#Trendspotting: Week 8

Photo: Imagn Images

READER'S GUIDE

As we approach the midway point of the 2020 season, let's dig into a variety of trends across the league. With this broader and more in-depth iteration of #Trendspotting, we will primarily focus on season-long formats as we decipher which trends that developed throughout the first seven weeks are here to stay in the long-term.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• Injury Impacts
• Pace of Play
• Play-calling Tendencies
• Regression Candidates
• Quarterback Tendencies
• A Deep Dive into the Trenches

TWEETS OF THE WEEK

David Montgomery's weekly PPR finishes in 4 games without Tarik Cohen: RB26 RB13 RB14 RB21

Lots of volume. Little efficiency. Very 2019 Todd Gurley like

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 27, 2020

Commentary and Action Items:

• Earlier in the season, I noted that David Montgomery's newfound volume could lead him into RB1 or RB2 range in season-long formats. Now, multiple weeks into his tenure as Chicago's bell-cow running back, it might be time to bail on this experiment in season-long formats. Montgomery's efficiency numbers are eerily similar to what Todd Gurley posted last season in Los Angeles. While the volume is there, the lack of a threatening passing game and a depleted offensive line leave Montgomery incapable of gashing opposing defenses, as they zero-in on stopping the run without the threat of being shredded through the air. If there are any suitors in your season-long leagues that are entranced with Montgomery's volume, now is the time to part ways with the former Iowa State Cyclone.

Diontae Johnson (Week 3 & 5 Excluded)

XFP/G: 21.1 (1st)
PPR/G: 21.3 (3rd)

Targets/G: 13.0 (1st)
Red Zone Targets/G: 1.7 (2nd)
End Zone Targets/G: 2.0 (1st)

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 27, 2020

Commentary and Action Items:

• The inclusion of this tweet serves as a reminder of one thing I have harped on all season: Diontae Johnson is really, really, really good and is an elite fantasy wide receiver when he is healthy. Thankfully, Scott did the dirty work of parsing out the games when Johnson has been injured and unable to contribute to Pittsburgh's offense. When he is healthy and available, Johnson is a top-tier fantasy wide receiver, and the emergence of Chase Claypool in Johnson's absence appears to have had no impact on his standing atop the pecking order for the Steelers' passing attack.

INJURY IMPACT

Philadelphia is Getting Healthier

Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert have returned to practice now, and their prospects for playing in the near future are bright. How will this impact Philadelphia's passing attack and the producers that have emerged in recent weeks?

Commentary and Action Items

• Fear not, Travis Fulgham Stans; he is here to stay in this Philadelphia passing game. All signs point towards Fulgham being a true diamond in the rough for the Eagles, and his recent production has solidified his role in the offense. Although his volume may drop once Reagor and Goedert return to action, he should remain a viable starting option at wide receiver and flex spots in season-long leagues.
• John Hightower's role as the team's top deep threat is in jeopardy once Reagor heals from his early-season thumb injury. DeSean Jackson suffered an unfortunate leg injury that will presumably end his season last Thursday night, which will keep Hightower on the active roster, but once the Eagles number-one draft pick from the 2020 NFL Draft is back on the field, he will take snaps from Hightower directly.
• Expect Jalen Reagor to immediately step on the field and provide value as a number-three wide receiver or flex option for all season-long formats. The Eagles' high-volume passing attack is desperate for an infusion of talented pass-catchers, and Reagor should provide just that.
• Dallas Goedert, much like Reagor, should be an immediate impact-player in Philadelphia's offense. Richard Rodgers saw some success filling in as the team's number-one tight end after Zach Ertz suffered a hamstring injury, and now Goedert should fully capitalize on the opportunity to step up and be the team's tight end of the future.
  • One cause for concern with Goedert is the way that defenses zeroed-in on locking down Ertz when he was the team's obvious number-one pass-catcher. However, Goedert, who will be stepping into that exact role upon his return, is an elite yards-after-catch player. The way that Doug Pederson and the Eagles' coaching staff schemes him into the passing game should insulate him from the downsides that hampered Ertz's production.
• Carson Wentz, who currently ranks 7th in the league in fantasy points scored at the quarterback position, is poised to erupt once his receiving corps finally rounds into shape. As I mentioned last week, Wentz's rushing production has made him an unexpectedly-elite fantasy quarterback in 2020 despite his struggles throwing the football. Much of those early-s]eason struggles can be attributed to a lack of chemistry with the healthy pass-catchers that Wentz had at his disposal. Now, with his most-talented weapons returning to the fold, he should be a bonafide QB1 for the rest of the 2020 season.

Running Backs are Going Down in Bunches

• 3 of San Francisco's top 4 running backs are currently on the injury report, leaving Jerrick McKinnon and JaMychal Hasty as the only viable options in the backfield for Kyle Shanahan.
• Chris Carson suffered a lisfranc injury on Sunday night against the Arizona Cardinals, and his status for the coming weeks is in doubt.
• Kenyan Drake suffered an ankle injury on Sunday night, and he is expected to miss a few weeks of action. Arizona's Week 8 bye will mitigate the fantasy impact of this injury, but he will likely miss a few games.

Commentary and Action Items

• JaMychal Hasty is likely to see the most action in the 49ers backfield in the near future with Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, and Tevin Coleman sidelined with various injuries. Jerrick McKinnon is his main competition for carries in Kyle Shanahan's elite rushing attack. Hasty out-snapped McKinnon last week against the New England Patriots, and McKinnon's playing time, came largely in garbage time. Hasty proved to be a capable ball-carrier in the game, running for 57 yards on his 9 carries, while McKinnon ran for -1 yard on 3 carries. McKinnon, while an elite athlete, is an unimpressive talent as a ball-carrier at the highest level. Suppose Coleman misses the team's Week 8 game, as expected. In that case, Hasty should shoulder the bulk of the work in San Francisco's backfield, making him a valuable fantasy asset against the Seattle Seahawks.
• Carlos Hyde will likely see the majority of the playing time in Seattle's backfield without Chris Carson in the fold. Hyde is an uninspiring talent at this stage in his career, but the volume he should absorb as the team's new number-one running back is tantalizing. Hyde is a viable flex option in season-long formats, and in the mid-5ks on DraftKings, he's a viable DFS selection as well.
• After Kenyan Drake went down with an injury on Sunday Night Football, Chase Edmonds immediately assumed his role in the offense as a bell-cow running back. Edmonds is a very talented running back, and his fantasy value to this point in the season has only been limited by opportunity or lack thereof. Arizona's Week 8 bye may suppress Edmonds' trade value, as he will not immediately capitalize on his new role in the Cardinals' up-tempo offensive attack. If he is not already on your roster, consider looking into what it will cost to acquire Edmonds, as he is shaping up to be a potential league-winning addition if he either seizes control of the team's backfield or if Drake's injury lingers down the stretch.

PACE OF PLAY

Fast high-opportunity offenses

• Dallas' offense is operating at by far the fastest pace in the league in 2020.
• Unsurprisingly, Arizona's air raid offense checks in as the 2nd-fastest offense in the league.
• In an unexpected twist, the Tennessee Titans' offense has been the 3rd-fastest in the NFL through 7 weeks.

Slow low-opportunity offenses

• San Francisco's run-heavy offense ranks as the slowest attack in the NFL this year.
• New Orleans is running an exceptionally slow offense, even when playing from behind, this season. The Saints check-in as the 3rd-slowest offense in the league.
• The New York Giants, Chicago Bears, and Minnesota Vikings all run outdated, inefficient offenses and subsequently rank amongst the league's slowest attacks.

Commentary and Action Items

• Dallas' up-tempo offense should remain one of the fastest in the league, as their lack of healthy talent should leave the Cowboys consistently playing from behind. Playing from behind, the Cowboys will need to score points in bunches, which should lead to Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore calling for an up-tempo offense. Despite the team's lack of offensive efficiency, the volume of this attack should provide an acceptable floor of production for the team's most talented offensive weapons.
• The Tennessee Titans' surprisingly up-tempo offense is leading to numerous high-end fantasy producers across a handful of positions. As mentioned last week, Ryan Tannehill has flown under the radar as one of the league's best fantasy quarterbacks. There is no reason to expect that to change now, especially with A.J. Brown, one of the league's best young wide receivers, recently returning to the field. Across the board, Tennessee's top producers at every position are viable starters for season-long leagues in all formats.
• Aside from the headlining producers-- like Alvin Kamara, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and now Brandon Aiyuk-- from San Francisco and New Orleans, do not expect either offense to foster an environment for ancillary producers to consistently grade as viable starters in season-long formats.
• The archaic offensive approaches of the New York Giants, Chicago Bears, and Minnesota Vikings will limit the fantasy viability of the ancillary offensive weapons for each of these underperforming teams. Although each team has one or two stable producers, the slow offenses, despite constantly playing in negative game scripts, will put a hard cap on each teams' secondary options' fantasy production. Do not expect currently underperforming players from this trio of teams to emerge as a league-winning fantasy asset down the stretch this season, barring injuries or trades changing the landscape of a team's respective depth chart.

PLAYCALLING TENDENCIES

2nd & long passing rate

The following teams ranked amongst the most pass-heavy or run-heavy teams in neutral game script passing rate on 2nd downs with 7 or more yards to gain for a first down.

MOST PASS-HEAVY

• Carolina Panthers 83%
• San Francisco 49ers 82%
• Seattle Seahawks 80%
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers 79%
• Arizona Cardinals 79%

MOST RUN-HEAVY

• Minnesota Vikings 41%
• Denver Broncos 60%
• New York Jets 64%
• Chicago Bears 65%

Passing rate over expectation

Expected pass rate and actual pass rate (through week 7) pic.twitter.com/1Fwd2Oclcm

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 27, 2020

Ben Baldwin's tweet and chart compare the expected passing rate of every team in the NFL, based on an extensive model that has evaluated team play-calling tendencies over a large sample of games, to the team's actual passing rate. A positive number means the offense is notably pass-heavy, while a negative number means the offense is notably run-heavy.

Commentary

• It is unsurprising that the most pass-heavy offenses on 2nd & long are some of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. Passing on 2nd & long is a brilliant decision when it comes to winning football games. For fantasy purposes, it can help us to focus on offenses that give their pass-catchers the most opportunity to score fantasy points and stuff the stat sheet.
• The Seattle Seahawks, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Arizona Cardinals all rank amongst the league's most pass-heavy offenses by both metrics listed above.
• The Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, and New York Jets all rank amongst the league's most run-heavy offenses according to both of the presented measurements.

Action Items

• While Minnesota's top two receivers have turned in highly impressive totals through the first seven weeks of the season, Minnesota's run-heavy offense and unsustainable touchdown rate through the air should lead to regression for both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. Both are likely overvalued on the trade market in season-long formats; do not get suckered into paying the steep asking price both players command right now.
• The Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers' high-volume passing attacks are capable of supporting multiple top-end pass-catchers throughout the rest of the fantasy season. We will dive into one potential regression candidate on Carolina's offense a bit later. Elsewhere, there is no reason to believe that D.K. Metcalf or Tyler Lockett will fall off in Seattle's elite aerial attack. In Tampa Bay, the looming addition of Antonio Brown could throw a wrench into things, but Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski will remain startable options in the coming weeks, thanks to Bruce Arians' pass-heavy play-calling style.

POSITIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES

Both Robby Anderson and Marquise Brown have posted respectable fantasy numbers through the first seven weeks of the season. However, is it possible that both players could get even better in the coming weeks? Their underlying numbers suggest they will.

Marquise Brown

26% target share, 45% market share of air yards, 0.71 WOPR, 1 touchdown

Robby Anderson

26% target share, 39% market share of air yards, 0.67 WOPR, 1 touchdown

Commentary and Action Items

• WOPR, a metric that incorporates both target share and market share of air yards into one number, is typically the best predictor of a receiver's likelihood of finding the end zone. Brown's WOPR rating is the 5th-highest mark in the league, while Anderson's is 9th-highest.
• Each player has only found paydirt one time this season, while their peers within their respective offenses have overachieved. For Baltimore, Mark Andrews, the team's number-two pass-catcher, has found the endzone five times this season. In Carolina, D.J. Moore, the team's second-highest-volume receiver, has found the endzone 3 times, while Mike Davis has 2 receiving scores of his own entering Week 8.
• Brown has only accounted for 10% of his team's receiving touchdowns this season, a stunningly-low number for a player with that high of a WOPR.
• Anderson has only accounted for 12.5% of his team's receiving touchdowns this season, another remarkably low number for a top-10 receiver in the league in terms of WOPR.
• Marquise "Hollywood" Brown's expectations entering this season far outpaced those of Robby Anderson. Comparatively, Brown appears to be a massive underachiever throughout the first seven weeks of the season. However, this may be the perfect buy-low opportunity to acquire one of the league's best young wide receivers. Hollywood's dominance over Baltimore's other receivers in market share of air yards and targets leads me to believe that he is one of the league's premier candidates for a second-half breakout.
• Robby Anderson's 2020 campaign has stunned almost everyone within the fantasy community. I would bet the house that not a single analyst out there predicted he would break Panthers franchise receiving records throughout his first month as a member of the team. Somehow, his impressive fantasy totals have been in spite of horrific "touchdown luck." Expect Anderson to find the endzone soon, and often, making him one of the league's best fantasy wide receivers this year in Carolina's high-volume passing attack.

QUARTERBACK TENDENCIES

DINK-AND-DUNK PASSERS

• Drew Brees: 6.0 air yards/attempt (fewest)
• Jimmy Garoppolo: 6.2 air yards/attempt (2nd-fewest)
• Kyle Allen: 6.2 air yards/attempt (3rd-fewest)
• Andy Dalton: 6.5 air yards/attempt (4th-fewest)

RISK-TAKING PASSERS

• Drew Lock: 10.5 air yards/attempt (most)
• Kirk Cousins: 9.9 air yards/attempt (2nd-most)
• Matthew Stafford: 9.4 air yards/attempt (3rd-most)
• Lamar Jackson: 9.4 air yards/attempt (4th-most)
• Carson Wentz: 9.2 air yards/attempt (5th-most)

Commentary and Action Items

• The two most conservative passers play in offenses built around quick, short throws that maximize the talents of their playmakers in space. The plurality of Drew Brees' pass attempts (without Michael Thomas on the field) goes to Alvin Kamara, who excels after the catch. Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers offense heavily utilize jet-sweep touch-passes to players like Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, two young and developing route runners who also excel with the ball in their hands. At this point in their respective careers, these jet-sweep plays are the most efficient way for Kyle Shanahan to scheme the ball into their hands, which also helps to mask some of Jimmy Garoppolo's shortcomings as a passer. Take note of the receivers who typically thrive on short passes in both offenses, and target them in season-long formats and DFS contests down the stretch this season.
• In Washington and Dallas, a pair of replacement quarterbacks round out the list of the four most-conservative passers in the league. This trend holds true across the league, and the best way to capitalize on this is by targeting running backs with significant passing-down roles and wide receivers with low average depth of target (aDOT) totals. Replacement quarterbacks across the league tend to favor short, quick, and safe passes over holding the ball for a long time in the pocket and airing it out. Typically, the low-risk level of these short passes is enticing to replacement quarterbacks, who are often playing in watered-down versions of their team's respective offenses. Whenever a team is forced to replace its starting quarterback, look to start the team's highest-volume, lowest-aDOT pass-catchers.
• Conversely, Drew Lock, the young risk-taking quarterback for the Denver Broncos, leads the league in air yards/attempt. Lock's penchant for airing it out, especially when he's targeting Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick, makes him one of the league's most volatile quarterbacks in fantasy football. Although his passing numbers this season are uninspiring, the context of the pass defenses he has faced makes his passing totals far more respectable. In his two games since returning from injury, Lock was dealt a matchup with the New England Patriots' stout defense and a snow game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Lock has a slew of soft matchups lined up over the course of the next month, making him a strong candidate for season-long teams that are streaming quarterbacks. Additionally, pairing Lock with Jeudy and/or Patrick in GPPs over the next month is a great buy-low leverage opportunity.
• Kirk Cousins' inflated air yards/attempt number is a product of a low-volume passing attack that has been playing from behind and chasing points for the majority of their season. Cousins frequently targets rookie Justin Jefferson on these types of plays, but as mentioned in the previous section, Jefferson and Thielen have posted wildly unsustainable numbers through the first seven weeks of the season, making this the perfect sell-high opportunity for the Vikings' passing attack.
• Carson Wentz appearing within the top-five quarterbacks in air yards/attempt is surprising, especially considering the lack of a talented deep threat on the team's active roster in recent weeks. Jalen Reagor's return to the field should bolster Wentz's efficiency numbers on these deep throws, making for another reason why both Reagor and Wentz are poised to thrive down the stretch this season as startable fantasy assets in season-long leagues of all formats.

A DEEP DIVE INTO THE TRENCHES

BEST & WORST OFFENSIVE LINES

The following rankings are the best and worst offensive lines in the leagues, accompanied by the percent of team dropbacks their quarterback has been under pressure this season.

The Best

1. New Orleans Saints: 12.8%
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 13.2%
3. Green Bay Packers: 14.9%
4. Los Angeles Rams: 15.1%
5. Arizona Cardinals: 15.7%

The Worst

1. New York Giants: 29.2%
2. New York Jets: 28.9%
3. Minnesota Vikings: 28.2%
4. Seattle Seahawks: 27.7%
5. Los Angeles Chargers: 27.1%

Commentary and Action Items

• Unsurprisingly, the top five offensive lines all support top-tier passing attacks. Use this metric as validation that each of these five passing attacks should remain close to the top of the league's rankings in passing efficiency this season. Pressure% is a leading indicator of passing-game success. If any of these teams drop down in these rankings in the coming weeks, I will keep be sure to include that in this article to help inform decision-making regarding quarterbacks and pass-catchers from each offense.
• Conversely, the three worst teams in pressure% allowed all grade amongst the league's worst passing attacks. However, the Seahawks and the Chargers buck that trend with impressive aerial attacks despite their pressure% allowed. Russell Wilson, a magician in the pocket, has largely been immune from these struggles throughout his career. In fact, there is a credible theory that his penchant for holding the ball too long and extending plays may artificially inflate this number, making his offensive line look worse than it actually is. On the other hand, although Justin Herbert has shown flashes of brilliance thus far in his young career, he cannot be expected to continue this brilliance while opposing pass rushers bully his offensive line. Be wary of potential regression in the Los Angeles Chargers' passing attack that may hamstring the production of Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Hunter Henry. (NOTE: Henry has previously been mentioned as a buy-low candidate in season-long formats. If he struggles once again this weekend, it may be time to accept this situation as a swing and a miss in his current role.)

BEST & WORST DEFENSIVE LINES

The following rankings are the best and worst defensive lines in the leagues, accompanied by the percent of team dropbacks the opposing quarterback has been under pressure this season.

The Best

1. Pittsburgh Steelers: 37.1%
2. Baltimore Ravens: 29.2%
3. Kansas City Chiefs: 28.4%
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 27.4%
5. San Francisco 49ers: 27.0%

The Worst

1. Carolina Panthers: 17.0%
2. Cincinnati Bengals: 17.3%
3. Green Bay Packers: 17.4%
4. New York Jets: 18.4%
5. Houston Texans: 18.7%

Commentary and Action Items

• Again, unsurprisingly, the best defensive lines in the league pair with the best pass defenses in the league. Applying pressure to opposing quarterbacks, regardless of who the quarterback is, is the number-one way to minimize his passing efficiency. Down the stretch this season, attempt to avoid starting quarterbacks and pass-catchers against the Steelers, Ravens, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and 49ers, as their dominance in the trenches leads to horrific passing performances by opposing offenses.
• On the other hand, the league's worst defensive lines pair with the league's worst pass defenses. Much like offensive line performance, pressure% of a defensive line is a leading indicator that helps provide signal for what is to come down the line for a defense. Target quarterbacks and pass-catchers against the Panthers, Bengals, Packers, Jets, and Texans in the coming weeks, as their struggles along the defensive front, should afford opposing passers plenty of time to surveil the field and pick apart defenses.

As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @StillZam with any questions, comments, or concerns about this article or anything that has to do with fantasy football this weekend.