This article is about a 4-minute read.
After releasing articles on the strategy of late-round quarterbacks and tight ends a couple of weeks ago and running backs earlier this week, the "upside" series concludes with wide receivers. This article will be similar to the one on running backs, which varied from the format for quarterbacks and tight ends due to positional scarcity in fantasy football. If the optimal strategy is to draft quarterbacks and tight ends late, fantasy GMs would be filling their rosters with running backs and wide receivers in the early rounds.
Therefore, this article will focus on late-round wide receivers. These players will always be backups on our fantasy team, but unlike running backs, they may not be backups on their NFL team.
Because we've spent at least seven rounds filling our roster with backs and receivers, we have a true WR1 and at least two additional starter-quality receivers. The goal with a late-round receiver is similar to the goal of late-round running backs. We want top-12 production. But at running back, we looked for players who needed injuries ahead of them to get on the field consistently.
At wide receiver, we're seeking a combination of players who would benefit from an injury ahead of them and players who may already be on the field but could command more opportunities with high-end play. Either way, we want WR1 upside late in the draft.
Signals of WR1 Potential
In fantasy football, the offensive unit as a whole has a significant impact on the production of a player. For wide receivers, this is especially true as they are dependent on quarterback play. There are also additional factors that can point to WR1 potential:
- Offense: how good is the unit and its quarterback?
- Big Play Ability: can the player score 10+ fantasy points with one touch?
- Red Zone Prowess and Usage: a tall receiver targeted on fades and jump balls has more touchdown potential than a smaller player
- Depth Chart Situation: how close is he to getting (and staying) on the field?
Here are a few late-round selections (WR30 or later as of this writing) and their current situations.
| Player | Offense | Big Plays | Red Zone | Depth Chart | Comments |
| Breshad Perriman | x | x | x | Starter if he can hold off rookie Mims. | |
| Preston Williams | x | x | 6'4"; Hurns and Wilson opted out due to COVID-19 | ||
| Mecole Hardman | x | x | 4.33 40-yard dash at the 2019 Combine + Mahomes' big arm | ||
| Will Fuller | x | x | WR1 talent but no more than 11 games in a season since 2016 | ||
| Jalen Reagor | x | x | x | Jeffery often hurt; Jackson aging and lacks versatility | |
| Golden Tate | x | Will either Tate or Slayton emerge in NYG? | |||
| Darius Slayton | x | x | Overtake Tate or near-even split? | ||
| Justin Jefferson | x | x | More "alpha" than Thielen. Quick chemistry with Cousins? | ||
| Mike Williams | x | x | Clear starter but how efficient will the offense be? |
And here are some Footballguys staff members commenting on a couple of these players from our "Deep Sleepers" series on wide receivers (and an update of that piece is coming).
Phil Alexander on Perriman:
Who's to say Perriman hasn't always been this good? His raw athleticism never translated in Baltimore, where injuries caused him to fall out of favor. But he helped make people believe in Baker Mayfield down the stretch in 2018 and looked like one of the league's better perimeter receivers in Tampa Bay after injuries sidelined Mike Evans and Chris Godwin last year. At the very least, Perriman (4.3 speed coming out of college) can approximate Robby Anderson's role as a deep-threat, and he brings more after-the-catch. As long as he can gel with the live-armed Sam Darnold, Perriman will have plenty of opportunities to blow past the value his current ADP implies. There isn't much standing between him and a 20% share of New York's targets.
Jeff Haseley on Perriman:
The Jets and fantasy offense don't exactly go hand in hand, but Perriman, the former first-round pick, had a strong second half to the 2019 season. Only Michael Thomas and DeVante Parker had more fantasy points in a PPR setting than Perriman from Week 13 on last year. Some of that could be due to the Buccaneers' high-volume passing offense, but at some point, we must credit Perriman for executing. Can he do it again in 2020 with the Jets? Did his confidence soar to the point where he knows he can compete with the league's best? If the answer is yes or maybe, he's worth the gamble as a receiver outside of the top 150.
Jordan McNamara on Tate:
Tate finished as WR44 in 2019 in only 11 games. That was his worst seasonal finish since 2011. Tate’s injury-shortened 2019 season is creating value in 2020. The Giants have young stars in Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley but wide receivers Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are far from WR1 options. Tate is the most established wide receiver on the depth chart which showed up in his 7.7 targets per game in 2019. Tate offers Daniel Jones a dependable option at the wide receiver position and the target volume to far outproduce his ADP.
Summary
Wide receivers are harder to "handcuff" than running back. When a team's number one back goes down, the burden of replacing that workload and production is often shouldered by one or two players. When a wide receiver is injured, a team can re-distribute targets to as many as a half-dozen players or more.
Identifying late-round WR1 upside is more difficult, but the players above offer a combination of playmaking talent and potential opportunity that could provide a shot in the arm for the fantasy GMs who roster them. Remember: these are backups on your roster because you drafted starters early in the draft. Aim high and play to dominate your league!
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com
