#Trendspotting: Week 16

Photo: Imagn Images

READER'S GUIDE

As we approach the end of the 2020 regular season, let's dig into a few specific trends across the league to try to highlight places where critical start/sit decisions in season-long leagues can be made, in addition to DFS lineup decisions

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• Addressing Injuries

Note: Be sure to follow me on Twitter @StillZam to keep up-to-date with any and all tweets regarding updates to this article, or any other piece I write.

Tweets of the Week

A list of wide receivers that have scored more fantasy points per game than Brandon Aiyuk (20.8) since Week 7:

1. Tyreek Hill (27.5)
2. Davante Adams (26.6)

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) December 21, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• It was mentioned last week, but Brandon Aiyuk is a bona fide fantasy stud in the final weeks of the 2020 campaign. With Deebo Samuel sidelined, Aiyuk has seen his role in San Francisco's passing attack grow each week. Although a piece of his remarkable volume may go to George Kittle, who is expected to return from a foot injury this weekend, Aiyuk's efficiency should make up for this potential, minimal dip in aerial volume. The 49ers' star rookie receiver has posted at least 19.7 DraftKings points in each of his last 6 outings, and a matchup against the up-tempo Arizona Cardinals will give him plenty of opportunities to reach that mark once again this weekend. Here, in Week 16, Aiyuk will likely be an under-rostered pass-catcher that presents a fantastic opportunity to leverage your lineups against the field in large-field GPPs. Expect the combination of George Kittle's potential return to action, Aiyuk's moderately increased price, and C.J. Beathard taking over at quarterback to scare the masses away from this play. However, fear not as the cream rises to the top-- Brandon Aiyuk has proven capable of producing in a suboptimal environment for weeks on end, and there is no reason to expect him to stop now.

BAL RBBC w/Ingram a healthy scratch:
Dobbins: 53% snaps, 15 touches, 81 yards, TD
Edwards: 41% snaps, 11 touches, 78 yards

— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) December 21, 2020

Commentary and Action Items:

• The Baltimore Ravens backfield remains a messy situation as we enter the final weeks of the 2020 regular season. While Mark Ingram has been filtered out of the offense, both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards continue to command work thanks to their stellar play, preventing one player from truly taking over as the bell-cow running back. On the whole, Baltimore's offense is firing on all cylinders right now, as they have scored over 40 points-per-game across their last three games. This weekend, in a clash against the New York Giants, the Ravens should light up the scoreboard in another overwhelmingly-likely victory. While neither player should be utilized in cash-games in DFS this weekend, both make for intriguing GPP selections. Accepting the risk of either player not getting a full workload is a viable approach to GPPs, where the upside each player provides more than makes up for the downside risk. As John notes above, both players have been exceptionally efficient in their playing time. Should either player either break off a chunk play or two and find the endzone or unexpectedly get the lion's share of the work in the team's backfield, the ceiling either of these players provides is exceptional. Do not roster them together, but both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are very strong GPP options in DFS in Week 16.

Kyler Murray looked much healthier on the field in Week 15, and the underlying numbers back that up.

He had three red zone rushes and two carries from inside the 10-yard line in Week 15.

Murray had just two total red zone rushing attempts in the previous four games.

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 21, 2020

Commentary and Action Items:

• Early in the season, Kyler Murray looked like a player that would carry season-long teams to championships. However, after a lingering shoulder injury, Murray's highly-valuable rushing volume dipped, and he began to attempt far shorter passes each week. Fortunately, Arizona's franchise quarterback looked like his old self last weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles, when his red zone rushing volume ticked back up, and his average depth-of-target (aDOT) also increased dramatically. Between weeks 11 and 14, Murray's aDOT was only 6.4 yards down the field, one of the lowest marks in the NFL. Last weekend, that number spiked back up to over 9.7 yards down the field, an encouraging sign for the health of his shoulder and Arizona's offense as a whole. In the final weeks of the season, Kyler Murray is a sure-fire starter in the championship weeks of any season-long league, and he is a weekly candidate to quarterback cash-game lineups. Earlier in the season, Murray was priced around $8,000 on DraftKings, and he was regularly one of the most popular cash-game quarterbacks. Now, at $7,500, with the return of his rushing floor and the upside of his down-field passing, Kyler Murray is a viable selection at quarterback in all formats of DFS contests.

Were it not for his rushing yds, Russell Wilson would have been the WORST fantasy quarterback of Week 15 Sunday. Even with them, only Colt McCoy scored fewer fantasy points. The question isn't who will you play over Wilson in Week 16, it's who will you play Wilson over...

— Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) December 21, 2020

Commentary and Action Items:

• Russell Wilson has been a fantasy catastrophe in recent weeks for a multitude of reasons. First, Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer were inexplicably unhappy with the results their early-season pass-happy offense yielded. To fix this non-problem, they vowed to enact a more run-heavy offensive attack, which they followed through with. Second, Chris Carson's return after a multi-week knee injury gave the Seahawks the option to hand the ball off to a running back they trust. Third, Wilson's absurd and unsustainable passing numbers "regressed towards the mean," as his unfathomable touchdown rate has declined down to a (still high) 7.6-percent. Overall, this spells trouble for Seattle's passing attack across the final two weeks of the regular season. They close their 2020 campaign with the Rams and 49ers, two above-average pass defenses, according to DVOA allowed this year. Although Seattle's highly talented core of aerial threats is liable to erupt at a moment's notice, the downward trend for this unit is undeniable. In the final weeks of the season, try to avoid the Seattle passing attack outside of small GPP bullets in DFS and D.K. Metcalf or Tyler Lockett in season-long formats where they rank far above the rest of your wide receiver options.

Back to full health and getting ideal game flow, D'Andre Swift yesterday:

* 42-of-66 snaps
* 71% of RB carries
* 5 targets for a 13% share
* Handled three of DET's five carries from inside the 5-yard line

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 21, 2020

Commentary and Action Items:

• D'Andre Swift returned to action in Week 15 after missing some time with a concussion, and he immediately re-assumed his role as the top-dog in Detroit's backfield. Swift is an immensely talented runner, and his recent uptick in volume has led to strong production. Before Week 9, Swift had just one game with double-digit carries or over 30 rushing yards on the season. Since Week 9, he has three such games in four outings. Under interim head coach Darren Bevell, the rookie running back is finally getting the chance to lead Detroit's backfield. Thanks to his impressive receiving volume, where he averages five targets-per-game across his last four outings, Swift can produce when the game flow typically would not favor a running back. This weekend, Swift will likely remain an afterthought in DFS, as he faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' strong run defense. However, on Saturday's short slate of games, D'Andre Swift is an elite GPP option. While the rest of the field zigs and avoids Swift against the Bucs, zag, and roster a talented running back in a growing role that provides value in multiple facets of his team's respective offense.

ADDRESSING INJURIES

Late in the season, staying on top of injury news as it comes in throughout the week and on Sunday morning is critical for successful DFS and season-long play. Here, we will identify some situations where we may be able to capitalize on said injury news and find underpriced and undervalued options to fill out DFS or season-long lineups with.

NOTE: This section will be updated through the weekend to reflect the most up-to-date injury reports.

Antonio Gibson: Limited in practice

Commentary and Action Items:

• In Gibson's absence, J.D. McKissic stepped up as Washington's number-one running back. Thanks to exceptional volume through the air, McKissic was a viable candidate for both season-long and DFS lineups. However, should Gibson return to action this weekend, McKissic's brief stint of fantasy relevancy will end. At $6,600, Gibson will not come at a discount if he does make his way onto the field this weekend. However, the matchup against Carolina's 27th-ranked defense, according to DVOA allowed, should provide Gibson with plenty of scoring opportunities. Consider rostering Gibson in DFS this weekend if he is able to suit up.

Cam Akers: OUT

Commentary and Action Items:

• Akers suffered a high ankle sprain late in the game last weekend against the New York Jets, and he is slated to miss the remainder of the 2020 regular season as a result. In his place, Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown will split the duties in Los Angeles' backfield. At the moment, it is tough to project who will command the majority of the work, but throughout his brief NFL career, Henderson has been the more efficient runner of the two. Brown's career mark of just 4.0 yards-per-carry is uninspiring, and before Akers' role grew in recent weeks, Henderson appeared to be the preferred option in the backfield for Sean McVay. Now, at the bottom-dollar price of just $4,800 on DraftKings, Darrell Henderson is one of the strongest salary-saving options on the slate in contests of all formats. On the other hand, at $4,000, Malcolm Brown is an exceptional GPP option this weekend, as his upside far outpaces that of the standard $4,000 on DraftKings.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: DOUBTFUL

Commentary and Action Items:

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire also went down last weekend with a left ankle sprain and a strained hip. He is unlikely to play this weekend against the Atlanta Falcons, and in his place, Le'Veon Bell is likely to return to prominence this weekend. Bell has seen limited action this year for the Chiefs, but three weeks ago, when Edwards-Helaire did not play against the Denver Broncos, Bell led the team with 11 carries to go along with 3 targets. After Edwards-Helaire went down last weekend, Bell out-snapped Darrell Williams, his primary competition for touches, 33 to 22. At just $5,800, Le'Veon Bell's projected floor and upside make him one of the strongest options in the mid-range on DraftKings in Week 16. Should Bell command a bell-cow level of playing time and volume in Kansas City's backfield, he could be one of the slate's highest-scoring running backs.

Raheem Mostert: OUT

Commentary and Action Items:

• Raheem Mostert re-injured his ankle last weekend against the Dallas Cowboys, which ended his 2020 season. Jeff Wilson stepped up and carried the ball 16 times for 60 yards and a score in his place. Tevin Coleman, the team's third-most-active running back in the game, managed just three carries on the afternoon. Entering the final weeks of the 2020 season, Jeff Wilson is the running back to have in San Francisco's dynamic rushing attack that regularly produces stout rushing totals, regardless of the pedigree of the ball-carrier. Wilson is a viable RB2 for the championship weeks in season-long formats, and at the meager price tag of only $5,000 on DraftKings, he is a strong selection in contests of all formats in Week 16.