#Trendspotting: Week 10

Photo: Imagn Images

READER'S GUIDE

As we approach the midway point of the 2020 season, let's dig into a variety of trends across the league. With this broader and more in-depth iteration of #Trendspotting, we will primarily focus on season-long formats as we decipher which trends that developed throughout the first seven weeks are here to stay in the long-term.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• Looks Can be Deceiving

Note: Be sure to follow me on Twitter @StillZam to keep up-to-date with any and all tweets regarding updates to this article, or any other piece I write.

Tweets of the Week

Jerry Jeudy's role in Drew Lock's five full starts this year:

* 8.4 targets per game (would be 14th among WRs)
* 35% share of air yards (would be 13th)

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 9, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• Jerry Jeudy entered the NFL this season as one of the most refined route-running rookies that the league has seen in years. While at Alabama, Jeudy had to compete with three other first-round talents for targets, which put a hard cap on his overall production. However, anyone that turned on an Alabama game at any point in the season knew that this is a truly special player we have on our hands. Now, midway through his first NFL season, Jeudy is converting this uncanny ability to get open against the league's best defensive backs. As Graham Barfield noted, both of Jeudy's most critical volume measurements at the wide receiver position, target share and market share of team air yards, both rank amongst the top-13 pass-catchers in the NFL overall with Drew Lock under center. Although his early-season production was uninspiring, Jeudy is coming into his own. The chemistry between he and Lock is developing to the point that Jeudy is the go-to option whenever Lock is in doubt, and the results have followed. Jeudy recorded the first 100-yard game of his career last weekend against the Atlanta Falcons, and a soft matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders this weekend is a prime opportunity for Jeudy to record a second. Plug Jeudy into starting lineups in all season-long formats this weekend, and he is an elite DFS option for both cash-games and tournaments given his increased receiving volume.

Accurate Target%
[All WRs, min. 50 targets]

1. JuJu Smith-Schuster (89%)
2. Tyler Boyd (87%)
3. Cole Beasley (87%)
....
36. Jerry Jeudy (69%)
37. Michael Gallup (68%)
38. DJ Chark (67%)
Last / 39. Darius Slayton (67%)

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 10, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• Accurate target% can generally be skewed by the depth of a player's average target. Atop the list in Scott Barrett's tweet sit three slot receivers whose targets typically come on short and intermediate passes, which are generally easier to complete. However, there is no underlying reason behind players like Jerry Jeudy, Michael Gallup, D.J. Chark, and Darius Slayton registering startlingly-low accurate target% numbers at the bottom of the list. Aside from Jeudy, who we just took a more in-depth look at above, all three of the other players listed stand out as potential buy-low options down the home stretch of the 2020 fantasy football season. D.J. Chark will likely be the most expensive of the three options, as his production has been the most impressive of the bunch, but his talent level warrants the steeper price. On tape, Chark jumps off the screen as a fundamentally sound player whose production has been limited by archaic play-calling and sub-par quarterback play. Should Jake Luton show the ability to air the ball out, as he did at times in his NFL debut, Chark could be in for a major second-half breakout this year. Elsewhere, both Gallup's and Slayton's recent production has been limited by poor quarterback play. In Dallas, it seems that the Cowboys' situation under center could not possibly get any worse at this point. Gallup's value is at an all-time low, and he may be available on the waiver wire at this point. If that is the case, consider scooping him up and stashing him on the bench, waiting for the tide to turn and the Cowboys to find some semblance of consistency at quarterback.

Curtis Samuel has 38 catches on 43 targets with 20 first downs receiving.

He has caught 19-of-20 targets for 14 1D on 3rd Downs this season.

Robby Anderson and DJ Moore have combined for 20 3rd down receptions and 15 1D.

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 9, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• Curtis Samuel entered the NFL two years ago as an incredibly versatile offensive weapon out of Ohio State. In college, Samuel primarily played running back, but he played a significant role in the team's passing game. In the NFL, on the same roster as Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers, under their previous coaching regime, opted to move him outside to wide receiver permanently. Now, with Joe Brady and Matt Rhule calling the shots on offense, Samuel's role in the offense has finally been catered to his talents. Last week, Samuel registered his first 100-yard receiving game of the season when he hauled in all 9 of his targets against the Kansas City Chiefs. Additionally, Samuel is being used in the backfield on occasion, where he has tallied at least 3 carries in 5 out of 9 games, finding the endzone twice on the ground. As Rich Hribar noted, Curtis Samuel has been Teddy Bridgewater's favorite target in the highest-leverage situations. While D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson have dominated early-downs, Samuel's third-down production nearly matches what that pairing has posted in total. Bridgewater's level of confidence in Samuel is cause for optimism, despite his erratic results to this point in the season. Also, Christian McCaffrey sustained another injury last weekend in his long-awaited return to action, which could lead to increased rushing usage for Samuel in the coming weeks. Consider plugging Curtis Samuel into WR3 or FLEX positions in season-long formats in the coming weeks. In DFS, his floor of production is not safe enough to warrant consideration in cash-games, but his ceiling is extremely enticing for GPPs.

#TeamPreseason poster man Jakobi Meyers last two games with Edelman and NKeal out:

* 144-of-146 snaps
* 55 snaps in slot
* 24 targets for a 40% (!!!) share
* 18-227-0 line

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 10, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• Jakobi Meyers, a second-year receiver out of NC State, has emerged as the undoubted number-one receiver in New England, while Julian Edelman heals from recent knee surgery. Meyers came onto the scene, as Adam Levitan noted, last year during the preseason when the undrafted free agent earned a spot on New England's 53-man roster. Now, with the Patriots' receiving corps exceptionally depleted, Meyers has risen to the top and is the team's undeniable number-one pass-catcher. Meyers has commanded 24 targets and hauled in 18 of them across his last 2 outings, proving that it is possible for a pass-catcher in New England's run-heavy offense to be fantasy-relevant. Not only is Meyers now fantasy-relevant, but he is one of the smartest potential acquisitions on the waiver wire right now. The FootballGuys consensus projections have Meyers pegged as the number-15 overall wide receiver for Week 11, and the outlook beyond this weekend is bright. Expect Jakobi Meyers' market share of targets in New England's offense to convert into further fantasy production down the line. Look to scoop Jakobi Meyers off the waiver wire in any league where he is available, as he will immediately serve as a startable option. Additionally, Meyers' ceiling of production is far beyond what he has shown thus far, as he has yet to find the endzone despite his dominance over his pass-catching peers within the Patriots' passing attack.

LOOKS CAN BE DECEIVING

DvP metrics can often be misleading, as the raw fantasy totals a team allows does not account for the quality of opponents they have faced. Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS) does just that, by grading team defenses on a curve according to the average performance of their opponents. Finding disparities between NSoS and DvP will help us to identify potentially under-the-radar options for both season-long and DFS lineups.

Here, overperforming defenses are the ones we want to target; their DvP to this point in the season makes them seem like far stingier defenses than they truly are after accounting for their strength of schedule. Underperforming defenses have seen their DvP metrics damaged by a difficult schedule, and they are likely to improve in coming weeks against lesser competition.

Quarterbacks

Overperforming Defenses

• Arizona Cardinals | NSoS: 31st, DvP: 15th
• New York Giants | NSoS: 27th, DvP: 11th
• Cincinnati Bengals | NSoS: 29th, DvP: 16th

Underperforming Defenses

• Jacksonville Jaguars | NSoS: 15th, DvP: 30th
• Miami Dolphins | NSoS: 5th, DvP: 20th
• Minnesota Vikings | NSoS: 16th, DvP: 28th

Commentary and Action Items

• After last week's eruption against the Seattle Seahawks, Josh Allen leads the Bills into action against another NFC West foe this weekend when they travel to Arizona. The Cardinals' pass defense in 2020 has posted respectable numbers on the whole. However, these metrics have been bolstered by an exceptionally soft schedule that featured games against Tua Tagovailoa, Andy Dalton, and Joe Flacco across their last four outings. When adjusting for the level of competition Arizona has faced across its last 5 games, the Cardinals check in with the league's 2nd-worst fantasy defense against quarterbacks. Once again, Josh Allen is a must-play season-long fantasy option this weekend. Much like last weekend, he is worth paying up for in DFS and warrants consideration in all contest formats. Typically the saving salary at the quarterback position is the optimal approach for cash-games, but Allen bucks that trend this weekend and is perhaps the best cash-game option under-center in Week 10.
• In conjunction with Josh Allen being a strong play this weekend, consider stacking him, once again, with his strong group of pass-catchers. Should Allen exceed expectations, some combination of Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and John Brown are likely to do so as well, making the Bills an exceptional GPP stack.
• Leading up to Philadelphia's bye week, #Trendspotting highlighted Carson Wentz as an elite fantasy asset throughout the second half of the season. This week, a matchup with the New York Giants' horrendous pass defense will keep Carson Wentz in contention as a QB1 option. An uninspiring Sunday Night Football performance against the Dallas Cowboys may have pumped the breaks on the Wentz second-half breakout, but a soft matchup against the Giants' defense, which ranks 27th in the NFL in NSoS vs. quarterbacks, should help him get back on track. Confidently start Carson Wentz in all season-long fantasy football formats. Additionally, Wentz is one of the best mid-priced options for DFS lineups, and he is viable in cash-games and GPPs in Week 10.
• Wentz's corps of pass-catchers is improving by the week, and in a soft matchup against the New York Giants, his wide receivers are likely to find success along with him. Look to Travis Fulgham and Jalen Reagor as the strongest options to stack with Wentz, and both also warrant consideration independently in cash-games at their respective prices.
• On the opposite end of the spectrum, Justin Herbert will be heading into a deceptively difficult matchup this weekend against the Miami Dolphins. Miami's defense, led by Brian Flores, a former defensive assistant for the New England Patriots, has the makings of a truly impressive unit for years to come. Despite unimpressive personnel, the Dolphins' detailed defensive metrics resemble a top-end defense rather than the mid-tier unit that they appear to be on the surface. Throughout their last five games, despite matchups against Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray included within the span, Miami's defense has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks after adjusting for their strength of schedule. Exercise caution with rookie quarterback Justin Herbert this weekend when finalizing lineups in either season-long or DFS, as this matchup is much more difficult than it may appear to be at first glance.

Running Backs

Overperforming Defenses

• Buffalo Bills | NSoS: 25th, DvP: 15th
• Los Angeles Chargers | NSoS: 30th, DvP: 21st
• New England Patriots | NSoS: 27th, DvP: 18th

Underperforming Defenses

• Las Vegas Raiders | NSoS: 12th, DvP: 28th
• Minnesota Vikings | NSoS: 7th, DvP: 20th
• Carolina Panthers | NSoS: 16th, DvP: 29th

Commentary and Action Items

• Despite underwhelming in his first game as the Arizona Cardinals' starting running back last weekend, Chase Edmonds is primed for a breakout this weekend against a susceptible Buffalo Bills run defense. Buffalo's defense this season has posted respectable numbers against opposing running backs, ranking 15th in the league in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing running backs. However, when accounting for the quality of opposing rushing attacks that the Bills have gone up against, Buffalo grades as one of the NFL's weakest run defense. Chase Edmonds played almost 100-percent of Arizona's total offensive snaps last week against the Miami Dolphins and, while the results were unimpressive, he is an elite running back option this week. Kenyan Drake is likely to miss this game, and if he does, Edmonds should be locked into all season-long starting lineups and also considered in all formats of DFS contests here in Week 10.
• In recent weeks, the Denver Broncos' backfield has devolved into a fantasy football wasteland. While Melvin Gordon impressed early on, with Phillip Lindsay sidelined due to injury, he has since regressed mightily. Although Phillip Lindsay is, by far, the more efficient runner of the two, the team's investment in Melvin Gordon has led to Gordon receiving an unwarranted majority of snaps and touches. Now, to make matters worse, the Broncos take on a subtly-strong run defense when they battle their intradivisional foes, the Las Vegas Raiders. While the team's surface-level metrics make the Raiders look like one of the league's worst defenses against running backs, as they rank 28th in the league in raw fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, their NSoS tells a different story. After adjusting for the team's strength of schedule faced and the production allowed to each respective running back on their schedule, the Las Vegas Raiders rank 12th-best in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Confidently fade all Denver Broncos running backs this week in all forms of fantasy football. Aside from extremely deep season-long leagues, it is difficult to justify starting either Melvin Gordon or Phillip Lindsay. In DFS, there are far better options available at comparable pricepoints than either of these players taking part in a timeshare against a sneakily-stout run defense.
• Much like Denver's backfield, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' backfield is also a complete mess right now. Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette have both shown flashes of greatness throughout the first part of the season, but neither has been able to command the lion's share of the work. Expect more of the same on this front in Week 10. This weekend, despite the apparently soft matchup against Carolina's run defense, make the difficult decision to avoid starting either Tampa Bay running back in season-long leagues and look elsewhere for viable DFS running back options. Carolina's run defense may appear to be one of the worst in the NFL; this is largely a product of a difficult schedule as a part of the NFC South. Intradivisional matchups against Alvin Kamara, who has lit the world on fire through nine weeks this season, and Todd Gurley, who is scoring touchdowns at a startling rate, have skewed Carolina's numbers for the worse. In reality, the Panthers' run defense grades as a mid-tier unit, which itself is not a particularly scary proposition. However, when pairing an underrated defensive unit with a messy backfield situation like that of Tampa Bay's, it makes for a perfect situation to steer clear of, especially in DFS, when the field may fall for the trap of Carolina's surface-level run defense numbers.