Photo: Imagn Images

Introduction

This season, I have the privilege of filling in to write the weekly #Trendspotting article for Ryan Hester. First, I want to thank Ryan for all of the help he has given me by laying the framework for this piece and walking me through the process he has used to build out what is, in my opinion, one of the most insightful fantasy football articles out there. Be sure to give him a follow on Twitter and keep up with all the other work he does here at Footballguys.

For the first edition of #Trendspotting this season, given the inherent lack of data, this piece will go more in-depth on fewer aspects of offensive trends. Later in the season, once more data is available and more actionable trends reveal themselves, the article will return to its original form by peeling back the layers on a variety of actionable trends.

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

• All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2020 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Play-calling Preferences
• #Trending Upward

Play-calling Preferences

In this section, we'll look at how teams call plays. Because game script and red zone can skew pass-to-run ratios, the percentages below only show plays called when the game is within seven points in either direction and plays run between the 20s.

Passing

Commentary

• The Philadelphia Eagles were the most pass-heavy team in the NFL during Week 1, airing the ball out 74-percent of the time.
• The Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons followed closely behind Philadelphia, throwing the ball on approximately 69-percent of neutral-script plays.
• Seattle's offense shocked the masses by passing the ball on about 64-percent of neutral-script plays, a dramatic increase compared to last season.

Action Items

• The Seattle Seahawks finally acknowledged that allowing Russell Wilson, the MVP-caliber quarterback, to air the ball out early and often will only serve to benefit their offense. Seattle opting to throw the ball on approximately 64-percent of all neutral-script plays is a massive development in and of itself. Perhaps, more notably, the Seahawks threw the ball on all 11 2nd-and-long (8+ yards to go) plays during Week 1. Seattle's sudden change in play-calling tendencies, heavily utilizing the offense plethora of dynamic playmakers in the passing game should boost the entire offense's fantasy production. Confidently start Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Chris Carson in all season-long formats given this remarkable shift in play-calling tendencies, and consider the Seahawks as a high-upside stack in DFS (on either the Thursday-Monday or Primetime slates.)
• With a depleted backfield and offseason moves to bolster the receiving corps, the Philadelphia Eagles employed the most pass-heavy offensive attack in the NFL in Week 1. While Miles Sanders is hampered by a hamstring injury, forcing Boston Scott into the starting lineup, the Eagles will likely continue to lean heavily on this aerial attack to move the ball. Unfortunately, however, the offensive line is also depleted, as the Eagles are without three-fifths of their expected starting unit in the trenches. Should impact players like Miles Sanders and right tackle Lane Johnson miss this weekend's game, consider using the Los Angeles Rams' defense in lineups this weekend, as Aaron Donald and the Rams' defensive front are poised to dominate in the trenches against an offensive line that allowed a league-high eight sacks in the season opener.
• In a shocking Week 1 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Indianapolis Colts ran an exceptionally pass-heavy offense. This also aligned with the debut of Philip Rivers under-center, providing a significant improvement over last year's starter, Jacoby Brissett, as well as the game the Colts lost their starting running back, Marlon Mack, for the season to a torn Achilles. This combination of an upgrade at quarterback and being forced into unexpected playing time for the Colts' backup running backs fostered a very pass-happy approach to the game. While they may not finish atop the standings when the dust settles, these factors should help Indianapolis' offense rise up the ranks in terms of passing-rate in 2020, on the heels of a 2019 season where they ran the second-most run-heavy offense in neutral-script situations in the NFL. Parris Campbell has been anointed as the breakout player in the Colts' offense this season, and while he offers considerable upside, do not forget about T.Y. Hilton, the established veteran whose Week 1 production underwhelmed due to uncharacteristic drops. In a soft matchup against a porous Minnesota Vikings secondary, the Colts' aerial attack offers as much upside as any team in the league this weekend, making them an elite stack in GPPs.

Rushing

Commentary

• Unsurprisingly, the Baltimore Ravens continue to field the league’s most run-heavy offense, running the ball on two-thirds of their neutral-script plays in Week 1.

• The Los Angeles Rams fully utilized their deep stable of running backs in Week 1, as they ran the second-most run-heavy offense in the league in neutral-script situations.

• New England’s offense ran the ball on 58.3-percent of neutral-script plays in the 2020 season opener, with Cam Newton handling the lion’s share of the responsibilities rushing the football.

Action Items

• The Los Angeles Rams’ stable of running backs may be the deepest in the NFL, as they have invested two second-round picks in bolstering the unit across the last two NFL Drafts. Figuring out if they are run-heavy because they have running back depth or if they have running back depth because they want to be run-heavy is a fruitless “chicken or the egg?” thought exercise. Regardless, this shift towards the running game serves to benefit Cam Akers the most, as he is the highest-upside option of the group. While Malcolm Brown led the way in Week 1 with 20 scoring opportunities, Cam Akers’ ceiling of production dwarfs what Brown brings to the table. While an exceptionally difficult matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles should extend the buy-low window on Cam Akers for at least one more week, it will not last much longer beyond that. Consider pursuing a trade to get Cam Akers onto season-long fantasy rosters where you can afford to let him work his way up the depth chart on your bench or in a flex position in the short-term future before providing massive value to your team later in the season.
• New England’s head coach Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels proved in Week 1 of the 2020 season to be a group capable of making drastic adjustments to fit personnel while still finding success. This season, with Cam Newton taking over under-center for the recently-departed Tom Brady, the New England Patriots have opted for a more run-heavy offensive approach. This run-heavy offense will give Cam Newton a remarkable floor of production, making him a viable starter throughout the year in season-long formats. Additionally, the team’s aerial attack is being built around short, quick throws that Newton has proven capable of making regularly. Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry lead the way at wide receiver for the Patriots, but neither tallied more than 60 receiving yards or an average-depth-of-target over 9-yards in the season opener (just 1 pass traveled over 15 yards in the air for the Patriots in Week 1). Overall, New England pass-catchers are poised to drift out of fantasy relevancy this season, barring a drastic overhaul in how the Patriots try to move the ball down the field.
• Until Lamar Jackson’s price climbs closer to $9,000 on DraftKings, he will warrant consideration at quarterback on a weekly basis. At $8,200 against the Houston Texans this weekend, he is once again the premier option at the position in Baltimore’s run-heavy offense. Elsewhere in Baltimore’s backfield, however, there is a total lack of any floor of production that we want to fill out cash-game lineups with. J.K. Dobbins (39-percent), Mark Ingram (33-percent), and Gus Edwards (25-percent) split snaps almost evenly in Week 1 and, barring an injury sidelining one of the three players, they all will likely continue to play less-than half of Baltimore’s offensive snaps. Avoid this group in DFS until someone emerges and commands the majority of the work.

#Trending Upwards

This table includes the top 21 running backs and is sorted by the "Expected FPs/Gm" column.
"5 and In" = the total number of carries from the 5 yard-line and closer
"FPs/Gm" = DraftKings fantasy points per game played
"Exp. FPs/Gm" = (Targets x 1.59) + ((Total Carries - 5 and In) x 0.58) + (5 and In x 2.37)
"Expected vs. Actual" = a comparison of FPs/Gm and Exp. FPs/Gm calculated as follows (Exp. FPs/Gm - FPs/Gm) / FPs/Gm
Here, a positive number indicates a player with more Expected Fantasy Points than actual Fantasy Points. These players have high-value opportunities that indicate they could outperform year-to-date performance.

Commentary

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire topped the charts in Week 1 with an expected fantasy output of 28.4 DraftKings points. He reached this tally on the shoulders of six carries inside the five-yard line. Edwards-Helaire failed to convert any of those goalline carries into touchdowns, but he did manage to find the endzone on a 27-yard scamper en-route to a 22.8-DraftKings-point performance. Also, it is worth noting that the rookie still has room for growth in his fantasy production, as he failed to catch either of his two targets in Week 1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was an impressive contributor to LSU’s offense through the air during his final season in Baton Rouge, and he should eventually earn targets in Kansas City’s high-octane passing attack.

• Little has changed in Nashville, Tennesse, as the Titans’ offensive attack still runs through Derrick Henry, pun intended. Henry tallied a league-high 31 carries on Monday Night Football against the Denver Broncos, with 2 of those carries coming inside the 5-yard line. Even more exciting than Henry’s remarkably-consistent volume might be his growth in Tennessee’s passing attack. Henry set a career-high for routes run in a single game on Monday Night and, without Dion Lewis, there is room for improvement.

• As Josh Jacobs himself predicted, the second-year running back out of Alabama posted the most impressive receiving totals of his young career in Week 1, posting career-highs in routes run, targets, receptions, and receiving yards against the Carolina Panthers. Additionally, Jacobs’ rushing volume remained amongst the league-leaders on the ground. While he did outperform expectations in Week 1, thanks to a three-touchdown day, Josh Jacobs still ranked third in the NFL in expected fantasy production at the running back position. The sky is the limit for Jacobs this season.

• Saquon Barkley underperformed his expected fantasy production, given the profile of his involvement in New York’s offense, more than any other running back in the NFL during Week 1. In short, the Giants’ offensive line was completely overpowered and outmatched by the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defensive front. Barkley was constantly met in the backfield by defenders, and ultimately he ended his 2020 debut with single-digit rushing yards. Fortunately, Barkley is a multi-dimensional running back and he was able to command nine targets on the day to help salvage a somewhat-respectable fantasy performance. Expect Barkley to remain involved in this offense all season long under Jason Garrett, the team’s new play-caller, and once he gets a softer matchup than the Pittsburgh Steelers, he is poised to erupt.

• Peyton Barber is likely the most surprising name to appear towards the top of these rankings. Barber is clearly the short-distance running back of choice for Ron Rivera and the Washington Football Team. The presence of Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic in the backfield will limit Barber’s upside as a three-down back, and without nearly one-third of his touches coming inside the five-yard line, Barber would provide virtually no value in any format of fantasy football.

Action Items

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire is an RB1 this season, even if his role in the passing game does not develop as it is expected to. Given the fact that Kansas City is a significant favorite over the Los Angeles Chargers, Edwards-Helaire’s rushing totals should remain near the top of the charts in Week 2, with the untapped potential of his receiving prowess offering upside.

• Todd Gurley should be viewed as a high-end RB2 moving forward, especially this week against the Dallas Cowboys, who just got gashed on the ground by the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1. Gurley’s actual production lagged far behind his expected fantasy totals in Week 1, but given comparable opportunity in the offense, he should fly under-the-radar as a strong GPP option.

• Do not sound the alarms on Joe Mixon just yet, as a tough Week 1 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers limited his production in the season opener. His role in Cincinnati’s offense is solidified, and he remains a low-end RB1 or an elite RB2 in season-long formats. Playing on Thursday night, Mixon is not on the main slate of games on any DFS platforms, but he is viable in GPPs in the Thursday-through-Monday contests.

• Consider making an effort to acquire Kareem Hunt in season-long formats, if you do not already have him on your roster. In the immediate future, Hunt makes for a viable flex option on a weekly basis-- all trade offers for Hunt should be made in accordance with this valuation-- but, in the long-term, Hunt has league-winning potential. Nick Chubb got the bulk of the early work in Week 1, but Kareem Hunt played the majority of the second half of the game, especially once the game was out of reach, ultimately leading to a near 50-50 split in total snaps between the two players. Any concrete projection for neutral-script snaps in Cleveland’s backfield is purely guesswork at this point in time, but Hunt’s upside is undeniable. Should Chubb miss any time this season due to injury, Hunt instantly rockets up the rankings from a viable flex option to a high-end RB1 in season-long fantasy football.

• Ronald Jones II is a top-tier GPP option in Week 2 when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play host to a young Carolina defense. Jones tallied 20 total scoring opportunities in the season opener, despite being a part of a crowded backfield alongside LeSean McCoy and Leonard Fournette. Jones’ involvement in the offense resembles that of a high-upside player, while his actual production lagged far behind. Expect the lack of production in Week 1 to suppress his percent-rostered total in GPPs in Week 2, while the underlying numbers show he is poised for a breakout performance.

As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions, comments or concerns about the article (or with any fantasy football questions I can help out with) and I'll be sure to get you a helpful response as quickly as possible!

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