#Trendspotting: Week 5

Photo: Imagn Images

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

• All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2020 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Looks Can Be Deceiving
• Funnel Watch
• One Thing to Keep an Eye on his Weekend

Looks can be deceiving

Viewing raw "defense vs. position" (DvP) stats can be misleading, as it makes no consideration for the strength of opponents. So, in this section, we're going to compare our Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS) over the last five weeks vs. raw DvP for the entire season and find notable deltas between the two. The idea is to find defenses to target that other DFS players might not.

NOTE: Data for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans has been removed from all charts in this section. Given the postponement of the Week 4 matchup between Pittsburgh and Tennessee, we only have 3 games of data to work with for each of these teams, and we do not include teams in the following tables until we have 4 weeks of data on them.

Quarterbacks

The table above displays the five teams whose NSoS ranking against quarterbacks deviates most from their DVP ranking against quarterbacks, both positively and negatively. A positive number in the Delta column means that NSoS reveals that the defense is likely worse than standard DvP implies against the position. A negative number in the Delta column means that NSoS reveals that the defense is likely better than standard DvP implies against the position.

• "NSoS" = Normalized Strength of Schedule Ranking
  
  • (see the link in the paragraph atop the Looks Can be Deceiving section for an explanation on NSoS)
• "DvP" = Defense vs. Position Ranking
  
  • (raw fantasy points allowed to that position)
• "Delta" = NSoS-DvP

Commentary

As the season wears on, this data will become increasingly useful, and this section will likely become a mainstay of #Trendspotting moving forward. Early in the season, the differences between NSoS and DvP will point us towards situations that warrant deeper analysis of a team's schedule to provide some much-needed context.

• The Miami Dolphins have the biggest disparity in the league between their NSoS and DvP against quarterbacks, ranking 19 places better in NSoS than they do in DvP.
• New England checks in with the second-largest difference between NSoS and DvP against quarterbacks. The Patriots rank in the top-five in the league in NSoS but hover around league-average in DvP.
• The Arizona Cardinals have the third-largest difference between NSoS and DvP against quarterbacks in the league, which is also the largest negative difference.

Action Items

• The Arizona Cardinals' early-season schedule is in contention for the softest in the league regarding the quality of fantasy producers faced at the quarterback position. The Cardinals have faced Jimmy Garoppolo, Dwayne Haskins, Matthew Stafford, and Teddy Bridgewater through four games this season. None of these players are impressive fantasy producers in their current offenses, and it is worrying that the Cardinals rank 17th in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Given their 29th-place ranking in NSoS, the Cardinals appear to be a time that is primed to struggle against more talented quarterbacks down the line. This weekend, the Cardinals take on the New York Jets, who will be led by Joe Flacco under-center thanks to Sam Darnold's shoulder injury. Very little is expected of Flacco this weekend, especially in the uninspiring offense built by Adam Gase. However, at the bottom-dollar price of just $4,800 on DraftKings, consider rostering Joe Flacco in a small portion of GPP lineups on DraftKings this weekend against a porous Arizona secondary whose early season results have been bolstered by soft matchups.
• On the opposite end of the spectrum, the New England Patriots' results against quarterbacks through one month of play have been brutally impacted by their schedule. New England's first four games have come against the Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, Las Vegas Raiders, and Kansas City Chiefs. Going up against Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes II is a tall task for any defense in 2020, and there is no shame in struggling against either-- although they did hold Patrick Mahomes II to just 20.24 DraftKings points, which is undeniably impressive. Across their other two matchups with the Dolphins and the Raiders, the Patriots did a tremendous job of limiting quarterback production overall. Ryan Fitzpatrick was unable to find the endzone against New England in the season-opener, and Derek Carr had just one passing touchdown before a garbage-time score with 2 minutes left that cut the lead from 23 to 17. Avoid starting quarterbacks against the Patriots at all costs for the time being. Remove these quarterbacks from your DFS player pools and move them to your bench in season-long leagues outside of extremely deep two-quarterback formats. While Joe Flacco was referenced earlier as an intriguing value quarterback for GPPs on DraftKings, the same cannot be said for Brett Rypien this weekend despite checking in at just $5,100. Do not consider him in DFS whatsoever.

Running Backs

The table above displays the five teams whose NSoS ranking against running backs deviates most from their DVP ranking against running backs, both positively and negatively. A positive number in the Delta column means that NSoS reveals that the defense is likely worse than standard DvP implies against the position. A negative number in the Delta column means that NSoS reveals that the defense is likely better than standard DvP implies against the position.

• "NSoS" = Normalized Strength of Schedule Ranking
  
  • (see the link in the paragraph atop the Looks Can be Deceiving section for an explanation on NSoS)
• "DvP" = Defense vs. Position Ranking
  
  • (raw fantasy points allowed to that position)
• "Delta" = NSoS-DvP

Commentary

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' results against running backs have been mediocre throughout the first month of the season. The cause for this, however, is not a lack of talent defensively, but rather a league-leading 12-place differential between their NSoS ranking and DvP ranking heading into Week 5.
• On the other hand, the mediocre results for the Los Angeles Rams through four games tell the opposite story. Here, we have an overperforming defense that has benefited from a quartet of games against underperforming rushing attacks, and their DvP ranking is 11 places higher than their NSoS ranking.

Action Items

• Although David Montgomery was referenced in last week's #Trendspotting article as a high-ceiling option throughout the rest of the season, consider moving him to your bench in season-long formats this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers if your bench features any other viable running back options. While Tampa Bay's surface-level metrics against running backs make Montgomery look like a serviceable starting option in Week 5, their third-best NSoS ranking in the NFL is something we should look to avoid, if possible.
• In a Week 5 matchup with the Rams' overperforming run defense, Antonio Gibson stands out as an under-the-radar option for DFS lineups in all contest formats this weekend. Gibson posted an impressive 22.8-point performance on DraftKings last weekend against the Baltimore Ravens, in part thanks to 4 receptions and 82 receiving yards, but his playmaking ability was on full display throughout the game. Gibson is a talented running back with a high ceiling. A soft matchup against the Los Angeles Rams makes Washington's rookie running back an intriguing option for DraftKings lineups this weekend at just $5,000.

Wide Receivers

The table above displays the five teams whose NSoS ranking against wide receivers deviates most from their DVP ranking against wide receivers, both positively and negatively. A positive number in the Delta column means that NSoS reveals that the defense is likely worse than standard DvP implies against the position. A negative number in the Delta column means that NSoS reveals that the defense is likely better than standard DvP implies against the position.

• "NSoS" = Normalized Strength of Schedule Ranking
  
  • (see the link in the paragraph atop the Looks Can be Deceiving section for an explanation on NSoS)
• "DvP" = Defense vs. Position Ranking
  
  • (raw fantasy points allowed to that position)
• "Delta" = NSoS-DvP

Commentary

• The Atlanta Falcons appear atop the rankings here, with their DvP ranking (19th) checking in 19 spots higher than their NSoS ranking (3rd). I need to caution against acting based on this particular piece of data, as Atlanta lost another starting defensive back to injury last weekend, and their NSoS numbers may be bolstered by an early-season blowout loss to the Seattle Seahawks in which the Seahawks ran the ball far more than they have since to protect a sizeable lead. Additionally, in Week 4, the Falcons faced off with the Green Bay Packers, who were without both of their top-two wide receivers. This led to very limited receiving production for that unit, while the Packers' tight ends and running backs destroyed Atlanta through the air.
• The Cincinnati Bengals' difference between their NSoS ranking (24th) and DvP ranking (17th) is tied with Tampa Bay for the second-largest negative delta in the league against wide receivers.

Action Item

• Consider targeting Cincinnati's secondary this weekend by rostering Marquise Brown in GPPs on DraftKings. Cincinnati's exceptionally soft schedule throughout the first month of the season, which has featured matchups against the Tyrod Taylor-led-Chargers, Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles, and Jacksonville Jaguars, has bolstered their DvP results against wide receivers. The Bengals' first four games have featured games against a pair of exceptionally run-heavy offensive attacks and another pair of anemic passing attacks. Marquise Brown's advanced receiving metrics through his first four games lead us to believe that a breakout performance is imminent. Brown ranks 8th in the NFL in WOPR, a metric that combines market share of team targets and air yards to evaluate a pass catcher's role within his offense. Despite Brown's high-end WOPR, he has produced just 40.2 fantasy points this season, the lowest total of any wide receiver with a top-25 WOPR to play in 4 games this season. Brown should convert this massive opportunity in Baltimore's offense into fantasy production sooner rather than later. What better opportunity than against a bottom-tier pass defense whose struggles have been masked by a forgiving early-season schedule?

FUNNEL WATCH

This week, Funnel Watch makes its 2020 debut in #Trendspotting. Only two funnel spots reveal themselves after parsing each team defense's rushing and passing numbers through four games, but these opportunities for GPP leverage in DFS are substantial. Given the limited data provided in Funnel Watch and the incomplete picture painted by the data, additional analysis that delves into other vital data points for strong fantasy plays revealed by the pass and run funnel data will be included in this section.

• "PaYd/Gm" = passing yards per game allowed by a team's defense
• "RuYd/Gm" = rushing yards per game allowed by a team's defense.
• "NYd/Att" = net yards per passing attempt; factors yards lost via sacks instead of raw yards per attempt.
• "PassYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the pass.
• "Yd/Rush" = yards per carry allowed by a team's defense
• "RushYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the rush.
• The team listed in the first column is the defense allowing the numbers in the following six columns.
• The team listed in the seventh column is the offense poised to capitalize on the funnel-like traits of the opposing defense.

Commentary

• Seattle allows 401.0 passing-yards-per-game, most in the NFL.
• Seattle allows 7.8 net-yards-per-pass-attempt, 5th-most in the NFL.
• 84.1-percent of the total yardage allowed by the Seattle Seahawks comes via the passing game, the highest portion in the NFL.
• Kansas City allows 161.0 rushing-yards-per-game, 5th-most in the NFL.
• Kansas City allows 5.3 yards-per-carry, the 2nd-highest mark in the NFL.
• 45.2-percent of total yardage allowed by the Kansas City Chiefs comes on the ground, the 2nd-highest percentage in the NFL.
• Kansas City allows just 195.0 passing-yards-per-game on 5.5 net-yards-per-pass-attempt, both third-lowest in the NFL.

Action Items and Analysis

• Action Item Number 1: Start Justin Jefferson in season-long formats and consider building DFS lineups around him in all formats on slates that include Sunday Night Football.
  • Action Item Number 1 Analysis: Minnesota's rookie wide receiver, Justin Jefferson, has come on strong over the last two weeks after getting out of the gates slow to start his NFL career. We can potentially attribute Jefferson's slow start to the fact that he was one of the first players to land on the COVID/Reserve List this offseason, missing significant practice time during training camp while he quarantined and recovered from COVID. For a rookie, whose 2020 campaign is already taking place in suboptimal conditions, missing critical practice time in a new system with a new quarterback can significantly impact early performance. In recent weeks, Jefferson's playing time has increased dramatically-- going from playing just 54-percent of Minnesota's offensive snaps in Week 2 to playing 78-percent and 77-percent of Minnesota's offensive snaps in Weeks 3 and 4. Jefferson has eclipsed the century mark through the air in each of his last two games, averaging 5.5 catches for 139 receiving yards on 7 targets-per-game over that span. Jefferson posted similarly impressive efficiency numbers in college last season at LSU, and while he is unlikely to sustain these impressive per-game averages throughout the season, a matchup against Seattle's pass-funnel defense could lead to another massive performance for the rookie. Jefferson is worth starting in season-long formats this weekend, and although he is not on the DraftKings main slate of games, he should be a staple in lineups on slates that include Sunday Night Football.
• Action Item Number 2: Start Josh Jacobs in all season-long formats despite his recent struggles and expectedly-negative game script in Week 5. Also, consider building GPP lineups around Josh Jacobs on DraftKings this weekend at the modest price of $6,300.
  • Action Item Number 2 Analysis: Kansas City's defensive combination of an impressive secondary to go along with a horrific run defense has resulted in a slew of impressive rushing performances on their defense. The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed at least one opposing running back to post a season-high rushing total and/or a season-high in yards-per-carry in all four games this season. In the season opener, David Johnson ran for 77 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. Then, in Week 2, Austin Ekeler ran for 93 yards on 16 carries, followed by a modest 39 yards on 4 carries for Gus Edwards in Week 3, and most recently, Damien Harris ran for 100 yards on 17 carries in his first career game with more than 4 rushing attempts. Kansas City's shortcomings defending the run are obvious, and Josh Jacobs is in line to take advantage of this weakness next. Overall, Jacobs' rushing volume is typically dependent upon the flow of the game. When Las Vegas plays with a lead, Jacobs normally registers over 20 carries. When Las Vegas is playing from behind, Jacobs typically hovers around 15 rushing-attempts-per-game. This weekend, with the Raiders currently lined as nearly two-touchdown underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs, Jacobs is projected to amass approximately 15 carries on the day. At first, this may be very concerning, but it should lead to a suppressed percent-rostered number for Jacobs in GPPs on DraftKings this weekend. After accounting for Jacobs' expected increase in efficiency on his ~15 carries against Kansas City's run defense, he appears as one of the premier GPP options on this weekend's main slate of games at the running back position. Last season, Josh Jacobs averaged 4.8 yards-per-carry, gaining 0.81 yards-over-expectation-per-carry, meaning an "average" running back, as defined by the NFL Next Gen Stats team in their model, would have averaged approximately 3.99 yards-per-carry on an identical workload. This season, Jacobs averages just 3.6 yards per carry, posting 0.23 rushing-yards-under-expectation-per-carry. Jacobs' talent as a runner has not diminished whatsoever since last season, and his efficiency running the football can be reasonably expected to climb towards last year's mark of 4.8 yards-per-carry as the season progresses. Jacobs' price on DraftKings has steadily declined since his impressive season-opener against the Carolina Panthers. A trio of tough matchups paired with some bad luck around the end zone has hamstrung the second-year running back's fantasy viability in recent weeks. This weekend, Josh Jacobs is a must-start player in season-long formats despite his recent struggles, and he is one of the highest-upside contrarian running back options for DraftKings GPPs.

One thing to keep an eye on this weekend

In this new section, at the end of each #Trendspotting article, I will point to one particular trend that I see developing around the NFL and make note of how you can keep tabs on it that coming weekend or, for the more risk-tolerant players out there, how you can act on it now and potentially beat the field to a high-upside situation. On some occasions, I will point out a potential trend that I am skeptical will continue and on others I will point to a potential trend that I expect to come to fruition and provide actionable information down the line.

This weekend, let's keep an eye on whether or not the pace of Dallas' offense changes when they play with a lead. Through four weeks, the Dallas Cowboys have fielded the league's fastest offense. Dallas is calling a play, on average, every 19.95 seconds this season. The speed of this offense is partially due to the fact that they have found themselves playing from behind for the majority of the first month of their 2020 campaign-- the Cowboys are one of just 3 teams that have not run a single offensive play with a 7+ point lead this year. This weekend, the Dallas Cowboys are approximately 9.5-point favorites over the New York Giants, which should afford them the luxury of playing with a substantial lead for the first time under Mike McCarthy. McCarthy's newly-implemented analytically-driven approach to coaching this football team leads me to assume that the Cowboys will continue to play an up-tempo style of football, even with a lead, given the incredible assembly of talent they have throughout their offense. McCarthy should be aware that, especially in a matchup against a definitively-less-talented football team, like that of the New York Giants, his optimal strategy is to call as many plays as possible, giving his more-talented roster an increased number of opportunities to convert this talent advantage into an advantage on the scoreboard.

Potential trend to investigate or question to be answered this weekend: Does the Cowboys' offense slow down dramatically when they are playing with a significant lead for the first time under head coach Mike McCarthy?

Hypothesis: While it is impossible to expect Dallas to continue to stay under 20 seconds-per-play this season, especially when the Cowboys are playing with a lead, they should remain one of, if not the, fastest team(s) in the league.

What happens if the hypothesis is incorrect: If the Dallas Cowboys slow the game down once they get a lead, the passing game will suffer the most. A slower game typically accompanies a run-heavy offensive approach. If the hypothesis above is wrong, Ezekiel Elliott's rushing volume should increase dramatically and he could be in store for his first 100-yard rushing performance of the season.

Potential risk tolerant application of this hypothesis in Week 5: Utilize the Percent-Rostered Projections posted here at FootballGuys by Devin Knotts (a link will be included here once those projections are posted to the site) to identify the starters throughout Dallas' offense with the lowest percent-rostered projections. Gain leverage on the field by going overweight on these more-contrarian options in GPPs. A soft matchup against the dismal New York Giants defense should lead to a high-scoring afternoon for the Dallas Cowboys with plenty of opportunity to go around.

As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @StillZam with any questions, comments, or concerns about this article or anything that has to do with fantasy football this weekend.