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Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

• All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2020 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Numbers Sometimes Lie
• Looks Can Be Deceiving
• One Potential Trend to Keep an Eye on This Weekend

NUMBERS SOMETIMES LIE

In this section, we will peel back the layers of the best fantasy performers across the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions, unveiling whose early-season production is here to stay and whose is inflated by frequent, and potentially unsustainable, trips to the end zone.

Running Back

The chart above features the top-10 healthy running backs in the NFL in fantasy-points-per-game.

• Scoring Opps/Gm is calculated using carries per game + targets per game
• TD FP% is what percent of a player's total fantasy production has been scored through touchdowns

Commentary

• Alvin Kamara is the number-one non-quarterback scorer in all of fantasy football through five games.
• Aaron Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, and Raheem Mostert round out the top-five running backs in fantasy-points-per-game thus far in 2020.
• Mike Davis has been stellar while filling in for the injured Christian McCaffrey, scoring 19.32 fantasy-points-per-game on the season (and over 22 fantasy-points-per-game during his time as a starter.)

Action Items

• Raheem Mostert, the number five running back in the NFL in fantasy-points-per-game, stands out as one of the most likely beneficiaries of an increased touchdown rate. Mostert has played in just three games this season, but he has been extremely impressive in all three. Should Mostert claim a larger share of the team's total carries, as he is expected to, his upside is immense. If possible, inquire about acquiring him in season-long formats before he re-emerges as San Francisco's clear-cut number-one running back. Additionally, start him in all season-long formats and consider him a strong fantasy option at $6,300 on DraftKings this weekend in all types of contests when the 49ers take on the Los Angeles Rams, whom we will dig deeper on a bit later.
• Carolina's interim starting running back, Mike Davis, has been one of the league's best fantasy running backs in recent weeks. Dr. Jene Bramel, FootballGuys' lead injury analyst, noted here that he believes McCaffrey may be sidelined for up to six weeks, the top-end of the initial expected time he would miss due to injury, while Davis holds down the fort in Carolina's backfield. With less-than 20-percent of his total fantasy production coming via touchdowns, Davis' production should continue to rank amongst the league's best running backs on a weekly basis while he is the team's starter. Despite a recent price increase up to $7,000, Mike Davis remains an elite cash-game option on DraftKings this week against the Chicago Bears, in large part thanks to his significant role in the team's passing attack.
• Expect Dalvin Cook, Chris Carson, and Aaron Jones to regress in the near future. While Jones and Cook regularly see 20+ scoring opportunities per game, Chris Carson's weekly workload lags far behind, at a shade under 17 scoring opportunities per game. All three players have benefited from remarkably-high touchdown rates this season, with over one-third of their total fantasy production coming on touchdowns. Although all three are likely top-end running back producers in the long-term, it would not be a surprise to see each player drift closer to 10th in these rankings than where they currently stand. Despite their early-season successes, resist the urge to move heaven and earth to acquire any of Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, or Chris Carson in season-long fantasy football this year, as their current production levels appear to be unsustainable.

Wide Receiver

The chart above features the top-10 wide receivers in the NFL in fantasy-points-per-game.

• Scoring Opps/Gm is calculated using carries per game + targets per game (mostly targets in this case)
• TD FP% is what percent of a player's total fantasy production has been scored through touchdowns

Commentary

• Davante Adams leads all wide receivers in fantasy points per game through 5 weeks this season, in large part thanks to a 40-point eruption early in the year before his hamstring injury.
• Surprisingly, Jamison Crowder, the New York Jets' primary slot receiver, ranks second in the NFL in fantasy points per game at wide receiver, less-than one-point ahead of DeAndre Hopkins, who has only scored 10.6-percent of his fantasy points through touchdowns.
• Stefon Diggs, Robby Anderson, and Amari Cooper all also rank top-10 in fantasy-points-per-game amongst wide receivers, despite less-than 12-percent of their total fantasy production coming via touchdowns.

Action Items

• Despite scoring 22.56 fantasy points per game, the 3rd-most amongst wide receivers through the first 5 games of the season, DeAndre Hopkins appears ready to take his production to another level over the coming weeks. With approximately 1/10th of his fantasy production coming through touchdowns, Hopkins is one of the least-touchdown-dependent pass-catchers in the NFL. In Arizona's high-paced offense, he should see plenty of scoring opportunities throughout the remainder of the season. Early in his tenure as a member of the Arizona Cardinals, defenses obviously focused the majority of their defensive resources on keeping Hopkins out of the endzone, but the production of Arizona's ancillary pieces should lead defenses away from focusing solely on limiting D-Hop. DeAndre Hopkins should be a staple of startling lineups all year in season-long formats, and this weekend, he is an elite DFS selection on any slate that includes Monday night's games, where Hopkins costs $8,200 against Dallas' pedestrian secondary.
• Stefon Diggs and Robby Anderson both changed teams this offseason, moving away from uninspiring low-volume offenses to significantly more-efficient and higher-volume passing attacks. Following the change in scenery, both Diggs and Anderson have emerged as elite fantasy options this season, scoring 20.38 and 19.04 points-per-game, respectively. Given each player's remarkably-small reliance upon scoring touchdowns, Diggs and Anderson could be poised for late-season eruptions. Ensure Diggs and Anderson are firmly planted in starting lineups in all season-long leagues. This weekend, consider utilizing Stefon Diggs at $6,600 on DraftKings in any slate that includes the Monday night games, especially if John Brown is unable to play in the Bills' expectedly-high-scoring battle with the Kansas City Chiefs. On Sunday's main slate of games, following a modest $400 price increase on DraftKings, Robby Anderson is an elite cash-game selection against the Chicago Bears.

Tight End

The chart above features the top-10 tight ends in the NFL in fantasy-points-per-game.

• Scoring Opps/Gm is calculated using carries per game + targets per game (primarily targets in this case)
• TD FP% is what percent of a player's total fantasy production has been scored through touchdowns

Commentary

• Unsurprisingly, George Kittle and Travis Kelce sit atop the fantasy-points-per-game rankings at the tight end position. The underlying metrics signal that they are there to stay, which is not the case most of the top-10 below them.
• Jonnu Smith, Robert Tonyan Jr, Mark Andrews, and Jimmy Graham all appear poised for significant regression, despite landing in the top-10 in the NFL in fantasy-points-per-game at tight end.

Action Items

• The remarkably-low rate of touchdown dependence for George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Darren Waller makes it extremely likely that the top three fantasy tight ends of yesteryear find themselves in that same position once again this season. There is little to be done with this trio this weekend, as Waller is on a bye while Kittle and Kelce aren't on the main slate of DFS contests. In season-long fantasy football, hold onto all three players at all costs, as the gap between these three players and the fourth-best fantasy tight end is massive.
• Hunter Henry, the 10th-best tight end in terms of fantasy-points-per-game through 5 games, is primed to rise up these ranks as the season wears on, especially if either Keenan Allen or Mike Williams miss time with injuries they sustained on Monday Night Football in Week 5. Henry averages 7.0 targets-per-game thus far this season, and he should experience some positive regression in the coming weeks if his mark of just 10.4-percent of total fantasy points coming via touchdowns increases to a league-average rate for the position. In leagues where you do not have one of the top-three tight ends on your roster, look into Hunter Henry as a buy-low tight end option with the potential to finish within the top-five at the position.

LOOKS CAN BE DECEIVING

Viewing raw "defense vs. position" (DvP) stats can be misleading, as it makes no consideration for the strength of opponents. So, in this section, we're going to compare our Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS) over the last five weeks vs. raw DvP for the entire season and find notable deltas between the two. The idea is to find defenses to target that other DFS players might not.

Expect this feature to be a staple of #Trendspotting throughout the 2020 season, as the ability to uncover what defensive traits are actionable and what ones are noise is critical to success in all forms of fantasy football. By comparing NSoS rankings to DvP rankings each week throughout the season, we will have a brief weekly review of what teams are playing closer to their true talent levels and what teams are benefiting from a temporarily soft schedule.

Quarterback

The table above displays the five teams whose NSoS ranking against quarterbacks deviates most from their DVP ranking against quarterbacks, both positively and negatively. A positive number in the Delta column means that NSoS reveals that the defense is likely worse than standard DvP implies against the position. A negative number in the Delta column means that NSoS reveals that the defense is likely better than standard DvP implies against the position.

• "NSoS" = Normalized Strength of Schedule Ranking
  • (see the link in the paragraph atop the Looks Can be Deceiving section for an explanation on NSoS)
• "DvP" = Defense vs. Position Ranking
  • (raw fantasy points allowed to that position)
• "Delta" = NSoS-DvP

Commentary

• The New York Giants top the charts here in Week 5 with a DvP ranking 24 spots worse than their NSoS ranking. This number is likely slightly skewed by last week's game against the Dallas Cowboys, where Dak Prescott suffered a gruesome ankle injury that will sideline him for the remainder of the season.
• On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Arizona Cardinals' DvP ranking is 20 spots better than their NSoS ranking, the largest Delta in the NFL for any overperforming defense against the quarterback position.
• The Oakland Raiders and New York Jets both appear primed for regression in the coming weeks, as the teams with the fourth and fifth-highest deltas against quarterbacks in the league, respectively.

Action Items

• Although the combination of a bottom-dollar price tag and a presumably soft matchup against the New York Giants may lead you to believe that Washington's starting quarterback, Kyle Allen, is an intriguing option in DFS this weekend, steer clear of the enticing salary-relief Kyle Allen offers at quarterback in Week 6 and he should only be started in extremely deep two-quarterback season-long leagues. The New York Giants' defense has faced a tough schedule of passing attacks early in 2020, and a matchup against an underwhelming Washington passing attack is an elite opportunity for the Giants' secondary to flex its muscles. Conversely, consider rostering the New York Giants defense in DFS this weekend at just $3,200 on DraftKings against one of the league's worst offenses.
• The loss of Dak Prescott will undoubtedly hurt a Dallas Cowboys' passing attack that was on pace to break records with him under center. Now, with Andy Dalton stepping into the starting role, it remains to be seen whether or not the Cowboys continue with their up-tempo, high-volume aerial attack that had regularly lit up scoreboards for the first five weeks of the season. Fortunately, Dalton was likely one of the league's better backup quarterback options when he was holding a clipboard, and he should be able to maintain a respectable level of passing production for the Cowboys, especially this weekend against the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona's defense has massively overperformed against quarterbacks thus far this season, and a clash with Dallas' elite receiving corps could spell trouble for their secondary. Expect Dalton to be one of the 10-to-15 highest-scoring quarterbacks overall this weekend, making him a startable season-long option and a viable DFS selection on slates that include the Monday night games in Week 6.

Running Back

The table above displays the four teams whose NSoS ranking against quarterbacks deviates most from their DVP ranking against running backs, both positively and negatively. A positive number in the Delta column means that NSoS reveals that the defense is likely worse than standard DvP implies against the position. A negative number in the Delta column means that NSoS reveals that the defense is likely better than standard DvP implies against the position.

• "NSoS" = Normalized Strength of Schedule Ranking
  • (see the link in the paragraph atop the Looks Can be Deceiving section for an explanation on NSoS)
• "DvP" = Defense vs. Position Ranking
  • (raw fantasy points allowed to that position)
• "Delta" = NSoS-DvP

Commentary

• The New England Patriots' run defense is truly one of the league's best units, despite ranking 19th in DvP against running backs through 5 games. Expect them to emerge as one of the stingiest front-sevens against the run in the coming weeks against a softer schedule.
• Despite posting what appear to be of the best run-stopping numbers in the league at first glance, the Pittsburgh Steelers' run defense is not nearly as good as their number-four ranking in DvP against running backs would suggest.
• When accounting for the strength of the opposing rushing attacks the Los Angeles Rams have faced through five games, they grade as one of the league's weakest run-stopping defenses. The Rams' defense ranks 26th in the league against running backs, according to NSoS, far lower than their 15th-best mark in DvP against running backs.

Action Items

• Melvin Gordon's status for this week's matchup with the New England Patriots is in jeopardy after he was arrested for a DUI on Wednesday morning. His absence would push Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay into prominent roles in Denver's offense, but neither player is a strong fantasy option this weekend. New England's top-end run defense should have no trouble containing Denver's rushing attack, especially since the Patriots are 10-point favorites, which should lead to the Broncos relying heavily upon their passing attack. Avoid starting Melvin Gordon, Phillip Lindsay, or Royce Freeman in any season-long format this weekend, if possible, against the New England Patriots. Additionally, the speculative viability of Lindsay and Freeman is entirely dependent upon Gordon's availability; if Gordon is out or suspended for Week 6, do not be surprised if Denver's backup running backs are popular waiver-wire additions. Sit comfortably on the sidelines while your competitors battle to pick up either player.
• With Nick Chubb sidelined for the short-term future, Kareem Hunt will handle see the majority of the playing time and volume in Cleveland's run-heavy offense. Last weekend, in Hunt's first start for the team, Hunt played 70-percent of Cleveland's offensive snaps, carried the ball 20 times, and saw 4 targets against the Indianapolis Colts. This weekend, a presumably tough matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers may scare some players away from Hunt in DFS, but this matchup is much softer than standard DvP would suggest. The Steelers' run defense has benefited from an exceptionally soft early-season schedule through four games, but that ends this weekend against the Browns' second-ranked rushing attack. At $6,900 on DraftKings, Hunt is an elite GPP option against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6. While the field may avoid him due to the matchup, Pittsburgh's NSoS rating leads us to believe that this run defense's true talent lags far behind the top-five DvP ranking they have registered through four games.
• Much like the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Los Angeles Rams' run defense has benefited from a soft schedule early in 2020 that has featured four contests against the dismal NFC East. The primary difference between Los Angeles and Pittsburgh is that the Steelers turned their soft schedule into a top-5 DvP ranking, while the Rams still rank 15th in the league in DvP despite their forgiving schedule. This weekend, against Raheem Mostert and the 49ers' rushing attack, the Rams' run defense will be pushed to its limits. As mentioned earlier, Mostert is one of the league's best producers at the running back position, and his deficiency finding paydirt should not continue much longer. Raheem Mostert is one of the best fantasy options in the league at running back this weekend, thanks to his combination of sustainable production (with room for improvement) and a soft matchup against an overachieving run defense. Although this matchup is not featured on the DraftKings main slate of games, Mostert should be a mainstay of lineups on all other slates that feature this NFC West clash between the last two Super Bowl runners-up.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WEEKEND

In Week 6, keep an eye on Tyler Johnson's usage and role in Tampa Bay's passing attack. This weekend, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play host to the Green Bay Packers in what is expected to be the highest-scoring game on the DraftKings main slate of games, as of Wednesday afternoon. Last week, on Thursday Night Football, Johnson played 78.9-percent of Tampa Bay's offensive snaps and ran routes on 82-percent of the team's pass plays. Johnson's role in the Bucs' offense grew remarkably from Week 4 to Week 5, given the absence of Chris Godwin. In Week 6, not only is Godwin's status in doubt, but Mike Evans is also on Tampa Bay's injury report due to an ankle injury that clearly hampered him last week. If both Godwin and Evans miss Week 6, Johnson should be one of the most-popular wide receivers on DraftKings, thanks to his modest $3,400 price tag. However, if either Godwin or Evans make it into Tampa Bay's starting lineup, Johnson could fly under the radar as one of the league's best buy-low options for the week, depending on how his role in this offense develops over time.

Potential developing trend to keep an eye on: Is Tyler Johnson emerging as the number-three wide receiver in Tampa Bay's passing attack when the unit is fully healthy, with significant upside whenever either Godwin or Evans are sidelined?

Hypothesis: Tyler Johnson fell to the fifth round of the NFL Draft following an incredible collegiate career at Minnesota due to concerns regarding his athleticism and how well he would hold up against NFL-caliber defensive backs. In recent weeks, with increased playing time, Johnson appears to be fully capable of competing in the NFL and potentially breaking through as a starting-level pass-catcher down the line. I suspect that Johnson's role in Tampa Bay's offense will continue to grow throughout the season, which could make him a viable bargain-bin option for DFS lineups and a player worth stashing on the bench in season-long formats.

What if this isn't the case?: If Johnson remains buried on the depth chart behind Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scott Miller, and Justin Watson when the group is fully healthy, not much will change for Johnson; he will remain an afterthought in DFS contests and in the pool of available free-agents in season-long fantasy football.

Risk-tolerant way to potentially capitalize on this developing trend a week or two early: If Tyler Johnson remains a contrarian salary-saving option at wide receiver, he makes for an elite GPP option this weekend at just $3,400 if one of Chris Godwin or Mike Evans miss the game due to injury. Following a season-ending injury to tight end O.J. Howard, there are a few extra targets to be spread around this offense, and if Johnson is capable of holding his own against NFL defensive backs, his ceiling far exceeds what his price implies. If both Godwin and Evans are out this weekend, Johnson should rightfully end up as a popular option to build lineups around in both cash-games and GPPs. Additionally, Johnson would be a viable WR3 or Flex option in season-long formats in this case.

As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @StillZam with any questions, comments, or concerns about this article or anything that has to do with fantasy football this weekend.