colts on a four-year deal earlier this offseason after the 49ers traded him for the #13 overall pick.
What’s Next: Jones will be the cornerstone of the Chiefs interior defensive line as they keep the band together for another possible Super Bowl this year and beyond. He is one of the 2-3 most valuable defensive tackles in IDP leagues.
Matthew Judon, EDGE, BAL
What Happened: Judon was speculated to be a possible tag and trade candidate but nothing materialized on that front. He and the team avoided a grievance by meeting the middle and agreeing on 16.8 million as his salary for this year.
What’s Next: Judon will be a huge figure in the Ravens defense as the only established edge rusher. 2017 second round pick Tyus Bowser and 2019 third-rounder Jaylon Ferguson will compete for snaps on the other side and be on the spot to provide a credible pass rush threat opposite Judon.
Yannick Ngakoue, EDGE, JAX
What Happened: There was trade interest in Ngakoue, but the Jaguars did not seem interested in dealing him even though teams were willing to have Ngakoue play under the franchise tag contract or sign him to a long-term deal according to Adam Schefter. As of this writing, Ngakoue has still not signed his franchise tag tender.
What’s Next: Ngakoue appears to have no interest in signing a long term deal and while the window is closed for that this year, the whole situation will just start over in 2021 unless they trade him for pennies on the dollar like Houston did last year with Jadeveon Clowney. The Jaguars might get more next offseason, but still less than they would have this offseason a la the Trent Williams/Washington situation. Ngakoue could also opt out of playing this year if new terms allow it, or just hold out and hope to fully sour the relationship and force his way out via free agency even though his team would hold some leverage to keep him the way Le’Veon Bell forced his way out of Pittsburgh.
Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
What Happened: There was a deal on the table with 110 million guaranteed and somewhere between 33 and 35 million per year, but it was too close to the deadline to get anything done. Prescott will play this year on a one-year, 31.4 million dollar franchise tag deal.
What’s Next: Only Kirk Cousins and Drew Brees have been starting quarterbacks on a franchise tag deal and both went on to sign their next long term contract with another team. The Cowboys and Prescott could revisit this next offseason and his 2021 franchise tag number will be between 37 and 38 million if the Cowboys decide to go that route instead of paying him at market value. Patrick Mahomes II contract showed that even if the cap forecast is cloudy, quarterbacks are still going to be setting new markets and not settling for a lukewarm reception in contract negotiations.
Brandon Scherff, OG, WAS
What Happened: Any chance of Scherff and Washington coming to a long-term deal evaporated long before the deadline. He’ll play under his franchise tag deal. He previously rejected a deal reportedly worth over 13 million per year offered by the previous regime last year and will make 14.781 million this year.
What’s Next: Washington is going through a name change and turmoil around the culture under owner Dan Snyder, so they have bigger fish to fry long term than figuring out where Scherff fits in to their long term plans. If he can stay healthy and play as well as he normally does, he’ll be in the driver’s seat.
Justin Simmons, S, DEN
What Happened: The Broncos offered Simmons a contract that would have made him the 5th or 6th highest paid safety in the league earlier this week, but Simmons decided to play out 2020 for 11.441 million instead.
What’s Next: The relationship between Simmons and the Broncos doesn’t seem to be damaged by the negotiations. If Simmons stays at his current level of play, he should get something nearer to the terms he was looking for. In Vic Fangio’s defense, if Bradley Chubb can stay healthy and give the team a lethal edge rush combination along with new addition Jurrell Casey inside, pass rush pressure should give Simmons a great opportunity to notch big plays.
Joe Thuney, OG, NE
What Happened: No one expected a long term deal, but with the Patriots cap situation, some wondered if they would tag and trade Thuney. That was unnecessary and may never have been the team’s intention as they ended up opening up over 6.5 million dollars in cap room by settling grievances with Antonio Brown and the estate of Aaron Hernandez.
What’s Next: Thuney will get 14.781 million this year. As a player who has started every game of his career and played at a very high level, he should get to reset the market for interior offensive lineman even if the cap stays flat in 2021. The Patriots could always revisit tagging him again and trading him if they don’t want to pay the big price tag for a long term deal.
Leonard Williams, DL, NYG
What Happened: Dave Gettleman traded an early third-round pick for Williams but didn’t have enough clarity about his value to sign him to a long term deal, and in a face-saving move, tagged Williams. He will play 2020 under the franchise tag of 16.126 million.
What’s Next: If Williams can “prove it”, he’ll likely get a long term deal, maybe even during the season, but if he continues to underachieve his immense potential, the Giants will probably have to let him walk in 2021 and recoup whatever compensatory pick they can. If Gettleman could do it over, surely he wouldn’t have traded for Williams and instead made a play for him in what might have been a softer than expected market for his services.
One Last Note Regarding Kenyan Drake
Since the Cardinals only used the transition tag on Kenyan Drake, he can still be signed to a long-term deal, but it is not expected. He could still earn a deal next year if he plays similarly to the way he did down the stretch last year.
