#Trendspotting: Week 15

Photo: Imagn Images

READER'S GUIDE

As we approach the end of the 2020 regular season, let's dig into a few specific trends across the league to try to highlight places where critical start/sit decisions in season-long leagues can be made, in addition to DFS lineup decisions

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• Pace of Play

As injury information becomes available later in the week, keep an eye out for an update to this article diving into the data and trends regarding backup players stepping into starting roles and how the could impact your DFS contests or season-long playoffs.

Note: Be sure to follow me on Twitter @StillZam to keep up-to-date with any and all tweets regarding updates to this article, or any other piece I write.

Tweets of the Week

Since Drew Lock returned from injury in Week 6, just 55% of Jerry Jeudy's targets have been catchable — which ranks last among 55 qualifying WRs in this span. Tim Patrick ranks third from last at 61%.

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) December 15, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• Let this tweet serve to prove that all targets are not created equal. Jerry Jeudy is undoubtedly one of the most refined young receivers in the NFL-- his ability to create consistent separation this early in his NFL career, despite facing number-one cornerbacks each week, is remarkable. However, his recent production has fallen off a cliff for various reasons. First, Noah Fant and Tim Patrick have seen their roles in Denver's passing attack grow during recent weeks, lessening Jeudy's weekly volume to a worrying level. Additionally, his targets are not particularly valuable. Despite his ability to get open down the field, Drew Lock is one of the league's worst starting quarterbacks. Lock's ineptitude limits Jeudy's fantasy value regardless of the volume. This inability to consistently connect with top-end pass catchers is a feature of Drew Lock's play, not a bug. Last season, Courtland Sutton saw a similar drop in production with Lock at the helm. Although Jeudy, and other Denver pass-catchers, may be enticing on the Saturday two-game slate of games, do not fall into the trap of rostering the Broncos passing attack against the Buffalo Bills in DFS or season-long formats.

RB Leaders in Week 14 Snap%

1. Miles Sanders (81%)
2. Cam Akers (79%)
3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (74%)
4. Mike Davis (73%)
5. Aaron Jones (70%)
6. Dalvin Cook (68%)
7. Ronald Jones II (67%)

If I showed this to myself in August I'd be positive I was going to win all my leagues

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) December 15, 2020

Commentary and Action Items:

• Across the league, there is a handful of running back situations changing right before our eyes as season-long playoffs wear on. In Los Angeles, Cam Akers has a stranglehold on the number-one spot in the Rams backfield. Akers has surpassed 20 carries in each of the last 2 games, playing 63-percent of snaps in Week 13 and 79-percent of snaps in Week 14. The rookie running back is a bona fide fantasy star in the final weeks of the season, especially this weekend in the team's matchup with the New York Jets. Lock Akers into season-long lineups and consider building around him in DFS at the modest price of $6,600.
• Although Miles Sanders' role in Philadelphia's backfield has not changed dramatically, his usage with Jalen Hurts starting at quarterback increased in last week's upset of the New Orleans Saints. Sanders player 81-percent of the Eagles' snaps last weekend, and he tallied 19 scoring opportunities, which he converted into over 135 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. Doug Pederson simplified Philadelphia's offense with a rookie quarterback at the helm, which led to an increase in Miles Sanders' usage to take some pressure off of Jalen Hurts. This weekend, the Philadelphia Eagles head to Arizona to take on the up-tempo Cardinals inside the dome of State Farm Stadium. Playing in a dome typically fosters a scoring-friendly offensive environment, and Sanders should see similar usage this weekend in Hurts' second career start. Consider Sanders a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 in season-long formats, and at $6,900 on DraftKings, he makes for an elite GPP running back option.
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire played a season-high 74-percent of the Chiefs' offensive snaps last weekend against the Miami Dolphins. The Chiefs jumped out to a commanding 31-10 lead over the Dolphins midway through the game, which enabled a run-heavy offensive approach. Edwards-Helaire registered 16 carries to go along with 6 targets throughout the game after sitting out the team's game against Denver due to illness. Despite the presence of Le'Veon Bell to spell him from time-to-time, Edwards-Helaire is the preferred option for Eric Bieniemy and Andy Reid. After this week's clash with the New Orleans Saints, which is expected to be a high-scoring affair in Mercedes-Benz Superdome, the Chiefs have an exceptionally soft schedule to close the season. Edwards-Helaire will be a mainstay of starting lineups in season-long leagues for the remainder of the playoffs, and at only $5,800 on DraftKings, he is an intriguing option for lineups in all styles of contests for Week 15.

Jonathan Taylor received a touch or target on a season-high 64.7% of his snaps in Week 14. His previous high was 58.3% in Week 3. https://t.co/1bytPWL2b7

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) December 14, 2020

Commentary and Action Items:

• After a perplexing mid-season drop in playing time, Jonathan Taylor has returned to his role as the Indianapolis Colts' number-one running back in recent weeks. Inexplicably, in weeks 8, 9, and 10, Taylor played only 34-percent, 31-percent, and 24-percent of the Colts' offensive snaps, respectively. Fantasy managers and analysts across the industry sounded alarm bells after that three-game stretch, fearing that Taylor may have lost his job as the Colts' number-one running back to Nyheim Hines or that the backfield had transformed into a true timeshare. Thankfully, in the three games since, Taylor has played 55-percent, 48-percent, and 56-percent of Indianapolis' offensive snaps in each game, respectively. As Rich noted, Taylor registered a carry or target on an astounding 64.7-percent of his offensive snaps last week. Jonathan Taylor's fantasy outlook for Week 15 is exceptionally bright, as he is rounding into form just in time for a matchup with the Houston Texans' 29th-ranked run defense, according to DVOA. He is an expensive option on DraftKings this weekend at $7,200, which likely makes him a GPP-only option, but he is a must-start running back in all season-long formats.

PACE OF PLAY

Offenses in the NFL morph and transform from week-to-week based on personnel, matchup, and a variety of other factors. However, by now, each team in the league has established an identity for who they are and what they try to do. The pace at which a team plays-- and forces its opponents to play-- is a sticky statistic at this point in the season that can help us to make smarter decisions regarding start/sit options throughout the fantasy playoffs.

FASTEST OFFENSES IN NEUTRAL SITUATIONS

1. Arizona Cardinals: 26.8 seconds/play
2. Dallas Cowboys: 27.36 seconds/play
3. Tennessee Titans: 28.6 seconds/play
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 28.7 seconds/play
5. Los Angeles Chargers: 28.9 seconds/play

SLOWEST OFFENSES IN NEUTRAL SITUATIONS

1. San Francisco 49ers: 33.1 seconds/play
2. Baltimore Ravens: 32.6 seconds/play
3. Green Bay Packers: 32.6 seconds/play
4. New Orleans Saints: 32.1 seconds/play
5. Minnesota Vikings: 32.0 seconds/play

Commentary and Action Items:

• Unsurprisingly, Kliff Kingsbury's air raid offense in Arizona is the league's fastest offensive attack. Checking in at 26.8 seconds-per-play, the Cardinals offense operates, on average, over 2.0 seconds faster than the 5th-fastest team in the league. The impacts this has on the team's offensive production is well-documented, as Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins have benefited from that all year. However, this weekend, the Philadelphia Eagles' offense stands to benefit from Arizona's fast offense as well. Jalen Hurts is a viable starting quarterback this weekend in this up-tempo matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Hurts' combination of rushing and passing production is critical for his fantasy viability, and, additionally, this game is taking place in the dome of State Farm Stadium, which assists the scoring attacks. On Arizona's side of the football, Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and Kenyan Drake are the most enticing fantasy options. As FootballGuys' own Sigmund Bloom mentioned on Twitter, Chase Edmonds is a game-time decision for this matchup, which bolsters Drake's viability this weekend as well, making him a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2.
• In an intriguing clash of styles, the fast-paced Dallas Cowboys take on the San Francisco 49ers this weekend, who check-in as the slowest team in the league this year. This contrast in offensive approach should serve to benefit the 49ers while it works against the Cowboys. The most enticing fantasy option for the 49ers this weekend is Brandon Aiyuk, who is the team's new number-one receiver with Deebo Samuel sidelined. Last weekend, after Samuel re-aggravated a hamstring injury on the team's first offensive snap, Aiyuk tallied 16 targets, which he converted into 10 receptions for 119 yards. Aiyuk is an elite DFS selection this weekend, as noted in The Sharp Report, and he makes for an exceptional season-long starter as well. In the ground game, Raheem Mostert also apparently re-injured himself last weekend, as he is tending to an ankle injury throughout this week. Should Mostert miss out on this Week 15 clash with the Cowboys' horrific run defense, Jeff Wilson will step into the starting role, and he, too, makes for an elite DFS selection while grading as an RB2 or FLEX option in season-long leagues.
• One under-the-radar situation to keep an eye on is the Detroit Lions' offense this weekend. The Lions head to Tennessee to take on the Titans' up-tempo offense (in neutral-script situations), and the combination of the pace-of-play with Tennessee's mediocre defense could lead to a ceiling performance for the Lions' passing attack. Tennessee's pass-rush is one of the weakest in the league, and overall they rank 28th in DVOA allowed against the pass this season. Be sure to monitor the status of Matt Stafford ahead of this matchup, as he left last week's game early due to an injury, but if he is able to suit up, he makes for an elite GPP quarterback option in DFS. On the outside, T.J. Hockenson and Marvin Jones have established themselves as the top two receiving options down the stretch while Kenny Golladay is sidelined. Both players have recorded 20 targets across the last two weeks, and Hockenson even makes for a strong cash-game selection and season-long starter at a thin tight end position. Jones, however, is too pricey for cash-games at $5,700 on DraftKings, but he makes for a WR3 or flex option in season-long formats if Matt Stafford is able to suit up.