Photo: Imagn Images

READER'S GUIDE

As we approach the midway point of the 2020 season, let's dig into a variety of trends across the league. With this broader and more in-depth iteration of #Trendspotting, we will primarily focus on season-long formats as we decipher which trends that developed throughout the first seven weeks are here to stay in the long-term.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• Re-evaluating Play-callers

Note: Be sure to follow me on Twitter @StillZam to keep up-to-date with any and all tweets regarding updates to this article, or any other piece I write.

TWEETS OF THE WEEK

Taysom Hill (Week 11)

- Passing: 18 for 23, 233 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
- Rushing: 10 for 51 yards, 2 TDs
- Fantasy Points: 24.4 (3rd)
- PFF Pass Grade: 81.1 (6th)

** also had 73 passing yards and 1 passing touchdown (6.9 fantasy points) negated due to penalty

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 23, 2020

Commentary and Analysis:

• In short, Taysom Hill is a QB1 in the coming weeks. The New Orleans Saints awarded arguably the most versatile player in the NFL this past offseason with a $20,000,000 contract extension. Head coach Sean Payton has repeatedly stated his admiration for Hill in all facets of the game. Following a brutal hit to Drew Brees that will leave him sidelined for weeks to come, Hill's time to shine under center is finally here. This past weekend, in his first career start, Hill shined bright against the Atlanta Falcons. His versatility as a runner and a passer added another dimension to New Orleans' offense, making this a much more explosive unit. For fantasy purposes, this combination of rushing and passing affords managers a stable floor of production, with Taysom Hill manning the quarterback position. Additionally, on the outside, Michael Thomas re-emerged as the passing game's focal point in Hill's debut as a starter. Thomas hauled in 9 of his 12 targets last week in his first 100-yard game of the season. Typically, when an inexperienced quarterback is thrust into action, they rely heavily on the offense's most reliable short and intermediate targets. Fortunately, this is where Michael Thomas's bread is buttered. Expect both Michael Thomas and Taysom Hill to carry fantasy teams through the final weeks of the regular season in season-long formats. Also, both make for fantastic DFS options in all formats this weekend, as neither player's respective price has properly adjusted for the drastic changes to New Orleans' offense.

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson on throws 15+ yards down the field this season:
* 20 catches (most in the NFL)
* 597 yards (most in the NFL)
* 29.65 yards per catch and 3 TD

It's taken him a whole 12 weeks to become one of the best vertical threats in the league.

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 25, 2020

Commentary and Action Items:

• Field Yates did not mix words when he called Justin Jefferson one of the league's best deep threats just 12 weeks into his NFL career, and he is not wrong. Jefferson, who was a bit overshadowed last year at LSU by the incredible performances of Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Burrow in the team's offense, is a supremely talented pass-catcher, and he is proving that early in his NFL career. Now, with Adam Thielen on the COVID-19 reserve list, Jefferson's number-one competition for targets in Minnesota's low-volume passing-attack may be taken out of the equation. The drop-off in talent from Thielen to his potential replacement is enormous, and a large portion of the volume that typically goes to Thielen should go Jefferson's way. On a per-route-run basis, Jefferson is the NFL's most efficient receiver amongst players that have run at least 100 routes this season. Jefferson should not be on the bench this weekend under any circumstance when the Vikings take on the Carolina Panthers. In DFS, Jefferson remains underpriced, and if Thielen is unable to suit up this weekend, Minnesota's rookie receiver is one of the strongest plays on the slate at any position.

The danger of relying on Year to Date defensive rankings is that you miss recent trends like this. The Seahawks defense has become respectable https://t.co/pbgljLzOP9

— Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) November 25, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• FootballGuys' own Sigmund Bloom could not have crafted a more perfect tweet for #Trendspotting this week. Subtly, Seattle's defense, especially across their last two games, has been a respectable unit. The improving health of the team, combined with maturation and a little bit of regression, has led to improvement on the defensive side of the football for the Seahawks. Jamal Adams, the headlining acquisition for Seattle this past offseason, appears to be at full strength finally, and his blitzing talents have been on full display in recent weeks. Adams leads all defensive backs in quarterback pressures this season, with more than double the next-closest player's amount, despite playing in only six games. Last week, the Seahawks limited Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals to 21 points and less than 270 yards through the air. One week prior, the Los Angeles Rams' potent passing attack put up just 23 points with 0 passing touchdowns. This is not to say that Seattle's defense is a strength whatsoever. Rather, this is not a unit to blindly target week-in and week-out expecting fantasy goodness. This week, temper expectations for the Philadelphia Eagles' struggling offense despite what appears to be a soft matchup at first glance.

RE-EVALUATING PLAY-CALLERS

Expected versus Actual dropback rate

Top 4: Seahawks, Bills, Chiefs, Steelers
Bottom 4: Ravens, Browns, Titans, Patriots pic.twitter.com/zwwTPcIMNX

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 24, 2020

Commentary

• Atop the charts, as the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL, are the Seattle Seahawks and Buffalo Bills, much like what we saw early in the year.
• Trailing the top two, the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers rate as the second and third-most pass-heavy offenses. Both offenses have increased their passing rate dramatically since we last evaluated play-calling tendencies.
• Drifting towards the middle of the pack, the Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers have decreased their passing rate in recent weeks.
• Coming up in the rear, the New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, Minnesota Vikings, and Baltimore Ravens, unsurprisingly, all run the NFL's most run-heavy offensive attacks.

Action Items

• The Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks remain offenses to target in season-long formats and DFS lineups this season, as their passing attacks continue to air the ball out. In Buffalo, Stefon Diggs is in contention to be the number-one wide receiver in fantasy football this season. Around him, Cole Beasley and John Brown both have the potential for big late-season surges. In Seattle, there is nothing new happening. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will continue to be two of the NFL's best producers on the outside. Particularly in GPPs, when deciding between which Seahawks receiver to roster, favor the player with the lower projected-percent-rostered number, via the projections provided here at FootballGuys by Devin Knotts. Both players typically project very similarly on a weekly basis, and gaining leverage on the field by selecting the more contrarian option should pay dividends.
• The Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers stand out as the two teams that have recently increased their passing rate the most. In Kansas City, the uptick in passing was expected, as Andy Reid would be foolish to not maximize the opportunity given to Patrick Mahomes II within this offense. As a result of the increased passing volume and the acquisition of Le'Veon Bell, Clyde Edwards-Helaire's rushing volume has fallen off a cliff, making him an RB2 or flex option in season-long formats down the stretch. In DFS, as always, this passing attack is a premier stacking option. If there ever comes a week that this offense is a contrarian selection, hop on that opportunity immediately, as chances like such-- to gain exposure to the highest-upside offense in the league at a moderate percent-rostered number-- are few and far between. In Pittsburgh, numerous fantasy-viable wide receivers have emerged as a result of the offense's pass-heavy approach. Diontae Johnson is a bonafide stud, Chase Claypool is an emerging specimen on the outside, and JuJu Smith-Schuster is one of the most dangerous slot receivers in the league. Johnson consistently commands the highest volume of the trio, but all three make for strong plays each week. In Pittsburgh's rescheduled clash with the Baltimore Ravens, this weekend consider stacking the Steelers' passing game in GPPs as a contrarian high-volume unit with a surplus of talent.
• Following the return of Miles Sanders, the play-calling profile of the Philadelphia Eagles' offense has changed dramatically. In his absence, the Eagles relied upon their passing game, despite mediocre efficiency numbers in that phase of the game. Since his return, Philadelphia has leaned heavily open their efficient rushing attack. However, negative game scripts ultimately limit the total volume Miles Sanders and Boston Scott see on the ground. After accounting for the game script, as Ben Baldwin does in the chart in his tweet above, Philadelphia's offense is approximately a league-average unit concerning rushing and passing frequency. Given the team's struggles through the air, especially since their bye week, significant downgrades to the likes of Travis Fulgham, Jalen Reagor, Dallas Goedert, and the rest of Philadelphia's receiving corps are in store down the stretch. At best, Fulgham and Reagor top-out as WR3 options in small leagues or WR2 options in large and deep leagues. Goedert, on the other hand, is still a viable starting tight end, given the general lack of options at the position, but he is far from a plug-and-play selection. At quarterback, despite the optimistic sentiment in recent editions of #Trendspotting, Carson Wentz's outlook is becoming increasingly bleak given his inability to find and hit open receivers within the structure of this offense. In Philadelphia's Monday night matchup with the Seattle Seahawks this weekend, consider fading the team's passing attack on the Primetime slate of games in favor of the team's more efficient run game.